Lets just hope that he comes back healthy !
Among the troubling news of Jenrry Mejia possibly needing surgery for a torn MCL, coupled with the fact that the Mets barely avoided being swept by the Philadelphia Phillies, there was a small – yet tantalizing tidbit that should give us Mets fans a little bit of hope in what could possibly be another lost season in Flushing.
Yesterday it was reported that our currently rehabbing ace, Johan Santana has been long tossing a baseball on flat ground from 150 feet. This is perceived as great news because it has been considered the last hurdle before Johan will be allowed to start throwing off a mound. It also will either once again restore confidence in the Mets medical and rehabilitation staff – who was rightfully maligned after the injury plagued seasons that were ’09 and ’10.
But the question remains that if Johan – sans any setbacks with his surgically repaired shoulder- will he be back right after the All Star Break, and if he is will he be anywhere close the the Ace that we obtained during the ’07 offseason ?
I think even if Johan comes back at less than 100 percent, he will still be better than two thirds of Major League pitchers. He has proven that he is a warrior when he is on the mound, and I do feel that he – like Pedro Martinez ( after arm surgery)before him, can become a pitcher that relies on guts, as well as his guile in order to get the opposing batters to make outs.
Will his fastball ever return to it’s past high 90 M.P.H glory ? The jury is still out on that , and we may not even see a truly effective Johan until ’2012. But hey at this point us Mets fans need something to hang our orange and blue baseball caps on.
And with that said… HERE COMES THE INFAMY !!!!
Mets alumni celebrating a birthday today includes:
Original Mets pitching coach ( and baseball legend), Red Ruffing would have been 111 today (1904).
Original Mets back up catcher from ’62-’65 Chris Cannizzaro (1938)
Spot starter/middle reliever from the ’69 team, Jack DiLauro is 68 (1943)
Sadly on this date in 2004, Mets Coach from the ’93 team- Darrell Johnson passed away.
The New York Mets purchased utility infielder, Mike Phillips from the San Francisco Giants on May 3, 1975.
Mo Vaughn thinks he will have the entire World’s Fare Market all to himself for tonight’s game !!!
212 comments
darknova306
5/3/2011-7:23am at 7:23 am (UTC -4)
If he does manage to come back this season, I don’t expect a lot out of him. He’ll be getting back in pitching shape, stretching his arm out, getting the feel for his command again, etc…. just like a very extended spring training. If he is going to get back to being a good pitcher, it likely won’t be until next season.
That said, I don’t expect him to ever be a true ace again, though it’ll be easy to be an ‘ace’ of the sad staff we have now. I think the real test for him will be to see how his velocity fares. He needs a decent differential between the fastball and changeup. Time will tell, but as with everything else Mets related, I’m mostly pessimistic.
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-7:56am at 7:56 am (UTC -4)
I’m with you on this. If he comes back at all this year, I expect that to be a plus – more or less a test of the arm, stamina and more importantly to put Johan’s mind at ease somewhat as to what to expect next year.
Johan should get every benefit of the doubt coming back. This is a guy who had some type of surgery at the end of every season since being here and worked his butt off to be ready by spring. Heck, he even pitched with a torn miniscus second half of ’08 (I think it was ’08) and no one knew it.
Not much anyone can do about it anyway, other than wait and see. But dang, I was looking forward to the crafty veteran that is Johan heading up that rotation next year, with Mejia anchoring the back end and hopefully moving up. We all know now that wasn’t meant to be.
Ceetar
5/3/2011-8:56am at 8:56 am (UTC -4)
Just don’t rush him like they’ve done in the past with other players. Let him get the extended spring and AAA work in. No one really knows how his shoulder will hold up, and while people bitch and moan about Prior and Wang, I haven’t seen anyone tracking Johan’s progress to where those guys were at this point.
He’s still got a LONG way to go and factoring him into any plan would be sloppy. You might have enough to go on to make an educated decision around the trading deadline about the need to get another pitcher, or fill a different hold.
I believe in Johan and believe he can be effective. My ‘goal’ would be 5 starts at the end of the year and be in “mid-season form” for the playoffs.
kingman 26
5/3/2011-9:08am at 9:08 am (UTC -4)
Yes, if he is able to throw any good pitches over 88 mph, hopefully they will be able to move his insane contract to a playoff team for a couple of prospects.
njstuckintx
5/3/2011-9:13am at 9:13 am (UTC -4)
I’m not ready to jump ship with Johan yet. Plus his value is going to be way low coming off the injury.
kingman 26
5/3/2011-9:19am at 9:19 am (UTC -4)
Precisely. 23 million for a former ace on a barren team?
With Mejia now joining Havens and FMart as a member of the Mets’ perpetually injured Junior Core?
And folks talking about bringing up Nick Evans as some sort of improvement?
This team is SOOOO far from competing.
I agree Johan can still be a winner, but we need about a dozen really good prospects.
Hopefully the draft, Johan, Beltran, and maybe KRod can provide them in the next 6 months.
TRS86
5/3/2011-9:27am at 9:27 am (UTC -4)
Not hoping for 12 really good prospects. No one has that, not even the Royals who are stacked/stocked. My hope is that we at least bring in a couple of no doubters. While I disagree that we are years away, I do think that guys like Johan and Bay have to be peddled off as not bad guys but not fits for the current team.
To your point on Evans, when you are talking about player #25 almost every team is replacing crap with crap. You are just hoping that piece of crap is a little less offensive than the other.
kingman 26
5/3/2011-9:30am at 9:30 am (UTC -4)
“You are just hoping that piece of crap is a little less offensive than the other.”
LOL!
Yeah, cannot argue. And Evans, like Murph, does seem to be a hard worker, a guy who hustles, and who will play and play hard anywhere. It is just his talent that may be an issue.
As for Bay, he has now driven in a run in ONE of the ten games he has played. Since the DBacks left town, he has 5 singles and 2 BB in 27 PA.
You and I are more tradeable than he is.
stickguy
5/3/2011-9:32am at 9:32 am (UTC -4)
I am on record in the off season saying that I would trade Bay for anything, just to get rid of him. That still stands!
should have moved him when he was hitting .360!
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-9:53am at 9:53 am (UTC -4)
I was right behind Stick in saying during the off season Bay’s contract would the the #1 contract I’d like to see them try and move along.
njstuckintx
5/3/2011-9:31am at 9:31 am (UTC -4)
I actually hope if they are going into the total rebuilding mode, they consider trading Young & Capuano as well. & to me, rebuilding isn’t stripping the cupboard bare and starting with all 23 yr olds. If you strip out most of the older parts, with a few key vets remaining (AKA Wright, Reyes, even Bay), I think that would be sufficient.
I’d like to see them re-sign Reyes, and look to move Krod, Beltran, Capuano, possibly Pelf. Even Pagan if the price was right, but I’m hesitant on him as there no one to play CF, and pagan’s D is solid. If Santana could be moved and get back a decent haul and they aren’t paying half the salary, then I’d certainly consider it. Honestly, I’d listen to just about anyone, if the deal was sweet enough. But as close to untouchable as they can come would be Wright, Ike and Niese.
stickguy
5/3/2011-9:36am at 9:36 am (UTC -4)
You seem to have read my mind. I agree 110% (hey, everything is bigger in Texas!).
pagan I would move. Still say he is a 4th OF on a good team, and is not likely to be here next year at his salary.
Pelf I am still unsure about. I think the good pitcher is in there, and would rather try a new PC first before giving up on him. But I am flexible on this.
I also think Sandy (unlike Omar) will be brutally honest about their chances mid season, and will look to unload every old guy/expiring contract he can to bring some talent back. Though I would not mind seeing Young (if he keeps this up) getting an extension. Hey, someone has to pitch next season.
darknova306
5/3/2011-9:15am at 9:15 am (UTC -4)
Agreed. Besides, by the time the Mets are contenders again, Johan will be in the “completely not worth the money” years of the back end of his contract. Might as well get whatever we can for him as soon as possible.
TRS86
5/3/2011-9:19am at 9:19 am (UTC -4)
PLAYOFFS? PLAYOFFS? WE CAN’T WIN A GAME!
