" I can see clearly now !!"
Okay my fellow Mets fans it’s time to break out your crystal balls and don your wizards hat because I am going to ask you a question that is based solely on your opinion. No stats needed here, you won’t need your Bill James handbook or P.E.C.O.T.A stats in order to successfully answer this query.
The question I pose for you is – Who do you think will be the biggest surprise for the Mets this season ?
For me the answer is simple. I think that Chris Young will be able to revive his once promising career. So far during this Grapefruit Season he has shutdown the competition. He has allowed more than one run in a game just twice so far. His surgically repaired elbow so far has shown no signs of betraying him and he has been adapt at deceiving the opposition with a fast ball that has been clocked in the mid to high ’90′s. I honestly feel that if he gets run support, Chris will easily with 12- 15 games this season.
So who is your candidate for the Mets biggest surprise this season ?
And with that said… HERE COMES THE INFAMY !!!!
Mets alumni celebrating a birthday today includes:
Mets Director of Amateur Relations during the late ’80′s,Tommy Holmes would have been 94 today (1917) .
Mets number one pick in the 1980 Major League Baseball Amateur Draft, Billy Beane is 49 (1962). He never did pan out for the Mets, appearing only briefly with the team in ’84 and ’85. He did become one of Sandy Alderson’s biggest acolytes, becoming the successful G.M for the Oakland A’s.
Mets middle reliever from ’94-’95, Eric Gunderson is 45 (1966) .
One time “5 tool” outfield prospect, Alex Ochoa is 39 (1972) .
The New York Mets traded reserve catcher, J. C. Martin to the Chicago Cubs for for minor league catcher, Randy Bobb on March 29, 1970.
The New York Mets traded utility infielder, Leo Foster to the Boston Red Sox for minor league pitcher, Jim Burton on March 29, 1978.
The New York Mets released third baseman, Lenny Randle on March 29, 1979.
The New York Mets traded minor league pitchers, Jody Johnston and Steve Walker to the Los Angeles Dodgers for reserve outfielder, Mark Bradley on March 29, 1983.
The New York Mets traded middle reliever, Juan Acevedo to the St. Louis Cardinals for middle reliever, Rigo Beltran on March 29, 1998.
The New York Mets released outfielder, Joe Orsulak on March 29, 1998. This was the end of Joe’s comeback attempt with the Mets. He was a fan favorite with the team in the early ’90′s but he showed that he had nothing left in the tank.
The New York Mets released middle reliever, Rich Rodriguez on March 29, 2001. Rich was the Scott Schoeneweis of the ’90′s. Whenever he came into games he was booed mercilessly by the fans. The fact that he was once roommates with then G.M Steve Phillips didn’t help his cause either.
The New York Mets signed free agent reserve catcher, Kelly Stinnett on March 29, 2005.
And while you try to catch up on sleep from last night because you pondered the fate of Pat Misch, just remember that there are just 3 Bud Harrelson Days left until the Mets open the 2011 season against the Florida Marlins in Miami, and only 10 days until the Mets 2011 home opener against the Washington Nationals at Citi Field.
Mo Vaughn predicts that the Kansas City Royals will win it all this year !!!
23 comments
metsfan4decades
3/29/2011-7:30am at 7:30 am (UTC -4)
I too think Chris Young is a good choice for biggest surprise. If he remains healthy, starts about 28 games and looks as solid as he has all spring, he might be in the top mix for comeback player of the year.
I’m reading from Rubin:
Since 1993, only six teams have had more than one Rule 5 draft pick make the Opening Day roster, according to Stats Inc. And only one of those teams finished with a winning record.
Looks like we’ll be the 7th team. However, while I think Beato might stick all year, I’ll be surprised if Emaus sticks as the 2nd baseman all year.
I’d really like the biggest surprise to be Alderson signing Reyes to an extension mid season.
rustyjr
3/29/2011-7:33am at 7:33 am (UTC -4)
Excellent point – I too hope that sandy will re-sign Jose
ajgmets
3/29/2011-12:07pm at 12:07 pm (UTC -4)
I’d be hard pressed to argue against hoping for a surprising season for either of the Chris’ hurlers that the Mets have slotted in at the back end of the pitching rotation going into 2011 and would be thrilled to no end should either Young or Capuano (both would be asking too much) be able to post solid seasons of 175 innings pitched with 10 – 12 wins with limited injury related problems especially if the “anticipated” return of Johan Santana fails to come to fruition.
With that said, I have higher hopes and real expectations for the emergence of another candidate as Mets surprising player of 2011.
With the spring long buzz surrounding the Mets second base situation finally resolved, I have a gut feeling that rule 5 draftee Brad Emaus will have a season that will surprise the Mets faithful. The youngster, while he’ll be under the microscope to prove he belongs on the big league roster, seems to have decent understanding of the strike zone (drawing 7 walks while striking out 8 times in 45 spring at bats), has shown some pop in his bat *ripping a homer in the game following the release of Castillo and the kid has shown some base speed in swiping a pair of bags in his 22 game appearances. I don’t know that he’s a polished defender based on his limited exposure this spring but he’s done little to embarrass himself in the field and had a .968 fielding average over 400 minor league games which would indicate he’ll be an adequate keystone combo partner for Jose Reyes. If Emaus is able to relax and put up a .270/12/65 season, I think he’d have to be considered a very nice surprise for the 2011 edition of the Mets and a promising sign for the future.
