" Yeah we might have to endure one more season with "Slappy " !!!"
Well there is only two and a half weeks before the Mets break Spring training, starting their season against the Florida Marlins in Miami. I know many of you are not going to like what I am about to say , but in my opinion it looks like Luis Castillo will be on the Mets roster come Opening Day. First off even though I do not care much for Slappy , I would embrace him making the team rather that The ” Sultan of Suckitude ” ( or as he is more affectionately known as these days ” Dead Scrub Walking“), Oliver Perez. Why you may ask me. Well first off no one else has risen above the competition for second base. Not Brad Eamus, not Justin Turner, and even though he is hitting well Daniel Murphy’s defense thus far has been atrocious. That’s not to say that Luis has reverted back to his old All Star form, his range has eroded considerably – but he does have a familiarity with Jose Reyes that helps when it comes to turning a double play. Luis is still useful in a limited role – whether it is in a platoon situation with Murph or as a late inning defensive replacement. Luis has shown that he wants to be here – unlike his partner in mediocrity- Oliver Perez. I believe Ollie will be given two to three chances in the bullpen before Spring training ends before he is released sometime next week.
In my opinion there is no way that this front office can justify with a straight face how Perez can be on the roster this season. Last year he was the proverbial white flag, to be trotted out when there was no chance in hell of stealing a win out of the jaws of defeat. I believe that the front office will take the gamble of keeping one of these two players, and if Luis is still struggling by mid season, and either Turner or Tejada are playing well in Buffalo , then Castillo will be released.
So here are my predictions on how the 2011 Opening Day roster will shake out.
1B. Ike Davis
2B. Luis Castillo
SS. J0se Reyes
3B. David Wright
C. Josh Thole
LF. Jason Bay
CF. Angel Pagan
RF. Carlos Beltran
Starting Rotation
Mike Pelfrey
R.A Dickey
Jon Neise
Chris Young
Chris Capuano
Bullpen
Pedro Beato
Taylor Tankersly
Tim Byrdak
Jason Isringhausen
Bobby Parnell
Francisco Rodriguez
Bench
Daniel Murphy
Ronnie Paulino ( Mike Nickeas for the first 8 games)
Scott Hairston
Willie Harris
Nick Evans
Lucas Duda
Do you agree/disagree ? Speak your mind in the comments section. By the wa I will be as bold to say that I believe the Mets will win between 85-88 games this season.
And with that said….. HERE COMES THE INFAMY !!!!
Current and former Mets alumni celebrating a birthday today include :
Reserve outfielder from’66-’67, Al Luplow is 72 (1939).
Utility man from the ’65 season, Gary Kolb is 71 (1940) .
One of the most under appreciated men to ever wear a Mets uniform, pitcher Terry Leach is 57 (1954) .
Mets third base coach from the ’08 season, Luis Aguayo is 52 (1959).
Back up catcher from the ’98 season,Jorge Fabregas is 41(1970).
Our once and future ace, Johan Santana is 32 (1979). I hope that all reports of Johan having a major setback are false.
The New York Mets traded middle reliever, Mardie Cornejo to the Detroit Tigers for middle reliever – and one time Shea Stadium vendor, Ed Glynn on March 13, 1979.
The Detroit Tigers claimed reserve outfielder, Shane Halter of the New York Mets on waivers on March 13, 2000.
And while you are jonesing to see baseball games that actually mean something, just remember that there are just 19 Bobby Ojeda days remaining until the Mets open the 2011 season against the Florida Marlins in Miami, and only 26 more days until the Mets 2011 home opener against the Washington Nationals at Citi Field.
Instead of saying a black cloud follows the Mets , I propose that we say a Mo Vaughn Follows the Mets – same difference !!!
42 comments
hazmet
3/13/2011-10:36am at 10:36 am (UTC -4)
It certainly is looking like everything’s coming up Luis. I posted a similar take on the situation aoout a week or so ago wrapped around Murp just not being a second baseman. Hopefully he keeps up the work and at somepoint this year it starts to click and we can bid Slappy farewell. I don’t see it though, even though he has improved.
I’m also starting to think we are not going to see Carlos anytime soon. In fact, I’m starting to think he might be done. If so, I like seeing that bench makeup. I can definitely get behind that bench going into battle. It’s a nice mix of experience and youth and position versatility.