Sorry but I had to go there.
kingman 26
5/3/2011-9:21am at 9:21 am (UTC -4)
“What’s that? Ah — Playoffs? Don’t talk about — playoffs? You kidding me? Playoffs? I just hope we can win a game! Another game.”
One of the all-time great rants.
He had another one where he said people in the stands were “vomiting” watching the team; I think he even laughed at this, it was so damn funny.
Ceetar
5/3/2011-9:46am at 9:46 am (UTC -4)
we’ve won 7 of the last 10 and won our last game.
sorry, i had to go there.
TRS86
5/3/2011-9:50am at 9:50 am (UTC -4)
CEETAR…. we are 12-16 6.5 games out already and have not won a series vs a quality team yet. WE ARE NOT GOING TO COMPETE THIS YEAR. Quicker we accept that the quicker we can fix the problem.
kingman 26
5/3/2011-10:02am at 10:02 am (UTC -4)
We are 2-8 against the Phils and DBacks.
But clearly we underperformed in those 8 games!
A hit here and there, and hey, we’re 8-2.
Ceetar
5/3/2011-10:05am at 10:05 am (UTC -4)
Sorry, that’s not how baseball works.
kingman 26
5/3/2011-10:08am at 10:08 am (UTC -4)
LOL!!!!
Maybe not to YOU.
We’re in last place by 2 games, are 2-8 against 1st place teams, and the Phils have great pitching, the Marlins are clearly on the rise again loaded with young talent, and we are clearly not as good as the Braves.
Sorry, that IS how baseball works.
In the real world.
Ceetar
5/3/2011-10:09am at 10:09 am (UTC -4)
yeah, Like I’d believe a thing you write about baseball.
kingman 26
5/3/2011-10:11am at 10:11 am (UTC -4)
Of course you don’t—you are a kid in fantasy land.
kingman 26
5/3/2011-10:12am at 10:12 am (UTC -4)
But seriously, with our roster, we should be able to beat out at least three of the teams in our division for that playoff spot.
njstuckintx
5/3/2011-10:13am at 10:13 am (UTC -4)
Children…
(picture Mrs. Huxtable staring you guys down, tapping her foot)
TRS86
5/3/2011-10:42am at 10:42 am (UTC -4)
Clearly that is how baseball works. Even the Redsox had to realize this and rebuild with youth back in the Nomar days. As did the Phillies when they moved on from Thome, Burrell, Rowand, and Abreu.
kingman 26
5/3/2011-10:48am at 10:48 am (UTC -4)
OF COURSE it is how baseball works.
But no, we will beat out the Phils and Marlins with their “twinkles of potential.”
This is ridiculous. Every time it happens it is ridiculous.
Ceetar
5/3/2011-10:07am at 10:07 am (UTC -4)
“quality team” is such a horrible term anyway. Bad teams can play well, and get beaten still. Good teams can be playing badly..
Anyway, we beat the Diamondbacks, swept them, and the Phillies couldn’t beat them. We beat the Marlins, who are fighting for the division lead at the moment.
kingman 26
5/3/2011-10:10am at 10:10 am (UTC -4)
“Bad teams can play well, and get beaten still. Good teams can be playing badly.”
Not over the course of 162 games.
Never. Ever.
We barely beat the Marlins 2 of 3 the first 3 days of the season.
They are 17-7 since. We are 10-15.
We’ll see how we do against them next time.
Ceetar
5/3/2011-10:13am at 10:13 am (UTC -4)
We’ll probably sweep them next time.
It’s amusing how you believe every little twinkle of potential in the Marlins and the Phillies but make excuses for every success the Mets have.
kingman 26
5/3/2011-10:18am at 10:18 am (UTC -4)
“every little twinkle of potential”–yes, the Phils’ rotation and the Marlins’ reloaded roster of young talent that is actually PERFORMING is a “little twinkle.”
Ceetar, you win.
Arguing with you is so ridiculous I cannot believe I have done it even once.
Ceetar
5/3/2011-10:29am at 10:29 am (UTC -4)
Of course I win. You’re not playing with a full deck.
But yes, I’m sure Polanco will continue hitting .400 all season and even better with runners in scoring position. Utley will magically heal fully and play 100 games at MVP-level rates.
kingman 26
5/3/2011-10:42am at 10:42 am (UTC -4)
You win because you are in fantasy land, and I am in reality.
You certainly NEVER win on the merit of your joke arguments.
TRS86
5/3/2011-10:54am at 10:54 am (UTC -4)
Perhaps you may not reason with Kingman, he is volatile at times I admit. But if someone who I hope you consider rational, level headed and even an optimist believes this year it’s more important to think about the future.
Is it impossible that the Mets will go 79-55 from here on out to claim a playoff spot. Of course Johan COULD come back throwing 99 mph and dominate going 10-2. The point is should we make moves expecting that to happen or make moves based on the likelihood that it will not. Hopefully Sandy is smart enough to see the big picture.
Ceetar
5/3/2011-11:06am at 11:06 am (UTC -4)
There are plenty of decisions that can be made this year that benefit this year that don’t hurt next year. There are a lot more unknowns for dealing with what’s going on for next year.
Plus it’s early May. A lot more will be known in July when it’s actually realistic to make trades.
The Mets projected 60million in losses. if they were to ‘give up’ now and start trading pieces looking towards the future, that would creep up to 70 and 80 million. or more. It would lower the operating budget for next year, bring in less advertising money, and less guarenteed ticket sales.
No team, not the Pirates even, should be giving up in early May. Nowhere did I suggest they should suddenly swing a trade for Felix Hernandez and double his contract, but there is no reason to give up on this year or not make moves that benefit the team.
TRS86
5/3/2011-11:59am at 11:59 am (UTC -4)
Nor should you go around saying the Mets should plan Johan’s recovery around making the playoffs.
kingman 26
5/3/2011-10:01am at 10:01 am (UTC -4)
Ceetar, what I think will be great about that first playoff game that Johan starts is when the really pretty orange and blue unicorns fly above the playing field, right at the very moment Angel Pagan receives his Hall of Fame plaque.
That’s going to be great!
njstuckintx
5/3/2011-9:10am at 9:10 am (UTC -4)
What’s the point of rushing back? Especially if this team continues to flounder. I can not see the point in rushing back to be a part of this mess. Take your time, Johan. Get back to 100%. Maybe we see him back for September. Even late August. But it would be just the Mets luck to have him rush back to stick his proverbial finger in the dyke (please keep your minds clean, people! jeez…) only to find out that the hole is the size of Rhode Island. There isn’t going to be any stopping the leaks and rushing back to reinjure himself, or injure another part of his body as he’s overcompensating for the shoulder… You all get my point, I hope.
PS, Hey Wanny, did you ever decide to not protect Eithier in your keeper league?
stickguy
5/3/2011-9:30am at 9:30 am (UTC -4)
It is nice that so far, his progress has been on schedule and he feels good. But I still stand by my original thought, that I don’t expect to see him back this year, and if he ever comes back as an effective pitcher, it will be close to a miracle.
a few starts in September just to show he can do it would be a huge bonus, but no way you can even hope for any real outings from him until 2012.
oh, and no matter what happens this season, I still say you handle the off season as if he does not exist.
TRS86
5/3/2011-9:39am at 9:39 am (UTC -4)
OK. Time to start it up again.
I really like the idea, IF IF IF IF we are trading Reyes to try and work out something early with the Giants. Try and get Bumgarner before his value gets to high again. I now concede that the perfect win now move for the Giants, as they are not playing too well right now and need offense, would be for the Mets to send Reyes AND Pelfrey to the Giants for Bumgarner, blocked closer 28 year old Sergio Romo (guy is nasty) and a low level pitching prospect.
This gets us an immediate replacement for Pelfrey who could be the future ace, a cheap closer to replace Krod next year and depth for the system. I know Reyes is Reyes but I will be honest with you I would like our chances to be competitive next year and more so after that with Bumgarner, Romo, and 15M to spend than Reyes, a hole in the rotation and a hole at closer.
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-9:56am at 9:56 am (UTC -4)
Ugh…
Can’t we find someway to get something like this done AND resign Reyes?
njstuckintx
5/3/2011-10:14am at 10:14 am (UTC -4)
And yeah, I feel the same way. It’d be like when they didn’t make the effort to re-sign straw. That was a kick to crotch for me.
