This article was sent to us in our search for a new saber department, the authors name is Kirk and I think you will be seeing a lot of him in the near future.
Although these days it’s difficult to stomach Jason Bay’s stat line, I chugged some Pepto and decided to take a closer look.
While it’s easy to just blame Citi Field, and maybe that is part of the problem, there are some concrete reasons for his lack of production.
The first thing that sticks out to me is his BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play). So far in 2011 Bay has managed just a .270 BABIP, compared to his career mark of .325. That’s a really big drop. If you were to stop there you could simply write-off Bay’s struggles as bad luck. However, as I dig deeper I realize that isn’t the case.
The next stat that sticks out to me is his LD% (Line Drive Percentage). For his career Bay has hit 18.3% of balls for line drives. As we all know, line drives often lead to hits. This year Bay has managed to hit just 15.7% of balls on a line. I think it’s pretty self explanatory how this drop is affecting his bottom line.
Another alarming difference in Bay’s numbers is the amount of pitches he swings at that are outside the strike zone. While Bay’s K% and BB% have remained close to his career numbers, his O-Swing% has dramatically risen. His current mark of 26.5% is a far cry from his career 20.4%. Also, he’s making contact on those balls outside the zone at a rate over 60% (51,8% career). One can assume by looking at those numbers that Bay is swinging at a lot more balls and making contact, but we all know it’s harder to square up a pitch that’s out of the hitting zone.
Lastly, and I believe the single most telling numbers are his GB% (Ground Ball %) and FB% (Fly Ball %). Jason made a career being a pretty extreme fly ball hitter (44.4% of balls put in the air). Yet this year Bay has put the ball in the air at a rate of just 40.2%. He has also seen his GB% balloon to 44.1% from a career percentage of 37.4. Basically, Bay puts the ball on the ground more than in the air, which may explain his loss of power.
Although the numbers I mentioned for 2011 are based on a small sample size, I think it’s a scary trend. There’s always time for Bay to turn it around. The problem is that Bay struggled in 2010 when most of his peripheral numbers remained close to his career marks. Maybe it’s mental, maybe it’s physical. So to answer the question posed in the title, I don’t really know why Jason Bay sucks. I know the indicators that point to him sucking, but it’s hard to nail down an exact reason for the sudden decline.
46 comments
saltygary
6/9/2011-10:56am at 10:56 am (UTC -4)
This is a great example of how stats can back up what one can see visually. I’ve stated a couple times that Bay has become a completely defensive swinger so as a result he is always behind and can’t drive the ball. They say his eyes are fine, which they can be but his hand eye coordination has slowed down. I really think this is more of a normal example of what happens to many players when they don’t use steroids. Look back to the early 80s and 70′s and you will see plenty of players done by the time they reach 34.
TRS86
6/9/2011-11:01am at 11:01 am (UTC -4)
Could be but those players usually tail off not drop off the side of a mountain after one of their most productive seasons.
saltygary
6/9/2011-11:28am at 11:28 am (UTC -4)
Add in pressure of a new contract, Citi field dimensions and a concussion and it could be a perfect storm.
njstuckintx
6/9/2011-11:08am at 11:08 am (UTC -4)
I would have thought that if he could handle Boston, there should be no reason that he cannot handle NY. But this is proving to be incorrect.
His mental midget-ness is causing him to tinker with just about everything. Mental has led to mechanical has led to putridity. I’m not sure how he fixes this while he is in NY. Does one eat his contract to get something back, much like GMJ for the roid user that was sent to the Angels? I think the Mets could get something a little better than that (marginally better, not talking Montero or Trout better), assuming they ate the contract. If you do eat the contract (saying all but a couple mil) then plug in FMart and give him full playing time, I can’t see where that is going to be a worse scenario than just running Bay out there. Let the kid play!
TRS86
6/9/2011-11:44am at 11:44 am (UTC -4)
You can’t eat the Bay contract yet. It’s just not possible. He’s still owed something like 40M. Best case for now is to hope he turns around and then maybe look to do something next year when the amount is in the 20′s.
njstuckintx
6/9/2011-11:46am at 11:46 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, I know. wishful thinking and wanting to see Fmart actually get some consistent playing time.
