Coming into camp, perhaps the biggest question mark was who was going to be the Mets everyday second baseman. There is no shortage of candidates. At last count, there was Castillo, Murphy, Emaus, Turner, and possibly even Tejada (and don’t forget that Hu and even Willie Harris in a pinch can also play second). And of course, there are various permutations with platoons and minor league options and so forth.
I’ve often wondered how teams make sensible evaluations during spring training “battles.” From a young age, fans learn that Spring Training stats don’t matter. Further, how much can really be gleaned from watching players in drills? In reality, what must go on is that teams go into the Spring with a set of notions as to what they’d like to see and then find evidence from the assorted Spring activities to confirm those notions.
Let’s take a look at what baseball prospectus has to say about the various choices using my favorite overall offensive comparison tool, TAv (which as a reminder is a measure of total offensive value that incorporates baserunning and where overall league average is .260). The TAv’s are 2011 projections:
Murphy–.267
Emaus—.259
Castillo–.241
Turner–.252
Tejada–.216
On projected offense alone, Murphy gets the job. Of course, this is not a tryout for designated hitter and the gap between Murph and Emaus offensively isn’t that great. It’s possible Emaus’ defense makes him the overall better choice. And, Murphy could make the Mets as a utility guy or even get optioned to Triple-A. In contrast, Emaus has to be offered back to the Blue Jays if he doesn’t make the team.
But wait, Emaus bats right-handed and Murphy left. So platoon them! There’s certainly some support for doing so. Murphy’s line against righties in 2009: .275/.324/.430. In triple-A, last year Emaus actually struggled against lefties, hitting only .206/.333/.365, but those numbers may be anomalous because he actually crushed lefties in winter ball to a .448/.515/.690 tune.
However, things aren’t quite that simple. For one thing, if the Mets platoon Emaus and Murphy at second, that almost certainly means that Nick Evans won’t make the team. And neither Emaus or Murphy is stellar with the glove, meaning neither guy would be an ideal late-inning defensive replacement – that will probably Hu’s job.
Evans, for what it’s worth, is projected to have a higher TAv than either Murph or Emaus — .269. In this scenario, the Mets could keep Evans and Murphy and use Hu as a defensive replacement and occasional starter against lefties. Indeed, Hu hit lefties in triple-A at a .435/.452/.594 clip. That scenario’s only problem is that it means Emaus must be offered back to the Jays. Thus, if Murphy flops at second, the Mets are stuck with Turner as the only player left in the organization capable of playing second on an everyday basis.
What’s the ideal solution? I think it has to be sending Murph down to Triple-A to begin the year. This would allow him to get more reps at second and allow the Mets to get a real-time evaluation of whether Emaus can be an everyday big leaguer. The Mets can keep Emaus and Evans for now and make a more informed decision going forward as the season progresses.
This would mean Evans is the backup for Ike and Wright. Hu is the back-up middle infielder and the everyday starting second baseman will be Emaus. That leaves Willie Harris the only left-handed bat on the bench for some games, although with Beltran and Thole both having regular days off, that problem is mitigated somewhat.
Overall, this is a nice problem to have and short of picking Luis at second, a set of choices the Mets really can’t mess up.
36 comments
Mr North Jersey
3/5/2011-2:55pm at 2:55 pm (UTC -4)
Has there ever been so much difficulty who will win the 2b job?
kingman 26
3/5/2011-3:16pm at 3:16 pm (UTC -4)
Emaus has never played one major league game.
How can projections of a player with zero MLB time mean anything when compared to those for Murph, who had a decent full year in the majors?
Triple A numbers may be anomalous based on a few weeks of winter ball?
Emaus is the solution over Murphy and Castillo?
No, he’s not.
metsfan2011
3/5/2011-3:17pm at 3:17 pm (UTC -4)
Kingman, by your logic a rookie could never start over an established major leaguer. How could Ike Davis be the answer over Mike Jacobs?
stickguy
3/5/2011-4:04pm at 4:04 pm (UTC -4)
I think his point was that the tav # was pure guess work for someone that only played part of a year above AA, and has no ML time.
might as well look at Havens # too.
kingman 26
3/5/2011-4:09pm at 4:09 pm (UTC -4)
My TAV projection for this comment is + 1000
metsfan2011
3/5/2011-3:16pm at 3:16 pm (UTC -4)
I certainly can’t think of any open position that was truly this wide open in Mets camp with as any credible candidates.
stickguy
3/5/2011-4:08pm at 4:08 pm (UTC -4)
I like being able to hang onto evans for now. But, you get the same outcome having Murphy win the job, with Hu on the bench fordefensive replacement use when needed.