TRS86
5/3/2011-10:36am at 10:36 am (UTC -4)
Nope. I wish we could but how?
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-10:40am at 10:40 am (UTC -4)
I have no idea. Then again, I’m not the GM. Here’s hoping Sandy & Co. are looking at and exploring every single available option out there.
Not sure if you all agree but so far Chris Young looks like one of the better signings Sandy made over the winter. If his health holds up, he looks solid. Did any of us even have Young on our radar before those rumors started surfacing?
TRS86
5/3/2011-11:58am at 11:58 am (UTC -4)
Nope and unfortunately you gotta hope that if he holds out until the deadline he is too traded for a decent prospect.
njstuckintx
5/3/2011-9:59am at 9:59 am (UTC -4)
I think the Mets could get a little bigger return than that. Then again, I know nothing and am a meat popsicle. IF IF IF he is to be traded, I would want a young pitcher for sure. If that Romo guy is as good as you say and could take over the closer roll eventually, that wouldn’t be a bad haul.
Let’s start the Krod to the White Sox rumors!
And I would have said Reyes to Boston as well, but Lowrie is playing like a man possessed. Still could work if they ship 2 prospects and Scutaro, just so we don’t have to roll with Tejada at SS, unless you want to see Turner there… Pardon me, I just threw up a little in my mouth.
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-10:15am at 10:15 am (UTC -4)
Tejada or Turner at SS would be waving the white flag next year for sure.
IF they are not going to resign Reyes they absolutely have to come up with someone better than either of these 2 to play SS. Neither one have a plus bat nor plus defense.
TRS86
5/3/2011-10:39am at 10:39 am (UTC -4)
I very much think you can compete next year with Bumgarner, Romo, a league average SS and that 15-20 million from Reyes reinvested in the right spots.
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-10:42am at 10:42 am (UTC -4)
Eh, define ‘league average’ though.
Tejada is quickly racking up the errors down there and his bat has leveled off to what he projects to hit around, which is .250.
Turner I’m a little less sure about but so far what I see does not translate to an everyday SS on a ML team.
TRS86
5/3/2011-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
You can find league average for cheap on the FA market.
TRS86
5/3/2011-10:15am at 10:15 am (UTC -4)
NJ I think you are way overvaluing a Reyes rental, yeah he could come with an extension but if you were able to net Bumgarner it might be the steal of the franchise. Again, that’s assuming you are going to lose Reyes which at this point is still an assumption.
Bumgarner is 21 years old and has a 3.27 ERA in 27 games at the MLB level. At the minor league level in 3 short season he had over a 4/1 K to BB ratio and an ERA of 2.00 in 63 games.
njstuckintx
5/3/2011-10:22am at 10:22 am (UTC -4)
It was more based on the Pelf and Reyes for Bumgarden and Romo. Meaning, a SP and a BP guy for Reyes and Pelf. If Romo is as good as you say he is and could be the closer of the future, then I can be OK with that haul.
And to me, I’d try for, but eventually take Bumgarden straight up for Reyes.
With SF built to win now, I think they’ll overvalue Reyes. Then again, they may realize they can’t sign him long term. They have both Sanchez and Lincecum coming up with Arb. I can’t remember if they have Rowand coming off the books, so that may help.
TRS86
5/3/2011-10:31am at 10:31 am (UTC -4)
Honestly NJ I might trade Pelfrey for Romo and a low level prospect right now.
Romo has been pretty damn good for 3 years now.
154 games, 2.53 ERA, 168 ERA+ .935 WHIP yeah you read that right, 10.2 SO/9, 4.63 SO/BB.
157 K’s in 139 innings.
Guy’s a stud.
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-10:44am at 10:44 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, but why would would S.F. even do that trade?
njstuckintx
5/3/2011-11:36am at 11:36 am (UTC -4)
Another run at the WS?
TRS86
5/3/2011-11:54am at 11:54 am (UTC -4)
They need offense. Reyes would be a huge help to that.
kingman 26
5/3/2011-10:06am at 10:06 am (UTC -4)
Now this is the kind of thinking that we should hope Alderson is engaged in.
I am SO on the fence about Reyes. One day I think he must be re-signed, then the next day I remember that the Phils, Red Sox, Yanks, and other teams that spend like the Mariners all need long-term shortstop solutions. Then I remember the Crawford/Braun/Werth deals, and think there’s NO way we will be able to sign Jose. But, maybe new ownership comes with big pockets.
Anyway, TRS is on the right track.
TRS86
5/3/2011-10:16am at 10:16 am (UTC -4)
I am torn as well. I think that IF you can get a package like that you have to do it. However, if not then perhaps you are better off investing as much time AND money in getting him re-signed.
kingman 26
5/3/2011-10:21am at 10:21 am (UTC -4)
I almost think Sandy might be waiting to see:
A–Who the new part-owners are and what they will spend
B–If the Mets REALLY are this bad and have no chance to contend
C–If they MIGHT be able to get anything for Bay, KRod, Beltran, etc., and if so, maybe feel that the saved money might be enough to help offset a Reyes deal
tkfj2
5/3/2011-10:30am at 10:30 am (UTC -4)
Here’s the thing with Reyes, he means so much more to this franchise then just your everyday player considering the position we are in.
If you think revenue is awful now, if you think attendance is awful now, if you think the team is awful now, if you think the organization is awful NOW, it will be that much worse if we don’t at least make an effort to retain him.
Ultimately it is up to Reyes to rs-sign here, unless he is traded away (which I hopefully don’t see), but if Sandy and Co. do not make an offer I think a good part of this fan base might revolt. Attendance will drop even further (if that is possible) and we will be in worse shape than we are now.
That is not even discussing baseball, where you can’t replace the production of Reyes, which is fine if we plan on rebuilding. A full rebuild in NY, although possibly a pertinent idea might not be achievable.
TRS86
5/3/2011-10:35am at 10:35 am (UTC -4)
TK you are missing something. Utimately the Mets revenue will only increase IF they win. They have Reyes now, are not winning and have low revenue. NO that is not Reyes’ fault. However, Sandy has to decide the best way to return to competitiveness. Hopefully that is with Reyes. However, that trade package above might be a better way to go long-term. If you re-sign Reyes AND have no money to spend or players to trade, how do you get better than we are right now?
tkfj2
5/3/2011-10:38am at 10:38 am (UTC -4)
I never said sign him, I said make an attempt to sign him. Ultimately Sandy has to do what is right for the organization, but the Wilpons and Omar the Dummy have left him in a difficult spot.
P.S. I think Bay is damaged goods, wtg Omar, the guy has lost all of his power.
TRS86
5/3/2011-10:40am at 10:40 am (UTC -4)
For all we know an attempt has already been made. Either way I am sure a modest package will be offered, if it has not already, before they trade him.
kingman 26
5/3/2011-10:44am at 10:44 am (UTC -4)
In all seriousness, someone like the Phils, Red Sox, Yanks, Mariners, etc, will offer Reyes 7 years and $120 million or more if he finishes the year with the numbers he is currently on pace for.
tkfj2
5/3/2011-10:49am at 10:49 am (UTC -4)
This is most likely true. I guess the only team that would be acceptable as a Mets fan on that list, would be the Mariners.
I’d probably puke if I saw him in those other three uniforms.
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-10:46am at 10:46 am (UTC -4)
Have to agree with TK here.
Yes, winning = higher revenue.
But with Reyes gone, I think that revenue gets worse before it gets better.
TRS86
5/3/2011-10:57am at 10:57 am (UTC -4)
It again depends on who they bring in. Would it hurt revenue for THIS year? Sure. For next year it’s all about the moves made. Myself if they traded for Bumgarner and reinvested their money from Reyes correctly I would be much more entertained than just going with Reyes and trying to patch the rest of the team with scrubs with no real depth in the minors or can’t miss guys.
stickguy
5/3/2011-11:04am at 11:04 am (UTC -4)
I agree with this. And fans always have favorites, but they come and go. Bring in a new guy that does good, they can fall in love. Or they all get hooked on Ike.
