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Mets, Mr. North Jersey, Real Dirty Mets Blog
by Mr North Jersey
Mets WEAKend against Dodgers
Artwork courtesy of Joe Petruccio’s My NY Mets Journal Blog
5/9/2011-1:53pm at 1:53 pm (UTC -4)
Man, this site is dead today.
The RISP has been a problem for years now. Should we just blame the core and be done with it?
5/9/2011-1:59pm at 1:59 pm (UTC -4)
Kind of feels like beating a dead horse right now…
5/9/2011-2:15pm at 2:15 pm (UTC -4)
Not that easy. Reyes is not in a RISP slot in the lineup and Wright’s BARISP for his career is about right in line with what the average of the last 4 years has been which is right about what his average has been for 2010 and 2011 combined.
I think it has much more to do with guys like Shawn Green and Jason Bay/ guys like Willie Harris and Ryan Church.
5/9/2011-2:23pm at 2:23 pm (UTC -4)
Honestly, there isn’t much to talk about. The trade scenarios have been beaten to death. There isn’t anyone at AAA who’s exciting people for a possible call up. Most of the good prospects at that level are injured. It’s probably too early in the season to start seeing roster moves throughout MLB, so here we sit, 6 games or so below .500 and desperate for change, yet don’t want lose the beloved Mets we have. Catch 22, I guess.
5/9/2011-2:28pm at 2:28 pm (UTC -4)
probably looking at 6 weeks, minimum, before any trades start popping. And I guess we will know by then (or have a damn good guess) what this team really is capable of.
I hope they hit july at least at .500.
5/9/2011-2:27pm at 2:27 pm (UTC -4)
they are starting to make some moves at least in the minors. Familia to AA might just be the first domino. Or I suppose just 1 guy that earned the bump!
5/9/2011-2:59pm at 2:59 pm (UTC -4)
I believe Toby Hyde tweeted that they didn’t want both Familia and Harvey on the same team as it left the rest of their pitching prospects exposed to a single PT Cruiser.
5/9/2011-2:44pm at 2:44 pm (UTC -4)
here’s a question. Would be getting back to .500 or a touch over by mid-late June be good, or bad? That is, do you think it will lead to moves not being made that you would rather see happen?
Kind of like a few years back when the white sox were hanging around the fringe of the playoff chase, but the GM knew it was a mirage (with nothing positive staring at him in the future) so he blew up the team anyway.
I know that Omar would play the “we’re contenders” card every time (though never getting any players to help out, other than Slappy). But do you think Sandy will take the more realistic view and make the hard decisions?
Mostly I worry about Beltran, if he is still the best hitter on the team and playing daily, he should have some serious rental value still, but will they feel pressured to keep him, in a pretense of staying in the race?
I’d say in previous regimes (hint hint), the thought of being close put this team into a ‘just one more piece” mode. If they are close to .500, I would say that they will still look to rebuild this team, but more with a bulldozer vs. this team being well below .500 and they go with the nuke method.
Bulldozer Method: Possibly trade Reyes, depending on return, trade Beltran, Possibly Krod, and maybe a minor move or 2 (Trading Cap, or maybe Pagan?).
Nuke Method: Kill them all, let God sort out the details. No one by Ike left standing.
5/9/2011-3:42pm at 3:42 pm (UTC -4)
They haven’t won a series against a team with a winning record all year, unless you count the Marlins, who were actually 1-1 when we beat them to win the series.
Between now and mid-June we have 3 in COL, 2 vs FLA, 3 at NYY, 3 vs PHIL, and 3 home and away vs ATL.
Even if they go 9-8 in those games—which they never will–that makes them 24–27. Then they have to go 11-8 in the other 19, which does include 8 with PIT.
So, you could say that the 8 games with the Pirates are huge.
More likely? They go 7–10 in the 17, are 22–29, and have to then go 13–6 against the mediocre teams to be sitting at 35–35 on June 16.
