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Mar 14

Joe D at MMO Gives Us Something To Be Damn Happy About

On a day where it seems the entire baseball world and Mets nation itself is piling on Joe D at Mets Merized Online has given us something to look forward to.

Pagan, Davis and Thole Are Just A Few OF The Many Bright Spots This Spring

On my ride in to work today I caught a few minutes of XM radio and had to listen to Jeff Nelson fill in for Rob Dibble.  Man does he have an axe to grind with that Mets.  Painting the most ridiculous picture that even some of our pessimist themselves would shake their head at.  Personally, I can’t wait for the season.  I am entitled to my belief that the Mets are going to surprise some people, namely their very own fans.

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162 comments

  1. kingman 26

    Hmmmm, interesting. I guess Spring Training stats DO mean something….when they are positive.

    :-)

    Sorry Chief.

    I cannot wait either, and if Thole and Ike play this way, the future can be bright.

    But it is a shame they cannot pitch 7 innings every 5th day too.

    1. TRS86

      No, Kingman it’s not about the stats. It’s how they look doing it. Thole is indeed hitting the ball very hard. Capuano’s control has been excellent. Krod has looked sharp with his velocity up. Niese’s curve ball looks to already be in great form. Those are the things I am looking at more than the stats he provided. Duda is making my man Stick blush.

  2. Dirtysanchez

    I just never understood the negitivity toward the mets season. They have pretty much as good of a chance as anyone. Hell even the division is a shot as the injury bug seems to have found an apartment in philly

    1. TRS86

      It’s so early, I never understand my self why people don’t realize that this is sports. Nothing is ever a lock, that’s why Vegas makes a ton of money on sports. Why can’t the Mets be the San Diego of this season? Why because we are the Mets and stuff like that never happens to us…. Well just a few years ago the Philly fans were saying the same thing.

      I am not getting caught up in if the Mets can win 90 or if they can win the division or even predicting a wild card chase. I am just looking forward to a different type of baseball and seeing what Collins, Sandy and the new attitude Mets can get done on the field.

      1. kingman 26

        Why can’t the Mets be the San Diego of this season?

        Because they had a lot more talent than we do?

        Because their entire pitching staff other than Bell is manned by guys in their 20s, not injured older guys and retreads?

        Just a guess–what’s the answer?

        1. TRS86

          They also had an offense that after Agonz had no one with more than a .732 OPS (the great Will Venable) with Eckencrappy and Hairston getting near 1000 PA with an OPS below .650.

        2. Dirtysanchez

          what does age have to do with anything…steve strausberg is having Tommy John and he just turned old enough to drink(i think).

          1. kingman 26

            Well, age has a lot to do with things in sports. Especially pitchers. Especially pitchers coming back from years of injuries.

          2. kingman 26

            And dismissing the Phils’ rotation as you do below is kind of ridiculous.

          3. Dirtysanchez

            I dont “dismiss” the phills rotation, Im just saying I think it has more question marks in it than people think. Its not like we are talking smoltz\glavine\maddux here imo…you got one sure thing, two pretty good things, one good thing and a ?

          4. kingman 26

            Oswalt really does not miss many starts, and Lee has missed more than a few just once in the last 7 years.

            Has Halladay missed more than a start or two in five years? Has Hamels missed a start the last three years?

            Eventually the Phils will indeed be old and infirm; they are just not there yet.

          5. TRS86

            As we have seen with Johan and Pedro, it can happen quickly though.

          6. kingman 26

            That my friend, is indeed the sad truth.

            And a corollary to my point on Capuano and Young.

            Just not likely that either of them will be very good and/or pitch very much.

          7. TRS86

            I think there is enough research to prove that pitchers can indeed come back from TJ surgery and pitch very well. Again the key is to be 2 years removed. I am encouraged by their health and results at the end of last year and being healthy to start this season. Is it a lock they will go out and produce 32 starts? Obviously not. However, the potential for healthy seasons is there.

          8. metsfan4decades

            ‘I think there is enough research to prove that pitchers can indeed come back from TJ surgery and pitch very well. Again the key is to be 2 years removed’

            Every pitcher is different. Take Wagner, for instance. He had TJ in Aug? Sep? The following May he was way ahead of schedule to the point where the Mets told him to throttle back on his rehab.
            He went on to pitch that Sep for the Mets and Boston and held his own.

            The following year, for Atlanta he pitched very well. He was clocking 98mph in the first game he came in a pitched against the Mets.

            All this from a 38 year old man. I don’t know if relievers are a bit different in their road to return or not. I’m just saying that 2 years removed from TJ should see a pitcher returning to form….the key for our pitchers is what exactly was their form prior to TJ surgery? With some the potential is there but never quite reached it before the surgery.

          9. kingman 26

            You are comparing Wagner’s history and body of work and success to Capuano and Young?

            Wagner is a borderline HOFer with a very long record of success and an amazing arm and amazing mechanics.

            Capuano had two pretty good years as an MLB starter; Young had three good ones—both more than two years ago.

            Part of my point here is that these guys never were anywhere near as good as, say, Wagner, Sheets, or Hudson, guys who made recoveries.

            Those guys would still be pretty darn good at 70–80% of their former selves.

          10. TRS86

            Not really the point unless someone is expecting them to come back and be an ace. I expect them to come back in and be #4/5 starters. Certainly possible if not probable if they are indeed healthy which it appears they indeed are. If that changes then yeah could be bad. Again that is why they are on incentive deals. At least there is incentive for them to do well.

          11. kingman 26

            Good points.