As for Ollie, I guess you may not have seen that he’s actually a legal genius and that’s why he’s been kept on board to strategize and match wits against Picard in the clawback litigation. That’s about the only reason I can come up with that he’s still on the team.
rustyjr
3/13/2011-10:38am at 10:38 am (UTC -4)
carlos might dh today in the b game
hazmet
3/13/2011-10:43am at 10:43 am (UTC -4)
Well that is encouraging. I wonder who will run for him if he hits the ball. That was the most disturbing part of the status they conveyed this week out of camp: “He can do everything but run”.
I almost fell out of my chair when I heard that. Imagine if Omar was still around and he said that, oh my what fun we’d be having.
All & all, I like the way this camps shaped up. Terry’s run a nice camp and I never get to excited by individual performances as guys are getting there work in and I have no idea what they may have been told to work on or experiment with in ST. I only get really concerned with physical issues like Carlos working to get on the field and Luis unfortunately being able to stay on the field.
rustyjr
3/13/2011-10:54am at 10:54 am (UTC -4)
Like I said call me crazy but I think the Mets will end the season with a winning record
hazmet
3/13/2011-11:09am at 11:09 am (UTC -4)
I’d never call you crazy, that would be like the pot calling the kettle black, lol. I agree on your record but I think it will be built on the change in Manager’s and transition to youth continuing with Ike in his second year, Thole behind the plate, and maybe Duda grabbing RF and being a mini-Dunn. If Carlos can stay healthy and be even a portion of what he was in the past all the better.
Heck they won 79 games with Jerry & injuries I’d think 85 would be possible just by staying healthier and no Jerry even without Johan given we’ve added Young & Capuano.
ajgmets
3/13/2011-2:21pm at 2:21 pm (UTC -4)
If the current version of the 2011 Mets manages to win 83 games without any major shake ups or acquisitions, I’ll take it in a heartbeat.
As of this morning’s latest news regarding free agent to be Carlos Beltran, I am cautiously hopeful that we’ll see the “unselfish” right fielder be able to “actively” participate in 70-80 regular season games. I see a realistic scenario where he begins the season on the DL, goes to extended spring training, stringing the club along until he feels 100%, which could well be in May or June. He then miraculously is able to play relatively well through the balance of the season although not well enough to generate any significant trade interest and thus plays out the balance of the season and takes his rejuvenated body and talents to the free agent market leaving the Mets and we fans to debunk his “team first” attitude next season as he plays some RF and DH while hitting 40 HRs for the Angels.
As for the roster on April 1, 2011
1. C Josh Thole
2. 1B Ike Davis
3. 2B Brad Emaus (I think the club will be fearful to lose the Rule 5 draftee back to Toronto since he came so highly recommended by JP Ricciardi)
4. 3B David Wright
5. SS Jose Reyes
6. OF Jason Bay
7. OF Angel Pagan
8. OF Scott Hairston
9. OF Lucas Duda
10. C Mike Nickeas
11. Util IF Chin lung Hu
12. Util Daniel Murphy
13. OF Willie Harris
14. Util Nick Evans (Again, fear of losing him via waivers as he’s out of options)
15. Pelfrey
16. Dickey
17. Niese
18. Young
19. Capuano
20. Rodriguez
21. Parnell
22. Acosta
23. Buchholz
24. Carrasco
25. Igarashi
kistics
3/13/2011-10:55am at 10:55 am (UTC -4)
What about Hu?
darknova306
3/13/2011-11:22am at 11:22 am (UTC -4)
I see Beltran on the DL with Duda in RF to start the season. And anything the team gets out of Santana at all this year will be a bonus. I don’t expect him back before September at the earliest, which is fine with me as long as they’re taking every precaution to get him on the field healthy in 2012.
They win 78-82 games, in my opinion (as long as we’re making predictions)
oleosmirf
3/13/2011-11:31am at 11:31 am (UTC -4)
unless Emaus starts to hit it looks like he is going to be sent back to Toronto with Castillo once again being the starting 2B. I can live with Castillo as long as he is batting .290+ but we better pray Reese Havens stays healthy and can be here by August/Sept.
you forgot Hu so he’ll be there instead of Nick the Stick and Carrasco has a guaranteed contract so he’s on the team regardless. Tankersley is not making the team as he’s struggled in ST and Acosta or Isringhausen will join the team as the 7th reliever when Duda gets sent down…
rustyjr
3/13/2011-11:39am at 11:39 am (UTC -4)
Hu hasn’t impressed me
oleosmirf
3/13/2011-12:51pm at 12:51 pm (UTC -4)
he’s a lock to make the team though. Only guy other than Reyes that can play SS and is out of options.
