The Week That Was: The Mets limped out of their disappointing home debut series with a poor showing against the Rockies. The first three games were close affairs, with the Mets holding leads in all of them, but losing three 1-run games. Poor starting pitching doomed the team in all three games.
Game four was also tight, until Brad Emaus, continuing his hugely disappointing season, failed to turn a textbook double play, and this opened the proverbial floodgates, leading to a 9-4 drubbing. Capuano kept the rancid week going for the starters, with another weak outing.
This game seemed to sap a lot of the remaining spirit from the team. They were given a respite with another rainout Friday, then largely sleepwalked through a doubleheader sweep in Atlanta. Carrasco was about what should have been expected, but aside from one bad Misch pitch, the bullpen looked good. Game two featured yet another Pelfrey disaster, followed by more good work from the pen. The lowlight of Saturday had to be the incredible 3 singles-for-35 AB performance from Reyes/Pagan/Wright/Beltran/Davis.
Overall, the six losses demonstrated what many felt would be the way this season would go-some offense, decent bullpen performances, but terrible starting pitching which would fatally handicap the team.
——————————————————————————————
Gee To The Rescue: To the team’s credit, they are indeed reacting and reacting fast. Dillon Gee was called up to start Sunday in Atlanta, and picked up right where he left off in 2010. While not overpowering, Gee is composed and professional, and most definitely needs to stay in the rotation until he pitches himself out of it; should Young return soon, the career mediocrity Capuano must go first.
Collins treated this game as a must-win, and can be excused for doing so. Going into an off day with an 8-game skid and an 0-7 week could have been disastrous for this clearly fragile team’s psyche. The win may not turn the season around, but it surely made the plane ride home more pleasant, and will have the team in better spirits for the upcoming homestand.
Despite the terrible start, the continuing change we see has to be applauded. One can hope that Bay will return very soon, that Gee will continue to exceed expectations, and that Collins will continue to experiment and take risks to right this ship.
——————————————————————————————
Pagan’s WAR: At this point, WAR for Pagan might actually stand for Weak As a Regular. Or it might be relevant if the replacement player was to be Timmy Lupus. Let us hope that Pagan’s offense does not indeed become 2011’s classic case for the limits of sabermetrics, as Bay’s defense was in 2010.
Pagan seems to have regressed and continued his mediocre play of late 2010; the hope here is that it is a slow start, and not simply a regression to being the bench player he had always been prior to last year. Should his weak play continue, without a serious resurgence from Beltran and good production from Bay, the team’s offense will be crippled.
——————————————————————————————
Did the Mets Really Try That Hard to Avoid Playing Two Saturday? According to on-air reports from both FOX and SNY, the Mets apparently made serious appeals to both MLB and the Players’ Association to oppose the Braves’ insistence on a Saturday doubleheader after the Friday rainout. This is, according to rule and custom, the option of the home team.
Yes, the team has injury problems; yes, the team is perilously short on pitching. Boo hoo. The team also had Tuesday and Friday off due to rain; and the coming Monday was a scheduled day off. Three off days in a seven day period. And did they actually desperately try to avoid playing two on Saturday?
If so, one has to wonder whether other Met teams would have done this. Should there be a player in the clubhouse who screamed at this apparent weakness? Suggested that the team toughen up and not appear to be incredible whiners to the rest of the league?
One can be forgiven for wondering.
——————————————————————————————
The Week To Come: The Mets come home to play six against the other NL last place teams. This is followed by three in DC with the Nats. The team returns to Queens, after a fine win, to play teams we should all continue to believe the Mets are better than. Should they win each series and go to DC having won 5 of 7, they would truly have something to build on. But as the always wise Hazmet suggested in the comments section, let’s “Hope they focus on winning 1 inning at a time and don’t look at the homestand as a whole. They’re not good enough to do that yet.”
The matchups with Houston show the Mets facing three pitchers boasting stats eerily similar to their own train wreck of a rotation.