      2. Dirtysanchez

        agreed. To me anyway, this feels much like 2005 where we were on the start of something but definitely not there yet. Collins is a 360 from manuel and willie. Who knows, maybe that fire is what they needed to get over the hump the last few years. I see Collins getting the max from these guys, they are responding well to him. Matt and I talked about this for a while and even in our division people seem to think we are a 4th place team behind the marlins. That really gets to me…I mean just even a quick look at our division…

        Phillys- Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Chase Utley are guaranteed some time on the DL. That really leaves them with 1 ace in halladay which is no different than most teams. Their bullpen is shaky, their closer is coming back from injury and did not look all that impressive last year. Their offense, I read somewhere, put up the lowest amount of offense in the last 3 years. Most of it im sure was injury related but it doesnt look like that will be a different story this year either. Werth was their only dominant RH batter in that lineup and he is gone. Ibanez was only good for half a season 2 years ago and has been declining ever since. Rollins is coming back from injury and really has not been the same…also declining. The only sure thing you got in philly is halladay and howard and maybe not even howard since he will not have the same protection he has enjoyed the last few years.

        Braves – Theres a chair on the DL with chip’s name on it. They have rookies for closers. Their bullpen is not that bad. Jair is coming off surgery, Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson are the only anchors in that rotation. Gonzo is not going to put up the same numbers as he did last year. The only two solid offensive pieces they have are mccann and uggla. With uggla you also take a hit at 2b defensively which must be taken into consideration. Heyward is in line for the sophomore slump, so it will be interesting to see how he handles that

        Marlins – The only sure thing for the marlins are Hanley and JJ. Gaby also will be subject to the sophomore slump. They lost offense with uggla gone. They have ALOT of unproven talent. They have committed a million errors already in spring training. They also will be adjusting to a new manager(I dont know how they are responding to him). Sanchez is due on the DL sometime this year. Nolasco may join sanchez or AAA…either or will happen sometime this year. Stanton looked over matched at times last year and it will be an adjustment to play 162 at the major league level but that also goes as unproven talent.

        That was just a skim through of the division off the top of my head. Im not saying the mets dont have question marks, all im saying is the rest of our division(and league) has their fair share of question marks as well.

        1. njstuckintx

          I dunno, I think the Braves will win the division. I don’t see the Phils rotation holding up. their offense has Prado, Freeman, Heyward, Uggly, McCann… Their pitching is very good, and they have some rooks knocking on the door, pitching wise.

          I see the division playing out with a Braves, Phils, and then roll the dice with the other 3. The Nats are prob. the worst, but stranger things have happened and they are definitely improving. The Fish… who knows what they heck they’ll do. If you told me it was the Braves, Phils, Mets, Fish, Nats or braves, Phils, Fish, Nats, Mets… I don’t think I’d be surprised either way.

        2. TRS86

          You are right that all teams have questions. I think it’s a long shot at best for the Mets to win the division and they have enough questions where the Wildcard is pushing it. However, that’s what is great about baseball. All of those question marks for the Mets COULD come up winners where as all those questions for the other teams could come up season breakers. You just never know, as they Mets should be a perfect example of that.

          1. Dirtysanchez

            For the first time in a long time there is 0 pressure on the mets. Most of all the pressure is on a “veteran” (a.k.a old) philly team. I think this will be a fun season as expectations are not crazy high which is where the Mets like it. I honestly think they will surprise people.

          2. TRS86

            I agree they have POTENTIAL to surprise people. Of course if all the doomsday predictions come true then of course we could have a disastrous 2009 type season. I just don’t see it myself.

  3. saltygary

    MY crystal ball says 73 wins for the Metsies this season.

    That being said I am looking forward to watching the kids and I really hope that Young works out. He has great stuff and it would be awesome to have him healthy.

    1. kingman 26

      “MY crystal ball says 73 wins for the Metsies this season.

      That being said I am looking forward to watching the kids”

      Again, totally and completely agree.

      It’s 1983!

    2. TRS86

      My crystal ball needs some polish because it’s too cloudy to see a damn thing right now. I am sticking to last year’s record being the expected. I see no real reason why it’s 100% they can’t at least match last year’s record or exceed it and every point as to why they can’t is matched by a counter point as to why they can. Thus right now it’s just time for baseball and let the Mets decide this debate.

  4. kingman 26

    My first question is this:

    How many pitchers (like Capuano and Young) who have been injured for 4-5 years ever come back as starters and stay healthy AND productive? We are counting on TWO of them to do that.

    Can we name a few? Do we remember last year’s batch of injured pitchers? Sheets, Harden, Bedard–how’d they do?

    It’s five years since Capuano was healthy and pretty good. It’s four years since Young was healthy and good.

    Realism and pessimism are not really synonymous.

    1. TRS86

      Well obviously there are risk. However, what is promising is that both were healthy at the close of last season and both appear to be healthy at the beginning of this season. Also promising is that Cap’s velocity last year was actually better than his career averages. So perhaps it’s possible that he is fully recovered.

    2. Dirtysanchez

      Oswalt and Lee have been injured the last 4-5 years…yet that doesnt stop people from handing phillies the division. While they have been productive, they sure as heck didnt stay healthy all year and believe me…the phillies are definitely COUNTING on both of them to do that.

      1. kingman 26

        Lee the last 5 years has started 33/20/31/34/28 games.

        Oswalt the last 5 years has started 32/32/32/30/32 games.

        Oswalt has most definitely not been injured much at all; when he has been, he has pitched through it.

        1. TRS86

          Yeah, Oswalt has been “hanging on by a thread” for multiple years now. Eventually one would think it will catch up to him but can’t say at this point he has not been durable.

