In a game where final stats are normally the judging point, sometimes it’s helpful to take a step back and look at more than just the end point.
For Niese this may be the most appropriate way to judge his current ability and hopefully future success.
Since giving up 5 runs on April 13th (back to back terrible outings), Niese has had 8 starts. In those 8 starts Niese has a 2.96 ERA, 5 quality starts and a 5-3 record. Over his last 3 starts he has been even better with a 0.98 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 18 innings.
So is this small sample size? Yeah, but there is a pattern however. Take a look at last year. His 2010 was full of streaks. Starting small sample we all remember the 4 game stretch of 1 run appearances in August. Over that span he had a 1.38 ERA. There were other streaks that also stand out. Over a 10 game span from June 5-July 27 Niese produced a 2.58 ERA and to expand that to 15 games from that June 5-August 21st Niese produced a half season worth of games at a 2.70 ERA.
What many forget is that Niese had an ERA of 3.76 heading into his final two starts and of course finished with 2 of his worst. Could that be considered normal for a rookie? This year, what do we have with Niese? A guy that when he is on can be as good as any pitcher in the “non-ace” category. Certainly good enough at times to be labeled an upper-rotation pitcher. Interesting is what happens though to cause those horrible starts mixed in between? Is it normal progression, good scouting, a flat curve-ball? This is not a Mike Pelfrey situation, at least not in my mind. So I do believe there is potential for Niese to figure it out and have a big 2nd half this year.
7 comments
stickguy
5/30/2011-2:03pm at 2:03 pm (UTC -4)
I am high on Neise, and have been for a while. No, he has not been perfectly consistent, but that is not at all abnormal for a young pitcher, certainly not a lefty! There aren’t many machines like Hallady floating around.
what he does have is stuff. when he is on, he can dominate. So it is not unreasonable to expect that as he gets more settled in, he will dominate more.
will he be Sandy Kaufax like soon? Probably not. Can he do what Hamels has done? Sure. So IMO even if he does not become a true ace, if he can pitch like a solid #2 guy, it would be fantastic. Maybe like Leiter in his better years? Hampton pre-Colorado?
he is still what, 24? Plenty of time to develop.
also, don’t forget that last year, he was coming off surgery, so did not have a full normal off season. He also IIRC pitched more innings that ever before, so entirely possible by mid-september he was just gassed. And I think Terry/Omar talked about shutting him down, but then kept running him out there instead.
darknova306
5/30/2011-2:18pm at 2:18 pm (UTC -4)
Let’s remember the mantra that so many people clung to with Ollie for so long: he’s got potential and lefties can be late bloomers. At 24, Niese is still developing and learning, and is most definitely holding his own in the rotation. His curveball looks better this year and he’s throwing it for strikes more often, which is nice to see.
And let’s not overlook the fact that Niese is composed on the mound. In the situations where Pelfrey would start yipping and falling apart, Niese battles through it without his emotions getting the better of him.
Who knows where Niese will wind up in the long run, but I like his stuff and love watching him pitch.
gategem
5/30/2011-2:21pm at 2:21 pm (UTC -4)
If Niese develops consistent and outstanding command of his pitches and learns how to change speeds and work hitters I believe he can be a successful number 2 type starter. Does he have ace talent? No he does not. His break on his curveball is not always sharp nor does he have great movement on his cutter nor does he throw his fastball with extreme velocity. Is he in the same class as Jerry Koosman, Jon Matlack, etc? No, but he could develop into a Cliff Lee type pitcher. Will he? Considering there are so few Cliff Lee type pitchers in the majors the answer is “your guess is as good as mine.”
stickguy
5/30/2011-3:04pm at 3:04 pm (UTC -4)
Cliff Lee is an interesting comparison. People tend to forget that for many years, he was a lefty with stuff and decidedly less than spectacular results.
from 2004-2007 (4 years) when he became a FT SP at age 25, he ranged from OK (1 year), barely adequate for 2, and horrid for the 4th. Frankly, he was not good at all.
before the 2008 season, I recall him being heavily mentioned as a trade possibility, and there was even discussion that Cleveland would DFA him. a 6.29 ERA and era+ of 72 (in 97 innings) in 2007 really did not portend a cy young season at age 29 in 2008! Hell, he even got sent to the minors in 2007 at age 28.
He really was 2010 Ollie in 2007, right down to all the walks.
long and rambling way to say, sometimes guys take a while to really develop into what they are ultimately going to become.
metsfan4decades
5/30/2011-2:35pm at 2:35 pm (UTC -4)
If I remember correctly, coming into mid August last year the organization had decided they were going to start limiting Niese’s innings coming into Sept and skipping a couple of starts over that month. Coming off an injury/surgery the year before, first full year in the majors, he was fast approaching a limit they didn’t want to go over.
Down goes Johan and that plan went out the window for Sept. We already had Gee filling in so depth was thin. So I have to take those last few years with a grain of salt. Niese himself admitted in ST this year he was worn out in Sep last year.
Going forward, I think Niese should be considered a solid middle rotation pitcher in this rotation for years to come. Ace? Probably not. For a young guy though he has more poise on the mound then Pelf is ever going to have and I think his best is yet to come. Might even progress to a #2 a few years down the road.
metsfan4decades
5/30/2011-3:14pm at 3:14 pm (UTC -4)
Off topic but…..did you see tonight’s lineup?
Bay with a day off, which is fine – but Murph batting cleanup?
It truly is 2009 all over again.
Meanwhile, Ike on his way back to NY for an MRI b/c he’s not healing.
I’ve often wondered….I guess the plane tickets are less expensive than paying for an MRI down in FL and sending the results to the doctors over at HFSS?
stickguy
5/30/2011-4:40pm at 4:40 pm (UTC -4)
this is bad. I’m smelling surgery,