I dont know if you have heard but Jose Reyes is eligible to file for free agency this year. As perhaps one of the most dynamic players to ever come through the Mets system and don the uniform, he represent a very interesting dilemma…especially in this day and age. There is one style of thought, that the Mets need to do whatever it takes to resign Reyes. The argument for this is undeniable, there is and probably never will be a player like Jose. He has his own crowd anthem that sounds as if it belongs in a jam packed soccer arena for goodness sakes. These folks continue to argue that by letting Reyes go, we will be setting ourselves back further than we are now. The most extreme of folk that fall into this line of thought believe we should go one step further if we cannot re-sign Reyes and just blow up the team ala a Marlins style fire sale. Naturally, there is another style of thought among Met fans that is open to the possibility of not re-signing Reyes but to capitalize on his elite status among the SS position to bring in pieces that can help improve the team overall. As any Met fan can tell you, the Mets do not have a single problem to point too but rather they have several. I have my opinions on this and ill be sharing them out loud in this post but to one point im sure we can all agree…we sure do not want to be Sandy Alderson right now.
Quite possibly, the only active player that can come close to being compared to Jose Reyes is Carl Crawford. Carl is 2 years older than Reyes, but his career numbers are more or less where Jose Reyes’ are:
Carl Crawford career numbers:
GS: 1204
R: 768
H: 1487
2B: 216
3B: 105
HR: 104
RBI: 593
SB: 411
BA: .295
OBP: .336
Jose Reyes career numbers:
GS: 923
R: 643
H: 1139
2B: 196
3B: 85
HR: 75
RBI: 384
SB: 335
BA: .286
OBP: .335
Now, these numbers are of course skewed in regard to Reyes’ injuries the past few years but more or less they line up with Carl Crawfords career numbers. No doubt, Jose Reyes’ agent Peter Greenburg will come to the table with these numbers. The reason being of course is his job to get his client the most money possible for his abilities and considering the person he is comparing to just signed a 7 years/$142 million dollar deal, you better believe he will not ask for a dime less(he needs the commission to buy a new mansion…#winning). The structure of Carl’s deal is what we have come to expect this day and age, a back loaded contract where presumeably his primary asset will be in decline(speed):
11:$14M, 12:$19.5M, 13:$20M, 14:$20.25M, 15:$20.5M, 16:$20.75M, 17:$21M
Whats even more dangerous than this, Reyes’ agent could be asking for more. While Carl is very comparable to Jose Reyes’, the reality is they dont play the same position. Carl is an outfielder, which is generally a position with alot of depth while Jose Reyes plays Shortstop, a position that generally lacks depth. Alot of teams have very mediocre shortstops and rely on Carl Crawford type numbers from other positions. Jose Reyes is no doubt in the top 5 short stops in Major League Baseball and that kind of premium will most definitely manifest itself in the negotiation table.
Now heres the fun part…playing GM. Heres the factors that I believe Sandy must juggle with when dealing with the Jose Reyes contract negotiation issue:
- Payroll: The Mets lose alot of salary space due to the contract expiration of Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo and Carlos Beltran. Assuming none of them get resigned or offered Arbitration(and accepted), the Mets have a $66 million dollar obligation to players. Alot of this are raises to the current contracts of Johan, Bay and Wright. This figure is not including the players that most likely will be offered arbitration. With the uncertainty of the Wilpons issue plus the total salary of the Mets when arbitration is all said and done, along with some stop gaps that will most likely be signed for depth, Sandy has alot of more questions than answers at this point. When your drawing 25k for a double header in New York…business is anything but usual.
- David Wright: David will also be a free agent in 2012. To me, he is a must sign. David is a career .305 hitter and has averaged over 100 RBI’s and 25 home runs a year(2009 withstanding). These numbers are hard to find on a constant basis. David is an all around good player and will cost a pretty penny.
- Farm System: While I defer to Bryan for a better barometer on this, the Mets farm system is about middle of the pack. There isnt a Jayson Heyward or Mike Stanton type player in the farm system. Most of this im sure had to do with adhering to the slot preferences set by Bud but the real issue is the Mets may have to rely more and more on farm talent if the money issues are as bad as it is being reported. Selling Reyes as I did earlier will fetch a few nice prospect that can perhaps fill the Mets holes with better talent than we already have available at a cheaper rate.
My feelings on this are simple, if the Mets are pretty much out of the race come the trade deadline, Sandy must strongly consider trading Reyes. I love Reyes as much as the next Met fan but I will not let my emotions cloud the fact that this team could benefit hugely by what a Jose Reyes package could yield. This is of course assuming Sandy is a much better negotiator than his predecessor and Jose Reyes wants a contract similar or more expensive than Carl Crawford’s. I know the constant argument is that this will go down wrong with the fan base due to his home grown player status and Jose is a very popular player. Both im sure are very true but ill tell you one thing that fans love more than Reyes…winning. If Sandy can find a good trade deal with pieces that can build a more competitive team top to bottom that will result in the loss of Jose Reyes, than im sure the fan base will be on board. Jose Reyes is a dynamic player and there will never be another one like him but his stats are replaceable, his position is replaceable. I dont know if such a package exists but im sure there are several teams that will be interested in Jose’s talents. Mets are in the rare position of selector…a position that can take the Mets to a whole other level. The fall back option of course is offering arbitration and collecting a draft pick but as Kistics astutely pointed out, due to Reyes’ injuries he may not be a Type A. If thats the case, the best the Mets can get is a first round pick in the supplemental round…which would suck pretty hard. The Mets have the 13, 44, 71 and 101 picks in the draft coming up. Can you imagine getting a package of top prospects plus good solid picks in the draft now that we will not pay slot…Mets may make a clean break from the pack in regards to its farm system in just 3 months. This is not a “I hate Jose” thing or anything of the sort. Im looking at the long term view of this team and given the circumstances that surround the Mets these days, as Obama would say “we have to win the future”.