        2. TRS86

          What is interesting is during that time Johan has had more starts than Lee.

          1. kingman 26

            Since Johan’s been a Met–

            Johan 88 starts
            Lee 93 starts

            Sorry guys!!!

            :-)

          2. TRS86

            What, you get to change the terms now?

            “Lee the last 5 years has started 33/20/31/34/28 games.”
            Johan the last 5 years has started 34/33/34/24/29 games.

            Lee 146
            Johan 154

            or how about
            2010
            Johan 29
            Lee 28

            LOL, you can always bend stats. What matters is right NOW is that Johan is on the shelf and Lee is healthy. Point is that can change in a moment.

        3. Dirtysanchez

          Well the facts kill my argument. I never had oswalt as the picture of health and neither did lee.

          1. kingman 26

            Oswalt does have aches and pains, but he plays through them.

            Kind of the anti-Met.

          2. TRS86

            Yeah, Johan never does that. Nor does your boy Jose.

          3. kingman 26

            Jose? Are you kidding?

            Please.

          4. TRS86

            Kingman, come on. Jose managed to play 133 games last year many while injured and even played when he could not even swing from the correct side of the plate. For 4 years averaged 159 games per season at SS. That’s not a small feat in today’s game.

          5. kingman 26

            I am not saying he does not want to play; I disagree though if you are saying he has a high tolerance for pain and plays through injuries–his eight year career does not seem to show that.

            But this definitely falls into the category of two opinions which each have equal merit.

          6. TRS86

            I just don’t think you can get through 160 games a year at SS without being able to play through pain.

            Look at what happen when he came back. No Spring training and comes back to play 73 games in a row. Gets injured and mismanaged, never allowed to heal and comes back to 40+ more games in a row.

      2. kingman 26

        Last five years starts:

        Capuano: 34/25/0/0/9

        Young: 31/30/18/14/4

        1. TRS86

          Last September:
          Cap: 6 starts 2.91 ERA 1.206 WHIP
          Young: 3 starts 1.29 ERA 1.21 WHIP

          Again, risk? Yeah. Potential? Yeah.

          1. kingman 26

            Hey, let’s judge Oliver Perez on the one batter he faced the other day!

            ERA— 0.00!!!!!

            WHIP— 0.00!!!!!

          2. TRS86

            Nah, spring training.

            You have to admit the fact they were healthy in September with good results and are healthy this year and are getting good reports is a positive thing.

          3. kingman 26

            Yes sir, agreed with all of that; just having a tad of fun with it.

            Hey, I accepted all criticism about being wrong on Dickey last year, and while I was indeed right about Jacobs and Matthews, trust me, I will be ECSTATIC if I am wrong as hell on Young and Capuano.

            AND Jose!

    3. TRS86

      Oh and I think at this point there is no way to say which ones of us are realist and which ones are not. It appears that all of us are because we are not blindly or boldly predicting anything. It also appears that each of us have thought about the question and have points to back up our opinions. Seems realistic to me.

      1. kingman 26

        That is indeed fair.

        However, expecting much of anything from Young and Capuano is not very realistic.

        I would think we can agree on that.

        1. TRS86

          Hmmm, depends on what is “much”.

          I think they are both risk, that is why they got lower dollar contracts with big incentive clauses. However, I think it’s reasonable for some to expect more than you are because of the fact that both were healthy to close the season last year and are healthy to start this one. Also on the well documented research that 2 years removed from TJ seems to be when pitchers are able to put it past them.

  5. saltygary

    If it was guaranteed that the MEts won’t contend for the playoffs would folks rather have the team win 80 or 60 games?

    For me I would rather see improvement from the youngsters and a bad record to get a higher draft pick for next season.

    1. TRS86

      To me if the youngsters improve we will have a better record. I don’t worry about what slot the draft pick is in. I want them to win every damn game they can.

      1. metsfan4decades

        Agreed.

    2. njstuckintx

      I’d rather they instituted 10 cent beer night a couple games over the course of the season.

      1. saltygary

        DISCO SUCKS! DISCO SUCKS!

    3. kingman 26

      I would definitely rather they win as many games as possible.

      I also hope we can see a lot of time from every youngster possible.

  6. kistics

    MC blog has a minor league video clip of Harvey vs Flores… cool stuff.

  7. mrose

    I am also sick of the naysayers.. on my way to PSL yesterday, Justin Terminy(sp?) on Mad Dog Radio was talking about the Johan rumors and how Mets fans had nothing to watch for and now they really don’t.

    Why are the Mets so bad?? Why would I not watch a team with some young players who I will enjoy for the future? Am I expecting playoffs? No. Am I expecting last place? God no.

    1. kingman 26

      Thank your lucky stars we have the Nats.

      If we were a four-team division, we WOULD be looking at last place.

      Realism and naysaying are also not synonyms.

      1. TRS86

        How does your comment on Realism and naysaying apply to his comment?

        “talking about the Johan rumors and how Mets fans had nothing to watch for and now they really don’t.”

        Do you believe this comment? Is it realistic? I think it’s very realistic that Mets fans had plenty to watch for regardless of Johan Santana ever pitching for them in 2011.

        1. kingman 26

          “I am also sick of the naysayers” was what I was replying to; thinking it was pointed at me.

          ——————————————————-

          As for the Johan comment, TRS, don’t you know by now what I think of the average sports reporter for the major media?

          I think there is plenty to look forward to, as I also did in 1978 and 1986 and 1995 and 2007. I just think the team has a lot of holes and is in a VERY tough division.