The breaking stories of Jason Bay’s rib cage “discomfort” and Ronnie Paulino’s colon “issues” could bring to the forefront possible extended opportunities for catcher Mike Nickeas and outfielders Lucas Duda and even Fernando Martinez. While all would seem to be position fill-ins, I remember reading something about a first baseman named Wally Pipp once.
Thankfully we’ve reached the precipice of the 2011 season and it looks as if Carlos Beltran will play in a spring game today. Should he survive and be able to play opening day and four or five games per week all season with 80% of his historical statistical production, then that my friends would be the biggest surprise to me. Should this remarkable scenario occur, the Mets would be competitive and might just win 85 games?
Nice job Ed…
njstuckintx
3/29/2011-7:33am at 7:33 am (UTC -4)
If we’re pull stuff out of a hat, my 4 surprises would be as such:
- Havens is on the team by the AS break.
- for all his promise, Parnell needs more seasoning, gets sent down.
- Both Young and Cap stay healthy all year long, but Mejia is in the rotation as Pelf goes down for an extended period.
- Santana actually pitches this year, but not until the end of August.
metsfan4decades
3/29/2011-7:47am at 7:47 am (UTC -4)
….’as Pelf goes down for an extended period.’
Yikes! I hope not. While I think Pelf is pretty durable I can envision another long stretch this season where he slumps. Here’s hoping he’s smart enough to make adjustments this year where if he has a bad game it doesn’t continue for 8 more starts while he tries to ‘figure it out’.
metsfan4decades
3/29/2011-7:43am at 7:43 am (UTC -4)
On a side note, I’m also reading:
The Times reported Jason Isringhausen has been asked to stay behind in Florida when the Mets break camp, at least for a week or two in extended spring training. That would make it easier for the Mets to get Blaine Boyer on the roster. Of course, if Boyer would go to Buffalo, Manny Acosta could get on too and the Mets could hold onto all three.
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I’d like to know just what exactly ‘stay behind in FL’ means. Anyone?
Is this a polite way of saying he’ll accept a minor league assignment for a couple of weeks? —He doesn’t have to pass through waivers to accept a minor league assignment? I’m not exactly sure what ‘extended spring training’ entails.
I’m thinking it doesn’t mean he starts the season on the DL. The only way I can think of that we get to keep Boyer and Izzy is this scenario. I’m seeing Boyer has an ‘opt out’ if he’s not on the 25 man. If he doesn’t opt out, does that mean they can stash him in the minor leagues as well without going through waivers?
I need the ’40 Man Roster Assignment’ book for Dummies – LOL.
Best case scenario for the Mets but probably not for either pitcher. Although with Izzy he might not mind staying in FL for 2 more weeks. Especially since I’m seeing on Fri, they’re predicting a snow/rain mix up here.
rustyjr
3/29/2011-7:52am at 7:52 am (UTC -4)
I believe it’s ther way of keeping him in their control in case of a reliever going down with a injury – he has to prove that his elbow is still sound and can handle a heavy workload
TRS86
3/29/2011-8:26am at 8:26 am (UTC -4)
Based on my understanding you can ask someone with an injury to stay behind in extended spring training. It’s not a minor league deal and I am not sure there is even any teams there. Just rehabbing guys.
metsfan4decades
3/29/2011-9:00am at 9:00 am (UTC -4)
Thanks.
kingman 26
3/29/2011-8:16am at 8:16 am (UTC -4)
To me, it is definitely Josh Thole.
I see a very patient hitter, who hits to all fields, works counts, does not swing for the fences, and appears mature beyond his age. I think he will surprise both offensively and defensively.
Ceetar
3/29/2011-8:53am at 8:53 am (UTC -4)
I’m gonna say Ike. I think he’ll take a BIG step forward this year and people will no longer refer to him as a nice young player with potential and power, but will start saying things like “The Mets next 1Bman may still be in diapers”
metsfan4decades
3/29/2011-9:23am at 9:23 am (UTC -4)
I’m assuming we’ll know tomorrow if Evans gets claimed or not.
Toby Hyde did an indepth analysis of Evans/Harris and to a bit lesser extent, Hairston here:
http://www.metsminorleagueblog.com/keeping-willie-harris-to-say-goodbye-to-nick-evans/
He comes to the conclusion that it’s a better bet to hold onto Evans than Harris. I can only assume the FO is more worried about Beltran staying on the field the first half and would rather go with a platoon of Harris/Hairston in RF, if need be.
Toby’s conclusion at the end is worth the read: (one that I agree with as I never cared for Harris to begin with)
The Conclusion
Given that Willie Harris has been told that he’s going to make the team, and the report that Evans is headed for waivers, the Mets appear to have chosen Harris’ defense and ability to play center field as a Beltran/Pagan insurance policy over Evans’ right-handed pop. I get it.
