It’s Drafty, They Call It Rule IV
It’s Drafty, New Players & More
It’s Drafty, Let’s Cut Thru the Hype
It’s Drafty, It’s Just My Type
Ok – enough paraphrasing the Beastie Boys (‘She’s Crafty’ for those of you who do not respect your elders). As much as we all love speculation, and I’m sure you all don’t really care about my mock draft, let’s just recap what the Mets might be looking for a few hours from now when the first round of the MLB Draft kicks off.
Baseball America Executive Editor Jim Callis believes the Mets will be targeting the bevy of college arms, hoping that one of the better ones drops to them at #13. This would mean Taylor Jungmann from Texas, Sonny Gray from Vanderbilt, Matt Barnes from UCONN, or Jed Bradely form Georgia Tech. Other experts (Keith Law of ESPN and Jonathon Mayo from MLB.com) tend to agree. The question is, what happens if those arms are gone? – and they very well may be.
Callis believes they will turn to a college bat, like LSU outfielder Mikie Mahtook (“never too old to be called Mikie” says Callis), or UCONN’s George Springer. When they come up again to pick at #44, they will then try to angle in on a high school arm (such as Oakland righty Joe Ross or OK righty Michael Fullmer).
Mayo and Law seem to think if the college arms are gone at #13, they will move quickly on a premium high school pitcher, such as Tyler Guererri from Columbia, SC.
Overall, with the state of the franchise, Sandy will likely look for someone with polish – close to major league ready – rather than take a project with high upside, who might take a while more to develop.
Enjoy!
48 comments
Dirtysanchez
6/6/2011-9:36am at 9:36 am (UTC -4)
Do you think the Mets will go the Ike davis route and get college close to ML ready players?
Will they be filling a potential need in their farm system and for the future or they will take the “best talent available regardless of position?
Mets need a big bat in the minors imo…anybody fit that mold as a potential heavy hitter?
rustyjr
6/6/2011-9:49am at 9:49 am (UTC -4)
That’s what I’ve been hearing – Sandy needs to get players here that can get to the majors quick – so expect a collegic player
stickguy
6/6/2011-9:54am at 9:54 am (UTC -4)
I don’t know. I hope they go with the best available, and that seems to fit the MO of the new FO team.
but if there is a toss up between 2 guys, age might be the tie breaker!
Doubt they reach for need, but likely they take some catchers early on if the talent warrents it.
I guess a pitcher in the first round? but maybe a tasty bat falls to them.
saltygary
6/6/2011-10:00am at 10:00 am (UTC -4)
My gut tells me they would go for the best available player and their preference is a college pitcher in the first round. Most HS kids go a little later and pitching depth is what they need.
This is Law’s comments as of a couple days ago “The club’s new mandate is to take pitching. Jungmann would be the choice over Guerrieri if he’s available; Jed Bradley is another option. Preferred bats are still Levi Michael, Mahtook and Baez.”
Last week Law said they were high on SS Levi Michael but pitching will probably take preference.
kistics
6/6/2011-12:59pm at 12:59 pm (UTC -4)
I think they’ll draft based on what they feel fits well with the team and ballpark. I would assume they will draft pitchers, speedsters and gap hitters.
saltygary
6/6/2011-10:02am at 10:02 am (UTC -4)
Also don’t forget about the trades that will happen. IF they come away with a strong draft and make some moves to get some decent prospects, the team can potentially have a very strong group making its way up over the next 2 years.
The team will not be fixed for next year so I would rather them take the best available and get the teams foundation strong again.
stickguy
6/6/2011-10:17am at 10:17 am (UTC -4)
even the guys considered polished college players so closer to the majors don’t tend to move that fast (so none of them are likely to help in 2012). Ike took 2+ years including draft year.
saltygary
6/6/2011-10:05am at 10:05 am (UTC -4)
Law on Taylor Guerrieri (for you non-ESPN insiders) that he’s predicting the Mets will get at this point:
Taylor Guerrieri
RHP | Spring Valley High School
Weight: 180 lbs.
Height: 6-3
Guerrieri is one of the top prep arms in this year’s draft, showing huge velocity with a knockout curveball and a good frame. I’ve had scouts tell me it’s the best raw stuff of any high school pitcher in this draft, sitting 92-97 in most outings with a knockout breaking ball and a body to match.