          Saying we have nothing to watch for is idiotic, inane drivel that is undeserving of MRose’s attention.

          Johan said whoever wrote the stuff about him is a liar. I agree with Johan.

          I literally could not care less what ANY of the Heyman/Olney/Rubin/Klapisch types ever say or write; I am 100% convinced they make things up.

          Truthfully, I think some of the people on here wallow in that stuff totally unnecessarily.

          How does it add to one’s Met experience to read this nonsense?

          When he is really hurt and shut down, don’t worry, a real source like the Star Ledger will report it pretty quickly.

          1. TRS86

            Did not sense that “naysayer” was referring to you at all.

          2. mrose

            kingman, I did not mean you with Naysayers.. I think a FAN being a naysayer is a lot more normal than this guy who can broadcast his horribly annoying opinion to people over the radiowaves.
            Plus i’m SURE this guy has not seen a Mets game at the least this spring, talked to players, looked at these mets, anything

      2. mrose

        If its a 4 team division we MAY be looking at last. In my eyes, we likely aren’t beating the Braves, but I don’t see the Braves as worldbeaters, we have very little shot at the Phils, unless the rotation has injuries.. but the Marlins? Are they that much better?

        They lost Uggla, and they have a bunch of young players, and a couple very good pitchers…

        And also, i’m not sure where the realism and naysaying comes into play..is that directed at ME for disagreeing with this guy on the radio, or the guy for saying it.

        1. mrose

          Kingman – I agree with you saying it is undeserving of my attention. I was driving to PSL From Orlando (2 hours) and on a Sunday morning, with my father in law, it was the closest to decent sports talk I could find, aside from hours of endless opinions on the brackets and Sportscenter on the radio ..which gets boring quick.
          I can see why this tool was on a Sunday morning and not in a prime time spot.

          1. kingman 26

            Gotcha, and I really did mean that as a most respectful comment.

            I definitely follow sports VERY closely, but I do a pretty good job of avoiding Francesa, Olney, Heyman, Klapisch, and their ilk.

            I really think that for reasonable, educated fans, reading/listening to them is just annoying as hell and adds little to the Met experience.

            I like to listen to Steve Somers a lot, and I get my Met news for the most part from here, the Ledger and the Times, ESPN, and MLBTR, with occasional doses of Metsblog.

            I just think the rest, like most of the major news media on ALL issues, are just a lot of obnoxious noise out to gather attention with very little regard for truth.

          2. mrose

            Yea, living in Florida, I stay away from the big guys and typically find the beat reports who are AT PSL all Spring training are the educated ones. Was Steve Popper in PSL at all this year?

  8. metsfan4decades

    Bottom line is realist/pessimist/optimist….whatever we all identify ourselves as:

    It’s jut as reasonable to expect Young and Cap, 2 years removed from surgery and healthy end of last season and to start this ST…..

    1. are healthy and will be productive members of the rotation
    2. they’re not healthy and wind up on the DL sooner rather than later
    3. they are healthy and will pitch like crap

    There are just as many examples of those who came back from surgery to pitch good as there is who were never the same again.

    How does any of us know? Bottom line is, we do not.

    1. TRS86

      Yup. Again, what I think is indeed promising is that they were healthy to close last season and are now healthy enough to start this season.

  9. metsfan4decades

    As far as this is concerned: ‘rumors starting circulating that Johan Santana’s entire 2011 season may be in jeopardy’…..

    Jeeze, that was always a possibility. Why is this even news?

    1. kingman 26

      It’s not, if you stop paying attention to fabricated drivel from attention seeking reporters!

      :-)

      1. metsfan4decades

        LOL.
        Agreed.

        1. kingman 26

          :-)

          And as I said to MRose, it is not worthy of YOUR attention!!

    2. metsfan4decades

      FYi or anyone not listening to SNY’s game yesterday…

      Ronnie said straight out ‘these make for a nice story for beat writers trying to fill their quota’….or something similar to this statement.

      Said it’s way, way too early in Johan’s rehab process to have any idea when he’ll be back. Went on to describe rehab back from surgery stating they’ll be days he’ll feel great and beg the trainers to ‘bump it up a notch’ and they’ll be days in a row where he’ll feel like crap thinking his career might be over.

    3. kistics

      Even if Johan makes it back in time, do we really expect him to pitch like the old Johan this season?

      From what I have been sensing from the fans, is that nobody expects anything from Johan this season. So this is much to do about nothing.

      Seriously, I’d rather have Johan miss the entire season and be healthy next season than to rush him.

    4. TRS86

      From Amazing Ave today:
      “This strikes me as saying something while not really saying anything at all. It takes very little imagination to interpret it to mean, “Some random person associated with the Mets thinks that if things start going really badly in Santana’s recovery that’d he’ll be asked to slow down the rehab timetable.” Well, duh.”

      1. kingman 26

        Yes, and the real tragedy is that it gets dragged all over the place.

        You called it a way to get clicks for a writer—yet you are helping the writer do just that!

        1. TRS86

          Nah, I have not clicked on his link yet. Don’t need to with MB, MMO and Amazing Ave all reporting it.

  10. metsfan4decades

    Ed Coleman on WFAN:

    - No one knows if/when Johan is coming back, not even Johan. If anyone can make it back from this type of surgery though, it’s Johan. He quoted Johan as saying right now he’s had no setbacks. Doesn’t mean he won’t, just hasn’t happened yet. Coleman feels if all goes right, look towards August and probably about 10 starts this year.
    Said those stories circulating was just someone, who talked to someone, who was more pessimistic than someone else (lol).

