So yeah, we are at it again. Back in the fall we added a few new members to our team. We added a TRDM Minor Leagues as well as SaberMETrics. As you have noticed the TRDMML has been great, keeping us up to date on all thing in the Mets system with daily reports from the farm.
The SaberMetrics side? Not so much. I am sure there are many reasons for this. One, if you have not been on this side of the screen before, it’s hard to come up with quality articles all the time. Two, sabermetrics are still so damn controversial. It takes a tough skin to put your hard work out there to have it picked apart by lovers and haters of the stats alike. Three, it’s just damn time consuming.
However, I do feel it is something that the readers here want. We have a very intelligent group of reader that I think like to look at stats in a way that could answer questions. Such as why the hell does Jason Bay suck?
Thus I am appealing again to any Mets fan that is also saber minded. If you have a desire to get your message out to 1,000′s of readers each time, this is the place for you.
Respond here in the comment section and I will shoot you an email to give you more information.
30 comments
Kirk_C
6/8/2011-1:33pm at 1:33 pm (UTC -4)
I’d like to contribute to TRDM.
chetchy253
6/8/2011-1:39pm at 1:39 pm (UTC -4)
I could be interested
TRS86
6/8/2011-1:51pm at 1:51 pm (UTC -4)
Thanks guys, there was some confusion on this last time so I want to make sure you know this is an UNPAID position.
If you are still interested I will email you soon with some guidelines.
Kirk_C
6/8/2011-1:54pm at 1:54 pm (UTC -4)
I’m still interested.
TRS86
6/8/2011-1:57pm at 1:57 pm (UTC -4)
Sent you an email.
akeiser88
6/8/2011-2:07pm at 2:07 pm (UTC -4)
I am interested too
Leffty
6/8/2011-4:58pm at 4:58 pm (UTC -4)
I’m interested as well
hazmet
6/8/2011-7:06pm at 7:06 pm (UTC -4)
Like we need Sabermetrics to tell us why Bay sucks.
stickguy
6/8/2011-7:13pm at 7:13 pm (UTC -4)
the final exam should be go to MMO, and try to convert one of the troglodytes over their to the saber faith.
TRS86
6/8/2011-7:29pm at 7:29 pm (UTC -4)
OK, you tell me then. And please not some crap like he’s standing too far away from the plate or his roids have ran out.
stickguy
6/8/2011-7:58pm at 7:58 pm (UTC -4)
he is particularly bad with the N-EXg stat this year.
that stands for “not expected to hit like my granny”.
seriously though, the one stat I am curious about is his BABIP. Certainly I expect it to be shockingly low (hard not to be when you are hitting .215!), but sadly anecdotal evidence suggests it is because he hits nothing but weak grounders and soft pop ups and fly balls.
kingman 26
6/8/2011-7:59pm at 7:59 pm (UTC -4)
“And please not some crap like he’s standing too far away from the plate or his roids have ran out.”
Well Chief, these are the only two reasonable explanations I have seen.
You are aware that a huge number of players used PEDs the last 15 years, right??
oleosmirf
6/8/2011-8:12pm at 8:12 pm (UTC -4)
then how did he pass the steroid tests when he was this the Sawks???
stickguy
6/8/2011-8:36pm at 8:36 pm (UTC -4)
I could see if he just lost some bulk and his fly balls not die at the warning track.
but not sure how it explains a complete and total destroying of his batting stance, mechanics and approach.
I would blame Citi (and DWs 2009) for getting into his head as much as suspecting him of roids.
But, don’t need sabers to see his horrific slugging%. that pretty much says it all.
TRS86
6/8/2011-8:45pm at 8:45 pm (UTC -4)
Steroids do not make you hit fly balls. Again, I think we need to be careful accusing someone of roids when we have absolutely no proof or even reason other than stats for suspicion. Seems like questioning his character is a norm for you.
kingman 26
6/8/2011-9:11pm at 9:11 pm (UTC -4)
How the hell can we blame Citi Field when he hit much better at home than away last year and much better at home than away this year?
Does this make a microscopic shred of sense?
Not sure if using PEDs makes someone evil. It is baseball; a hugely competitive sport where one can make millions. This contract sets Bay and the next many generations of his family set for life.
Does using PEDs make him have a terrible character?
I think not.
Think of what is at stake.
TRS, I know you like to compare real life and these guys’ lives, but there’s no comparison.
Jason Bay, his kids, his grandkids and several more generations are now set and never have to worry about any financial or material issues ever.
Is a few years of PED usage worth it if it provides all of this?
For many, many players yes.
And it is hardly like committing violent crime or anything. It is a victimless crime.
TRS86
6/8/2011-9:21pm at 9:21 pm (UTC -4)
Yet still steroids does not make a player hit the ball into the ground.
