Perhaps the hardest decision for this countdown was not our decision who to place on top, but rather who would qualify. Once we agreed our chart-topper still counts as a prospect (it wasn’t a very hard decision, he’ll hopefully spend most of the year at AAA), there was little debate as to who should come first. Jenrry Mejia, come on down.
The 21-year-old fireballer has come an awfully long way since last year’s spring training, when I spent a significant amount of time trying to verify whether he spelled his name with 2 “r”s or 2 “l”s (there were huge discrepancies in the reports coming out of St. Lucie at the time). In a sense 2010 was a lost year for Mejia, with the first few months spent in the big league bullpen in some kind of frantic maneuver to save both his manager and GM’s jobs. Mejia’s bullpen placement isn’t too strange a decision: he doesn’t have very strong secondary offerings, and has drawn comparisons to Mariano Rivera, but the under-utilization of Mejia out of the bullpen when he could have at least tested his mettle as a starter in the minors, was clearly a blunder on the part of the Minaya administration.
Luckily, Mejia eventually found his way into the starter’s role in the minors. He struggled a bit with a shoulder injury that caused him to miss some significant time, but once his health improved he spun 6 sparkling starts in AA to earn a 1.32 ERA, an an 8 inning, 1 run performance in his Buffalo debut earned his return to the majors, this time as a starter. Mejia’s 3 starts in New York were unspectacular, as he struggled with his command and then another shoulder injury, not to mention strict pitch counts. The injuries are fairly concerning for Mejia, but he arrived to St. Lucie this year fully healthy, and looked solid in his first outing of the spring.
Mejia’s value is obscured heavily by the starter-reliever question that is likely to be debated for the next few years, but I think that debate does him a disservice. There is no question in my mind that with Mejia’s dynamic fastball (sits 94 with a ton of movement that can make it pretty heavy) and his developing secondary pitches that Mejia can be a passable 4- or 5-spot major league pitcher. The only question in my mind is whether the secondary pitches can develop to the point where he will be a top-of-the-rotation starter, or whether he will have to slip into the closer’s role. The ability to throw a straighter, harder fastball that sits in the upper 90s and a mid-90s fastball with more movement tells me that with the command that comes with experience (remember, the kid has been able to drink for 4 months now) will make Mejia a dominant bullpen option if the secondary stuff doesn’t come along.
That’s what 2011 is for (or rather, that’s what 2010 should have been for). A full season working on the off-speed pitches should give us a better idea of just how good Mejia is; in particular, the comparisons to Pedro Martinez (mostly based on build and demeanor, as well as the electric fastball) have me hoping he’ll work on the change-up in addition to the curveball he favored in the majors. The season will be spent in AAA, barring any setbacks, and a big-league call-up is entirely possible depending on the development of his secondary pitches and the health of the big-league rotation. His health will remain a slight concern as he continues to add innings, particularly as a small pitcher, but his relatively straightforward delivery doesn’t flash any warning signs (and really, considering Tim Lincecum’s longevity thus far, I am not too worried about small pitchers even with weird motions).
But mostly, Jenrry Mejia is a pitcher to watch just to enjoy pitching, and that’s why he tops the list. We want him to be starter more because we want to spend more time watching him pitch than simply because we think he’ll be good (although trust me, he will). While yes, there are some refinements to be made to his secondary offerings, the real learning will be in learning how to pitch, rather than how to execute. As a baseball fan who would give anything to have a fastball like Mejia’s I’ve found a remarkable joy in watching him figure out what to do with it. I plan on doing that every chance I get this summer, and I suggest you do too.
9 comments
stickguy
2/28/2011-7:12pm at 7:12 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t think there ever really was a question. He is a SP, always has been, and will be until he proved that he can’t handle it.
Just because Jerry was an idiot last year, and he convinced smoeone else in the organization to go along with his scheme, doesn’t make Mejia a RP.
also not worried that he isn’t big enough to make it past 30 (not that it stopped David Cone). If he is up in the next couple years, he would be hitting FA anyway by the time he is 28. So as long as the mets get the good, cheap years, I can live with him being done by 30, on someone elses dime!
metsfan4decades
2/28/2011-8:36pm at 8:36 pm (UTC -4)
So if I’m understanding you correctly Max, he projects to be a good 4/5 starter, not sure about a top of rotation starter and if he doesn’t have the tools for top of the rotation, he might be better served in relief? Possibly this generations Mariano Rivera?
It will be interesting to see his development through the first couple of seasons in the majors. If I remember correctly, Mo started out as a starter as well. Billy Wagner, a pitcher on the small side with high heat was quoted as saying something similar to ‘I’m a closer b/c I didn’t have the repertoire to be a good starter. Basically, I stunk’.
Either way with Mejia, I’m hoping we’re looking at something special.
TRS86
2/28/2011-8:41pm at 8:41 pm (UTC -4)
MOST of the time a #4 starter is still better than a closer. I would keep him there until there is no chance otherwise.
metsfan4decades
2/28/2011-8:44pm at 8:44 pm (UTC -4)
Ah…sounds reasonable. I too think SP is a rare commodity these days. Hard to find decent arms for the back end of the rotation who are healthy and can give you 200 innings.
TRS86
2/28/2011-8:52pm at 8:52 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah unless you are a lights out closer with a ton of experience you are not getting the 10M+ deals. Where as a guy like Garland makes a great living being a #4.
metsfan4decades
2/28/2011-8:43pm at 8:43 pm (UTC -4)
http://origin.nydailynews.com/blogs/mets/2011/02/pelfrey-loses-important-mentor?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+nydnrss%2Fblogs%2Fmets+%28Blogs%2FSurfing+the+Mets%29
wow – sad.
Must be nice to have someone on your payroll that you have direct access to and call up every time you pitch and/or have a bad game. I have to say, if peons such as myself had this available, I’m sure respective spouses everywhere would love it. Bad day? Instead of swiping at your better half, call up the psychologist and vent to your hearts content. LOL….
stickguy
2/28/2011-8:48pm at 8:48 pm (UTC -4)
not many 4/5 starters have a dominating 94 mph FB with movement though. Even basically normal 2ndart pitches (and he has shown pretty goods ones in flashes) project him higher than that.
Gee,he projects as a 4/5 at best.
even a solid mid-rotation guy (a 3? really good 4?) is harder to find than a RP.
TRS86
2/28/2011-8:53pm at 8:53 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed on that. Solid mid-rotation guys cost 3/36, not many relievers getting that and when they do they are most likely grossly overpaid.
Max
2/28/2011-9:54pm at 9:54 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah I wouldn’t say he projects as a 4/5 guy, I’d say that the bare minimum for him is a 4/5 guy or a late-inning bullpen role, probably closing. The 4/5 role is sort of a strange fit for Mejia because you expect those guys to throw a ton of innings, and for Mejia if he’s throwing a ton of inning it means he’s really successful with that hard sinking fastball, and therefore you’d expect him at the top of the rotation. So realistically, if he doesn’t develop to the point that he’s at the top of the rotation, he’s a 5-6 inning guy in the 4/5 spot, maybe a more consistent John Maine, so if that’s the case I think he might be more valued as a closer.
That said, I think this is the very worst case scenario, and I mainly fixate on it to make the point that this is a pretty good worst case scenario to have.