The time to get well is clearly now. Time to show toughness, to be aggressive, to hit with runners on base, and for starters to go six and allow three runs or less.
Let’s get it done, starting Tuesday!
72 comments
metsfan4decades
4/17/2011-10:07pm at 10:07 pm (UTC -4)
Week in Review = Awful.
Nice article, Kingman.
I’ve always liked Gee. Not over powering stuff but what he lacks there he makes up for in pitching smart. Here’s a kid who gets the call up on Sat at noon, catches a flight out at 3pm, gets stuck in Philly for hours when everything was delayed due to weather, and gets into Atlanta with 1am with no luggage.
Had to borrow a mitt from Parnell, spikes from Thole which were a half a size too big and clothes from Nickeas. Yikes! I would have been exhausted and beyond stressed.
Gee puts it all out of his mind and gives it and all out effort. Best start since Young’s last start.
So I agree, leave him in the rotation until he pitches his way out. Capuano says he’s got no problem being the swing man.
This upcoming series with Houston? I guess we’re going to find out soon enough just which team really does have the worst starters and worst record.
stickguy
4/17/2011-11:15pm at 11:15 pm (UTC -4)
I like Gee too. wonder how long he can keep it up, but he does seem to be a smart guy. Too bad you can’t transplant his brain into Pelfs body.
I am also interested in seeing Cahoon. in some ways, a LH Gee, and also seems to be the classic control lefty type (beurleigh (sp?), Petite, etc.) Not a huge FB, but effective.
Dirtysanchez
4/18/2011-8:29am at 8:29 am (UTC -4)
This is quickly becoming my favorite article, keep it up king
What a horrible week…hopefully this was the worst of it and we can focus on the short term goal of .500
njstuckintx
4/18/2011-9:08am at 9:08 am (UTC -4)
What horrible content to have to recap. To be honest, didn’t want to read this, just for the fact we’ve had to go through it once, why should i be a masochist as well… Anyway, my point is this: Nice write up Kingman. Keep it up.
kingman 26
4/18/2011-9:37am at 9:37 am (UTC -4)
THANK YOU to you, Dirty and MF4D!
I wanted to come up with something new that was not being done.
Truly appreciate the comments, and I really like doing this—I am seriously going to try to do it every week all year.
metsfan4decades
4/18/2011-10:08am at 10:08 am (UTC -4)
Looking forward to it, Kingman.
kingman 26
4/18/2011-10:14am at 10:14 am (UTC -4)
To be perfectly honest, even if just you three were reading and enjoying it, that would clearly make it worth my time to do this.
I have gotten too busy to have time to post as often as I used to, but as I can combine my bloviating pontifications in with a summary of the week’s events which might be useful, this is a perfect vehicle for me!
Ceetar
4/18/2011-9:23am at 9:23 am (UTC -4)
Of course, limited sample size being what it is, it’s really impossible to draw any conclusions about Pagan. His numbers are clearly indictive of a slump, and they’re far below even his worst years, so it’s pretty obvious they won’t continue. Evaluating him now is as silly as evaluating Tulowiski based solely on his 4games against the Mets.
Nothing wrong with complaining to the league about the DH. It made a mess of their rotation as a result of cramming games into that short a span of time. Teams whine to the league all the time. Someone whined to them last year about the Mets putting Ollie on the DL. (Although why no one complained about Hughes last week that I heard is beyond me) The best part about baseball is you don’t have silly things like clock management and unsportsmanlike conduct penalties messing with the actual physical play. Manipulating the schedule to your advantage is something that you don’t often get a chance to do in baseball. Especially when you have the added benefit of your team having a guy returning from injury to slot in anyway, and your opponent losing one to injury requiring a seventh starter.
metsfan4decades
4/18/2011-9:28am at 9:28 am (UTC -4)
I asked the same question yesterday about Perez and Hughe’s DL stint.