Emaus is a nice guy to have, but he is not sure thing. Frankly, Turner has shown more in the minors so far (last year in AAA, his OPS vs. LHP was over 1.00). And he has a little ML service time.
I understand wanting to hoard talent, but if Murphy wins the job, Emaus really has no role on the team. And if he goes back, they have turner in reserve, with (hopefully) Havens ready soon too.
I really don’t see Emaus showing enough “wow” stuff in ST to cement the job.
TRS86
3/5/2011-4:13pm at 4:13 pm (UTC -4)
Stick don’t you think there is a reason that neither regime seems to like Turner?
stickguy
3/5/2011-4:41pm at 4:41 pm (UTC -4)
I honestly don’t know what the current group thinks about him, other than he has options! Collins said a few nice things about him.
I really have no clue what the Omar clan was doing with him. Maybe freezing out Wayne K?
never really saw enough of him to judge his fielding, but I do know the guy crushed RH pitching in the minors, and can play SS.
as long as they keep him, even if in AAA, while the rest sort themselves out, nothing lost I guess.
stickguy
3/5/2011-4:11pm at 4:11 pm (UTC -4)
also, ST really isn’t enough time to “prove” who wins the job. Like you said, they make a plan in advance (like the much maigned comments about planning to start Tejada in AAA), then use ST to validate them. so barring injuries, or one of the dark horses absolutely destroying the other choices, they go with the plan. Even if that means a guy who may not have had the best ST still gets the job.
they do factor in drills, practice, previous history. And of course, contract status.
TRS86
3/5/2011-4:15pm at 4:15 pm (UTC -4)
It’s about keeping as many of these guys in the system as possible so perhaps if they release Castillo then you do platoon Murphy and Emaus. You also have to look at could you keep Emaus by trading something useless to the Jays? Hey maybe you even trade Evans to the Jays to keep Emaus in AAA? Not sure how it will end up working.
metsfan2011
3/5/2011-4:30pm at 4:30 pm (UTC -4)
the possibility of a trade to the Jays to keep Emaus is something I thought of too. In particular, I thought the Mets should make the offer now, when the Jays don’t know if the Mets want to keep Emaus or not. That may keep the price for Emaus down. Of course, that runs the risk of giving someone to the Jays when you might end up keeping Emaus on the big league roster anyway, but that seems a small price to pay for a guy you got for free in the first place.
stickguy
3/5/2011-4:45pm at 4:45 pm (UTC -4)
Just hard to tell if Emaus is really that valuable a commodity that you have to worry about it. if not, what’s the big deal? Just pick him (or his equivilant, like when they got turner) off the waiver wire or some other teams minors when you need him.
There is also the chance of sneaking him through. Just because they offer him back to the Jays, does not mean they have to take him.
so you wait to the last possible 2nd, and if the Jays already have their 40 man roster full, they may not want to release someone else to pick him back up (paying 25K in the process!)
njstuckintx
3/5/2011-4:44pm at 4:44 pm (UTC -4)
Murphy has the most polished bat of all those options. If he’s not the starting 2B or at least in platoon, he’s best suited as super sub/PH option off the bench. AAA is not where he belongs. If sending Emaus back happens, oh well.
stickguy
3/5/2011-4:47pm at 4:47 pm (UTC -4)
it depends on how he looks.
If they think he potentially can be a legit ML 2B, but he just needs a few months to a year of intense practice, coaching and playing every day, then AAA makes sense.