    - No one knows why Ollie and Castillo are still on the squad – other than the Mets FO.

    - Mets hope to have Beltran back in the next few days. But with Beltran and those knee problems, pretty much you can believe he’s coming back when he’s coming back.

    Bottom line with Coleman is he tells you up front what the company line is on any issue, then he gives you his opinion. He’s very careful to make sure all understand which is which.

    1. stickguy

      ollie is a mystery, but castillo is still here simply because none of the other 2B options has stepped up to claim the job (and castillo has not looked completely shot unfortunately).

      1. metsfan4decades

        I think Castillo looks about as good as he can at this point in his career. He appears healthy, he does turn a smooth dp, his range is limited and his bat is a slappy singles and walks only type. Namely, he is what he is.

        The only reason he looks ‘good’ right now IMO, is the basis for comparison. No one else defensively has separated themselves from the pack. Murphy’s bat appears far superior to Castillo’s but I just don’t think the limited games and drills this ST is adequate for him to learn 2nd base. He doesn’t look good there.

        - Emaus hasn’t impressed yet either.
        - Tejada hasn’t shown the ability to hit at the ML level so he was sent back down already.
        - Turner has been so-so in both categories.
        - Hernandez, who has just been added to the mix, might have adequate talent with the bat to carry him for defense but I don’t know that there’s enough time to make the determination.

        So I’ll not be surprised to see Castillo get the job come Opening Day – hold the slot for someone else for a bit, send Emaus back and Murph is on the bench.

        1. stickguy

          Castillo, as you described him, is probably the absolute best he can possibly be, and it is still below average (and frankly unacceptable for a starting ML 2B). I would be surprised if he could even break zero WAR.

          That is my biggest peeve with playing him. he is gone after the year, and has no upside. It isn’t like playing some talented prospect that just hasn’t quite put it all together, but still might!

  11. metsfan4decades

    RA Dickey on WFAN right now:

    Absolutely thinks the Cap and Young, if healthy, we can be looking at regenerated careers this year.

    Said even if there stuff is mediocre, they’re ‘cerebral’ enough to get by. However, thinks their stuff is better than mediocre. Said we could be looking at 2 potential All Stars and if they pitch to their potential this year, ‘watch out’.

    You go, RA.

    1. metsfan4decades

      RA has a book coming out, probably by next spring. Memoires of his life.

      I’m sure this will make for interesting reading.

  12. stickguy

    wow, a rousing morning discussion of Met win possibilities, and Philly and Met ST. AKA “knog in the middle”. I have to weigh in on this!

    The phils rotation? the old 3 are all 32+, certainly well into the danger zone for breaking down, and with a lot of mileage on them (last year included). As to injury history, this I got off the top of my head:

    Oswalt: 2 years ago (2008 I believe?) he got shut down early in September when his back gave out. There was also serious talk about him needing surgery at some point to actually fix the weak/damaged (disk?) area. Did the reahb instead, and it has held up. So far.

    Lee, has missed bits of time the last few years with some arm (elbow?) issues, and even was held back initially this year in ST with armpit/chest discomfort (sound familiar, Johan?).

    Hallady was a major injury problem earlier in his career, but has been durable lately. But, little known fact, he hurt his groin at the end of his last NLCS start, to the extent that he would most likely not have been able to pitch in the WS if the Phils had advanced.

    Now no, none of these guys are in the situation where Johan is. But putting them all in as a lock for 30+ starts and 200+ innings is certainly a risk.

    1. njstuckintx

      So you are saying Halladay has a strong groin?

      1. stickguy

        ah, no?Hopefully it is still weak from the pull last year, and he tweaks it again.

    2. kingman 26

      “Halladay (I fixed the spelling for you; I know how pesky those brand new keyboards can be) was a major injury problem earlier in his career, but has been durable lately.”

      Last five years starts: 32, 31, 34, 32, 33.

      Last five years IP: 220, 225, 246, 239, 250.

      He’s been durable “lately.”

      Stick my friend, much like the quality of the Phils’ rotation, you are too much.

      1. TRS86

        Wouldn’t that be durable lately? LOL.

        1. kingman 26

          Well, as Bill Clinton might have said, “that depends on your definition of ‘lately’”

          :-)

      2. stickguy

        well, did you miss the part about a ton of miles on those arms? The guy pitched over 1000 innings the last 4 years, plus post season. Unless you don’t think that elbows and shoulders wear out, then what the hell he will pitch until he is 50!

        And since you seem to think Young couldn’t possibly come back and be healthy, I found this:

        Roy Halladay and Risk

        by Brian Joura – January 27, 2009

        In 2004 and 2005, Roy Halladay missed significant time with first a shoulder injury and then a leg injury.

        Gee, he had a shoulder injury and recovered from it. Guess it can be done!

        Sure the Phils rotation is great on paper. It is also aging and high miles, and the odds of a breakdown go way the hell up when that happens.

        1. kingman 26

          Stick, in 2002 and 2003 Halladay won 22 and 19 games. 266 and 239 IP. ERAs and WHIPs which were very good to excellent.

          Capuano was never remotely this good; he had two pretty decent years as a starter.

          Young was better; had three years each of which improved.

          The point is not JUST coming back from injury—it is how good (or not good in Capuano’s case) these guys were to begin with.

  13. stickguy

    now for the Mets and Marlins. Marlins first.

    They mostly suck. Won what, 2 games mroe than the Mets last year? And lost Uggla. They are every bit as much, if not more, of an If for a good year than the Mets are.

    Now, the Mets pitching. Specifically Young and Capuano, the favorite topic of the day!