Ill make no bones about it, this may be one of the biggest decisions in Sandys tenure here. I do not expect everyone to agree with my assessment or my point of view. What I do expect is a healthy debate about what the Mets should do regarding one of its best players. The same debate that im sure rages on every day in the new Mets front office.
9 comments
njstuckintx
4/15/2011-4:48pm at 4:48 pm (UTC -4)
Shortstop vs. Outfield.
stickguy
4/15/2011-5:00pm at 5:00 pm (UTC -4)
couple points:
- under payroll, none of those guys can be offered arbitration, since 2 have been released and the other has it in his contract!
- DW has a team option for 2013 too.
- Wright and Santana only get relatively small raises for 2012 (about 2.5mill total)
- Crawford I still don’t understand that deal. But, Jose will get something high. Werth money? Probably. But, that is market value if you want to play in the elite FA market.
- I am one of the “lunatic fringe” that thinks if they punt Reyes, they need to go all the way and punt everyone but Wright and young building blocks. At this point, that means Bay (please God!), and probably Pagan. But, really it just means Bay.
and the reason for that is, if they don’t sign Jose it will be 99.5% money (channeling my inner MF4D here), and they will not be signing any other FAs of note, or taking on replacement salary. So the idea of replacing his production elsewhere is likely a scam, and they won’t be making it up at SS, unless Flores makes a huge leap this eyar.
Ceetar
4/15/2011-5:01pm at 5:01 pm (UTC -4)
Sign him or else.
In fact, it seems likely if you don’t, you’ll lose money.
it’s easy. sign him.
soon.
stickguy
4/15/2011-5:03pm at 5:03 pm (UTC -4)
I agree that they could easily lose the net savings in payroll.
and as TRS loves to say, there is plenty of money for him, even with cutting payroll 30mill.
basically, you are giving him castillo’s salary, plus a little bit of ollies, and pocketing Beltrans.
and if K rod manages to not vest, even more saved!
stickguy
4/15/2011-5:02pm at 5:02 pm (UTC -4)
I will say though, what they do with Reyes will likely be a defining moment for the Alderson dynasty, and will set the tone for years to come.
metsfan4decades
4/15/2011-7:12pm at 7:12 pm (UTC -4)
This and I also believe we’ll know a little more truth on just how much ‘broke’ the Mets really are.
saltygary
4/15/2011-6:51pm at 6:51 pm (UTC -4)
Nice assessment Dirt Dog.
In the past there have been many fans that have been wanting to break up the core and barring Wright Reyes’s had the best return value. I just don’t feel there would be much backlash as long as it wasn’t a salary dump.
If Reyes can stay healthy this year I would like the team to explore the trade. We have been BURNED on so many BS contracts why would a Reyes re-up be any different? For all we know about the guy with leg issues in his early career that forced him to run differently to all the other stuff the last couple of years, do you really want the team to throw over a 100m and 7 years to him? The production can come from other positions at less cost which allows the team to invest more funds into other areas.
I love Jose, he will go down as my favorite Met for this era but it’s time to put sentiment aside and do whatever it takes to get those blue and orange shirts to win.
metsfan4decades
4/15/2011-7:11pm at 7:11 pm (UTC -4)
Good ready, Dirty. You make some good points. I just don’t agree with the conclusion though.
My thoughts:
- if traded mid season, Reyes is a half year rental. What kind of prospects can we possibly expect with that kind of deal? I think we’d be selling low there. And I’m going with the premise that a trade and extension is not happening b/c Reyes will probably want to go FA, I’m sure – and pick his team.
- Letting him walk at the end of the season: if Type A, yes we get 2 picks. Even if we pick smart, not seeing the fruits of that for several years.
- I stand by my opinion if Reyes is having a good year and the Mets don’t resign him it’s about the money and nothing but the money – lack thereof. Based on this, trading him or letting him walk means we probably go instantly backwards for a few years since we won’t be signing any ‘production’ bats either to replace him. Same with quality pitching.
- I’m leaning towards Stick’s opinion on if Reyes goes, money will be tight, might as well start the rebuilding process now.
Obviously, I’d like Reyes resigned.
metsfan4decades
4/15/2011-7:42pm at 7:42 pm (UTC -4)
Also just wanted to say….this is why this is my favorite Mets blog, the first one I check in with everyday and actually throughout the day.
Between these in depth analysis and opinion pieces from several author’s Rusty’s morning Infamy, On the Farm, the minors review and so much more it’s one stop shopping for all things Mets.