TRS86
6/9/2011-11:48am at 11:48 am (UTC -4)
He is, in AAA. He will when Beltran goes.
metsfan4decades
6/9/2011-11:45am at 11:45 am (UTC -4)
Well, the first part of your second paragraph is about as close to a good reason as any I’ve seen yet.
stickguy
6/9/2011-11:42am at 11:42 am (UTC -4)
I think the title is what bugs the anti-saber crowd. Traditional stats are the bottom line to measure success, but they can’t tell you why he sucks, just stamp him as suckidelic. And the ludites “kinow” BB, so they don’t need no new fangled math tainting what their eyes see.
still, he sucks because he can’t hit anymore. These saber stats just provide a peek under the covers (in a sense validation), and point out some trends that could be leading to the crappy results, but they still don’t tell us why.
metsfan4decades
6/9/2011-11:43am at 11:43 am (UTC -4)
Well, as one who is mathematically challenged, I actually understood this. LOL
Good job, Kirk.
I’ve seen the stats, heard the whispers, read the analysis. All makes perfect sense. But I still would like to know Why? Why has he tailed off this bad? And let’s face it, this started beginning of last year. Had he not been injured, I’m not sure what we’re seeing now would be any different than his line in ’10.
So…what exactly makes a player drop off that drastically from one year to the next, start swinging defensively b/c of it, and basically look awful? Unless you’re Lou Gehrig and have the unfortunate luck to lose your skills due to a devastating disease, just exactly what does cause this? It’s not like he was that old when he got here last year…..
TRS86
6/9/2011-11:46am at 11:46 am (UTC -4)
Yeah I have no idea. Basically, other than sending him to AAA to get things straightened out, there is not much the Mets can do with him other than play him. It would be short sighted just to bench him for this year because he stinks. All and good, yeah you might MAYBE win 2 more games in a lost season. Yet you are still stuck with a struggling Bay for next year. As I said above, he does not have anyone kicking in the door yet for his spot and he’s not a bad clubhouse guy so there’s no way in hell they eat his contract yet.
Ceetar
6/9/2011-11:51am at 11:51 am (UTC -4)
Lucas Duda is doing a pretty good job of knocking on that door temporarily anyway.
You can’t continue to let him bat in the middle of the order and hit .200 though. It’s costing the Mets games.
TRS86
6/9/2011-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
Come on Duda is having some nice AAA numbers but he’s no where near knocking much less kicking the door down.
TRS86
6/9/2011-12:00pm at 12:00 pm (UTC -4)
Besides, you can’t bench Bay yet. He’s here too long for too much money and he certainly is not gonna fix himself on the bench. Can’t platoon either because that’s not fair to Duda to never see LHP. Best thing is to ride it out a little longer then maybe approach him about going to AAA for a while.
Ceetar
6/9/2011-12:13pm at 12:13 pm (UTC -4)
Duda is playing very well _right now_ Why not take advantage of a hot streak.
And I dunno, maybe benching Bay will help. It’s not playing is helping. But it is hurting the team. Maybe pinch hitting with no time to plan/overthink an AB will help.
TRS86
6/9/2011-12:22pm at 12:22 pm (UTC -4)
There’s no way benching him for more than a game or two is gonna help get him out of what ever he is in.
Duda is playing well right now you are right. It’s a very small sample size for this year but he has always hit in AAA. He however, has not taken advantage of his time in the majors. Bringing him up to spot start with Bay is not good for either.
Ceetar
6/9/2011-11:48am at 11:48 am (UTC -4)
I don’t know what it is. He’ll go through a couple of games where you think maybe he’s coming out of it. He smashes a couple of balls hard, works some walks.
Almost want to tell him to get drunk tonight, don’t think about baseball, and just show up at PNC at 6:45 on Friday and have no time to think. Maybe he’s wasting all his good swings in BP. Maybe they should get him some real BP, with one of the starters doing a side session.
njstuckintx
6/9/2011-11:48am at 11:48 am (UTC -4)
Where is Susan Sarandon and her garter belt? Maybe that would help. Roses in the front!
stickguy
6/9/2011-11:52am at 11:52 am (UTC -4)
Bay was a bad idea to start with, so not surprised it ain’t working out (but surprised it is this bad this soon, very much in the Ollie area).
his problem? Salty already used the perfect storm line, but it fits. He was likely at the age where he starts to lose a little (hand eye, bat speed, etc.) So, he was making some tweaks to adjust. Add in getting spooked by citi (and Wright’s lack of HRs), and more tweaks in the off season. A slow start, some early season drives knocked down, and more tweaks. then the concussion, lost time (and who knows what it did to his skills) and another year older.