    I agree with Real, that injury return guys are much safer 2 years out, if they managed to come back the prior year (often considered the end of rehab) and stay healthy until the end, then be 100% the next spring.

    Both these guys did this. And their lack of GS the prior few years was as a result of getting hurt, getting fixed, and getting back into playing shape. Both apparently have accomplished this.

    Will they break down again? Maybe. But every pitcher is a maybe. And hell, probably better to get the guy that already had TJ than the one that is about to need it! Both guys have though looked very good in ST (and as Real noted, strong and productive last september).

    Not guaranteeing they make 30 starts, but I do feel comfortable that they will be a big improvement over the crap at the back end to start last season (ollie and maine).

    Also, IMO, you can’t lump in guys like this with Bedard, Wang, etc. Big difference between not playing at all and being on the shelf at year end, and having proven on the field that you can still perform.

    The way I look at it, Wang is still injured. Young and Capuano are healthy (having been fixed).

    1. TRS86

      True, also you have to look at the injury. Wang had shoulder surgery right? Much different than TJ. Sheets I am not sure was a TJ guy either.

      1. TRS86

        Better question, what decent starter lost his career to TJ surgery?

        1. njstuckintx

          Jamie Moyer. :D

          1. TRS86

            Nah, he still plans on returning. Social security is not what it used to be.

    2. kingman 26

      Stanton’s 21 and could be a serious slugger.

      Coghlan’s 25 and if healthy, could be very, very good again.

      Their four main starters–all aged 23–27–are led by a true ace in Johnson, and all could be as good or better than our top three.

      And with a couple more young surprises which they trot out every year?

      They finish 3rd, unless the Braves underachieve, then they finish second.

      1. stickguy

        and we hear this every year about the marlins and all their hot young talent, then they go out and become a non-factor, floating at around .500.

        of course their young talent could all blossom this year. a huge IF. Other teams do get to have ifs too, not just the Mets!

        1. kingman 26

          We’ve finished ahead of the Marlins three times in the last nine years.

          Floating around .500 in 2011 will make it three in ten.

          1. stickguy

            OK, I concede. The Mets blow donkey chunks. Every player will have a crappy year, they will all get hurt, and Citi Filed is likely to get condemned due to asbestos at the shake shack.

            young and capuano will pitch as bad as maine and ollie last year, making about the same 18 total starts.

            60 wins, tops.

          2. kingman 26

            OK, the only possibilities are your rose-colored unrealistic scenario or totally exaggerated hyperbole which I most definitely never said.

            Gotcha!

          3. TRS86

            Most likely, considering I am the realist here ;) the win totals will be right in between you two. Which by the way is exactly what I have been “guessing” for weeks.

          4. kingman 26

            Ah, I never said 60; never said less than 75.

            Let’s be clear here, Chief Realist.

            75–87 is my bottom prediction.

            I do think 80-82 is possible.

            I don’t think 85 is possible.

          5. TRS86

            To me, this early in the season, it’s hard not to have at least a 10 win variance in your prediction.

            If I predict 81-81 it would be hard for me to say that 91 or 71 are impossible. Unlikely? Yeah. To me closer that gets to my prediction the higher the percentage of chance (logically).

            The Mets won 79 games last year. I would say there is a 95% chance it will fall between 69 and 89 wins. LOL.

          6. kingman 26

            “I would say there is a 95% chance it will fall between 69 and 89 wins.”

            I AGREE!!!

            I might even go 98% on this….

          7. stickguy

            Look back big guy. a day or 2 ago you were set on 72!

          8. kingman 26

            I don’t think so.

            I have said 75 since the end of 2010.

          9. metsfan4decades

            We could play these ‘if’ games all day long about every club.

            Marlin’s young sluggers could have a good year. Not proven yet.

            On the other hand, Jose Reyes if healthy could have a great year – which he’s proven he’s done before. And he’s only 28.

            See what I mean? Depending on how full your glass is, we could be at this all day.

          10. TRS86

            Hey but since 2005 (tied) we have the edge
            3-2-1 LOL.

  14. Mr North Jersey

    I am not sure what to add to this debate you guys are having.

    All I will say is I don’t expect much from the Mets and by much i mean record wise. I will be impressed if they can simply finish .500.

    That being said I understand those that say they think the Mets will surprise their fans as well.

    I am focusing more on indivudual performances than the overall team performance. The kids like Davis, Thole, Niese and Parnell for example. I hope the Mets can play well record wise. I look forward to them doing so but I just don’t expect it.

    1. TRS86

      I “expect” the same wins give or take one as last year. I hope for 5 more and 5 less would not shock me.

    2. kingman 26

      Totally agree with Mr N.

      Not expecting much, will be thrilled if they win more than 75–80, and am very excited for the Junior Core.

    3. saltygary

      Exactly Mr. NJ

      I think what we lose focus on with the columnists is they are looking at many different factors and coming up with their analysis that is intended for a broad audience. We are non-stop digesting this crap and we’ve already come to terms with certain issues.

      For the casual fan that knows the Met’s, they know they have some marque names, a high payroll and come from one of the most competitive markets There are assumptions that the team can perform at a certain level. So columnists are explaining the MESS and to us it’s beating a dead horse and frustrating and can come across like they have a personal issue with the team. Casual fans don’t know enough or want to know enough to get engaged and follow guys like Ike, and Thole. So lets not get too caught up in the media, there is still a whole season of wins and losses to get through.