Guerrieri’s fastball is heavy, even when I saw him at just 90-94 working on short rest, and the curve has tight rotation and a well-defined break, but his command of the two pitches isn’t there yet.
He can struggle with his landing point and needs to get that front foot down consistently toward the plate. Otherwise his delivery is very easy, with a moderate stride, not much hip rotation or torque, smooth arm action with early pronation, and just generally low effort from start to finish.
He’ll need to throw more quality strikes and develop a consistent third pitch, but the arm strength and potential for a plus breaking ball is very enticing.
metsfan4decades
6/6/2011-10:23am at 10:23 am (UTC -4)
Nice.
I’ll bet at #13 though, whoever they’re targeting might be gone.
stickguy
6/6/2011-10:26am at 10:26 am (UTC -4)
seems to be a pretty strong draft though (from reports). Just from reading all the projections, there are at least 13 guys you could make a case for being in the top 5, so smoeone good has to be there at 13. Just make a list of your top 13 in order, and take whichever one is the highest that has not been crossed off yet when it is your turn.
I think it will be more interesting to see what happens when they get to their 2nd pick (#44).
metsfan4decades
6/6/2011-10:24am at 10:24 am (UTC -4)
Does anyone know if MLB will do live tracking of this online like they did last year? I really enjoyed that last year. Would be nice to tune in tonight, especially since there is no game.
stickguy
6/6/2011-10:28am at 10:28 am (UTC -4)
have to figure they will. ESPN I think will have a list going, as will mlb.com
Dirtysanchez
6/6/2011-11:03am at 11:03 am (UTC -4)
I believe mlb network will have live coverage like last year
Prismo
6/6/2011-12:34pm at 12:34 pm (UTC -4)
Yes, it will be on mlb.com – live coverage, as in a video feed (it sounds like).
oleosmirf
6/6/2011-12:12pm at 12:12 pm (UTC -4)
word on the street is if Taylor Jungmann is available at 13, the Mets will take him.
I expect the Mets to take a college arm at 13 and go over slot for the best HS arm at 44…
kistics
6/6/2011-12:54pm at 12:54 pm (UTC -4)
Does anyone know whatever happened to the ’09 draft class? Matz was 2nd round pick and there are others, but where are they now? Are they just lost?
kistics
6/6/2011-1:00pm at 1:00 pm (UTC -4)
And whatever happened to Ratliff? Is he injured?
wannybackstra
6/6/2011-1:52pm at 1:52 pm (UTC -4)
http://espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/post/_/id/185/the-gms-role-in-the-draft
interesting article on the role of the gm during the draft. sounds like this is the depo show (i think the draft is his but i forget if he and ricciardi share this responsibility in this odd front office structure).
wannybackstra
6/6/2011-1:59pm at 1:59 pm (UTC -4)
keith law now has the mets selecting lakers reserve forward matt barnes at #13.
my opinion on the draft is to take the guy with the best and most likely chance to be a star at 13. if that means taking guerrieri at of HS because of his upside, or the athletic outfielder george springer or a dominant college pitcher like jungmann so be it. I’m not interested in low ceiling but likely to reach the majors guys in the first round and i’m not interested in all tools, no baseball ability either in the first round. I like a balance between the two criteria but must with the must have star potential.
saltygary
6/6/2011-2:02pm at 2:02 pm (UTC -4)
Law’s write up on Barnes:
Matt Barnes
RHP | Connecticut
Weight: 203 lbs.
Height: 6-3
Summary :
Barnes had a chance to establish himself as a top-10 or top-5 pick coming off an impressive summer with Team USA, but command problems have pushed him below a half-dozen other college arms who’ve come out throwing more and better strikes.
Barnes has a plus fastball at 93-95 and holds his velocity pretty well, mixing in an occasional low-90s two-seamer. His curveball is the eye-opener, 75-78 with depth and two-plane break, but he’s been throwing a well below-average slider this spring, 79-81, flat and hittable.
Barnes doesn’t command the fastball and tends to miss up with the pitch, the worst place to leave your fastball. He also doesn’t repeat his delivery well, with many aspects varying from pitch to pitch — his stride length (usually moderate, occasionally long), his movement off the mound (he’s usually drifting off as he starts, but occasionally stays over it longer), and the timing of his elbow pronation. In that last area he can let his pitching elbow drift up fairly high, putting some stress on his shoulder and lengthening his arm action more.
