I let the first start slide and chalked it up to nerves or possibly just a bad start but could last night be a sign of things to come?
Mike Pelfrey looked horrible last night, 2 innings pitched, an error and to me, he just looked overwhelmed.
So what is it?
Nerves?
Pressure from being named a Number One Starter?
Mechanics?
Or just two really bad starts in a row.
I’m not pushing the Panic Button yet….yet.
But my question is: when do you think the Mets should begin to be concerned about Mike Pelfrey?
49 comments
njstuckintx
4/7/2011-9:40am at 9:40 am (UTC -4)
When do the ‘Fire Warthen’ chants start?
Concerned with him as a #1, absolutely. As a 3/4 type, no.
To me, his main concern will be salary in regards to return. I’m not saying trade him or anything, but lets revisit this come July and see where this team is in the standings. With Niese, Gee, Harvey and Mejia down the line, maybe at that time looking to sell should be something that’s at least considered.
stickguy
4/7/2011-10:56am at 10:56 am (UTC -4)
He is becoming Joe Blanton. Basically, an innings guy for the 4 spot in a good rotation.
Fine, and something teams need, but like you say, not worth the salary he will command on the open market after the 2012 season. Hell, Blanton is a financial albatross to the Phils, they couldn’t manage to trade him to anybody due to his contract.
most likely, Pelf is here next year on an arb deal (at least $6mill if he pitches all season), and that is it. Only question is does he walk as a FA or get traded first.
TRS86
4/7/2011-11:12am at 11:12 am (UTC -4)
Blanton has one 200 inning season, 2005. Pelfrey already has two in the last 3 years.
stickguy
4/7/2011-11:33am at 11:33 am (UTC -4)
semantics. 200 is just a reference number, not something significant.
firstly, blanton also had 230 IP in 2007. and the next 2 years he had 197 and 195, compared to pelf at 200 and 184.
last year Blanton did not get as many starts, and fell to 175 (vs. 204).
now, if you want some stats (saber and otherwise), how about this (era/whip/era+):
4.33/1.35/98
4.41/1.47/93
even adjusting cor comparable ages, at 27 Blanton had an ERA+ of 105. Last year, Plef was at 107.
so yes, career up to this point Pelfrey IS Joe Blanton (just not quite as good, and far less consistent).
primary difference is 3 years of age, and a lower salary.
so why isn’t it reasonable to predict that in 2 years, Pelf will get a contract he won’t earn? And if you think he continues on the career arc, trade him after this season and be the A’s, not the Phils, with this player.
TRS86
4/7/2011-11:48am at 11:48 am (UTC -4)
Nice catch, I missed the 2007.
As to Blanton’s contract. Honestly I don’t think it’s as bad as it’s made out to be. 3/24 actually seems about right for him.
TRS86
4/7/2011-11:51am at 11:51 am (UTC -4)
Also last 3 years Blanton’s ERA+ 92, Pelfrey’s 99. That’s a big difference in terms of ERA+.
stickguy
4/7/2011-12:06pm at 12:06 pm (UTC -4)
they are the same guy. Blanton is just 3 years further along the career path. Pelf is following nicely, just much less consistent year to year.
njstuckintx
4/7/2011-11:22am at 11:22 am (UTC -4)
Exactly. So, do you extend him for a couple years at 6 per?, do you trade him for prospects sooner than later?, do you do the Arb game with him?
Now, this is a big if, but IF this team puts up horrible numbers and is considering selling off Beltran, maybe Reyes, Frod, and even Young or Cap, do you at least not listen on Pelf? You have too. And I’m not saying he sucks & should be banished from the land. I do think we need to be honest with our home grown yipper and make the intelligent move, be it extending him at reasonable money or looking at the other options, whatever they may be.