      1. stickguy

        Salty, I think “MESS” is hyperbole at this point, and way overstating the situation. Unless you are only talking about the wilpons financies?

        as to the team, they are set at 6 positions (7 if Beltran can walk out to RF), and have some options (not great of course) to mix and match for 2B. A very good if expensive closer, and some interesting pen arms, and some guys that look like they can make a decent bench.

        SP, they have 5 healthy guys now that either had good/very good years last year (or most of one), or seem to be well recovered from surgery 2 years back.

        The FO has been rebuilt, with renewed focus on building the organization and developing players. Jerry the clown is gone, with a serious manager that isn’t likely to put up with a ton of crap in his place.

        Some question marks? Sure. Will bay find his stroke, do they have to find a RF replacement, will guys stay healthy to a normal rate, will someone step up at 2B?

        But, every team has these type of questions. None of it to me makes it a “mess”. If anything, once the owners financial situation is resolved (sell part or all), they are well on their way to recovery.

        1. kingman 26

          We have TWO starting pitchers who had good and healthy years last year.

          Niese was awful for about half the year.

          Capuano three 66 innings.

          Young three TWENTY innings.

          Who are you talking about??

          1. TRS86

            Hmmm, awful? That’s strong words for a rookie.
            1st half 3.61ERA 1.36 WHIP
            2nd half 4.82 ERA 1.57 WHIP.

            Certainly not great but awful is strong for a guy with a 4.82 ERA as a rookie in the NL East. But ok concede that his 2nd half was not great. However, there is something else there with your statement. “Awful for about half the year”. When you look at his month by month splits this is not true.

            He had 3 starts in May that were flat terrible and 5 starts in September that almost matched them. That’s 8 starts 27.2 innings. The rest of the season over 132 2/3 innings he produced a 3.28 ERA.

          2. kingman 26

            Well, maybe…..Niese shows loads of potential; hopefully he will look like the June/July Niese all year.

          3. stickguy

            one of those starts never should have ended up that way, if Jerry the menace did not send him out after a long (1.5 hours?) rain delay. That was the game where he looked great before the rain, then got hammered afterward.

            I hate Jerry.

        2. saltygary

          Dude the team is a MESS. I don’t understand why it’s bad to recognize this.

          They had to gut the coaches. They had to gut the FO. Madoff gutted the bank accounts. We still owe 100m on Santana and who knows what is going to happen with him. The jokes of Ollie and Castillo. The final year of our tool-less 5 tool right fielder. Mostly a whole new bullpen and a guy who might pull off a 17.5 option for next season. All the rotation questions. The issues far out weigh the positives, that is a mess and there is no exaggeration. Plus there will continue to be non-baseball related drama until the finances are figured out. Just today another article came out that Picard has amended they lawsuit to add Wilpon charitable organizations.

          Last year the Dodgers were a mess due to Mannygate and the divorce of the ownership. The Rangers were a mess last year due to Bankruptcy. Shit happens and unfortunately for our team it seems like it happens a little more often.

          1. njstuckintx

            Some things in life are bad,
            They can really make you mad.
            Other things just make you swear and curse.
            When you’re chewing on life’s gristle,
            Don’t grumble, give a whistle,
            And this’ll help things turn out for the best, and…

            Always look on the bright side of life…

      2. kingman 26

        “Met’s”???

        :-)

        1. saltygary

          I am boycotting the use of an apostrophe for the word Mets until it is added on the uniform.

  15. metsfan4decades

    162 games, guys. That’s why the play the season. Can’t play the games on paper.

    And really, isn’t that the beauty of baseball? We’re all in 1st come opening day!

    (truly must suck though to be a Pirates fans these past couple of decades).

    1. TRS86

      Agreed 4D. A lot could break right or wrong to completely screw up anyone’s predictions.

    2. Ceetar

      One of the many reasons I’m glad I’m a blogger not a beat writer. I don’t have to find fluff to fill columns or pretend to be an expert and make predictions that (should) make me look silly in September.

  16. Mr North Jersey

    Jonathon Niese 2010
    1ST 12 STARTS – 69.0/IP
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=niesejo01&t=p&year=&share=3.08#9-20-sum:pitching_gamelogs
    4.17/ERA
    .285/BAA

    8 OF HIS 12 STARTS allowed 3 earned runs or less
    (In 1 of the 8 only pitched 2/ip)

    NEXT 11 STARTS – 69.0/IP
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=niesejo01&t=p&year=&share=3.08#9-20-sum:pitching_gamelogs
    2.48/ERA
    .239/BAA

    10 OF HIS 11 STARTS allowed 3 earned runs or less
    (In 8 OF HIS 11 only allowed 1 earned runs or less)

    Final 7 starts – 35.2/IP
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=niesejo01&t=p&year=&share=1.97#32-38-sum:pitching_gamelogs

    7.57/ERA
    .345/BAA

    3 OF HIS 7 STARTS allowed 3 earned runs or less
    (In each of LAST 3 Starts allowed 6 earned runs and pitched into the 5th in only 1 of those 3)

    What does this all mean? I will let you ponder that one. I am just hoping his last 7 starts were more due to being tired than anything else.

    1. metsfan4decades

      Niese said it was from being tired, more than anything else. He wasn’t used to the workload and could have trained better with an eye towards stamina for the second half – so he said.

      His training and regime this year is focusing on doing just that so here’s hoping he doesn’t fade down the stretch.

      1. stickguy

        don’t forget, he had surgery on his hammy the prior september (I think he had work done on it). So likely his off season was not normal in terms of getting ready for the season.

        1. kingman 26

          Stick, almost definitely going to Las Vegas the weekend of the 26th—let me know if you want any Met bets; very happy to do it.