Keeping reyes but making every other move super low budget is a concern, since you will just end up with this year again!
so if that is the case, just go for broke and break in prospects. F Mart, Kirk, whoever is the next wave? Get the fans hooked on the next young core!
but, Jose is plenty young enough to be part of the retooling and run to respectability!
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-10:53am at 10:53 am (UTC -4)
Joel Sherman is not one I often read but had to take a look at today’s column linked on another site.
I think I made this same suggestion a couple of weeks back and a few laughed at me:
‘As for Reyes: Why can’t the Mets have their cake and eat it, too? After all, they could trade Reyes in July to bulk up on prospects and if their front office really likes him and if there is money to pay him — two huge ifs — then the Mets could try to re-sign Reyes as a free agent.’
Win/Win !!
(yes, I know it’s wishful thinking)
http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/mets/die_hard_dreamers_may_need_to_face_E2v0ya4HxY7GsQtcbRAJ1N#ixzz1LIjhhcTO
stickguy
5/3/2011-10:56am at 10:56 am (UTC -4)
Oh, I agree with this. And it makes sense (conceptually) if a team offers more value than the picks, and team Reyes says they are 100% not signing an extension.
the danger, of course, is they end up signing one with the new team!
you do of course run into the same PR issues (and frankly, no one at all would believe Sandy if he traded reyes but said they were going to go after him in FA anyway).
TRS86
5/3/2011-11:00am at 11:00 am (UTC -4)
I just don’t see how this works at all. The team we then trade him to would then get our 1st rounder, assuming they don’t change the rules for this off-season which I think is likely the case. So what we would net would be lessened by losing our 1st pick. Also I think that he would cost much more on the open market in November than any extension now.
stickguy
5/3/2011-11:05am at 11:05 am (UTC -4)
2nd round pick (unless you think they are going to win a lot more games!)
and it only makes sense if they totally reject an extension offer (or the talent back is over the top).
stickguy
5/3/2011-10:54am at 10:54 am (UTC -4)
Ah, nothing like some “trade reyes” talk to liven the place up!
well, Bumgarner looks like the real deal, so getting that for Reyes is certainly something you consider.
But they should have plenty of money to resign him if they want to.
so I think before a trade happens (unless a team calls with an offer too good to pass up), they go into serious negotiations about an extension. Somehow get to a bottom line (make their best offer, see if they are in the same neighborhood). if not, and you can get some top talent, do it.
Bumgarner is way better than 2 draft picks next year, that is for sure. I have no idea who this Romo guy is, or what the lower level prospect would be.
But, if they do trade jose, they need to find a real SS someplace, unless it goes into full dump/rebuild mode (which IMO does not need to happen).
darknova306
5/3/2011-10:58am at 10:58 am (UTC -4)
Contrary to some fans’ emotional arguments, baseball teams can win without Jose Reyes. In fact, what team has actually won WITH Reyes? Oh, right. I love Reyes as much as the next Mets fan, but the team isn’t winning, or even playing respectable baseball, so if it takes letting him go in order to have a proper rebuilding process, I’m all for it. Some of us on here have wanted a thorough rebuilding for a few years, and Sandy is just the guy to do that properly. If the team continues to embarrass itself all season, expect some massive and emotionally draining changes to the roster this offseason.
tkfj2
5/3/2011-11:06am at 11:06 am (UTC -4)
I don’t think anyone here would mind a complete rebuild, even I would suck it up.
I just don’t think it is viable in today’s NYC market. Unless, there is some magical rebuild that only takes 2 years.
stickguy
5/3/2011-11:08am at 11:08 am (UTC -4)
2 years is a retool. And the difference between a rebuild and retool is being a big market team (in theory). You can layer in prospects/young guys, but still keep your young core (Wright, reyes) even when they are more pricey.
TRS86
5/3/2011-11:04am at 11:04 am (UTC -4)
Here’s the ultimate question and what I think Dark is alluding to.
IF they Mets re-sign Reyes, how do they get better. They would have no more cash to invest. The 2011 off-season has a terrible FA market. They would still have the same prospects in the minors other than what little they get for a Beltran trade. So basically we would be stuck in the same spot we are in now. I thought, looking at the budget, they could afford some help even after re-signing Reyes (some of that depends on Krod). However, the problem is that help is just not on the market and as you know FA are often old and past their prime. I think I am beginning to come to the conclusion that the only way out of this may indeed be by trading Reyes.
stickguy
5/3/2011-11:07am at 11:07 am (UTC -4)
I said before, and still think, that unlike last off season the FO will be very active trading this year. Something has to give with the prospects at some point.
TRS86
5/3/2011-11:17am at 11:17 am (UTC -4)
But again, the only players of true value on the MLB team are
Reyes, Wright, Ike, and Niese. You are not trading those last 3 I am willing to bet my fan-hood on that.
stickguy
5/3/2011-11:23am at 11:23 am (UTC -4)
purely from a ROI standpoint, and potential replacebility (especially from the system), the smarter idea is to trade Wright and extend Reyes.
of course this is from a baseball perspective only, ignoring the “appease the fans” aspect.
TRS86
5/3/2011-11:47am at 11:47 am (UTC -4)
I disagree with that idea completely. You still have 2 more years of Wright guaranteed and unlike Reyes, Wright is the face of the franchise. You don’t need to go down to a 48M payroll to rebuild. You just need to make some tough decisions. Trading Wright can not and will not be one of them. Just would never happen. .
stickguy
5/3/2011-11:50am at 11:50 am (UTC -4)
but they aren’t winning anyway in his last 2 years. And he will return way more talent than Reyes would in a trade.
TRS86
5/3/2011-11:53am at 11:53 am (UTC -4)
Offer him the extension then. If you are rebuilding then you need a spokesperson who can handle the press, handle NY and represent the franchise. That is Wright. Besides, you can compete even next year without Reyes if you make the right moves. Surely by 2013. You are a better team next year with Bumgarner, Romo, and 15-20M reinvested than you are with Reyes and what you got now.
stickguy
5/3/2011-12:01pm at 12:01 pm (UTC -4)
Oh, the debate about extending Wright past 2013 (he is under contract through then, right?) is a whole nother issue!
and honestly, I am not sure if you want Reyes from 28-33 at a lot of money, or wright from 31-37 at a lot more. Me, I take reyes!
as to your other point, I still say wright is the one that brings back real talent (like Bumgarner). Reyes won’t.
so the question is, can they win more next year with Reyes + Bumgarner + someone else playing 3B, or with Wright + Gee + someone else playing SS.
and my guess, you can find a better stop gap 3B (hell, even Murphy!) than a stop gap SS. Plus they even have a few possibly legit 3B prospects in the system.
TRS86
5/3/2011-12:06pm at 12:06 pm (UTC -4)
Just completely disagree. You can’t replace all of what Wright does on and off the field. He will not be traded.
stickguy
5/3/2011-11:24am at 11:24 am (UTC -4)
oh, if they are ditching Reyes, might as well go ahead and move Wright also, since it will be a few years before they approach respectability again, and by then Wright will be in his 30′s, and at the end of his contract.
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-11:34am at 11:34 am (UTC -4)
IMO, if this team moves towards rebuilding, Wright won’t be here after his contract ends. There have been a few comments made in the ‘Wright’ camp mid to end of 2010 that indicated Wright was getting a bit on the disillusioned side with this franchise as a whole.
If you were headed towards your prime years and had a choice, would the recent past and current business model of the NY Mets be high on your list of preferable teams? I have a feeling right now that answer would be ‘no’.
njstuckintx
5/3/2011-11:35am at 11:35 am (UTC -4)
Why? i don’t see why trading Reyes should constitute stripping the whole team down to a couple of 23 yr olds. That is not rebuilding, that is demolition.
njstuckintx
5/3/2011-11:31am at 11:31 am (UTC -4)
You have a fan-hood?
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-11:18am at 11:18 am (UTC -4)
And this is the number one area where Omar failed. We should have had way more pieces in the minors than we do. He gave up too many picks for very little rewards – i.e. Wagner and resigning Alou come to mind.
Plus he wasn’t as active in the International market as we all thought he would be.