TRS86
4/7/2011-11:32am at 11:32 am (UTC -4)
The problem is replacing a 200 inning 4.00 or under guy is not an easy task. To me trading him this year is giving up on the next. There are no replacements that would be cheaper on the open market. Besides I don’ t think he nets a top pitching prospect anyway.
stickguy
4/7/2011-11:34am at 11:34 am (UTC -4)
of course you do. If you are trading most of your actual talent like that, you are giong to be rebuilding for a few years. And you don’t rebuild around a guy like Pelf, at full FA salary prices.
Neise, hell yeah.
TRS86
4/7/2011-9:52am at 9:52 am (UTC -4)
I am really tired of hearing this debate about him being the # 1. The Mets do not have a #1. They don’t have any one even close. They could have picked any of the 4 guys that have pitched so far to be the opening day starter and it would not have mattered. Now the 2nd time through and the “matchups” are already screwed up.
As for being concerned after two starts? Sure. Worried? A little. Panicking? LOL.
I know it’s the nature of a blog to overreact to every game but as I mentioned yesterday we are setting ourselves up for a long year if we are going to get so emotionally attached to every win and every loss. Lets just sit back and try to enjoy what appears to be an easy to route for team full of guys with something to prove.
Also, as for trading Pelfrey, only way they do that is if they have officially given up on not only this year but next as well. The FA market is barren and dry. Finding someone to replace an under 4.00 ERA guy that pitches 200 innings is not only expensive but actually hard to find.
stickguy
4/7/2011-10:59am at 10:59 am (UTC -4)
not a chance in the work he goes under 4.00 this year.
and the reason to trade him is exactly what you said. Hard to find what you perceive him to be on the FA market, so if you get a team desperate, maybe they overpay (in talent).
\
a 3/4 innings eater isn’t going to make or break this team next year, and he probably ain’t back in 2013 anyway, so maybe the FO will be proactive for a change.
TRS86
4/7/2011-11:01am at 11:01 am (UTC -4)
How in the heck can we determine after 2 starts if he is going to have an ERA under 4.00?
Also, a 3/4 innings eater can very well be the difference in playoffs and non playoffs for 2012.
stickguy
4/7/2011-11:05am at 11:05 am (UTC -4)
well, we still don’t know if the FO is punting to rebuild or not. Put Pelf in the category of trade him too if they can’t afford reyes and move him. Along with Bay. Pagan too. Do it right if you are going to do it at all.
TRS86
4/7/2011-11:09am at 11:09 am (UTC -4)
Still disagree with this philosophy. There is no need for an all or nothing rebuilding phase. This is not the Pirates. We still have money to spend, just maybe not Philly money. We are not a team full of old aging vets. Even without Reyes you still have plenty to build around. I hope they keep Reyes but again it’s about net return. The same discussion you are using as to why you entertain the notion of trading Pelfrey is the same reason you entertain the idea of trading Reyes.
stickguy
4/7/2011-11:36am at 11:36 am (UTC -4)
we think there should be money to spend on him, and that payroll should not drop anywhere near 100mill or below
But, we are not the ones controlling the checkbook, and if they think we have to, then yes, they are rebuilding just like the pirates. Just with a few heavy LT contracts tied around their necks.
TRS86
4/7/2011-11:38am at 11:38 am (UTC -4)
NY nor MLB would allow the Mets to have a payroll that low.
Again, agree to disagree on this one. Pelfrey does not bring you top talent in a trade has another year of control at a reasonable price and would be expensive to replace.
Reyes could bring you top talent in a trade, is a FA at the end of the year and would also be expensive to replace.
stickguy
4/7/2011-11:41am at 11:41 am (UTC -4)
neither NY (meaning the fans) or MLB can do a damn thing about it. Well, the fans can not show up at the games, but if Fred says they can’t afford to keep the payroll, it will get slashed.
how can MLB refuse to let them gut/rebuild, after plenty of other teams have been doing it for years? They can’t, and no way they are going to try and come in, take the team away, then spend tons of other teams money on new players!
stickguy
4/7/2011-11:43am at 11:43 am (UTC -4)
well, which way does it go?
