The NY Mets are now officially 1/3 of the way through the season with a 25-29 record. Looking back on how they reached this record you can argue that all things considered the Mets have done pretty well in just getting to 25-29.
They came back from a horrible 5-13 start to reach .500. They have dealt with injuries to Bay, Pagan, Paulino, Young, Davis, Wright, Parnell, and Beato. They have dealt with ownership making ill-advised comments of it’s players. Then you have what can be described as the “Sword of Damocles” hanging over the Mets with Irving Picard seeking to clawback $1B from Sterling Equities.
In a year that some might describe as a transition year with players like Beltran & Reyes on their walk years. Ollie & Castillo era finally coming to an end. Krod’s option possibly not vesting allowing him to go free agency. Add newly hired GM Sandy Alderson also having the difficult task of trying to put a roster together with a limited payroll that saw his most expensive free agent signing being D. J. Carrasco at 2 years $2.5M and most of his signing being 1 year deals (mostly minor league) in what in my opinion can be described as an attempt to keep payroll commitments confined to this year. You can start seeing the idea of 2011 being a transition year is not so far fetched.
One of the early things that the Mets have shown is that they are not afraid to make changes if something is not working. Coming off a 2010 that saw Oliver Perez get paid $12M to sit in the pen and do nothing. This is something I don’t take lightly.
Here are 4 examples of players the Mets were not afraid to make changes when things were not working
- Brad Emaus – Rule 5 player returned to Toronto 3 weeks into season.
- D. J. Carrasco – sent to minors 4 weeks into season despite his 2 yr $2.5M deal
- Chin-lung Hu – sent to minors after 7 weeks due to inability to hit.
- Blaine Boyer – released 2 weeks into season.
Some may look at this as a negative on Alderson’s decision to begin with for signing the above individuals. For those that feel that way you may be right. With the exception of Carrasco whom I feel based on the 2 year contract he got I too have to question what was Alderson thinking. The other 3 Emaus, Hu and Boyer I look at as low risk moves that simply didn’t pay off.
Some other moves that didn’t pay off for Alderson are:
- Boof Bonser – Tommy John surgery - out for season
- Chris Young – Right shoulder surgery - out for season
Still in fairness there have been a few players that at least so far have been paying off as well. The 2 I would say most fans would agree fits with mostly being positive pickups with the least debate are:
- Pedro Beato
- Jason Isringhausen
Beato and Izzy along with KRod have helped provide the Mets a slightly better than initially expected pen so far this year.
One of the biggest arguments I hear regarding the Mets decisions this season has to be roster choices to start the season. The players most questioned when this topic comes up?
- How do you take Emaus over Turner?
- How do you take Hu over Tejada?
- How do you take Capuano over Gee?
All I can say is that unless I’m mistaken my understanding is when these decisions are made some of the things a GM takes into consideration is who has options and who doesn’t and what is best for the development of a prospect. Did that play a part in the above 3 scenarios? I don’t know.
54 games down 1/3 of the season done. When the Mets reach 2/3 of the season (108th game) it will be July 31st. My guess is a lot of what may shape the future for better or worse may have taken place by then. Time will tell.
Let me leave you with my best attempt to chronicle most of the player transactions that have occurred since Sandy Alderson has taken over back in Oct 2010.
50 comments
stickguy
6/1/2011-7:21am at 7:21 am (UTC -4)
that’s a lot of playes!
anyway, overall, Sandy IMO has done a good job with limited funds. Would have been nice to get 1 more reliable/healthy SP, but those were few and far between.
to answer some of your questions:
How do you take Emaus over Turner?
How do you take Hu over Tejada?
How do you take Capuano over Gee?
all of these were 100% about having options, and were an attempt to build depth. If they had initially gone the other way and the player failed, they may not have had the replacement on hand when needed!
Boyer over izzy was also partly this (izzy they could stash for a couple of weeks).
Yound was also a good risk, as long as you don’t look at him as having blocked another acquisition (I don’t, Gee just would have started with the Mets). Even a good value. 5 starts IRC for 1mill? He certainly gave production of a $6mill SP, which is what that projects out to! Tag team him with Gee, and you have a fine cheap SP.