Barnes’ combination of size, velocity, and a strong second offering all make him a likely top-20 pick, but those delivery and command issues will probably steer a few teams up top in another direction.
He thinks Jungmann will be picked ahead of the Mets.
saltygary
6/6/2011-2:06pm at 2:06 pm (UTC -4)
Based on this analysis I would hope they take a pass on this guy. An inconsistent pitcher does not sound like a guy that Sandy wants.
Law did 4 mocks in the third one from a couple days ago he had the Mets taking a HS’er Taylor Guerrieri. He now has that kid dropped to 22nd.
wannybackstra
6/6/2011-2:08pm at 2:08 pm (UTC -4)
i’ve never seen any of these guys but this report does not excite me. i’m hoping someone slips for signability concerns and then we see if the mets are true to their word re: spending in the draft.
on the flipside, i think a lot of these same things were written about matt harvey and his career is off to a good start.
saltygary
6/6/2011-2:10pm at 2:10 pm (UTC -4)
Yea everyone was down on the Harvey signing and so far so good.
Peter Duffy
6/6/2011-2:06pm at 2:06 pm (UTC -4)
BA says it’s Mahtook
saltygary
6/6/2011-2:07pm at 2:07 pm (UTC -4)
Mikie Mahtook
OF | Louisiana State University
Weight: 192 lbs.
Height: 6-1
Summary :
Mahtook entered the year as a safe, high-probability college bat who could play up the middle and would hit enough to be an everyday guy. But in a year when new BBCOR bats have power numbers down all over the country he’s ratcheted up his own power output, establishing himself as a five-tool player with some star potential.
He’s a plus runner with an above-average arm whose reads in center have improved since he first got to LSU; I think he stays at the position but he has the arm and bat to play in right. As a hitter, he gets his weight down on his front foot a little late, but otherwise this is how you draw it up — quick hands, great hip rotation, good extension through, all with solid plate discipline. And he’s a plus-makeup kid who plays all-out, all the time. He’s a top-20 pick for sure with an outside chance to crack the top 10.
saltygary
6/6/2011-2:08pm at 2:08 pm (UTC -4)
This is what Law said a couple days ago:
The club’s new mandate is to take pitching. Jungmann would be the choice over Guerrieri if he’s available; Jed Bradley is another option. Preferred bats are still Levi Michael, Mahtook and Baez.”
In the end no one will be right but it’s still fun to try and predict.
wannybackstra
6/6/2011-3:15pm at 3:15 pm (UTC -4)
I’m not impressed with the reports on jed bradley either. sounds as if he’s a fastball changeup guy only.
wannybackstra
6/6/2011-2:12pm at 2:12 pm (UTC -4)
Does BA have Springer going before Mahtook?
It sounds like Springer is the 5 tool star while Mahtook might be the better baseball player.
This report seems more acceptable to me than the Barnes report.
Jungmann, who Law had projected as a possibility for the Mets, seems a good pick with his dominance at a legit NCAA team.
wannybackstra
6/6/2011-2:32pm at 2:32 pm (UTC -4)
Jon (NYC)
Would getting Matt Barnes at 13 be something of a best case scenario for the Mets? Is it fair to see that Barnes has a higher ceiling than Jungmann but Jungmann has higher probability?
Klaw
(2:30 PM)
Yes. Still hearing Barnes maybe at 10 or 11 and I wouldn’t rule out 8, but I feel like he gets to 13.
kingman 26
6/6/2011-2:37pm at 2:37 pm (UTC -4)
Ah, love the Beasties reference!
And damn, I am not THAT old—I can call two of them my elders!
njstuckintx
6/6/2011-2:48pm at 2:48 pm (UTC -4)
I thought Check Your Head was their best album, but that’s just me. Wasn’t ground breaking as their earlier stuff, but I could listen to that album for hours on end.
kingman 26
6/6/2011-3:06pm at 3:06 pm (UTC -4)
That has ALWAYS been my favorite!
Released when I lived in Seattle in the middle of the Grunge explosion, that record’s style, tone, and great release timing totally put the Beasties right in the middle of the alternative scene, as well as the rap and rock scenes.