If they think he has pretty much ceilinged already, as a guy that can do it in short batches, but will never develop enough to be an everyday starter, then might as well keep him as a bench guy.
njstuckintx
3/5/2011-4:52pm at 4:52 pm (UTC -4)
He’s proven he can hit MLB pitching, and has learned 3 positions in 2 years. At the worst, he’s a bench guy. At this point, he’s a learn on the job kind of guy.
njstuckintx
3/5/2011-4:53pm at 4:53 pm (UTC -4)
OK, maybe not “learned”, but he did play 1B very well.
metsfan4decades
3/5/2011-4:57pm at 4:57 pm (UTC -4)
I’m inclined to agree with you here. If it’s a choice between losing Evans and sending Emaus back, I’d rather they send Emaus back.
In a nutshell, the problem is none of our options for 2nd base are all that great right now. Either they leave something to be desired defensively, or if good defensively, the offense isn’t great.
stickguy
3/5/2011-4:51pm at 4:51 pm (UTC -4)
The Murphy debate reminds me of another hotly debated topic: Pagan as the 4th OF.
IMO, murphy as a bench jack of all trades guy would be a very, very good bench player. Much better than most of what they have run out there recently. And in the way, if they end up with another starting OF that is better, having Pagan as the 4th OF (playing probably 5 days a week anyway) would be a huge boost. Now of course, just need to find the other starting OF, which now would have to play CF! But really, him as #4 was more based on when Beltran was still going to be the CF.
I think my point is, having very good, even starting quality, players ont eh bench is actually a good thing!
njstuckintx
3/5/2011-5:18pm at 5:18 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed.
Be it Reyes, Pagan, Wright, Beltran, Davis, Bay, Murphy, Thole, Pitcher with Paulino, Harris, Hu, Evans & whomever or…
Reyes, Pagan, Wright, Beltran, Davis, Bay, Emaus, Thole, Pitcher with Paulino, Harris, Murphy, Evans, Hu…
Having Emaus as the whomever in the first spot isn’t horrible. 2 BU IF & 2 BU OF + CA. That’s pretty much what you run with, so at this point, unless there are some surprises (castillo making the team) or injuries, I actually see both on the team.
metsfan4decades
3/5/2011-5:30pm at 5:30 pm (UTC -4)
Dominick Brown out with a broken hand.
‘Brown has a fractured hook of the hamate bone, which will likely require surgery.’
I just keep crossing my fingers we can get through one ST here with no Red Cross posts.
metsfan4decades
3/5/2011-5:32pm at 5:32 pm (UTC -4)
Ruben Amaro Jr. told CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury that Chase Utley’s right knee hasn’t improved and there is still no timetable for his return. The Phillies GM also suggested that Utley could be experiencing be more than tendinitis. Utley’s predicament is, by far, the Phillies top issue a week into camp.
Yup….just keep that injury bug down the Turnpike.
metsfan2011
3/5/2011-5:59pm at 5:59 pm (UTC -4)
I like Murphy but I’m surprised people believe he’s a “proven” hitter. In his only full season in the big leagues, he had a .313 OBP. And, for what it’s worth, he has even less Triple-A experience than Emaus.
njstuckintx
3/5/2011-6:03pm at 6:03 pm (UTC -4)
i’d put MLB exp over AAA any day of the week. Now, Muph’s OBP isn’t stellar to this point, but I’d be inclined to believe in someone who’s shown he can hit at the MLB level vs. someone who has yet to swing a stick at said MLB level. Call me crazy, i guess.
metsfan2011
3/5/2011-6:15pm at 6:15 pm (UTC -4)
my whole point is that murphy hasn’t shown he’s a good hitter at the big league level. If your OBP is that low, you aren’t a good hitter.
njstuckintx
3/5/2011-6:20pm at 6:20 pm (UTC -4)
What OBP =’s good hitter?
metsfan2011
3/5/2011-6:28pm at 6:28 pm (UTC -4)
I would say at least .350
stickguy
3/5/2011-7:04pm at 7:04 pm (UTC -4)
2009 was a really odd year for him. besides moving positions on the field, he seemed to be trying to be something he wasn’t with the bat. In the minors, he had increased his OBP every year, to a pretty good .379 in 2008, followed up by a .390+ in his Mets stint.
and remember, his big calling card was working pitchers, and being patient to take walks.
But, in 2009, suddenly he was at 1B on a weak hitting team, and the wailing was loud about needing more HRs, and more power especially out of 1B. So, reading the tea leaves maybe (you want to stay, better jack some homers) he started swinging more, and trying to do it.