maybe he decided to be proactive, and become a gap hitter instead of shooting for th efences?
what it seems to be (my WAG) is natural decline from age combined with an attempt to reinvent himself as a hitter. When that didn’t work out, he was trying to reinvent more on the fly, and got himself so fouled up mechanically he could not find his way back. Then he started pressing and it got worse.
at this point, if he has enough skill/reflexes left to be a viable hitter, the reinvention will have to happen in the off season. Break it down, and go back totally to the old style, if he can even still do that.
as to the TRS arguement (he is better at home), that could be a few things. Just being more comfortable at home (plenty of guys have aome/road splits). or maybe his new approach played better in Citi, or maybe he tried to go more pull HR hitter on the road, and couldn’t? Really no way to know.
TRS86
6/9/2011-11:58am at 11:58 am (UTC -4)
Captain Kirk injured again. 2 shoulder issues this year.
metsfan4decades
6/9/2011-12:05pm at 12:05 pm (UTC -4)
Dang, these kids are made of glass. Didn’t they eat their veggies and drink their milk when they were young?
They all should have been out playing kick the can and baseball instead of sitting in front of video games and laptops….
stickguy
6/9/2011-12:29pm at 12:29 pm (UTC -4)
that was from playing hard (laying out on a diving catch and landing on his shoulder). rest if needed, and hope like hell no surgery. that would really suck to lose him too.
I screwed up my shoulder playing softball in college (same thing, went for a ball and fell, landing on my shoulder). couldn’t lift my arm for a week, and still isn’t right (easy to pull out of the socket). of course, I never saw a doctor about it!
metsfan4decades
6/9/2011-12:08pm at 12:08 pm (UTC -4)
Off topic:
Reyes: “I used to give away at-bats..I was edgy. Now I’m calm.”
http://208.7.160.123/blogs/mets/2011/06/reyes-%E2%80%9Ci-used-to-give-away-at-batsi-was-edgy-now-im-calm?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+nydnrss%2Fblogs%2Fmets+%28Blogs%2FSurfing+the+Mets%29
So this is the ‘calm’ Jose we’re seeing? LOL. Hey, whatever works….
stickguy
6/9/2011-12:26pm at 12:26 pm (UTC -4)
IOW, he is maturing and reaching his peak now.
metsfan4decades
6/9/2011-12:17pm at 12:17 pm (UTC -4)
Hmm…the As just fired their manager and replaced him with Bob Melvin. Guess we’ll be able to see sooner rather than later how he leads a club.
kistics
6/9/2011-12:24pm at 12:24 pm (UTC -4)
I think he’s just standing too far away from the plate and doesn’t have the coverage with his bat. I know he gets closer to the plate with his leg kick, but he just looks like he’s standing 20 feet away from the plate. I seriously have never seen anyone stand so far away from the plate.
You can throw anything over the outer half of the plate and you get strike him out.
And can someone tell him to stop trying to pull the ball? He even tries to pull the outside pitches and no wonder he grounds out to SS or 3B all the time.
stickguy
6/9/2011-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
could that be concussion related? not quite the same as being afraid after getting beaned.
or maybe he is trying to cheat since he gets beat by inside heat now?
any idea if he as that far off last year pre injury?
njstuckintx
6/9/2011-12:37pm at 12:37 pm (UTC -4)
We talking about Bay or Wright?
stickguy
6/9/2011-12:46pm at 12:46 pm (UTC -4)
I was afraid to go there. but I would bet real $$ that the beaning was in his head (so to speak).
wannybackstra
6/9/2011-12:48pm at 12:48 pm (UTC -4)
I think Kirk’s work shows that Bay’s approach is largely to blame. Swinging at bad pitches can cause ground balls and weakly hit crap.
The ballpark could be part of the mentality leading to this or so too could a general lack of confidence or health. Whatever the root cause, a bad approach can be improved in a player like Bay who has demonstrated a better approach. It’s not like he’s always been a free swinger.
If his line drive and groundball percentages were still at the normal ranges I would be more likely to agree that he’s just lost his pop. But there seems to be a more reasonable explanation.
I’m not a fan of BABIP as an indicator of luck, however. If you put a ball in play weakly it will be an out. If you put a lot of ball sin play weakly, you will make a lot of outs.