That, Nirvana, Alice in Chains, and Cypress Hill were in my CD player nonstop that year.
wannybackstra
6/6/2011-3:08pm at 3:08 pm (UTC -4)
that sounds like my ipod today (and my cd player then)
kingman 26
6/6/2011-5:18pm at 5:18 pm (UTC -4)
Well, I always did agree with you about roughly 99% of what we say on here!
njstuckintx
6/6/2011-4:03pm at 4:03 pm (UTC -4)
Built to Spill, Monster Magnet, Smashin Pumpkins, Soundgarden (and the most awesome Temple of the Dog album), Beck, and Helmet… Those were the days.
Now, can someone explain to me why Pearl Jam could have the most amazing first album and suck from then on out? Such a disappointment.
njstuckintx
6/6/2011-5:00pm at 5:00 pm (UTC -4)
Would Pearl Jam be the Gregg Jefferies of bands?
kingman 26
6/6/2011-5:06pm at 5:06 pm (UTC -4)
I would have to go NFL and say Pearl Jam would be the Jeff George of bands.
Definitely a pro, good stats overall which can fool the masses and casual fans, but never reached early promise, not really liked by their peers or real fans, and overall much more flash than substance.
Or maybe the Bruce Willis of bands.
kingman 26
6/6/2011-5:03pm at 5:03 pm (UTC -4)
Funny, I knew Built to Spill very well in Doug’s previous incarnation The Treepeople; opened for them twice. Great, great memories!
Temple of the Dog was great and Eddie’s highlight to me.
Not everyone knows today, but at their beginnings, Pearl Jam was laughed at in Seattle. Kurt Cobain used to make fun of them in print all the time; they were viewed as the pop sellouts while Nirvana and Soundgarden were the kings. Alice in Chains were first seen as glam metal but quickly won everyone over. I just think Pearl Jam is a totally contrived combo of Nirvana (without the alt/grunge), Alice in Chains (without the balls), Mudhoney (without the punk), and Screaming Trees (without the greatness).
They had maybe some greatness in them for that first album (what was left over from the far better Mother Love Bone after Andy Wood died; Chris Cornell was roomates with him, that’s what made Temple of the Dog happen) but after that they were formulaic and out to sell, sell, sell.
Pearl Jam certainly won the longevity battle, but in 1992-1993 they were laughed at by much of the then-Seattle music scene.
And maybe you guys do or do not know, but Stone and Jeff from Pearl Jam were in THE seminal Seattle band, Green River with Mark Arm and Steve Turner from Mudhoney in the mid-1980s. They split because Mark Arm wanted to be punk and Stone and Jeff were determined to become rock stars at all costs. If Andy Wood had never died, there would have been no Temple of the Dog and no Pearl Jam.
And Andy Wood could have made more than one record and taken his rightful place with Kurt, Layne Staley, Chris Cornell, and Mark Lanegan as the greatest singers of the Grunge era.
njstuckintx
6/6/2011-5:12pm at 5:12 pm (UTC -4)
Screaming Trees… Ah, Mr. Lanagan. I’m glad he’s recording again, though I wish he would do more with QOTSA, as that is/was a solid combo, even if it was for just a song or two on their albums.
And agreed, Andy did have a solid voice.
kingman 26
6/6/2011-5:13pm at 5:13 pm (UTC -4)
I still vote for Nearly Lost You as the 2nd best song of the Grunge era after Smells Like Teen Spirit. Love that song!
wannybackstra
6/6/2011-6:17pm at 6:17 pm (UTC -4)
I recently listened to Mother Love Bone for the first time in several years. Of course, there’s no denying the greatness of Stardog Champion and Chloe, etc. but the sound of their stuff was very unlike the era it spawned. Wood’s sound very much could have fit in with the metal bands of the 80s and the music/sound wasn’t as “grungy” as it was stadium/anthem sounding.
Of course, this makes perfect sense given its place in time as the bridge between the metal of the 80s and 90s (which is really what the “grunge” era was — a transformation from metal to a more sophisticated and darker hard rock). I wonder if it wasn’t his passing that inspired the changing sound — Wood was clearly a leader in the Seattle scene, musically and in friendship — moreso than his actual musical influence.
By the way, like every college kid at the time I was a big Pearl Jam fan. I stopped collecting the albums after Vitalogy (though I have subsequently acquired them all out of curiosity). They were an excellent live band when Eddie controlled his drinking. Interestingly, the best thing to come from Pearl Jam (besides Temple which is among the great rock albums of all time) is probably Eddie’s soundtrack for Into the Wild. Love it.
wannybackstra
6/6/2011-6:27pm at 6:27 pm (UTC -4)
By the way, my favorite album of the 2000s BY FAR is Chris Cornell’s live solo acoustic performance from Sweden. He does a little Audioslave, Temple and Soundgarden with a couple of other covers (including a brilliant cover of Billie Jean which appears on one of his solo albums too).
kingman 26
6/6/2011-6:45pm at 6:45 pm (UTC -4)
Interesting and really insightful comments Wanny.