njstuckintx
3/13/2011-11:35am at 11:35 am (UTC -4)
Flippin’ Castillo. Hopefully he’ll bat eighth. Prefer to see him bat 10th…
I’m also thrilled to see the ‘Castillo Shift”, a la bring in the CF to play short field, because the odds of him hitting it over someone’s head is a large as the Fred not having to pay anything on the Madoff Mess.
kingman 26
3/13/2011-12:12pm at 12:12 pm (UTC -4)
Well my friend, 85–88 wins?
I think this team is going to be a disaster and win 75–78 if that.
Capuano and Young are going to be disasters, 2B will provide nothing either offensively or defensively or both, Bay will probably be a lot closer to the 2010 Bay than the 2009 Bay, Beltran is going to play less than expected, the bullpen is a crapshoot with potential (which will matter little if the starters and offense are as bad as it looks like they’ll be), and if we don’t see huge seasons from Wright, Reyes, Pagan, Pelfrey and Dickey, with good years as well from Ike, Niese and Thole, we may give the Nats a run for last.
Not looking good at all.
I will be watching, watching the kids and AAA, and as long as Collins has them hustling and focused, I will enjoy 2011.
But I definitely see another 4th place finish.
rustyjr
3/13/2011-12:17pm at 12:17 pm (UTC -4)
I see you’re in a positive mood today I’d friend lol
kingman 26
3/13/2011-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
Oh, I am!
I am actually thrilled the season begins on a Friday night—I always have people over to eat and drink and watch opening day, and as it is a Friday night, it will be much more fun and festive.
I cannot wait to see Thole play every day, I cannot wait to see if Ike and Niese are for real, and I really think Pelf might finally have arrived. I also think KRod is going to be excellent. And I love what I see from Collins so far.
But even if Dickey repeats 2010, Young and Capuano have not been healthy and good for 4–5 years. It is a joke to expect them to do anything of significance. I also think Bay is probably done as a serious threat, and I am not the world’s biggest Pagan fan. Beltran?
But overall, I am very psyched to see a Collins-led team hustle and lay the groundwork for the future, without Slappy and Beltran for starters.
And you know what? I think the thing I am most focused on is seeing if Jose can rebound to the 2006–2008 Jose.
If he does, I am 100% sure the team will re-sign him whatever it costs.
How’s THAT for reasonable, healthy, optimism from a serious fan??
rustyjr
3/13/2011-12:56pm at 12:56 pm (UTC -4)
I’ll take it lol
metsfan4decades
3/13/2011-3:13pm at 3:13 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t normally do W/L predictions before the season starts. Too hard to predict, the season is too long, anything can happen. I will go on record saying I think they win more games than last year.
That being said, Castillo might make the team out of the gate if for no other reason than by default. And I think that’s a shame. We know what he is, which is a player on the downside of his career. This isn’t a powerhouse team right now that can afford to carry his light bat. His range is diminished. So what’s the point? Let the kids play. But I’m sure that won’t be the direction they go in.
Beltran? Won’t surprise me if he starts the year on the DL. If that’s the case, I definitely want to see Duda make the 25 man roster.
Not sure about the BP. Izzy is a nice story but I’m not convinced there’s enough left in the tank. I’d rather carry Acosta. Carrasco will be there by virtue of his 2 yr. contract.
Ollie absolutely has to be released. The sooner the better.
stickguy
3/13/2011-3:25pm at 3:25 pm (UTC -4)
but, ollie came in to face 1 batter and got the out. Does that mean he just locked up a pen spot?
j/k. I hope. I agree of course that he just needs to be lopped off the roster. Especially if they are keeping castillo, I don’t think the new FO regime will survive keeping both of them!
stickguy
3/13/2011-3:20pm at 3:20 pm (UTC -4)
I am getting more and more depressed that we will be stuck with a 7 man batting order again, with slappy foisted upon us.
I still say why bother? His absolute ceiling is somewhere between mediocre and below average, with no upside or power. Since he is gone anyway at year end, do you honestly feel that he is the difference between winning and losing this year?
all playing castillo really will do is delay seeing if any of the younger options have anything to offer. Though realistically, expecting slappy to stay healthy all year is a pipe dream most likely anyway.
if he does start the year, havens better be on the Ike fast track program, because slappy won’t last.