And right after that?
Series with the Angels, OAK, TX, DET, and NYY. Then a west coast trip.
After the all-star break? PHIL, STL, FLA, CIN.
So, in all reality, the schedule becomes absolutely brutal starting on June 14.
The next 5 weeks are their chance to get to .500. Just as this period was last year.
5/9/2011-4:00pm at 4:00 pm (UTC -4)
You know who else hasn’t won a series against a good team, excepting one series against the Braves when the Braves were .500 early in April?
5/9/2011-4:09pm at 4:09 pm (UTC -4)
Well, good point….but they did sweep four on the road in SD and swept the Astros and the Nats at home.
5/9/2011-4:16pm at 4:16 pm (UTC -4)
Pirates are no pushovers… they have better record than the Mets.. I believe they are at .500.
5/9/2011-2:58pm at 2:58 pm (UTC -4)
3 games against the slumping Rockies, then the crappy Astros, the green Marlins and the Nats before the Yanks. 10 games. Would be nice to win 7 of them to put us right back at .500.
They’ve been playing just above .500 baseball lately, but Bay and Wright have plenty of room to get better. These teams are not world beaters by any stretch, with the exception of getting shut down by a good pitching performance, they should be able to smack the ball around and win some games.
5/9/2011-3:07pm at 3:07 pm (UTC -4)
records this early can stil be misleading.
Heck, even the mets, if you look at that 7 game losing streak, there were a couple of “how the hell did they blow that game” losses in there IIRC.
so just take 2 of them back, and they are at .500 right now.
baseball seasons are really long, and teams normally float to the level of their talent by the end. They just don’t always get there in a linear fashion.
5/9/2011-3:16pm at 3:16 pm (UTC -4)
Of course not, but the Rockies are not playing well right now. They’re also probably not that good any way. The Mets can certainly win these games. June has some tougher teams, so you’d llike to climb out of the .500 hole and get some breathing room by then.
5/9/2011-3:23pm at 3:23 pm (UTC -4)
funny thing is, Tulo overall has pretty mediocre numbers. If you take out his MVP series vs. the mets, he is hitting in the .230s with 4 HRs and 10 RBIs! And right now, in a massive slump.
hopefully the Mets don’t snap him out of it again.
oh, and keep in mind the Mets only have 3 games left in Philly this season.
5/9/2011-3:26pm at 3:26 pm (UTC -4)
Yup. Limiting it to only 2011, there is one SS that’s clearly been the best.
5/9/2011-3:33pm at 3:33 pm (UTC -4)
You are aware that the Mets lost six of seven at home to the Rockies and Astros, right?
5/9/2011-3:57pm at 3:57 pm (UTC -4)
yes, and they squandered opportunities to win those games and Tulo was on fire. They can beat those teams. I can practically guarentee they won’t lose 6 of seven (well, 5 of 6) against them. i’d be surprised if they split them. They’ll likely have a winning record over these next 10. be nice if it could be more than 6-4 though. Not that I’m scared of the Yankees by any means. Would love to watch them flail at Dickey’s knuckler, and how that Pelfrey’s got the sinker going again, it’ll be a joy to watch Jeter ground out softly.
5/9/2011-4:20pm at 4:20 pm (UTC -4)
And squandering opportunity after opportunity is was bad teams do. They find a way to lose, just as the Mets have been pretty good at.
5/9/2011-4:43pm at 4:43 pm (UTC -4)
actually, that’s what ALL teams do. squander opportunities. That the Mets have being doing it more regularly is further evidence that they’ve been unlucky and will be better than they have been.
5/9/2011-4:47pm at 4:47 pm (UTC -4)
Unlucky or just overmatched when it counts?
5/9/2011-5:14pm at 5:14 pm (UTC -4)
Not really Ceetar.
It’s most definitely not “evidence” of anything.
It might or might not change; but it is not “evidence” of anything other than that they cannot beat good teams.