TRS86
6/1/2011-7:35am at 7:35 am (UTC -4)
All three of those are about options baby.
You can’t get Chris Young or Chris Capuano to go to AAA for depth, you can Gee. Thus if you started with Gee in the rotation and did not sign Cap then uh Carrasco would be starting right now.
Same for Hu and Emaus. No organizational depth at those positions. Luckily we have Murphy and Turner who can actually hit and play multiple positions.
saltygary
6/1/2011-7:39am at 7:39 am (UTC -4)
Alderson has been great with the resources he has been given. Only having 10m to fill a third of the roster is a lot to ask. He has been professional and never wavers from his message. His message is always clear and he chooses his words wisely which is something that is needed in the NY market. If folks don’t know the current and long term direction of the team then they haven’t been listening.
Now on to the next stage of trading players and the draft. People might not be happy with the outcome, they rarely are, but right now I trust that Alderson and crew will make the right decision’s based on the hand they are dealt.
saltygary
6/1/2011-7:49am at 7:49 am (UTC -4)
BTW Keith Law is starting to do mock draft’s, that of course have no bearing or accuracy but currently he is projecting the Met’s to take Levi Michael with the 13th pick. “I’m guessing they’ll take a college player here and prepare to spend in later picks, with Michael, Mahtook and Jungmann all leading candidates. Earlier interest in Taylor Guerrieri seems to have cooled.”
Michael has established himself as the best college shortstop in this year’s draft, although the competition for that title wasn’t very strong. But as a switch-hitter who can run and has shown he can handle the position he’s almost certain to go in the first round.
Michael has good bat speed and an excellent eye at the plate, producing contact and working the count well. He tends to meet the ball out front rather than letting it travel; between that and his size he doesn’t generate much power even with some torque from his hips.
At shortstop, Michael is solid-average, making routine plays with enough arm but will probably never be plus there. He’s a well-above average runner with good feel for the game all around.
There are very few college shortstops this year who project to stay at the position and also project to hit. Michael does, which puts him at the top of the category.
metsfan4decades
6/1/2011-8:04am at 8:04 am (UTC -4)
I’m looking forward to the draft this year and seeing what direction Sandy goes in. Would have been more interesting though if we had more picks than we actually have.
metsfan4decades
6/1/2011-7:59am at 7:59 am (UTC -4)
So Memorial Day has come and gone and I have to say most of the predictions I read look to be right on the money. Many said 4th place, some said last. Most beat writers and analyst said somewhere between 75-83 wins. Much of that was based on the mindset that at least Beltran and Reyes would be gone mid season, if not a couple more.
What I’ll bet no one bet on was injuries in the magnitude we’ve seen and involving some of the players we’ve seen. I’ll bet all, myself included, would have had Beltran hitting the DL first and one of Young and Cap right behind him. About 1/3 bet on Reyes not staying healthy. I’m willing to bet Wright, Davis and even Dickey were at the bottom of those DL predictions.
So 1/3 through and it is what it is right now. I’m resigned to that for 2011. What really concerns me is the next 2 years. Right now, 2012 doesn’t look much better to me mainly b/c of lack of ST and the thought that Reyes won’t be in a Met uniform. Here’s what I’m looking at right now:
- might need a SS
- will need a RF
- LF is going to be a problem
- probably will need a catcher
- need at least 1 SP for the 5 man rotation, more likely 2
- SP depth needs to be addressed
- might need a closer
It’s going to be interesting to see how this all shakes out.
stickguy
6/1/2011-8:22am at 8:22 am (UTC -4)
other than maybe finding a SS, that is not a particularly large list, or abnormal for an off season I don’t think.
LF just frustrates me. I just hope, since they are stuck with him, Bay somehow figures out how to fix what he screwed up, and starts hitting again. Otherwise, at least 1 more year of him.
SS, of course if they sign Reyes, NP! Otherwise, will be interesting to see if they roll with Tejada, get another young one via trade, or sign an old guy to hold down the fort for a year.