Didn’t know ‘dead arm’ was a legitimate injury. Didn’t hear a peep out of anyone when, just b/c Hughes has been awful and his velocity is down, they DL him. Heck, if we had known it was that easy, we could have DL’d Ollie for the second half of last year and had a real arm in that BP.
kingman 26
4/18/2011-9:40am at 9:40 am (UTC -4)
1–Pagan played all day last year for the first time in his career and his offense dropped off a cliff in August and September. The “small sample” gets larger every day, and when a player with Pagan’s history starts off the year with play like this, it is most definitely cause for concern.
2–Doubleheaders like this are the decision of the home team. That’s how baseball works. Complaining about it–and being quickly laughed off–accomplishes absolutely nothing (as there was NO chance of anyone acting on it) except–AGAIN–making the Mets look like a soft, whiny bunch of guys who don’t want to play….the reference to your man-love Ollie could not be less relevant and more meaningless.
“Manipulating the schedule to your advantage is something that you don’t often get a chance to do in baseball.”
PRECISELY. That’s why the Braves did what they did!
HELLO!!!
Ceetar
4/18/2011-9:50am at 9:50 am (UTC -4)
When a player with Pagan’s numbers, Frenchy’s numbers, Pujols numbers, or Valdez’s numbers, gets off to a hot/cold/tepid start, in what amounts to an extremely limited sample size, it means next to nothing.
Who’s to say there was no chance of anyone acting on it? Who’s to say the league/union didn’t take note? It’s politics. The Mets express their dislike of the way this situation is, and maybe they reference it the next time they deal with them.
And things like that happen all around the game, on every level from team to player. They may play a game in protest, even though they no there is no chance the league is going to overturn the call they think the umps blew and have them replay it. Players bitch about calls on the hope that the ump will give them a ‘make up call’ on a later pitch/AB.
kingman 26
4/18/2011-9:59am at 9:59 am (UTC -4)
You are comparing Pagan’s career with Pujols’.
Thank you again for the inimitable geyser of unparalleled humor you graciously provide.
Ceetar
4/18/2011-10:20am at 10:20 am (UTC -4)
no, i didn’t do that. you just didn’t read.
But sure, I’m sure Pagan will never get another hit against a lefthander again. That’s just who he is right?
wannybackstra
4/18/2011-10:43am at 10:43 am (UTC -4)
I don’t think Kingman is suggesting that Pagan will hit .169 for the season. I think what he is saying is that when you take the end of Pagan’s season along with the beginning of this one, you have to wonder whether he’s a .300 hitter or a .250 hitter.
Why are you taking everything so literally?
Ceetar
4/18/2011-10:55am at 10:55 am (UTC -4)
Sorry, I forgot I’m supposed to make up conclusions based on limited sample sizes and statistics, not take them for what they literally mean.
Have you heard of something called arbitrary end points?
kingman 26
4/18/2011-11:02am at 11:02 am (UTC -4)
WHY do you do this?
Why are you arguing with Wanny, who is MUCH more intelligent, knowledgeable, and sensible than you?
Have you heard of something called having a base of knowledge and combining it with common sense?
wannybackstra
4/18/2011-11:02am at 11:02 am (UTC -4)
You realize by basing your “opinion” on only the months Pagan played well that you’re also using arbitrary end points?
Are you permitted to ignore that the last 2.5 months of his major league performance has been pretty lousy?
kingman 26
4/18/2011-11:10am at 11:10 am (UTC -4)
This is just not fair.
It is 1987 Mike Tyson fighting Dennis the Menace.
Ceetar
4/18/2011-11:18am at 11:18 am (UTC -4)
Actually, I was basing my ‘opinion’ on the statistic fact of Pagans entire career with the Mets, and also his entire major league career.
By picking the end points that support your argument is also why you’re incapable of seeing that the Mets will in fact win more than the 50 games they’re projected to right now. You treat the slumps as fact and pretend that the winning stretches are aberrations.
Whereas looking at any reasonable information suggests that even if Pagan’s year last year was a career year, he’s still likely to end up with a close approximation to his career numbers, which are much better than what he’s doing now.
Maybe Alderson should sign someone to a major league contract that plays CF and has good numbers against lefties, like maybe a Scott Hairston..