All those pieces add up.
And for the record, I still don’t think we are in the ‘we have no choice but to let Reyes go’ situation yet. But odds are that’s probably what the mindset was all along. Hence the subtle and not so subtle comments from the FO that’s pointing down that road.
Sigh….
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-11:25am at 11:25 am (UTC -4)
Heck, we got Ike as a result of Glavine signing with the Braves.
Just wasn’t enough of this type of thing over the past several years.
That and the not going over slot mindset when drafting, which may or may not have been all Omar.
TRS86
5/3/2011-11:49am at 11:49 am (UTC -4)
Again, those two don’t bother me. Wagner was a dangerous risk. What if we kept him and he got injured? We get nothing. Alou would not have netted us a pick, in fact he could have cost us even more. Why wouldn’t he have accepted arbitration?
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
No way of knowing with Wagner, that is true.
But Alou? That was a dumb, dumb, dumb signing. Counting on a 40? 41? year old to be your starting LF?
TRS86
5/3/2011-12:05pm at 12:05 pm (UTC -4)
I think that is why we got him for the price we did. They could have chosen not to pick up the option but then I think there was a 3M buyout. The counting on it was the issue. They should have brought in a competent LF to pair with him.
njstuckintx
5/3/2011-11:29am at 11:29 am (UTC -4)
Had Mejia not blown out an MCL, nor the wheels continually falling off the Fmart-cart…They could have been OK. Now… It’s the pitching that worries me.
If they re-sign Reyes, the only other holes they have would be RF (ideally an inhouse find with Fmart/Duda/Etc), BP, which BP arms are found all over the place, and the SP. Going with Santana, Niese, Pelf, Dickey, Gee again is not wonderful at all. So there is where you want to upgrade. And the FA market blows. So, you either down grade at SS and hopefully upgrade in the rotation, or you stay at SS, and hope to sign someone to help with the SP. Re-sign Young as well? Hope Harvey is up by June next year? Flip Krod for something serviceable (off the whitesox???). It’s a whole lotta crap shooting in fixing that rotation.
Moving Reyes & Pelf for Bumgarden & Romo, as TRS thru out there, would strengthen both the rotation and BP, but when we look at most likely downgrading at RF and SS as well, that pitching staff better be very good to handle the loss in production, which isn’t all that good at the moment either.
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-11:41am at 11:41 am (UTC -4)
Well, we all know pitching, pitching, pitching gets it done.
It’s what tipped the scales last year with the Giants. It’s what currently has the Phillies sitting at the top of the NL east, as bad as their offense has been lately.
Every once in a while you get a team that has strong pitching, dominant offense, speed and good defense – as in the ’86 Mets. That’s why that team could carry someone like Rafe at SS even though his bat was non existent. Even then, they came close to going home in the NLCS and close to losing the WS.
Supposedly, pitching is what tips the scales in the short post season series.
Although if that were always true, the 90s Braves would have way more than one WS trophy in their case.
TRS86
5/3/2011-11:50am at 11:50 am (UTC -4)
You don’t have to down grade offensively just because Reyes leaves. You have Reyes’ 15-20M to spend on offense and BP then where as if you keep Reyes you really have no money to spend on offense or SP.
stickguy
5/3/2011-11:54am at 11:54 am (UTC -4)
if reyes goes, that money is either pocketed or goes to pitching. at best you will get a cabrera type old SS to plug the gap.
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-11:57am at 11:57 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, have to agree with this.
If there not going to spend it on pitching, I just assume they spend it on one of Reyes, rather than a handful of mediocre offense.
TRS86
5/3/2011-12:01pm at 12:01 pm (UTC -4)
Not if you trade Reyes for pitching. Also you don’t have to spend tons of money to get production from SS and RF. I would hope indeed they would not go out and throw good money towards bad players just because they have it.
TRS86
5/3/2011-12:03pm at 12:03 pm (UTC -4)
My point is you backfill with stop gaps with that 18M from Reyes. Wherever the holes might be. There are no real players this off-season to invest a long-term contract in.
Johan, Bumgarner, Niese, Dickey and backfill is a solid rotation if Johan is back. If not then you still have at least a guy who could be an ace in Bumgarner.
If you play it the other way then your pitching staff next year will be the same as this year at best.
njstuckintx
5/3/2011-12:05pm at 12:05 pm (UTC -4)
I’m on board for the Bumgarden express, were that to happen.
stickguy
5/3/2011-12:05pm at 12:05 pm (UTC -4)
except I really doubt you are getting that pitcher, or one that good, for a rental. Maybe, but I don’t see it.
That was my whole point about Wright. he could potentially bring back a SP like that, plus some prospects you need.
TRS86
5/3/2011-12:29pm at 12:29 pm (UTC -4)
Wright nets you more than that. Bumgarner while good and is a high price to pay the one thing the Giants need more than pitching is a guy like Reyes. Tough decision but one I think they could make. Also remember that Reyes could come with an extension.
stickguy
5/3/2011-12:04pm at 12:04 pm (UTC -4)
RF will be an inhouse option. that is almost a guarantee. they aren’t spending “real” money out there.
they need a lot of pitching. Reyes money is not going into offense. hell, no big $s are going to an offensive player most likely.
TRS86
5/3/2011-12:31pm at 12:31 pm (UTC -4)
Have not said and I think it’s actually a good idea that they do not spend big money on an offensive player. You would however, have enough for stop gaps if guys like Kirk or Fmart are not options.
njstuckintx
5/3/2011-12:04pm at 12:04 pm (UTC -4)
But where are you spending that money? on RF? What offensive spots need to be filled?
stickguy
5/3/2011-12:10pm at 12:10 pm (UTC -4)
none that they are likely to spend it on. If Bay can’t be moved, then pretty much the entire IF (other than SS) is filled or has a guy pending, LF blocked, leaving CF and RF, and the one thing the mets do have is OF prospects.
maybe they get a mid-priced 1 year guy to fill in the gap at SS, RF or CF? but again, don’t need much money for that.
TRS86
5/3/2011-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
Again, you have money for SP, BP, money for stop gaps and money long-term when you have a real FA to spend it on.
saltygary
5/3/2011-12:44pm at 12:44 pm (UTC -4)
A little late to the party but always game for a trade reyes conversation. Especially if TRS is starting to be drawn to the darkside.
Per Stick’s comment above about only being able to get a guy like Cabrera. Cabrera signed a 1m contract this year and has 17 RBI is batting close to 300 and is a average fielder. Reyes is making 11m for about the same average have as many RBI same amount of runs and some SB’s. To me if the money will be spent there will be a better benefit to getting prospects and letting Reyes go.
stickguy
5/3/2011-12:51pm at 12:51 pm (UTC -4)
problem is, most of the old, 1mill flyer guys give you crap. He just happened to be the name I could come up with off the top of my head!
TRS86
5/3/2011-12:59pm at 12:59 pm (UTC -4)
While you might not get Cabrerra results you should be able to net league average results for minimal cash. Hell isn’t that one of the things Sandy is supposed to be good at?
saltygary
5/3/2011-1:08pm at 1:08 pm (UTC -4)
Some SS FA’s that will fetch little money and put up fine numbers:
Orlando Cabrera (37)
Alex Gonzalez (34)
Omar Infante (30)
Marco Scutaro (36)
Pay 2m for one of the above and 13m elsewhere + a solid prospect in return for Reyes or 15m a year for Reyes? Easy decision for me.
njstuckintx
5/3/2011-1:09pm at 1:09 pm (UTC -4)
If you go to Boston vs. SF, you have Scutaro as a stop gap.
saltygary
5/3/2011-1:19pm at 1:19 pm (UTC -4)
A stop gap is exactly what we should be looking for. This team is not going to miraculously turn around and be a top contender next year. Too many pieces to work on. Plus Flores is making his way up (I know SS might not be where he is located in the end).
stickguy
5/3/2011-1:33pm at 1:33 pm (UTC -4)
the problem is, a stop gap is usually the guy you get when you have a stud prospect that isn’t quite ready. When you have no one in the system at all, then he is your “real” guy!