RF, I expect they are going with whichever you guy wins it (kirk or F mart) with maybe a veteran FA brought in for depth
SP, always need to find a couple of those. hopefully at least 1 will be a “real” SP.
catcher, at least a back up.
njstuckintx
6/1/2011-9:02am at 9:02 am (UTC -4)
Agreed on your points stick. SS and SP are going to big the big holes to fill and if they would at least start to chat with Reyes on an extension…
TRS86
6/1/2011-8:41am at 8:41 am (UTC -4)
I don’t think you need all of those things you suggested.
If Reyes leaves then Tejada will be given every chance possible to play the position. They would most likely bring in a veteran to back him up and tutor him. I still think at this point it will be Reyes.
RF as Stick would tell you is 99% gonna be someone inhouse. Either Pagan (If Kirk is ready), Duda, Fmart… at best it’s a veteran stopgap.
LF while we are paying him WAY too much the same can be said for LF. If they ever do decide to dump him or bench him then they have in house options. It’s not like they will go out and try to find a starting LF on the FA market with Bay still there.
Catcher, while the production and defense are not great they are especially set there. Thole of course is under control forever and Paulino is still arby elligible.
While there is no depth at all, unless those minor league guys rise fast, the SR is most likely set. Johan, Pelfrey, Niese, Dickey, Gee is not terrible.
BP, yeah I have no clue as I said below. If it is not Krod then they will most likely go with a reclamation project like Nathan on the cheap.
stickguy
6/1/2011-9:33am at 9:33 am (UTC -4)
one of the reasons it frustrates me so much having Bay as Omar’s “going away present” is that if they Mets have 1 thing in the minors, it is a glut of guys that play corner OF, or are projected to have to end u in LF at some point!
TRS86
6/1/2011-8:36am at 8:36 am (UTC -4)
Rubin’s newest article is exactly why I dislike Rubin’s methods. All it basically is is fearmongering. He tries to show that the Mets can’t afford both Reyes and Wright without going over 120M. That’s just not true.
Yeah that would be 72M among 4 players. That’s a shitload.
However, you look at how many players they have making the minimum and the fact that is not likely to change anytime soon.
RF, will most likely be replaced within 450K.
1B, 450K
2B, 450K
CF, Lets assume Pagan at 5.5M
C, 450K
SR:
Pelfrey, lets assume 5.5M
Niese, 450K
Dickey, 4.75
Gee, 450K
BP:
Obviously KRod determines a lot. I think if it comes down to eating salary to trade Krod to keep from losing Reyes, which do you think they would do? LOL.
This year around 5M besides Krod. I won’t pretend to know names. Hell, who is in our pen right now?
Bench
Paulino 2M
Turner 450K
Pridie 450K
Tejada 450K
Evans 450K
(Yeah, who the hell knows who will be on the bench but fact is it will not cost much)
So based on my primitive math skills adding up all of that gets you 100Mish.
Krod would place them at that 120Mish.
kingman 26
6/1/2011-8:41am at 8:41 am (UTC -4)
Sometimes Rubin writes well-sourced pieces, sometimes he writes fabricated baloney. This is clearly the latter.
Who exactly is this sourced from? Sandy? DePodesta? Ricciardi? Fred or Jeff?
Please.
Rubin has less than zero accountability and this piece is doing precisely what Rubin intends—being read by you and me and MF4D and getting airplay here, when all it deserves is to be ignored and brutally mocked by ESPN’s commenters.
I am sorry to rub old wounds, but the idea that these guys don’t simply make sh*t up on occasion is naive.
I don’t think it was Rubin, but I still would love to know the source for Luis Hernandez starting at 2B. That story was the 2011 Fabrication Champion.
TRS86
6/1/2011-8:43am at 8:43 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, Rubin does a great job covering and reporting on the Mets. It’s his opinion articles that are terrible and designed for fearmongering. Yeah it gets us all to read, but I also think it’s our job here to realize that almost all blogsavy Mets fans read those type of articles so we have a duty to not only laugh at them but prove them flat out wrong.
kingman 26
6/1/2011-8:58am at 8:58 am (UTC -4)
OK, your third sentence does really make some good sense!
TRS—stamping out ignorance on a daily basis!
metsfan4decades
6/1/2011-9:17am at 9:17 am (UTC -4)
This. I agree 100%. I read Rubin regularly simply b/c he’s normally the first to report updates plus he covers a wide variety of facts concerning the Mets.