Before the explosion that the release of Nevermind instantly created in late 1991, the Seattle sound really had four elements–the Nirvana style (basically classic rock mixed with early REM filtered through punk), the Mudhoney style (purer punk), the Mother Love Bone/early Alice in Chains/early Soundgarden style (more metally, with glam leanings), and the Melvins style (slower and dirgier). Once bands started to make it big, almost everyone moved more toward more accessible sounds. Candlebox being the most vile and hated example.
I would argue that the grungy/glam part of Mother Love Bone was Andy Wood, and the stadium/anthem part was Gossard/Ament, who were always laser-focused on becoming precisely what they became.
I played shows with Andy’s brothers (they had a band called Fire Ants) and thought that Andy’s death definitely did change things for the guys who later became big stars—he was the first of many, many deaths—not just Cobain; lots of smaller musicians unknown outside of the northwest died of heroin in the next few years. Heroin was easier to find than pot in Seattle at that time. It was crazy. But I think it made the bands who were soon to become huge all more careful and professional and more businesslike; thinking it could end at any time.
Funny Eddie story—when Temple of the Dog came out, I went to a party where they all were and they were signing cassettes for everyone, and Eddie Vedder was SO quiet and shy–he literally signed every one on the inside part of the cassette sleeve—he would not sign right on the front next to Cornell/Ament/Cameron!
And of all of those bands, Soundgarden was always the one which was the most focused, mature, and serious.
kingman 26
6/6/2011-6:50pm at 6:50 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, that is a great CD.
Chris Cornell always was the best overall singer. It’s funny Wanny—in about 1991-1992 there were SOOOOO many great bands in Seattle. And for the most part, the few which made it big really were the handful which clearly had the very best singers/frontmen.
Cornell, Cobain, Staley, Wood, Vedder, and Lanegan really were the absolute best of the dozens and dozens of great bands in the northwest in the early 1990s.
I saw Soundgarden once at a small club at an unannounced show right before they left on the Badmotorfinger tour. They were trying things out, and a club which held 300 must have had 600. Cornell’s voice though part of their arena sound system in a pretty small club seriously was about the most amazing thing I have ever heard. He sounded like he was ready for any arena on the planet. And like Staley and Cobain, he’s a pretty small, thin guy!
wannybackstra
6/6/2011-10:49pm at 10:49 pm (UTC -4)
soundgarden opening for GnR in MSG for the Use Your Illusion tour almost got booed out of the building.
Glad to see Soundgarden still productive members of society while Axl rots (and I’m a GnR fanatic!)
Singels soundtrack… what a collection of great stuff but of Cornell especially. He”ll never get the notoriety he deserves but that’s a guy with serious pipes.
kingman 26
6/6/2011-11:08pm at 11:08 pm (UTC -4)
Ha! Yeah, I loved Guns too, but has anything ever sunk as fast as Axl’s Chinese Democracy??
The Singles soundtrack is simply amazing as a sampler from those days.
And Wanny, that movie is 100% SO right on the money. I remember them filming it, I saw shows in the auto garage where Alice in Chains played, and that movie IS what the music/singles scene was in Seattle in the early-to-mid 1990s.
When Guns played I think the Kingdome around 1992, Courtney Love was backstage mouthing off and Axl threatened to kick Kurt Cobain’s ass if he didn’t “shut his b*tch up.”
wannybackstra
6/6/2011-11:12pm at 11:12 pm (UTC -4)
maybe axl is likable afterall.
did you ever catch a band called unified theory? it was the blind melon survivors with a new singer and dave krusen on drums.
kingman 26
6/6/2011-11:25pm at 11:25 pm (UTC -4)
HAHA!
Yeah, Cobain was a little guy who was terrorized by jocks in high school, and from what I heard, was terrified of Axl and Guns. I saw Hole and played a show with them in the mid-90s before Courtney was anything, and they really were a very good band before she became a psycho.
Never saw Unified Theory, but did like their EP.
I think they broke up before they really had a chance, as I remember it.