Hey, might not have been many, but he did lead the team!
now, was the .313 OBP a by product of that? Or just how good he really is? Not sure. BUt my guess is that he will do better than that if he gets settled into the 7 hole with an everyday job.
now, if it makes you feel any better, after his first 2 years (and 200 ABs), A Gon’s OBP was a snappy .272!
stickguy
3/5/2011-7:06pm at 7:06 pm (UTC -4)
wonder how long that will keep him out?
And didn’t F Mart have his hamate (the useless bone) removed a few years ago?
THey are already whistling past the graveyard about Utley, since the tendonitis has not been getting better even with rest.
but, they have 4 aces, so they will win 100 even if they have to start 8 wilson Valdez’s, right?
Prismo
3/5/2011-7:21pm at 7:21 pm (UTC -4)
I haven’t even seen anyone call Murphy a good or proven hitter, so I’m confused about this.
All I’ve seen said is that Murphy has proven he can hit better than Castillo, which I believe he has. And he’s still young, should get a little better if given the playing time.
metsfan4decades
3/5/2011-7:35pm at 7:35 pm (UTC -4)
Just about anyone should be able to hit better than Castillo at this point in his career. Castillo is good for a walk and possibly a slap hit.
Not sure about Emaus but at least Murph has a little pop in his bat.
IMO, since all the candidates leave a little something to be desired at this point, it really won’t bother me who they go with – as long as it isn’t Castillo.
And really, whoever plays there this year, hopefully it’s just a place holder for Havens.
Prismo
3/5/2011-7:27pm at 7:27 pm (UTC -4)
Also, finally some karma is kicking in with these Phillies’ injuries.
Utley has tendinitis and got a cortisone shot in his knee, he’s 32.
Does that remind you of anyone? Oh, say, a Mets center fielder a couple years ago?
Brown probably need surgery and will be out at least a month, and may not be at full strength for a year.
I don’t think the Phillies are very deep right now, due to all the trades over the past couple years.
Their offense might suffer!!
hazmet
3/5/2011-8:48pm at 8:48 pm (UTC -4)
This morning when I saw that Utley had the cortisone injection the first thing that came to mind was that with the run off for the Mets 2B position whoever doesn’t get the job will get released, picked up by the Phils, and then go onto have an All Star MVP type season. Just because, well, that would be typical Met luck.
metsfan4decades
3/5/2011-10:08pm at 10:08 pm (UTC -4)
You mean like Wilson Valdez? LOL….
Nah…I don’t think he was any better filling in at SS for Rollins than Cora was for us, just younger.
Well, the Phils are more than welcome to Castillo when we release him. That would be a big drop in production from Utley.
Don’t think there’s anyone else we could lose, other than Evans and he doesn’t play 2nd base.
hazmet
3/6/2011-9:23am at 9:23 am (UTC -4)
Specifically, we don’t hold on to Eamus and have to return him and then he’s traded to Philths and becomes Utley 2.0. Granted, Eamus hasn’t done anything in the bigs but when they picked him in Rule 5 the reach was to try and bill him as an Uggla in the risk reward area. Underline “reach” in that last sentence.
Castillo, is shot but it would be typical that if he ended up there he’d be slappariffic and with the short fence in LF pop a couple of dingers just to rub it in. I don’t even know why he’s getting reps at 2B anymore as they should just clear him out of the way and get the other guys their work and move on.
metsfan4decades
3/5/2011-8:02pm at 8:02 pm (UTC -4)
On another note, I just finished reading the article by Steve Fishman in New York magazine on Madoff:
Am I a Sociopath?
Fascinating reading, to say the least. Madoff started calling this Fishman collect to get his side of the story out there. I don’t know about sociopath (as I’m far from qualified to make that determination), but narcissistic is what stood out for me reading this. After the crash of 1987, many of his big clients bailed out on him and he said, ‘they betrayed me’.
Wonder if he gets the correlation? He goes on to say while everyone was getting rich off him, he was suffering – it was a nightmare for ONLY him, knowing what he was doing when no one else did, and no one to share the burden with.
He goes on to say he raised enough flags that it should have been obvious to even the unsophisticated investor. ‘Everyone was greedy. I just went along with it.’
Absolutely amazing to think he got away with this for as long as he did.