If Pelf is not worth top talent, then if the Mets need another guy like him, trade some of their non-top talent (got plenty in the system!) for him.
TRS86
4/7/2011-11:44am at 11:44 am (UTC -4)
I think you underestimate the power of Selig and the MLBPA. It is very important to MLB for the NL NY team to have a high payroll. Lets just wait and see. I am willing to bet that we never see a payroll under 100M.
TRS86
4/7/2011-11:45am at 11:45 am (UTC -4)
For a 1 year rental?
stickguy
4/7/2011-10:54am at 10:54 am (UTC -4)
mental midget, and my bet is he is pitching hurt, and that is what is screwing up his mechanics (dropping his arm slot, pushing the ball etc.).
and based on history, I do think the “stress” of OD screwed him up. Maybe trying too hard to live up to it? Who knows, but this is the last guy in the rotation I want to see in a late season must win game, let alone the playoffs.
Send him to the corn field where no one will ever pay attention to him again (the Royals), and let him find himself.
He does seem to put up alternate dreadful years in odd # seasons.
also, his peripheral #s have always been a bit of a concern (whip, K rate), indicating he lives a bit on the edge, is is really dependent on luck and defense. Combine that with being a 1 trick pony (a FB) that he does not even use effectively much of the time, once that FB losing a little life and/or command (as you are seeing now), it is BP time.
metsfan4decades
4/7/2011-10:57am at 10:57 am (UTC -4)
I think it’s a little early for the Trade Pelfrey discussion.
Even if he doesn’t much improve or take that next step, as long as he’s got some consistency, I see him as a valuable cog in the rotation.
As njtx pointed out though, the money will be the question. If he’s going to get paid as a #1, he needs to be a #1.
TRS86
4/7/2011-11:06am at 11:06 am (UTC -4)
He will never get paid as a #1. He’s not a #1, has never pretended to be a #1 and would be laughed at for requesting #1 pay.
He’s a mid-rotation starter with a Mark Buherle ceiling. Thing is those guys are very valuable and expensive on the open market.
njstuckintx
4/7/2011-12:07pm at 12:07 pm (UTC -4)
Can you see him signing an Oliie like contract though?
stickguy
4/7/2011-12:11pm at 12:11 pm (UTC -4)
with Boras, yes. Some team will bite on it.
TRS86
4/7/2011-12:31pm at 12:31 pm (UTC -4)
At this point no. If he produces this year and next year similarly to what he did last year, sure.
metsfan4decades
4/7/2011-11:01am at 11:01 am (UTC -4)
LOL…The Eddie Kranepool Society guy is fed up with the whinning Met fans.
http://www.kranepoolsociety.com/2011/04/07/i-got-a-lot-of-problems-with-you-people-and-now-youre-going-to-hear-about-it/
http://twitter.com/kranepool/status/55777111297884161
I’m glad I don’t have a twitter account. I like the Dugout just fine. I’m not sure I could keep up with an abbreviated debate during the game that twitter seems to be limited to.
TRS86
4/7/2011-11:14am at 11:14 am (UTC -4)
According to fangraphs Pelfrey has been “worth” 13.3, 7.4 and 11.5M the last 3 seasons.
kistics
4/7/2011-11:27am at 11:27 am (UTC -4)
I think trading Pelf timing has already past. I thought that he should have been in a package to get Halladay, but that’s another discussion.
I’m not going to panic on Pelf based on 2 outings. Sure his outings were really really bad. But I also saw his dominant outings last season. Pelf doesn’t pitch necessarily well against NL East on the road. And to start his first 2 games on the road against the 2 teams that gave him the most trouble is probably not the best sample size to look at.