TRS86
4/18/2011-11:43am at 11:43 am (UTC -4)
“Why are you arguing with Wanny, who is MUCH more intelligent, knowledgeable, and sensible than you?”
Agree or disagree with Ceetar, Wanny or Kingman, can we agree not to insult each other? I am sure Ceetar is a very intelligent person, I know him to be knowledgeable on some subjects and is as sensible as any Met fan is. Considering the likely path of the season I think we are setting a dangerous trend to insult those who offer a differing opinion.
Thank you,
have a nice day.
kingman 26
4/18/2011-11:00am at 11:00 am (UTC -4)
“When a player with Pagan’s numbers, Frenchy’s numbers, Pujols numbers, or Valdez’s numbers, gets off to a hot/cold/tepid start, in what amounts to an extremely limited sample size, it means next to nothing.”
Read Wanny’s comment—-OF COURSE Pujols’ start is less relevant than Pagan’s, as Pujols has been one of the all-time great offensive players for a decade, while Pagan has ONE year as a starter under his belt, and in that ONE YEAR, he tailed off dramatically in the last two months of the year.
So, for baseball fans with perspective, knowledge, and sense, Pagan’s start is MUCH more concerning than that of Pujols (or Francoeur, who, while mediocre to be sure, also has been a full-time starter for many years.)
kistics
4/18/2011-10:41am at 10:41 am (UTC -4)
I wonder how long they will experiment with Emaus.
His defense is okay. But his offense needs to pick up soon. I think he really knows his strike zone, but he just can’t get good wood on the balls. Is he a complete bust? Or does he just need some time to adjust?
wannybackstra
4/18/2011-10:50am at 10:50 am (UTC -4)
His defense is okay? Maybe against little league hitters.
kistics
4/18/2011-11:51am at 11:51 am (UTC -4)
I didn’t watch him making the error in that Rockies game, but every other play he has made was okay so far. I’m not saying he’s the next Alomar, but it’s acceptable.
TRS86
4/18/2011-11:56am at 11:56 am (UTC -4)
I think both Emaus and Murphy are able to make the routine play. I have not seen enough out of Emaus to say he’s significantly better than Murphy. I would assume that Terry and Sandy are trying as much as possible to give him every chance to prove himself before offering him back. It could also be where they are monitoring the Jays roster to see if they would indeed take him back.
njstuckintx
4/18/2011-12:00pm at 12:00 pm (UTC -4)
I thought Emaus was supposed to have a bat. That’s what annoys me about him. At least Murphy’s hitting.
TRS86
4/18/2011-12:31pm at 12:31 pm (UTC -4)
I think that it’s too early to tell. I also believe that what most scouts saw was plate discipline over bat. Perhaps now would be a good time to go to a platoon.
kistics
4/18/2011-12:35pm at 12:35 pm (UTC -4)
To me, it is already a platoon. TC just hasn’t made it official.
kingman 26
4/18/2011-12:43pm at 12:43 pm (UTC -4)
He had a bat in the minors.
He’s Chris Carter 2.0.
njstuckintx
4/18/2011-12:44pm at 12:44 pm (UTC -4)
Emaus’ lack of a cool nickname is certainly hindering him.
TRS86
4/18/2011-12:44pm at 12:44 pm (UTC -4)
Can’t give him that label yet but could be.
kingman 26
4/18/2011-12:56pm at 12:56 pm (UTC -4)
Sure I can!
I just did!
Must improve the offense—Wright is again pressing, as he, Ike, and Reyes are the only ones contributing, along with a tad from Thole and Beltran.
Cannot continue to have 2B AND CF (yes, I know how great Pagan is; it is just a shame his stats don’t reflect it) be black holes for much longer.
TRS86
4/18/2011-1:03pm at 1:03 pm (UTC -4)
Not really going to be baited into a back and forth on Pagan. Time will tell.
kingman 26
4/18/2011-1:05pm at 1:05 pm (UTC -4)
Yes, time will tell.