The rest? Blah. Almost as bad as Heyman with his informative type tweets and posts reporting what he considers new information such as ‘Mets might trade Reyes’. Really, is it me or lately does it seem Heyman has absolutely nothing remotely updated he’s reporting on?
stickguy
6/1/2011-9:40am at 9:40 am (UTC -4)
This team is really, really top heavy. And with the dead wood (cut guys, LT DL), it is pretty much an 80mill team with a 140 mill payroll!
There are what, about 6 guys making more than BB level cump change?
wright
reyes
santana
K Rod
Bay
those 5 are about 80. Ollie + Castillo another 18, so already ~ 100, for 7 guys, only 4 of whom are on the field so far this year!
past those 5, Dickey, Pelf and Pagan make moderate (veteran) money, but still only about 10-12 combined this year.
the rest are in that 1 mill range (more with incentives, like Capuano) or minimum wage, so imminetly replaceable.
TRS86
6/1/2011-9:45am at 9:45 am (UTC -4)
And next year that’s likely to change only in one way. We don’t have to pay Perez and Castillo and Beltran will not be replaced. That’s still plenty of money to sign Reyes and Wright.
Also, don’t you think that if it came down to uh… keep Reyes and Wright / trade Pagan/Pelfrey they would chose the latter? I still say from the beginning trading Reyes has little to do with “can they afford it” and more to do with what can they afford after that as well as how the hell to we get better?
njstuckintx
6/1/2011-9:12am at 9:12 am (UTC -4)
MRNJ – Solid article and a good synopsis.
I would say that for now, we have to go with Ceet’s favorite comment – Not enough plate appearances. It’s tough to judge Alderson on less than a years work. Especially since most of that is plugging up the holes left by the previous (and inept) regime. All in all, we probably won’t see the true fruits of his labor until year 4 (factoring in by then the roster will be completely his construction as well as the draft). The big burden will be Reyes, as how he attacks this will be how he is defined. Did he keep or did he let Jose go… If there is a saving grace for Alderson (but not the Mets) is the financial constraints this team is stuck in, so Alderson may get a semi-pass.
Anyway, I do wish that Sandy had signed a couple 2 year deals instead of all those 1 year deals. There is going to be one heck of a roster turnover next year, which, all in all, might not be a bad thing. He’s really setting this up to be completely stripped out and to become a complete Sandy Team.
PS: Sandy, if you’re reading this, please sign Reyes. And please send 4 tickets for the Phillie series after the AS break.
Dirtysanchez
6/1/2011-9:18am at 9:18 am (UTC -4)
Another ridiculously good post NJ, well done
I like the fact that Sandy isnt willing to put up with garbage(Harrison and Harris aside). I think that has long been missing with this organization.
I think the bigger test will be the Draft and the trade deadline.
stickguy
6/1/2011-9:43am at 9:43 am (UTC -4)
I think they will be gone once the real players (DW and Ike) come back. Assuming they ever do.
metsfan4decades
6/1/2011-9:57am at 9:57 am (UTC -4)
Bite your tongue….
njstuckintx
6/1/2011-10:11am at 10:11 am (UTC -4)
I bet that is the next DL injury that we see. Turner to the 15 DL, Tongue Bite.
TRS86
6/1/2011-9:42am at 9:42 am (UTC -4)
OK I know there are a few salary savoy posters out there like I think I am. Can someone double check my math? I am still pissed that Rubin post an article out there that says the Mets can’t afford Reyes and Wright with a 120M payroll quoting that it’s just not possible. Really? What am I missing? I keep getting 100M with Reyes and Wright no Krod. With Krod you get closer to that 120M. Does anyone think that’s a hard 100M or a hard 120M anyway? I know that 40 man roster is what they base the payroll on but even then it’s most likely under 120M.
njstuckintx
6/1/2011-9:44am at 9:44 am (UTC -4)
All reports on MLBTR state that the Mets have about 20 Mil to spend in the upcoming year. How can they not afford Reyes with that. And that does account for Wright being under contract.