I think the pitch selections were bad and game plans were bad. I have not seen Pelf throw effective sinker this season. And that’s his bread and butter. It almost seems like he’s trying to become a strike out pitcher. I think he needs to trust his pitches and let the guys behind him play defense. I really hope Warthen, Thole and Pelf get their heads together and figure this thing out.
TRS86
4/7/2011-11:31am at 11:31 am (UTC -4)
Agreed. If he is still pitching like this at home in his next 2 starts then I will be worried. For now, count me slightly concerned.
njstuckintx
4/7/2011-11:33am at 11:33 am (UTC -4)
Is that on pelf or the catcher or the coaches then for the pitch selection/game plan?
kistics
4/7/2011-11:38am at 11:38 am (UTC -4)
I would think it’s all three of them. I believe it’s Thole’s job to keep Pelf on track with the game plan. And if they need adjust their game plan, then they should do so with Warthen involved.
stickguy
4/7/2011-11:39am at 11:39 am (UTC -4)
coaches 1st, since they are supposed to design the game plan.
catcher next IMO if he goes off the reservation to do his own thing. Pitcher last. If they are following the catcher, I think it is best. If they are shaking off the game plan, then the catcher and PC should go out to discuss.
in this case, we have no way of knowing who came up with the plan (or lack of) that they were following.
TRS86
4/7/2011-11:46am at 11:46 am (UTC -4)
Lets see, uh Pelfrey, Pelfrey,
coaches, Pelfrey.stickguy
4/7/2011-11:50am at 11:50 am (UTC -4)
pelfrey can be blamed for poorly executing his pitches, but not for the game plan or what the catcher called.
TRS86
4/7/2011-11:52am at 11:52 am (UTC -4)
Pelfrey ultimately makes the decision to throw the pitch, not the cigarette.
kistics
4/7/2011-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
cigarette?
TRS86
4/7/2011-11:56am at 11:56 am (UTC -4)
Blaming the coaches for Pelfrey’s issues to me is like blaming the cigarette for cancer.
stickguy
4/7/2011-12:04pm at 12:04 pm (UTC -4)
Didn’t you learn anything from Bull Durham? Just throw the ball meat, and don’t shake off the catcher.
Pelf is nuke Laloosch actually, just without the K ability!
kistics
4/7/2011-12:06pm at 12:06 pm (UTC -4)
I think if Pelf is going away from the game plan and is struggling, then it’s really the catcher and coach’s job to get him straight. Yes, at the end of the day it’s really the pitcher who shakes off the pitches and execute. But you just can’t hang him out there when he’s going away from the game plan AND not getting shelled.
OR maybe it WAS the game plan to use his #3 and 4 pitches as the element of surprise. And it just didn’t work. And if this is the case, I think Warthen is more to blame than Pelf.
njstuckintx
4/7/2011-12:08pm at 12:08 pm (UTC -4)
blame the bullet, not the gun, nor the shooter!
kistics
4/7/2011-12:10pm at 12:10 pm (UTC -4)
I meant to say ‘getting shelled’.
kistics
4/7/2011-12:11pm at 12:11 pm (UTC -4)
So you blame the ball?
TRS86
4/7/2011-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
No I blame the one that is throwing the ball ineffectively.
oleosmirf
4/7/2011-12:26pm at 12:26 pm (UTC -4)
no I think this was to be expected. We all know Pelfrey has the yips and he struggles on the road against NL East teams. If this becomes a problem at home or on the road against other divisions then there is cause for concern but history suggests Pelfrey was not going to pitch well
TRS86
4/7/2011-12:29pm at 12:29 pm (UTC -4)
Bingo.
stickguy
4/7/2011-12:51pm at 12:51 pm (UTC -4)
I have a concern that someone that is this far along into his career still have mental issues (yips) playing against division foes on the road. Pitching well elsewhere almost makes it worse, meaning that it really is because he is a head case.
njstuckintx
4/7/2011-2:14pm at 2:14 pm (UTC -4)
Was his name-o.