Actually it did before the season.
TRS86
4/18/2011-1:06pm at 1:06 pm (UTC -4)
Kingman why are you so insistent on…
Wait, you almost got me. Never-mind.
kingman 26
4/18/2011-1:12pm at 1:12 pm (UTC -4)
LOL!
I take insistence lessons from YOU!!
TRS86
4/18/2011-1:14pm at 1:14 pm (UTC -4)
Hopefully then we can teach each other about restraint.
kingman 26
4/18/2011-1:25pm at 1:25 pm (UTC -4)
That could actually be a good thing.
I like learning new things….
kistics
4/18/2011-12:47pm at 12:47 pm (UTC -4)
If he’s Chris Carter 2.0, I would want the Mets to drop him now and promote Turner..
TRS86
4/18/2011-12:48pm at 12:48 pm (UTC -4)
If he’s Chris Carter 2.0 then Turner is Chris Carter 1.3.
kistics
4/18/2011-12:55pm at 12:55 pm (UTC -4)
I’m confused on your math….
wannybackstra
4/18/2011-12:59pm at 12:59 pm (UTC -4)
Defensively I think Emaus turns the DP pretty well. But his hands are stone and he has as much range as Mo Vaughn could be expected.
I haven’t really seen enough of Murphy yet but we know his hands are generally pretty good from his time at 1B.
TRS86
4/18/2011-1:02pm at 1:02 pm (UTC -4)
From what I have seen of Murphy, he has decent range at 2B and is aggressive. Honestly, I have not seen him make the turn for a DP yet.
Ceetar
4/18/2011-1:55pm at 1:55 pm (UTC -4)
I only saw him do it once, and it looked smooth and easy. good feed from Reyes.
I’m not sure he’s had any other chances? I know Emaus has muffed a couple of them.
kistics
4/18/2011-12:36pm at 12:36 pm (UTC -4)
Was anyone surprised that Beltran played yesterday? I almost wished he hadn’t.. but then without him the Mets probably lost.
TRS86
4/18/2011-12:37pm at 12:37 pm (UTC -4)
Why would you wish he had not played?
kistics
4/18/2011-12:44pm at 12:44 pm (UTC -4)
to save his knee. did he not play in game #2 on Sat? I’m confused now…
TRS86
4/18/2011-12:45pm at 12:45 pm (UTC -4)
Did not play in game one I think.
He gets to save his knee today right?
kistics
4/18/2011-12:48pm at 12:48 pm (UTC -4)
ok… for some reason, I thought he played both games on Saturday..
TRS86
4/18/2011-12:51pm at 12:51 pm (UTC -4)
You are right. I was thinking of Rockies series. I guess they played him in both games Saturday because of the off day today.
kistics
4/18/2011-12:54pm at 12:54 pm (UTC -4)
So he played 3 games in 2 days.. that’s why I was surprised to see him in the line up yesterday…
kistics
4/18/2011-12:53pm at 12:53 pm (UTC -4)
We can argue all we want about Pagan, but at this point, he is the only option at CF. So like it or not, we’re stuck with him. Unless you bring Pridie or Kirk up
TRS86
4/18/2011-1:05pm at 1:05 pm (UTC -4)
True, and he does contribute defensively. Hopefully that .173 BABIP means something.
kingman 26
4/18/2011-1:13pm at 1:13 pm (UTC -4)
It sure does; it shows how little that stat means sometimes.
He sure is not lining out every at bat—hitting pop-ups and weak grounders.
TRS86
4/18/2011-1:19pm at 1:19 pm (UTC -4)
You are right his LD% is slightly down. His FB% and IFFB% are also slightly up. His walk percentage is up and his K percentage is down so you would not think it’s because he is not seeing the ball well. The BABIP is what sticks out the most compared to his career norms.
2007: .307
2008: .333
2009: .349
2010: .331
2011: .173
TRS86
4/18/2011-1:26pm at 1:26 pm (UTC -4)
What’s also interesting is that his BABIP stayed decent to high even last year during his slump.