I also think they should trade Pagan if he ever gets back and does anything, or at least in the off season. My new fascination is Den Decker, my dark horse to take the CF job next year (if Kirk isn’t able to handle it)
saltygary
5/3/2011-1:41pm at 1:41 pm (UTC -4)
But there is no value in Pagan. All it would be is a salary dump. The only players with value (besides youngsters) are Reyes, Wright and if they want to eat some salary Beltran and KROD. If BEato keeps it up they could probably get something as well, but I would rather hold on to him.
TRS86
5/3/2011-1:45pm at 1:45 pm (UTC -4)
Yup right now the only players that net you much in return are Wright, Reyes, Ike, Niese. Beltran and Krod are salary dumps unless you are eating a ton of cash. Pagan, unless he returns to form, is just as valuable AS a stop gap.
stickguy
5/3/2011-1:45pm at 1:45 pm (UTC -4)
sure, pagan would have to start playing better to have some value. But don’t count on him being tendered anyway, since the FO understands it isn’t worth paying 3rd year arb money for minimum wage production.
beato you hang onto. He is young, super cheap, and controllable, combined with actually seeming to be an effective pitcher. a rare combo, especially for the Mets!
TRS86
5/3/2011-1:54pm at 1:54 pm (UTC -4)
3rd year arbitration for a league average CF at worst you have to remember. Even if he does not rebound to last year’s levels, considering his defense and speed he would still be worth the money and 1 year commitment for CF stop gap.
stickguy
5/3/2011-2:03pm at 2:03 pm (UTC -4)
depends on how much he rebounds. If he has an off year til the end, Sandy could just say it aint worth paying him 5 mill to do what some of the kids can do for 500K.
saltygary
5/3/2011-2:08pm at 2:08 pm (UTC -4)
Rebound from what? He’s not that good. Puts in great effort but he just doesn’t have it. There’s better odds that Bernard Gilkey will rebound.
stickguy
5/3/2011-2:13pm at 2:13 pm (UTC -4)
I had this debate a few times with TRS, but I said all along that he is a really good 4th OF.
kingman 26
5/3/2011-2:35pm at 2:35 pm (UTC -4)
You guys are nuts.
Pagan’s a top-ten MLB outfielder.
Sabermetrics based on 3 months in 2010 prove it.
Some Met sites with 12 readers said it; it must be true!
njstuckintx
5/3/2011-1:53pm at 1:53 pm (UTC -4)
TRS, do you and Tim converse often?
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/05/the-giants-and-jose-reyes.html
njstuckintx
5/3/2011-1:56pm at 1:56 pm (UTC -4)
Looks like Bumgarden is a pipe dream, according to that article.
saltygary
5/3/2011-2:02pm at 2:02 pm (UTC -4)
Maybe not the way this year is going. The guy is 0-5 right now, the lunatic fringe would freak at that trade.
njstuckintx
5/3/2011-2:06pm at 2:06 pm (UTC -4)
his last outting he went 7, had 7Ks, 4 Hits against, 1 walk, zero earned runs and lost. He’s just got bad luck.
saltygary
5/3/2011-2:11pm at 2:11 pm (UTC -4)
Oh I know. Hell wasn’t it Matt Cain that went through that same kind of stretch a couple years ago? The Giants have less offense than my RDM fantasy team.
njstuckintx
5/3/2011-2:20pm at 2:20 pm (UTC -4)
That’s the only thing I have in that league, luckily there are more offensive categories than pitching, so i’ve been squeaking by…
TRS86
5/3/2011-2:30pm at 2:30 pm (UTC -4)
Then we, my friend, need to work out a trade!
saltygary
5/3/2011-2:45pm at 2:45 pm (UTC -4)
He I want to be in the trade mix as well. Threw the last one out to at least get the conversation going.
TRS86
5/3/2011-2:49pm at 2:49 pm (UTC -4)
I have a Matt Latos for sale. Will take a slugger in return. Don’t need to worry about K’s and OBP, already know I am going to tank K’s and OBP is decent as is.
njstuckintx
5/3/2011-3:07pm at 3:07 pm (UTC -4)
Let me pick up Mark Reynolds and then we can work something out!
TRS86
5/3/2011-3:08pm at 3:08 pm (UTC -4)
LOL, I already dumped him. Was not hitting the HR.
stickguy
5/3/2011-2:11pm at 2:11 pm (UTC -4)
the lunatics (and their fringe) have been running the show for too long. Hopefully that has changed (with slappy McNorangeaton being a last sacrifice).
The wheeler guy sounds interesting. and worth more than the potential draft picks. But who knows, if the Giants were desperate, maybe they do Bamgarner and promote him? Or wheeler plus some other lower level prospect?
at this point, if it makes the team better and with more upside, I don’t care if they trade Reyes, but I stil say if they do, it is 95% all about the Benjamins.
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-2:08pm at 2:08 pm (UTC -4)
Sigh…
1/2 rental. That’s the sticking point most seem to gloss over.
Just what kind of ‘established ML talent’ or prospects are we getting in return for 1/2 rental of Reyes?
I’ve said it before and I’ll keep saying it:
If they trade Reyes mid season it’s about the money and nothing but the money. And good luck trying to put any kind of positive spin on it, Sandy.
stickguy
5/3/2011-2:11pm at 2:11 pm (UTC -4)
once again, great (or is it old?) minds think alike!
and if the Giants need him that bad, make a deal now. why wait?
saltygary
5/3/2011-2:13pm at 2:13 pm (UTC -4)
Teams can get creative and do some kind of sign and trade. You think Reyes would turn down a decent long term commitment if it was offered during the trade?
njstuckintx
5/3/2011-2:19pm at 2:19 pm (UTC -4)
Santana didn’t!
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-2:49pm at 2:49 pm (UTC -4)
If Reyes wouldn’t turn down a ‘long term commitment’ then Sandy should get busy and offer him one. If he doesn’t, again….it’s about the money and nothing but the money’.
And for what it’s going to take to sign Reyes if he hits FA, from what I’m reading, I don’t think the Giants can or would be willing to make that kind of extension offer.
If Reyes were traded to the Giants, I’ll be the ranch he plays hard the second half with the intention of hitting FA and picking HIS team to play for.
TRS86
5/3/2011-3:19pm at 3:19 pm (UTC -4)
Well if Reyes is not going to agree to a contract window then most likely the Mets WOULD keep him unless really blown away.
That being said I still disagree as I have many times that not re-signing Reyes is just about money. Its also about talent in the system. We can blame Omar all we want but facts are facts, we need young talent and you can’t get that type of talent from the FA market you have to trade someone to get it. If you want to do it just by the draft then it may be 5 years or more of this type of team and then Reyes would have been wasted anyway.
As I ask before, if not by trading Reyes, where does this talent come from?
The Omar tried and true method of just keep what you got and spend big on FA has not worked.
TRS86
5/3/2011-2:32pm at 2:32 pm (UTC -4)
I still don’t think trading Reyes is JUST about money. Again, how do we get better if we re-sign Reyes and do not bring any more prospects in? Sign more aging FA to the back end of the rotation? Something has to give.
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-2:54pm at 2:54 pm (UTC -4)
You get better by keeping Reyes AND going after what you need.
I keep going back to what team in their right mind would trade or let walk a very good home grown SS talent that’s still young and a fan favorite? The answer is usually small market teams that can’t afford to sign him in his prime or the NY Mets ’cause they’ve dug a hole for themselves.
Of course, that’s going to be difficult because of the financial bind the Mets are apparently in (again…money problems) and while their farm system has some nice to good talent, they don’t have an overabundant amount of talent to use as trade chips. Hence, the # one area I’ve commented concerning Omar and not stock piling draft picks where he could have.
darknova306
5/3/2011-2:59pm at 2:59 pm (UTC -4)
Are they going to be able to afford to pay Reyes AND get the immense amount of pitching they need to contend? That’s the real question. Reyes’ best years will likely be behind him by the time this team is ready to contend anyway.