I would have gone with Evans. His right-handed power off the bench has more tactical value on a daily basis than Harris’ soft left-handed bat and defense. Evans could have allowed Terry Collins to be very tactically aggressive with his flexible infield parts of Emaus, Hu and Murphy. There could be weeks where Harris gets no more than one start, or a pinch-running opportunity. However, Evans would be a dangerous pinch-hitting option nearly every night, and a great alternative to Ike Davis against any LHP. His presence would maximize the 25th roster spot. Harris is the very definition of a replacement level baseball player.
All off-season, the Mets front office has emphasized budget pickups with some upside like Chris Young, Chris Capuano, Hu, Emaus, Pedro Beato and Boyer. Regaining flexibility and options on the roster with an eye on the not-too-distant future, has been a big deal. Letting Evans go on waivers seems like a departure from the team’s strategy from the rest of the off-season. Moreover, as TPG points out in the comments below, Evans would be under the Mets’ control for the next five years, while Harris, who was signed on a minor league contract, would only be in the team’s employ for the 2011 season. Again, Evans is the long(er) term play.
Or maybe, Evans will clear waivers and report to AAA Buffalo at the end of this week and I will have wasted nearly 2,000 words on this topic.
TRS86
3/29/2011-10:11am at 10:11 am (UTC -4)
It’s interesting that Harris is considered a light bat. While his BA is not good at all he great pop. Remember this is a guy that had 10 HR in 262 PA last season. He is also a decent defender at multiple positions. Honestly I can’t see this as a Harris Evans debate as they are not competing for the same role. This was a Hairston Evans competition and Evans basically lost that before ST ever started.
oleosmirf
3/29/2011-10:16am at 10:16 am (UTC -4)
exactly. also when Murphy starts (which he will at least 1-2 times a week) you need a LHB off the bench and Evans over Harris would mean a bench of all RHB, with very poor splits against RHP.
metsfan4decades
3/29/2011-10:23am at 10:23 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, I realize it wasn’t Evans vs. Harris. Since it appeared it was Evans vs. Hairston I can understand the decision to go with Hairston.
I think Toby’s main point was this:
There could be weeks where Harris gets no more than one start, or a pinch-running opportunity. However, Evans would be a dangerous pinch-hitting option nearly every night, and a great alternative to Ike Davis against any LHP. His presence would maximize the 25th roster spot. Harris is the very definition of a replacement level baseball player.
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It’s all going to come down to how much Beltran is on the field/in the lineup the first half of the season. If you could count on him more often than note, I’d go with Evans. No way to ensure that though so I can understand to some extent Harris over Evans. I just don’t care that much for Harris’ defense (great catches against the Mets aside) and his bat doesn’t impress me. What’s to say Evans couldn’t hit 10 HRs in a season either?
metsfan4decades
3/29/2011-10:24am at 10:24 am (UTC -4)
Either way, it’s the 25 roster spot and probably not worth too much discussion. The turn over in that 25th spot is always very high over the season.
TRS86
3/29/2011-10:27am at 10:27 am (UTC -4)
Sure Evans could. Of course he had 1 HR in 37 PA last year. Also, are we really taking out Davis for a PH? How much rest does Davis need? Also, I am willing to bet that Harris would get many PH opportunity as a LH hitter on the bench. He would be behind Murphy the same way that Evans would be behind Hairston.
wannybackstra
3/29/2011-10:22am at 10:22 am (UTC -4)
Tpby seems to be advocating a highly unlikely scenario in which someone is always pinch hitting for the 2B late in games.
TRS86
3/29/2011-10:24am at 10:24 am (UTC -4)
Noticed that too. If in fact Emaus is subbed for wouldn’t that be by Murphy? Then you still have Hu for defense.
oleosmirf
3/29/2011-10:17am at 10:17 am (UTC -4)
biggest surprise: Carlos Beltran
saltygary
3/29/2011-10:23am at 10:23 am (UTC -4)
I’m with you Ruster, I believe Young will finally be healthy and he will have a quality year. And if Beltran doesn’t get carted off in a wheelchair this season I will be pleasantly surprised as well.
stickguy
3/29/2011-11:29am at 11:29 am (UTC -4)
First, Young had shoulder problems and surrgery. Capuano is the elbow guy!
tough call to pick one. So, i think I will go with Thole stepping up and becoming a solid catcher with surprising offense.
In no particular order, other choices were:
-Ike taking a big step up. he should also be hitting clean up for now.
-Pen becoming a positive aspect of the team again
-Back end of the rotation.
-Beltran revitalizing his career, and getting 400 PAs.
-Reyes signing an extension mid-year.
stickguy
3/29/2011-11:34am at 11:34 am (UTC -4)
More Evans? I like the guy and would not mind seeing him on the bench, but let’s be real, he is a fringe guy right now at best.
and the control issue IMO becomes much less important when he is out of options, unless the Mets want to keep paying him more each year soon. You can always find a fringe/bench/out of options type when you need one.
Speaking of which, sign max ramirez!
now, if evans goes somewhere else and becomes that next jayson Werth (who did not even become a starter until he was ~30), bummer, but odds are that doesn’t happen.