TRS86
6/1/2011-10:00am at 10:00 am (UTC -4)
The 20M is even misleading. That’s assuming they pickup Pelfrey, Pagan, and spend similar to what they did this year in other areas. That’s also assuming 100M payroll which we just don’t know yet. We just basically know that it will not be below it.
njstuckintx
6/1/2011-10:09am at 10:09 am (UTC -4)
This is why I think Pelfrey is a prime candidate to get moved. And possibly Pagan, even though he’s probably more valuable to the Mets at this point than another team.
I am thinking we’ll see the Mets at around 115 mil.
TRS86
6/1/2011-10:10am at 10:10 am (UTC -4)
If you are at 115, then you don’t have to move Pelfrey or Pagan. See below. Also if you trade Pelfrey you still have to replace 200 innings with something and our system sure the hell does not have it.
njstuckintx
6/1/2011-10:12am at 10:12 am (UTC -4)
If they keep Krod, where would that put them?
TRS86
6/1/2011-10:19am at 10:19 am (UTC -4)
Based on what I counted below around 115.
stickguy
6/1/2011-9:48am at 9:48 am (UTC -4)
you have it about right. No way to keep K Rod too and be under the 100mill cap unless you could off load Bay and his salary.
just back into it. 140 now. subtract Beltran, castillo, ollie, reyes (current salary) of ~50. that puts you at ~90. add in 17 for reyes, and you get 107, so round it off for my fudge factors and call it 110.
another 10 for a splurge guy, and a few raises, and you can easily keep the entire team (sans Beltran) for 120, including K rod and Reyes.
starts dropping quick if Rod, Pagan, Pelf get moved out.
TRS86
6/1/2011-10:09am at 10:09 am (UTC -4)
You can’t really work backwards. You have to work forwards. Count Wright, Johan, Bay, and the rest of the guaranteed contracts. 66.8 including Krod’s option which I count towards this year’s payroll more than next. It’s already spent. Next year’s payroll will either include Krod at 14M or not.
It’s the rest of his math that gets really fuzzy.
Lets say 64+17 for Reyes. That’s 81M. Then factor in Pelfrey and Pagan that’s 91M for 8 players. Now factor in 1b, 2b, RF at league minimum that adds around 1.5M. Next SR, factor in Niese, Gee. 1M.
Total so far 93.5 for 13 players.
You still need a BP. W/O Krod most likely around 4M. 97.5
You still need a bench, including Paulino around 3M. 100.5
So factoring all that in you get a payroll around 100M.
With Krod it goes up to around 115.
metsfan4decades
6/1/2011-10:20am at 10:20 am (UTC -4)
Does those payroll estimates include what they’re now paying for Bonilla and Saberhagen? Does it include all on the 40 man roster?
I’ll confess to not having a clue what constitutes a ML payroll.
TRS86
6/1/2011-10:24am at 10:24 am (UTC -4)
I did not include BoBo and Sabes because one they are so trivial it does not really make much difference and 2 I really don’t know how much they are paying, when they are paying it, and if it even counts towards the luxury tax.
Now as for the 40 man, I did not include it. Again for similar reasons. When the beat writers are bashing the Mets they never use the 40 man salary to report the Mets total budget so I would assume they are not now. Also, it’s not as easy to just throw numbers out there. Those 15 players do not even make MLB minimum and it’s prorated based on who is on the 25 man and how long… Honestly I have no idea if you get paid more for being on the 40 man. Thus lets assume that you are paying .25 for each that would get you another 3-5M tops.
metsfan4decades
6/1/2011-10:40am at 10:40 am (UTC -4)
O.K. thanks.
Mr North Jersey
6/1/2011-11:58am at 11:58 am (UTC -4)
2012 payroll commitments
$24.0M – Santana
$16.0M – Bay
$15.0M – Wright
$17.0M – Reyes
$72.0M – Total (60.0% of est $120M Payroll)
$17.5M – KRod
$89.5M – Updated Total (74.6% of est $120M Payroll)
2011 payroll commitments
$22.5M – Santana
$16.0M – Bay
$11.5M – Wright
$11.0M – Reyes
$61.0M – Total (43.6% of est $140M Payroll)
$11.5M – KRod
$72.5M – Updated Total (51.8% of est $140M Payroll)
wannybackstra
6/1/2011-1:28pm at 1:28 pm (UTC -4)
BA/AVG/SLG/OPS
Player A : .242/.326/325/.651 Salary — $16m
Player B: .242/.303/.338/.640 Salary — $1.85M
Player C: .219 /.261/.390/.652 Salary — $3.25m
Player D: 250 /312/.354/.666 Salary — $2m
Player E: 237/.294/.372/.666 Salary — $2m
Player F: 251/.284/.384/.668 Salary — $19m
Player A is Jason Bay. B is Ronny Cedeno. C is Rod Barajas. D is Jerry Hairston, Jr. (Scott is right in this range too). E is Brad Hawpe (what happened to this guy?)