Kirk_C
6/9/2011-3:15pm at 3:15 pm (UTC -4)
Exactly. It’s clear from his O-Swing% that he’s making contact, just with bad pitches.
As for your comment about BABIP, I agree. If his LD% and GB/FB rate was around his career norm it would be easy to chalk it up to bad luck. Simply looking at BABIP doesn’t tell you the whole story.
hazmet
6/9/2011-7:07pm at 7:07 pm (UTC -4)
Excellent article, nice read. Keep’m coming.
Welcome aboard
Kirk_C
6/9/2011-7:28pm at 7:28 pm (UTC -4)
Thank you.
Prismo
6/9/2011-1:18pm at 1:18 pm (UTC -4)
Need moar formatting!
I think this shows exactly why “sabermetrics” are completely useless and irrelevant. Jason Bay is clearly struggling because he’s too lazy and soft to try and hit the ball well. Show me a metric for softness and I’ll buy into your math mumbo jumbo.
Just kidding! Very nice analysis Kirk. Hopefully we’ll see some more from you.
Prismo
6/9/2011-1:20pm at 1:20 pm (UTC -4)
One thing that really pissed me off yesterday was Jason Bay arguing a called strike 3 with a 3-2 count. He thought he had the walk.
It just made it seem like he’d rather have the walk than try to get a hit. With the way he’s hitting, he shouldn’t be deliberately taking close pitches in hopes for walks. He needs to start HITTING. Just didn’t seem like he was in the right mindset. Someone hitting like he is has no right to complain to an ump about a close strike call. I’m pretty sure a pitcher could use softballs and Bay wouldn’t be able to make solid contact.
njstuckintx
6/9/2011-1:31pm at 1:31 pm (UTC -4)
I guess the rationale is since he swings at so much out of the strike zone, anything he wouldn’t swing at must obviously be out of the strike zone, no?
This Bay chatter is going to get older in a faster fashion than the Madoff or Trade Reyes talk.
Dirtysanchez
6/9/2011-1:22pm at 1:22 pm (UTC -4)
Maybe we need to wait for his walk year to get production out of bay
Stickguy
4/7/2012-2:35pm at 2:35 pm (UTC -4)
I highly doubt he will be here next season, so with Met luck, he will do it for the Phils or Yankees.
srt
4/7/2012-4:13pm at 4:13 pm (UTC -4)
I really hope we are not watching Bay do this for 2 more seasons…..
Mike
4/7/2012-2:23pm at 2:23 pm (UTC -4)
Bay has been standing way too far away from the plate for two years now. Same thing again here in 2012. You can clearly see the pitchers just pick the outside corner and there’s nothing he can do. Why doesn’t someone talk to Bay about this.
Stickguy
4/7/2012-2:33pm at 2:33 pm (UTC -4)
You can talk to a guy all you want but can’t make him change.
Might just be a result of aging (and the bat slowing down). Maybe he is more worried about not being able to get around on an inside pitch, so he is “cheating” back?
In any case, he sucks.
Stickguy
4/7/2012-2:34pm at 2:34 pm (UTC -4)
who needs a saber analysis to tell why Bay sucks? He doesn’t make much contact, when he does it is weak, and he doesn’t drive the ball at all.
srt
4/7/2012-4:10pm at 4:10 pm (UTC -4)
Yea! Two in a row.
Bay is just done. Really sad to be watching, almost.
If he ever got that bat going, this lineup would be very good indeed.
How about your boy, Duda? 2 HRs.
srt
4/7/2012-4:19pm at 4:19 pm (UTC -4)
Nice analysis.
‘Lastly, and I believe the single most telling numbers are his GB% (Ground Ball %) and FB% (Fly Ball %). Jason made a career being a pretty extreme fly ball hitter (44.4% of balls put in the air). Yet this year Bay has put the ball in the air at a rate of just 40.2%. He has also seen his GB% balloon to 44.1% from a career percentage of 37.4. Basically, Bay puts the ball on the ground more than in the air, which may explain his loss of power.’
********************************************
Not being any saber metric expert myself, I can even tell this is exactly what’s happening. Hardly anything in the air, too many Ks, soft hit ground balls that if he’s lucky, trickle through.
Stickguy
4/7/2012-4:51pm at 4:51 pm (UTC -4)
it hasn’t gotten any better in the last year, since this piece was written!
gategem
4/7/2012-5:52pm at 5:52 pm (UTC -4)
The Mets had him too early and too late in his career.