          Despite what you may think, I WILL be making bets on the Mets over on wins, and to win the NL and the WS, as I do every year.

          1. Ceetar

            Silly not to imo. a $5 is practically nothing but buys me a Mets WS Jersey if they win.

          2. kingman 26

            Well I am very happy to say that I agree fully.

            I have been not cashing winning tickets every year since 2000, when at least I cashed the one on them to win the pennant (cannot remember, but not really good odds after the year they had in 99)…but I bet on them and a few longshots for fun every year.

            Last year I bet on the Braves, Marlins, and Mariners.

            Best one ever?

            Before the 2000 NFL season I bet on the Ravens to win the AFC and the SB. About 18-1 and 23-1.

            That was SWEEEEEEEEEET.

          3. Ceetar

            I just bet for fun online, the $5 is a given (think I got 35:1), but I just threw a bunch of $1 on over unders. Think I did ATL/PHI/BAL under and Mets, Rays over.

          4. kingman 26

            BAL under?

            Wow, what was the number, like 60??

          5. Ceetar

            76? I’d have to look it up again, but it was way too high imo. Kinda coupled with Rays over though, if I think they’re better, probably comes at O’s expense.

          6. kingman 26

            76?!

            Oh man, if that is the number in Vegas I may spend my entire gambling budget on that under!

            72 games with NY/BOS/TB/TOR plus the worst management in the AL? I will take it!

      2. TRS86

        Also if I recall in August he pitched the most innings he had ever pitched in a month at 40.2. Not surprising that after doing that in August he was tired in September.

  17. oleosmirf

    considering Castillo is going to be the opening day 2B, the only positives I can take out of that are 1) at least Ollie isn’t staying with him and 2) he doesn’t look so bad out there

    1. metsfan4decades

      I really wish they’d just bite the bullet on Castillo and release him. Go with the best candidate or platoon out there first couple of months and see how it goes. Make adjustments on the roster from AAA, if their initial selection(s) turn out to be a disaster.

      1. njstuckintx

        Like Stick said, they very well may have made their minds on cutting him, but makes no sense to play all your cards up front. It’d make me feel a whole lot better if Castillo & Perez were both seen with their thumbs up waiting for a ride ex. PSL. There may actually be rational thought going on in the brain trust’s secret lair of baseball operations.

      2. oleosmirf

        I honestly believe the Mets were looking for excuses to get rid of him but as of right now, he’s the best man for the job.

        The other options are that bad but who knows maybe Luis Hernandez can stay hot or Emaus starts hitting and force him off the roster

        1. kistics

          Or Murph gets comfortable at 2B and plays decent D.

          1. oleosmirf

            that won’t be possible in 3 weeks time.

          2. kistics

            If he plays solid D for a week turning couple DPs, you don’t think that qualify as ‘decent’ D?

          3. oleosmirf

            thats a huge accomplishment given his performance the other day.

          4. kistics

            Maybe he was having an off day.

            It is Castillo who dropped the flyball after all…

          5. stickguy

            a bad hop happens to anyone. even a dropped pop up in the wind can happen (but shouldn’t of course!)

            what I can’t take from Slappy is watching balls go through the hole, and balls hit right at him that he can’t move at all to come in on, letting a guy beat it out.

            He just needs to go!

    2. kistics

      I still don’t see how Castillo would get the job. It only takes Murphy to play OK defense or Emaus to have OK hitting. OR even platooning Muphy and Emaus at this point would have better overall contribution than Castillo.

      Last season Castillo hit FOUR doubles. That is not fourteen or twenty-four, but F-O-U-R.

      With slightly less ABs/PAs Tejada had 12 doubles.

      If both Murphy and Emaus can’t get it done, I would rather have Tejada (much better range) than Castillo starting.

  18. CaseStreet

    Steve Popper isn’t too happy with me.

    http://www.tweetdeck.com/twitter/StevePopper/~TPuHW

    1. Ceetar

      conspiracy crap in that tweet, geeze. and i like Popper.

      1. CaseStreet

        Me too.

    2. kingman 26

      HAHAHA!!

      Don’t lower yourself to their level Case!

    3. metsfan4decades

      Johan has a twitter account now.

      One of his first tweets:

      Thanks for the kind words. Rehab is going great. Can’t wait to get back on the mound!!!
      ***********************

      I don’t have a twitter account but for those who do, Johan’s is:

      johansantana

      1. kistics

        Justin Turner has a twitter account too..

        1. Ceetar

          as does Josh Thole, Matt den Dekker (Who i’m playing words with friends with) and Cory Vaughn (Who does tweeted that he’s bored and asked if anyone wants to do something in Port. St. Lucie)

          We’re roughly at the point where some of these prospects have had Twitter and Facebook accounts before they met their first pro scout.

          1. mrose

            how the hell do you play words with friends.. downloaded it and lost

          2. Ceetar

            It’s just like Scrabble only slightly different tile values and dictionary. then you enter a username of who you want to play with and tada, you waste time at work playing scrabble.

          3. mrose

            nice, whats your username lol

          4. mrose

            Ceet – did I find you?

          5. Ceetar

            yeah, that’s me.

      2. stickguy

        Shouldn’t Johan have used “I’m a man” instead?

        1. kistics

          He is a man!

  19. stickguy

    well, in the spirit of something positive, does bad philly news count?

    Just had the local news on and they had a report that Lidge is having a problem with his bicep tendon (did not hear the details to know what impact it is having on him playing).

    Then they showed Hollywood Hamels giving up 3 or so HRs to day.

    That, and a nice weather forecast, meant it wasn’t a bad day with the news at all!




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