August: .289
September .303
That .173 sticks out everywhere.
kistics
4/18/2011-2:05pm at 2:05 pm (UTC -4)
He’s got you hooked hasn’t he?
TRS86
4/18/2011-2:18pm at 2:18 pm (UTC -4)
No, it’s just really strange. Don’t know what to think. I am not going to get into some silly debate saying that Pagan will continue to hit .172. My questions are more about why is there such a decline in BABIP when other numbers do not really dictate that change.
kingman 26
4/18/2011-2:23pm at 2:23 pm (UTC -4)
TRS—I really think that–while sure, he’s not going to hit under .200–that pitchers never really worked on figuring him out until the latter part of last year, as he never played full time and showed much until last spring and summer.
Same as an NBA guy who might be great as a second teamer, but when they start, they are not the same. Eric Williams who played with the Nets was a classic–a great bench player, but when he started he could not compete with the first teamers.
TRS86
4/18/2011-2:30pm at 2:30 pm (UTC -4)
Kingman, while I admit that is possible, I just don’t think it’s likely that a career .330 BABIP guy in the majors and minors suddenly got “figured” out to that degree. That still does not answer why even last year during his slump (or time that he was figured out) he still had a .300ish BABIP. As I said earlier, time will tell. You could be right and could be able to gloat from now till the end of time.
njstuckintx
4/18/2011-1:07pm at 1:07 pm (UTC -4)
Pretty much, unless you want to trade for Blastings Thrillage. I hear he’s available…
kistics
4/18/2011-1:14pm at 1:14 pm (UTC -4)
how do you trade for a FA?
njstuckintx
4/18/2011-1:19pm at 1:19 pm (UTC -4)
he accepted a minor league assignment i believe.
kistics
4/18/2011-2:04pm at 2:04 pm (UTC -4)
oh… sorry i’m an idiot
saltygary
4/18/2011-2:02pm at 2:02 pm (UTC -4)
With Boston’s win today the Mets officially have the worst record in baseball! WOOT!
njstuckintx
4/18/2011-2:04pm at 2:04 pm (UTC -4)
We’re number 1! We’re number 1!
kistics
4/18/2011-2:07pm at 2:07 pm (UTC -4)
We’re going to have to get swept by the Astros this week to take the sole possession of the #1 spot.
njstuckintx
4/18/2011-2:15pm at 2:15 pm (UTC -4)
If that happens, I’ll cry. Houston is such a collection of crap, if the Mets can’t beat them, at least we’ll know we have to look forward to a high draft position.
Mr North Jersey
4/18/2011-2:35pm at 2:35 pm (UTC -4)
Kingy I finished a graphic for your week in review posts i been working on. I hope you don’t mind and i replaced the feature image with it. Here is the url for you to see what the graphic looks like.
http://realdirtymets.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/RDM-Weekinreview-Feat_Image.png
I don’t know how attached you are to the graphic you been using so if you prefer to continue using the one you currently have I can always go back in and re add it as the feature image.
kingman 26
4/18/2011-3:19pm at 3:19 pm (UTC -4)
OUTSTANDING! YES please feel free to replace this in the larger size up above here, and I will save it and always use it.
That’s GREAT!
I only used what I have because I don’t have your skills with graphics, and I found the above on the internet in a few seconds and used it.
I really appreciate this, as I plan to do this piece every week.
Thanks again Mr N–really appreciate it.
TRS86
4/18/2011-2:37pm at 2:37 pm (UTC -4)
Fitting comments from Berg pertaining to today’s discussion.
“I appeal to evidence more than appearances on this site because I am not a scout; my eyes are not trained to assess baseball players or teams, and even if they were I’m not certain I’d believe them. Most players look crappy when they’re playing crappily. Most players look awesome when they’re playing awesomely. We need lots of data to clearly distinguish the truly awesome from the downright crappy.”
Ceetar
4/18/2011-2:49pm at 2:49 pm (UTC -4)
yeah, good post by Berg today.