Jason Bay thanks god for Player F, Carlos Lee, for making him look like he’s market rate.
stickguy
6/1/2011-1:33pm at 1:33 pm (UTC -4)
what a bunch of crap.
Lee has the triple whammy though. Horrid numbers, highest payroll, and he is a statue in the field. Truly brings nothing to the table.
kingman 26
6/1/2011-1:51pm at 1:51 pm (UTC -4)
His being ridiculously overweight doesn’t help either. At least Bay’s in shape.
metsfan4decades
6/1/2011-2:19pm at 2:19 pm (UTC -4)
I’m not sure about players B-E but at least Bay is not a liability in LF. IMO, he’s actually a tad better than advertised defensively.
Carlos Lee? Yeah, I thought he was horrible in LF but dang when we played them a couple of weeks ago he kept making plays out there I thought he had no chance of getting to. More ‘typical type luck’ for our NY Mets. LOL.
stickguy
6/1/2011-2:28pm at 2:28 pm (UTC -4)
isn’t that why we ended up with Willie Harris?
metsfan4decades
6/1/2011-3:45pm at 3:45 pm (UTC -4)
Ha! Beats me why we ended up with WIllie Harris.
If I had to pick one signing off season I did not like at all, it would be the Harris signing. Didn’t like it from day one.
wannybackstra
6/1/2011-3:56pm at 3:56 pm (UTC -4)
The sight of him in tonight’s lineup makes me feel as sick as the sight of Bobby Parnell in a close game.
saltygary
6/1/2011-4:02pm at 4:02 pm (UTC -4)
Tonight’s lineup is putrid.
wannybackstra
6/1/2011-4:04pm at 4:04 pm (UTC -4)
What, you don’t like Ronny Paulino in the 6th spot?
saltygary
6/1/2011-4:13pm at 4:13 pm (UTC -4)
I’m thinking Hot Rod Barajas would be an improvement. If he records no errors that will be a positive.
Mr North Jersey
6/1/2011-4:16pm at 4:16 pm (UTC -4)
2011 payroll commitments
$22.5M – Santana
$16.0M – Bay
$11.5M – Wright
$19.3M – Beltran
$11.0M – Reyes
$11.5M – KRod
$12.0M – Perez
$6.25M – Castillo
$110.05M – Total (78.6% of est $140M Payroll tied up in 8 players)
$29.96M – ( 21.4% of est $140M Payroll for the remaining 17 players.)
Does that look about right? Am I calculating something wrong?
stickguy
6/1/2011-4:51pm at 4:51 pm (UTC -4)
seems reasonable. and at least 3 of them drop off, so the team won’t be quite as top heavy I guess. Though Wright gets a raise (thought he made more this year), and if Reyes stays, he will obviously be making more!
Mr North Jersey
6/1/2011-4:58pm at 4:58 pm (UTC -4)
In this scenario it seems a bit top heavy. Of course that is if they indeed sign Reyes and KRod option vests.
2012 payroll commitments
$24.0M – Santana
$16.0M – Bay
$15.0M – Wright
$17.0M – Reyes
$72.0M – Total (60.0% of est $120M Payroll)
$17.5M – KRod
$89.5M – Updated Total (74.6% of est $120M Payroll)
stickguy
6/1/2011-6:05pm at 6:05 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t care what the spend, as long as they actually put a good team on the field and win some games!
saltygary
6/1/2011-5:00pm at 5:00 pm (UTC -4)
This is what I currently have. Have not updated it in a couple weeks…
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgoabF6Dl2AhdEV4Zk4yb285R3htN2t2VGE5RGt6b0E&hl=en_US&authkey=CM7O9ugK