And yes using steroids IS cheating and DOES question your character.
kingman 26
6/8/2011-9:36pm at 9:36 pm (UTC -4)
Well, of course we can go around on this forever, but I would say that stopping steroid use surely can affect different players in very different ways.
And sure, it was cheating, but I am just suggesting that it is not exactly serious crime. This is baseball, it is not like cheating on your wife or cheating on the SATs or committing a serious or a violent crime.
And again, there is SO much at stake.
Bay’s one Omar contract sets up him and his family literally maybe even forever.
TRS86
6/8/2011-10:06pm at 10:06 pm (UTC -4)
So how long would you propose that Bay had been on roids? His entire career? Just in Boston? Again, he was a power hitter from the time he was in the minors through last year.
kingman 26
6/8/2011-10:32pm at 10:32 pm (UTC -4)
Well, in the minors he hit 14, 17, and 20 HR, and 24, 21, and 11 doubles. Not exactly a power hitter.
He’s 32, and four of the five years from 2005–2009 are the only time in pro ball he had the 2B and HR he did, and from the second he joined the Mets, his offense fell off the edge of the world.
Again, just speculation, but it sure would explain everything.
And even if he DID use, he clearly quit the second he signed the Met deal, perhaps because he DOES have character, and just used long enough to establish himself as a star and get that one huge deal.
Few players fall off the edge like this. For Uggla, it’s 1/3 of one year. Not this year AND last year.
TRS86
6/8/2011-10:41pm at 10:41 pm (UTC -4)
Those 20 HR in AAA in 2003 were in 373 PA. That would have been close to 40 in a full season. Come on. Jason Bay has always been regarded as a power hitter, now we are saying he has been on roids most of his career.
hazmet
6/8/2011-9:13pm at 9:13 pm (UTC -4)
Maybe he’s got postpartum depression after the birth of his child?
or
Maybe he’s an about to be 33 year old outfielder who’s played in hitter’s parks in Boston and Pittsburgh and his skills are declining commensurate with his age and the big dimensions of Citifield are accentuating his decline.
or
Maybe he forgot how to hit after he was concussed.
or
Maybe he’s channeling his inner Ed Whitson and can’t play in NY
or
Maybe his hands are still “lightning fast” through the hitting zone according to Terry but either the rib injury earlier this year or lower body is breaking down, aka Boston reason for not signing him being knee concerns, is keeping him from rotating and his hands are outracing his body pivot and he’s rolling everything over to 3rd for that reason. But this might actually make more sense than standing too far away from the plate.
In any case I don’t believve the answer to Jason Bay resides in Sabermetrics
TRS86
6/8/2011-9:26pm at 9:26 pm (UTC -4)
Don’t think of Boston as some genius. They were offering 3 at basically the same money.
kingman 26
6/8/2011-9:37pm at 9:37 pm (UTC -4)
But after Omar’s four year offer was known? Kind of like their offer to Pedro?
Non-offer offers they knew would never be accepted.
TRS86
6/8/2011-10:07pm at 10:07 pm (UTC -4)
Actually they had already offered him during the season right?
kingman 26
6/8/2011-10:27pm at 10:27 pm (UTC -4)
I honestly do not know. Just seems to me they did not want him or Pedro back and that’s why they offered 3 years.
Kirk_C
6/8/2011-9:57pm at 9:57 pm (UTC -4)
Maybe the answer to fixing Jason Bay doesn’t reside in Sabermetrics. However it could be a way of possibly deciphering the difference between a decline, a bad approach or just simply bad luck.
TRS86
6/8/2011-10:07pm at 10:07 pm (UTC -4)
Yup, to me I am very interested in if it is decline or bad approach. Welcome aboard Kirk.
Kirk_C
6/8/2011-10:25pm at 10:25 pm (UTC -4)
Thanks. I don’t think it’s a decline. Surely at his age his production should see some decline, but not like this. This seems to have happened over night. I think it could be a perfect storm of age, bad ballpark (esp. for RH), loss of confidence and some bad luck.
As I type this Bay strikes out with runners on the corners.
Thankfully Ronny Paulino made it all better.
Spacegrass
6/9/2011-9:58am at 9:58 am (UTC -4)
A couple of things seem to be contributing to his startling decline. First of all this year his ground ball % is the highest it’s ever been, and accordingly his line drive % and fly ball % are as low as they have ever been. Additionally, his home run per fly ball % is drastically low, less than 1/2 of his previously low mark. Rightly or wrongly Citi Field is definitely in his head. Like contributing to this is are his career highs in chasing pitches out of the strike zone and making contact with the bad pitches. Unless you are Vlad Guerrero you are not going to put up huge power numbers swinging at junk. Thanks to his free-swinging ways, Bay is seeing a career low percentage of pitches in the strike zone this year. Until he is able to lay of the slop and square up some fat pitches in the zone, his troubles are likely to continue.