TRS86
5/3/2011-3:03pm at 3:03 pm (UTC -4)
If they don’t infuse the organization with pitching, you are right Reyes will be to no avail. They have to get pitching from someplace and right now Reyes is the most logical answer. Where else do you get it from? Deal what few prospects we have for a Garza type? Sign Mark Buherle to a 3/36?
darknova306
5/3/2011-2:56pm at 2:56 pm (UTC -4)
That’s exactly why I’ve moved to the trade Reyes camp. What good does it do to re-sign him if there’s no money to make the team better? That just gives you the same awful team we see this season (minus Beltran and hopefully K-Rod). No thanks.
TRS86
5/3/2011-3:01pm at 3:01 pm (UTC -4)
And considering the FA market, even if they had money how could they make their team better? Top starter on the market I think is Mark Buherle or something.
stickguy
5/3/2011-3:11pm at 3:11 pm (UTC -4)
If both those guys go, you use the money from 1 to reduce payroll, and the other one is used to get other players.
entirely possible they cut 4-6 mill additional on each of a couple of guys. And that is without the holy grail, unloading bay!
say they trade Pelf and get a few prospects back. And maybe they trade (or if he continues to blow chunks, DFA) pagan. based on arb #s, they probably will combine for 10mill? Move on from them, and invest that money elsewhere (their replacements, or other needs).
basically you look at what you guys you have ready to step in, and if they are blocked, move the guy blocking them (if like pelf or pagan they are not top players), and use the savings to plug holes elsewhere.
the big issue I think with moving reyes is, they have no one in the system at all close to being a viable ML SS, and the pickings are pretty slim on outside options.
TRS86
5/3/2011-3:14pm at 3:14 pm (UTC -4)
Again you can find mlb average SS for cheap. You can’t find a young pitcher with ace potential without making a trade. Re-signing Reyes and trying to patch the staff with Chris Capuano’s or spending big money on Buherle gets you well…. 2011.
Prismo
5/3/2011-2:43pm at 2:43 pm (UTC -4)
LOL at people trying to figure out how the team gets better while resigning Reyes.
Here’s a thought for ya – how does a team improve while lowering payroll by $40MM?
Aside from the normal flakiness of player performance, a team doesn’t get better while shedding $40MM payroll – certainly not in ONE offseason.
TRS86
5/3/2011-2:47pm at 2:47 pm (UTC -4)
No one says they will shed 40M. Just shed. Could be 20M, might be 25M. They have already shed 18M with most likely only positive effects.
Prismo
5/3/2011-2:49pm at 2:49 pm (UTC -4)
So if they’re only shedding $20MM, why can’t they use the Ollie/Castillo money to resign Reyes and improve the team with other money they’ll have to spend?
TRS86
5/3/2011-2:58pm at 2:58 pm (UTC -4)
Can’t improve this team with current crop of FA. The organization needs a talent infusion and you most likely will have to trade a guy like Reyes to get it.
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-3:01pm at 3:01 pm (UTC -4)
Wish I knew how much of that money coming off the books Sandy isn’t going to spend. I understand the need for flexibility. I’m just wonder if that flexibility = lowering payroll by 20 MIL or lowering payroll all the way down to 100 MIL…or even lower.
And could be Sandy and Co. really don’t know right now. Could be some of it depends on revenues from this year. Right now, that’s not looking too good seeing as how we’re currently sitting in last place…..
TRS86
5/3/2011-3:05pm at 3:05 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah revenues are going to be in the tank but the Wilpons are smart enough to know that to get the revenue back up they will have to spend SOME money. I would expect between 115-130M for next year pending Krod.
Honestly if they re-sign Krod then I expect a few moves like we did this year and that’s it. Honestly that would leave us again hoping a lot of things break right.
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-3:08pm at 3:08 pm (UTC -4)
Wish I had your confidence b/c I truly see it closer to 100 million than 130. But good point about KRod.
TRS86
5/3/2011-3:09pm at 3:09 pm (UTC -4)
Eh, then we are only off by about 15M. If they don’t re-sign Reyes it very well could be 110ish considering the current FA market.
stickguy
5/3/2011-3:18pm at 3:18 pm (UTC -4)
If they are going to be competitive in the next few years, no matter what they do with reyes, payroll, etc., they absolutely have to have a couple more Ike-level “hits” out of the MiL system. if they don’t, they will never be able to catch up.
say harvey and Kirk (or F Mart, pick your favorite) both come up next year and play well, and become real players in 2013. Then they can compete. If they get a couple more nick evans, oops.
TRS86
5/3/2011-3:22pm at 3:22 pm (UTC -4)
They need pitching and more pitching. We have Harvey and Harvey. You can get offense at times from FA, it’s hard as hell to net durable ace pitching from FA.
IF you could get Bumgarner for Reyes then IMO you have to do it. Are the Giants that desperate? I hope so. If not then you hang on to Reyes until either someone is or until arbitration.
stickguy
5/3/2011-2:57pm at 2:57 pm (UTC -4)
you can make all kind of objective, stat based arguements about trading reyes and making the team “better” overall.
but the single biggest reason not to is probably having to see/hear all the whining, bitching, complaining and general nastiness of the bulk of the fans (and fan sites and their comments), and of course the MSM. It will be a truly ugly experience, unless (or maybe even if) they get a shockingly good return back.
TRS86
5/3/2011-2:59pm at 2:59 pm (UTC -4)
Again, it’s all about the return. Imagine those same sites if they do re-sign Reyes but do NOTHING else but sign Chris Capuano….
darknova306
5/3/2011-3:00pm at 3:00 pm (UTC -4)
The atmosphere around this team by the MSM and fans will be ugly until they start winning, regardless of Reyes. Sandy needs to do whatever it takes to get a consistent winner on the field, even if it means suffering with whining for a few years from the fans.
TRS86
5/3/2011-3:02pm at 3:02 pm (UTC -4)
Bingo. I still don’t think it takes a few years. IF IF IF you could get that trade I listed this morning you could be competitive at best by next year and at worst IMO by 2013.
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-3:02pm at 3:02 pm (UTC -4)
O.K. guys….help me out. ‘MSM’?
Ceetar
5/3/2011-3:03pm at 3:03 pm (UTC -4)
My Sweet Mustache.
wait no, main stream media.
TRS86
5/3/2011-3:03pm at 3:03 pm (UTC -4)
Took me a minute but guessing main stream media.
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-3:06pm at 3:06 pm (UTC -4)
Ah…thanks guys.
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-3:05pm at 3:05 pm (UTC -4)
Which is why I believe Sandy was the choice for GM over everyone else.
I think he will do whatever is necessary, looking at the long term picture vs. short term. –Made easier by the fact that we’re certainly not in that ‘win now’ type of window.
I just think it’s going to be a lot ugly than whining, especially if they trade him vs. making it look like they just couldn’t resign him ’cause he wanted to test FA.
TRS86
5/3/2011-3:07pm at 3:07 pm (UTC -4)
Honestly what the Mets do is approach him with a very public modest extension and if he takes it great, if not then you have your justification for trade.
That being said, how much worse will it get attendance wise? At some point you bottom out.
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-3:09pm at 3:09 pm (UTC -4)
Marlin worse? LOL.
TRS86
5/3/2011-3:10pm at 3:10 pm (UTC -4)
I just don’t think you get that in NY until you really have went through MANY years of suckitude. Some fans would still show up to see Wright, Davis, Niese, Dickey, Harvey, and the youngins.
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-3:14pm at 3:14 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, I was really just joking.
Really gets me pissed every time we play the Phils at CBP and they tell us ’135 consecutive sell outs’. Dang…even the Yankees who have competed for the past 15 years can’t claim that.
TRS86
5/3/2011-3:15pm at 3:15 pm (UTC -4)
What else you gonna do in Philly?
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-3:21pm at 3:21 pm (UTC -4)
LOL…zing.
stickguy
5/3/2011-3:27pm at 3:27 pm (UTC -4)
I was there Sunday. Went to Ikea.
the sell outs were a perfect storm of new (smaller)stadium buzz right when they were going into their once a generation good period.
trust me, before 2008, there were always plenty of good seats available, and Met fans often outnumbered Philly fans at those games.
saltygary
5/3/2011-3:29pm at 3:29 pm (UTC -4)
Marlins have different issues. That stadium looks absolutely horrible to watch a baseball game ,it’s in a poor location, and they have a ton of rain outs. Once that stadium is completed, they will be more competitive.