Oh, and I think Hairston might just have cemented his job!
stickguy
3/13/2011-3:23pm at 3:23 pm (UTC -4)
rusty, a reasonable guess at the roster. I think they go with a 7 man pen though and 5 man bench, and the pen arms might shuffle a bit.
Beltran on the DL to start? Very real possibility. If so, will be interesting to see what they do with RF.
Wins, I am on the 85-88 bandwagon with Rusty, and if some things finally break right they can push 90 and be in the WC hunt.
kingman 26
3/13/2011-3:35pm at 3:35 pm (UTC -4)
90 wins?
stickguy
3/13/2011-3:41pm at 3:41 pm (UTC -4)
yes, they can. that is if guys stay healthy and have years they are capable of having. With no major disasters, and a few pleasant surprises.
just as good chance they win 90 as they only win 72
kingman 26
3/13/2011-3:49pm at 3:49 pm (UTC -4)
No, they can’t, and no there’s not.
I really like you a lot, but this is absolutely ridiculous.
We have a rotation that could be among the game’s worst.
We have a 4 and a 5 which will be terrible and/or on the DL.
Our offense will be mediocre at best.
And we play 54 games against the Phils, Braves, and Marlins.
njstuckintx
3/13/2011-3:55pm at 3:55 pm (UTC -4)
You say ‘Could’. And I think that’s his point. They could all suck the big one and the Mets win 72. Or, they could all bounce back like Travolta’s career and bammo, 90 wins. Take the difference between the 2, split it, and that’s about where my expectations are for this team. 81-81.
stickguy
3/13/2011-3:55pm at 3:55 pm (UTC -4)
I think you are overreacting just a tad on the opposite side. The rotation could easily be perfectly fine to above average, there is a ton of talent on the offense. But we do play in the NL east, and how hard that is depends on what happens to the other teams.
stickguy
3/13/2011-4:05pm at 4:05 pm (UTC -4)
Knog, honest question for you. If you think the team is going to be that bad this year, why are you hopeful they will be much better in 2012? With Beltran gone, and likely Reyes, with the same rotation core, why aren’t you expecting them to be worse?
kingman 26
3/13/2011-4:12pm at 4:12 pm (UTC -4)
Stick, I think Niese and Pelf will continue to improve.
Johan will be ready in spring of 2012.
We will surely have something better at the end of the rotation.
2011–Pelf, Dickey, Niese, Young Capuano.
2012-Johan, Pelf, Niese, Dickey, Someone Better.
That’s a big improvement.
I think Ike and Thole will be better in 2012.
I think 2B and RF (whether Duda or FMart of someone we cannot forsee) will be better.
And, the Phils will be a year older!
Plus, we will have more young kids hopefully ready (Havens? Gee?) and we will have tens of millions of bucks freed up, some of which surely will be used to bring in new talent.
kingman 26
3/13/2011-4:09pm at 4:09 pm (UTC -4)
Well NJ, you are probably right.
I think 81 wins would be a huge achievement.
Stick, Young has not been healthy and good since 2007.
Capuano had two full MLB years which were good–not even very good–and those were in 2005 and 2006; that’s a LOOOONG time ago.
It’s like the guy who posted a month ago how we should expect Bonser to come back from injuries and all of a sudden become a much better pitcher than he has ever been.
Sure it COULD happen. But it never will.
And the offense has a ton of players who WERE talented. Beltran and Bay are most likely past their primes. Reyes is a huge wild card. Pagan is decent. 2B will be average at best. Hopefully C and 1B will be a tad above average.
The team will most likely be average offensively, below average in the starting pitching department, and maybe above average when it comes to the bullpen and overall defense despite the issues at 2B and in RF.
To me, it looks like hoping for .500 is a reasonable expectation.
And one I do not expect them to achieve.
stickguy
3/13/2011-4:23pm at 4:23 pm (UTC -4)
I guess you are looking for improvement, since beltran and likely reyes will be gone in 2012. Bay, however, will be another year older and calcified in LF.
kingman 26
3/13/2011-4:28pm at 4:28 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed on Beltran, but he has been hurt and largely useless for two years now. Most full-time players would be an improvement.