Good teams win close games; bad teams lose them.
5/9/2011-4:57pm at 4:57 pm (UTC -4)
You think Reyes will give the Mets a home town discount? I know at this pace, Reyes’ demand will be far out of reach for the Mets. But given how Jose loves it in NY, and his home is in LI, etc etc.. Maybe something like 6/90M could work?
I really doubt that Reyes will get Crawford money. I know it only takes 1 team to drive up his price, but is he really worth $20M??
5/9/2011-5:12pm at 5:12 pm (UTC -4)
It depends. Does he want to take more money to play for a contender, or does he want to take less money to languish in last place because he likes living in NY?
5/9/2011-5:27pm at 5:27 pm (UTC -4)
I see Rubin has an article up where if Young is done, we only owe him the base salary of 1.1 MIL and none of the rest of it.
Goody…more money for the Reyes kitty.
5/9/2011-5:28pm at 5:28 pm (UTC -4)
Crawford aside, the Yankees just gave Jeter 15 MIL a year. That’s for an aging SS that no way, no how is he going to be worth that for any year in that 3 year contract.
Classic case of paying for past performance (and the ‘C’ on his uniform, IMO). If Jeter is getting 15 MIL, how much is Reyes worth than?
5/9/2011-5:39pm at 5:39 pm (UTC -4)
Reyes will make plenty of bank given that he’s an enormous top of the order threat and solid defender at a position that usually is all glove and no stick, and he’s in his prime years. Only question is: does he want to stay in NY or go somewhere that can lead him to a WS ring?
5/9/2011-6:01pm at 6:01 pm (UTC -4)
there really are no guarantees though about rings. And on a 5-7 year contract, your situation can change significantly long before the deal is done.
Look at the phils. the recent gold standard, everyone wants to go there. And it is possible they miss the playoffs this year, and trend downhill from there. Just takes 1-2 injuries combined with old guys acting old, and bingo, back to the pack.
the last 3 winners have been phils, giants and yankers. The Yanks are supposed to be the lock for the ring, and that was their first in a decade. The other 2, 2 years earlier were pretty much also ran, mid-pack teams.
so, ya never know.
5/9/2011-6:10pm at 6:10 pm (UTC -4)
No guarantees. Definitely. I’m getting at probabilities. The Mets have little big league pitching, and very few minor league arms. With teams locking up their good young pitching longer and earlier these days, it’s gonna take the Mets a while to develop a rotation worthy of contention. If I were Reyes, I’d look for a team that’s got a roster that could be poised for a run now or in the next 2-3 years, rather than 5-7.
5/9/2011-6:18pm at 6:18 pm (UTC -4)
You can’t even count out the Mets in 2-3 years. Just never know.
5/9/2011-6:06pm at 6:06 pm (UTC -4)
Not just Crawford—look at what Werth and Braun got.
Jose’s going to get 7/120 at least.
Maybe more if he continues at the pace he has set thus far.
5/9/2011-5:09pm at 5:09 pm (UTC -4)
This is all going to come down to pitching.
How can we possibly expect to stay ‘remotely in contention’ (addressing the to trade Beltran or not idea), when our rotation currently consists of:
Pelf: he hasn’t gotten off to a good start. I won’t be comfortable with him until I see 3 more quality starts in a row.
Niese: he’s still learning. He’s just as likely to throw a gem as to be run out in the 4th.
Dickey: Still think he’ll get it together this year, especially as it gets warmer but he hasn’t looked good so far.
Cap: Typical back end of the rotation type starter
Gee: Who I actually like but man…he’s pitching with a partially torn labrum. Like that’s gonna hold up for about 25 more starts.
Our depth is what: Misch? I honestly don’t even know who is next on the chart.
5/9/2011-7:35pm at 7:35 pm (UTC -4)
And now sounds like Young is almost officially done for the year.
5/9/2011-8:12pm at 8:12 pm (UTC -4)
oh well. worth a try
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