Ceetar
5/3/2011-2:59pm at 2:59 pm (UTC -4)
Oooh, roster move? Only temporary. From the Bisons. hmm..
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-3:12pm at 3:12 pm (UTC -4)
I’m seeing Bay on paternity leave and Duda recalled.
Is that what you’re referring to?
stickguy
5/3/2011-3:23pm at 3:23 pm (UTC -4)
didn’t he ever hear of Skype?
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-3:27pm at 3:27 pm (UTC -4)
Oh, you are so bad…….
Try and sell that to any woman who is giving birth.
stickguy
5/3/2011-3:30pm at 3:30 pm (UTC -4)
he can cut her a check for a $1,000,000. she will get over it.
And frankly, he gets 4 months off every year (even more last year!), so how can they not plan this better?
TRS86
5/3/2011-3:12pm at 3:12 pm (UTC -4)
Jason Bay is taking some paternity leave to be with his wife for the birth of their 3rd child.
Can’t wait to see the idiots spin this one into Bay bashing.
Prismo
5/3/2011-3:15pm at 3:15 pm (UTC -4)
Jason Bay is soft-headed!!!
Wait, no…that’s his baby.
Awwww.
stickguy
5/3/2011-3:22pm at 3:22 pm (UTC -4)
he has 2 already. Been there, done that. And plenty of “stolen
money to hire lots of helpers.
take 1 day, watch the big event, then get back.
stickguy
5/3/2011-3:22pm at 3:22 pm (UTC -4)
wait, what am I saying? Take the rest of the year off! Hell, retire, and become mister Mom!
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-3:24pm at 3:24 pm (UTC -4)
But doesn’t Bay live in Canada? I’m thinking even if he’s there for 1 day with travel that’s gotta be at least 3 days off.
stickguy
5/3/2011-3:28pm at 3:28 pm (UTC -4)
seattle I think, based on all the consternation from when he did not fly in for the minicamp.
not the first kid. And the baby won’t know. besides, the wife does all the work.
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-3:34pm at 3:34 pm (UTC -4)
I know your baiting me, stick.
Trust me when I say if you tried to sell that to the mother of your child, you wouldn’t have to worry about her doing any ‘work’ for you ever again. LOL.
kingman 26
5/3/2011-4:05pm at 4:05 pm (UTC -4)
Still MF4D, and again, I support men doing this, I truly do, but Bay’s wife lives like a wealthy queen, and has her husband home at least 4+ months a year—due to his extreme privileges as a baseball player.
The way these people live is not how we live.
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-3:23pm at 3:23 pm (UTC -4)
‘Idiots’. Apt description for anyone begrudging a man the opportunity to be with the mother of his child when it’s being born.
saltygary
5/3/2011-3:32pm at 3:32 pm (UTC -4)
For someone with 2 kids I can’t understand why on earth he wants to be present for a 3rd. Thank goodness for IUD’s
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-3:35pm at 3:35 pm (UTC -4)
You guys are killing me.
LOL.
gategem
5/3/2011-7:06pm at 7:06 pm (UTC -4)
LOL I have 12 children from 4 different wives. When number 12 was born I was in Italy on a business trip and flow back immediately after I completed partying and meeting the girl that was to become wife number 5.
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-11:09pm at 11:09 pm (UTC -4)
I was originally gonna comment ‘LOL’, but I’m afraid you’re actually serious.
I’ll just say that no grass grows under your feet.
kingman 26
5/3/2011-3:29pm at 3:29 pm (UTC -4)
I support athletes doing this 100%, but Bay is a joke. A really bad, extraordinarily expensive frigin joke.
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-3:32pm at 3:32 pm (UTC -4)
This from some poster named RazorShines on MLBTR on that Reyes trade article:
I think I speak for all Mets fans when I say Reyes is not going to be traded. This is New York, we dont trade good players, we pay them. Trading Reyes will hurt the team on many aspects, leadoff man, SS and attendence. The Wilpons are selling a portion of the team to new buyers, those guys wont invest if they know Reyes will be gone. All this trade talk id propoganda and kicking the Mets while they are down. He will be resigned as soon as the new buyers are officially partial owners…6 yrs 90 mil.
*******************
Now THAT’S what I’m talking about.
saltygary
5/3/2011-3:35pm at 3:35 pm (UTC -4)
Well he is currently on a team where their attendance is down 15% from the year before. Attendance relates to winning not who is on the field. And as you said above 4D, if the team doesn’t resign him it’s because they can;t afford to do that and improve the team.
kingman 26
5/3/2011-3:36pm at 3:36 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, but 6/90 will not be close.
Crawford is basically the same offensive player, he plays a much less important defensive position, and he is two years older. And got 7 years and almost 140.
If Jose plays 155–160 games and winds up with the numbers he is on pace for, there’s zero chance he gets less than about 6/110 or 7/120 from someone.
No chance.
stickguy
5/3/2011-3:46pm at 3:46 pm (UTC -4)
if he will take 6/90, sign him now. I will let them borrow a pen and everything.
kingman 26
5/3/2011-3:57pm at 3:57 pm (UTC -4)
Just never, ever going to happen.
Why in the world would he take that after what Crawford, Werth, and Braun got? It’s fantasyland.
Unless, of course, he just wants to stay to be part of a perennially contending, first-class organization.
Oh, wait……
stickguy
5/3/2011-3:35pm at 3:35 pm (UTC -4)
Time to be really snarky.
Bay got his concussion on 7/26/10. which means, unless his wife is weeks late, his concussion symptoms could not have been too bad there at the beginning! I guess he was laying around the house in a dark room…
kingman 26
5/3/2011-3:37pm at 3:37 pm (UTC -4)
HAHA!
Bay’s Met tenure is a bad joke.
A really bad one.
Look at his game logs since the AZ series.
He’s well on his way to a repeat of last year.
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-3:38pm at 3:38 pm (UTC -4)
HAHAHAHA….I cannot believe you put this much thought into it.
Next thing you know, Bay is gonna be asking for a paternity test….
njstuckintx
5/3/2011-3:42pm at 3:42 pm (UTC -4)
If drunk people can get pregnant, no reason not to think that the concussed can’t either!
stickguy
5/3/2011-3:45pm at 3:45 pm (UTC -4)
if he was good for that, why couldn’t he wander around in LF for a couple of hours a night?
kingman 26
5/3/2011-3:48pm at 3:48 pm (UTC -4)
Or visit the team once or twice while collecting 1.33 million a month?
njstuckintx
5/3/2011-3:50pm at 3:50 pm (UTC -4)
I can’t harp on Bay cause he got laid while he was hurt.
stickguy
5/3/2011-3:55pm at 3:55 pm (UTC -4)
probably faked the whole thing (the injury part!).
njstuckintx
5/3/2011-3:57pm at 3:57 pm (UTC -4)
+ a chuckle.
kingman 26
5/3/2011-4:02pm at 4:02 pm (UTC -4)
Hey, I can never harp on someone for that.
Overall, Bay’s just a joke.
And again, I support athletes doing this, I really do.
But if a case could ever be made against it, this would be a great place to start…..Bay’s third child, and after what he has been paid for the last year+?
stickguy
5/3/2011-3:45pm at 3:45 pm (UTC -4)
Back to Reyes for a moment (to finish up the debate with TRS).
If (a truly long shot) they trade Reyes for a stud SP + a prospect (your Bumgarner idea), then yes, there is a BB component to it (on top of the money).
But, if they let him walk as a FA, then it is waving the white “we’re poor” flag! Since that will not lead to any more productive ML talent for many years to come.
the trade idea though is better in that it keeps you competitive (somewhat), but only if you really do get a budding star out of it. If you get a couple of filler pieces (Chris Carter anyone?) then that screams even more salary dump, since you save signing bonuses and get no viable talent back.
metsfan4decades
5/3/2011-3:55pm at 3:55 pm (UTC -4)
Once again, we seem to be sharing a brain (unless it’s should you be present when your wife gives birth debate).
Seriously, trading a 1/2 rental I believe is just not going to net what others think it might – or should.
And I’m really afraid once he hits FA, there is no way the Mets are going to compete in that market this year.