As for Reyes, either he returns to old form and is re-signed, or is hurt/mediocre for the third straight year, is gone, and is replaced by an improvement.
Bay, alas, is just a problem.
njstuckintx
3/13/2011-5:00pm at 5:00 pm (UTC -4)
I’d say your right on Reyes being replaced by an improvement, but SS is T-H-I-N thin. Maybe we can start grooming Murphy for SS too.
stickguy
3/13/2011-5:11pm at 5:11 pm (UTC -4)
not a chance in hell that reyes is getting replaced by an improvement.
He was fine in 2009, until he had the hammy tendon issue.
and knock the frst month off of 2012 (no ST, getting back in form) nad he was more than respectable, and certainly more than they are getting out of Tejada or an old fart like Cabrera filling in for 1 year.
kingman 26
3/13/2011-5:19pm at 5:19 pm (UTC -4)
Stick, he played 36 games in 2009. What the hell does it matter how he played when he played 36 games? However, his line in those 36 games was .279 .355 .395 and his production was mediocre.
And no, he was not too good in 2010.
His Sept line was its usual .256 .304 .453.
Was he tired or should he have really been getting up to speed in Sept/Oct?
stickguy
3/13/2011-5:29pm at 5:29 pm (UTC -4)
and good luck getting a replacement in 2012 that can even replicate his not 100% 2010 stat line and defense.
The last 93 games of the year, he put up an .820+ OPS, with 11 HRs and quite a few RBIs (prorating to ~20 HRs and 80 RBIs for a full year). And that is pretty damned good for a SS. And he is just turning 28, and in fantastic shape right now, with no lingering chronic damage (like beltran has).
ESPN (or MLB network, one of them) recently did a show listing the top 20 SSs in MLB.. Jose was something like 4th, ahead of Jeter and behind Tulo, Hanley and someone else.
I know you are down on him, but the odds of the Mets getting an improvement in 2012 over the 2012 Reyes are somewhere between none and the mets extend Ollie.
look at the SS market in MLB right now. It sucks big time. So unless you think Tejada or Flores is going to be ready for the big time, you are stuck with crap (young that never was, or old that used to be). Cabrera? Luis Hernandez?
oleosmirf
3/13/2011-4:27pm at 4:27 pm (UTC -4)
on what grounds is the rotation going to “among the games worst” Young looks very good and Capuano looks good as well. Neither are going to be like they were at their best but they should pitch at the league average.
I agree that 90 wins is completely and utter ridiculous at this point but 72 wins is almost as crazy. This team is going to hover around 80 +/- 3-4 games so 76-84 wins is a decent estimate
kingman 26
3/13/2011-4:31pm at 4:31 pm (UTC -4)
I disagree about Capuano and Young. I just think they will be below average. We will see soon enough. Sure they look good for 2 innings.
I also think it is unreasonable to expect a repeat from Dickey.
Niese was good in June and July and between mediocre and atrocious the rest of the year.
I think Pelf is the one thing we can count on.
Overall? Average would be wonderful.
oleosmirf
3/13/2011-6:42pm at 6:42 pm (UTC -4)
well of course Dickey is not going to repeat but i’m hoping he keeps his ERA under 4.00 which I think is pretty realistic.
gategem
3/13/2011-5:45pm at 5:45 pm (UTC -4)
In a parallel universe? Perhaps.
stickguy
3/13/2011-3:42pm at 3:42 pm (UTC -4)
Interesting conversation the booth just had, about the Cards. Said how they are short SP, and likely will be waiting in the weeds to late in ST when some veteran arms get cut.
Ollie, anyone?
And damned, so close to one of those obscure bases loaded HRs here (I know there is a name for it, let me think for a while… Oh yeah, a Grand slam!)
stickguy
3/13/2011-3:54pm at 3:54 pm (UTC -4)
bucholz looked good. if he gets back to his pre-injury form, the back end of the pen could be very, very strong.
gategem
3/13/2011-6:23pm at 6:23 pm (UTC -4)
I’ll leave the predicting to all the soothsayers here and just hope for an entertaining season. And if the entertaining wish does not come to pass there is always the “extra innings package.”
BTW The word “if” seems to be the most important word in describing the Mets upcoming season.
stickguy
3/13/2011-9:10pm at 9:10 pm (UTC -4)
well, good or bad, you can never say that the mets aren’t interesting! at least off the field…