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Mets, Mr. North Jersey, Real Dirty Mets Blog, TRDM
by Mr North Jersey
6/27/2011-9:14am at 9:14 am (UTC -4)
Ah, the never ending struggle with .500 ball…
I hope we see a major winning streak or the wheels fall off the bus.
And am I reading that right? 3 games over .500 vs above .500 ball clubs? and the opposite vs. under .500 clubs?
The Phils vs under .500 clubs, 22-6. That’s getting done what needs to happen. sigh.
6/27/2011-9:38am at 9:38 am (UTC -4)
In 1986 the Mets were 17-1 against the Pirates.
But hey, they have won series against the Braves, Brewers, and now Rangers.
Win 4 of the next 6 and it might really be time to believe.
Too early just yet, but on Sunday night if they have won the next two series and sit 43-41 before 4 against the rotten Dodgers?
Watch out Davey Johnson!
6/27/2011-10:13am at 10:13 am (UTC -4)
There is just no way to predict the road forward.
We can’t seem to beat the Pirates but we can take two series against the Braves this month as well as the Brewers, Rangers and to a lesser extent the As?
I’ve got no idea what these next series before the ASB will bring. If I had to guess, I’d have to say somewhere around .500 only b/c that seems to be our level of play so far this year. Never know though, could also go on a tear.
6/27/2011-11:16am at 11:16 am (UTC -4)
Mets always seem to have been strange this way, at least lately.
wasn’t it 2007 or 2008 that they beat up on the phils (12-6 or some such), but ot abused by the nationals?
As a met fan, always be prepared to expect the unexpected!
6/27/2011-9:57am at 9:57 am (UTC -4)
Here’s a question. Do you still think it’s a good idea to trade Beltran and/or KRod?
I still say yes. KRod more so than Beltran. But in order for them to do that, Wright, Bay and others need to step up and be able to carry the team even if Beltran is out of lineup. Same goes for Izzy, Beato, rest of the BP.
IF they can remain fairly competitive (and I don’t expect them to win the WC) AND trade Beltran and KRod for prospects and/or salary relief, I believe that would be the ideal situation going into next year.
6/27/2011-10:10am at 10:10 am (UTC -4)
I’m leaning towards yes with KRod. He’s starting to make me nervous in that his velocity this month on that fb is mostly sitting under 90 mph. He looked fine in April and some of May but not the last 4-5 weeks or so.
I’ve heard no one other than us talking about his velocity. Nothing about injuries or the ‘dead arm’. 17.5 million dollars is a lot of money.
6/27/2011-10:45am at 10:45 am (UTC -4)
Well if KRod is injured, his vesting option may not kick in. One of the clause in his option was for him to be declared “Healthy” by the doctors.
6/27/2011-10:20am at 10:20 am (UTC -4)
Without Krod or Beltran, this team is not making the wild card. That said, with Beltran and Krod, this team is not making the wild card. So, to save salary relief and get something back on Beltran where you aren’t if you don’t move him… That to me =’s no brainer. Krod, Beltran, Pelfrey, Parnell and see if anyone would spend 1.25 on the dollar for Turner.
Don’t want to consider it, but then there is the Reyes situation…
6/27/2011-10:47am at 10:47 am (UTC -4)
I agree. If they can move KRod, they can certainly afford Reyes next season.
I think the financial restrictions are only for couple seasons. So if they can clear salary for next couple season for Reyes, it’s doable.
6/27/2011-10:58am at 10:58 am (UTC -4)
Honestly, if you extrapolate it out, if you look at their commitments going down the line, they have this.
Santana – 24 million
Bay – 16 million
Wright – 15 million
Dickey – 4.25 million
Santanta – 25.5 million
Bay – 16Mil.
Wright – 16 Mil (option)
Dickey – 300K buy out
Santana – 5.5 Million buy out
Bay – 3 Million buy out
So, the money spent on Reyes would hurt for 1, possibly 2 years, then there is nothing on the books. Yes, you look to re-sign Wright, and yes, you’ll have arb raises and I’m sure money will be spent on an FA here or there, but I can’t see a major investment happening unless it’s for another stud pitcher.
So any money/prospects saved can cover the “expense” of Reyes for next year.
6/27/2011-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
I think if the Mets really wanted to, I’m sure they can work out the math to retain him. But I think it’s more than that.
There’s the ‘paying back to Einhorn’ issue. Assuming the Wilpons are trying everything to payback Einhorn, is it a smart move to save $20M per season? Or is it a smart move to invest $20M per season to a player who can potentially bring in more than $20M?
Also 7 year contract would be risky for a leadoff hitter who has had leg issues. His lack of walking issue. And I’m not talking about strictly his OBP, but the difference between his OBP and BA. With his BA hovering around .340, I’m surprised to see that his OBP is under .400. And this is probably due to the fact that Reyes is hitting very well and converts his ‘would be’ walks into hits. But I think that might be an issue as well.
6/27/2011-10:24am at 10:24 am (UTC -4)
I kind of see it the other way.
Sure, KRod’s velocity is down, but seriously–who closes if he goes?
Izzy does not have the stamina anymore, Beato is very much still a question mark, and as I sadly point out again and again, Parnell has never been consistently good above A ball.
Trade Beltran, get something for him, but if we have any hope at all of being in WC contention, we aren’t going to last very long with no closer.
And even thinking about 2012—barring a serious 2nd half collapse, I would think we all will agree that we should think about 85–90 wins and contention in 2012—and we will need a closer then too.
6/27/2011-10:31am at 10:31 am (UTC -4)
All good points and I’m willing to bet there’s only like a 30% chance KRod is gone come trade deadline.
I’m assuming it’s all going to come down to how well the Mets play this next month.
6/27/2011-10:54am at 10:54 am (UTC -4)
My issue is that by committing to keeping KRod this season and next, it reduces the chance of signing Reyes. KRod’s 17.5M salary relief would be huge in their financial flexibility.
They can think about who the closer would be for 2012 after re-signing Reyes. There are good options available for closers outside of KRod, but there is no replacement for Reyes.
6/27/2011-11:28am at 11:28 am (UTC -4)
this year most likely would be an audition process (hot hand) process if K Rod goes (and most likely that also means they have fallen too far behind in the WC race to make it matter).
but I would say there is a very high probability that if K Rod goes, another closer from the outside will be here for 2012. Might be someone just given the job, or some more guys added to the scrum to fight for it. But not likely to be a “name brand” big $$ guy.
But, I am not worried that parnell or beato isn’t going to be up to the task next year. But, at least if K rod goes at the deadline, they get a chance to see them in action.
6/27/2011-12:15pm at 12:15 pm (UTC -4)
Or refurb projects like Nathan
6/27/2011-10:25am at 10:25 am (UTC -4)
I don’t really see the rush.
How much more will the Mets get for a player now compared to right before the deadline?
6/27/2011-10:49am at 10:49 am (UTC -4)
I wasn’t questioning whether they should trade them now, but should they trade them at all?
I think they can trade them through waivers too.
6/27/2011-11:57am at 11:57 am (UTC -4)
Trade Em All!!! Blow this bitch up!!!!
6/27/2011-12:17pm at 12:17 pm (UTC -4)
6/27/2011-12:36pm at 12:36 pm (UTC -4)
Ah okay, in that case I’ll reserve judgment until the deadline approaches.
If the team goes on a roll and is really in the WC race (sorry, .500 doesn’t cut it) then they really should hold on to most everyone.
But if they’re still hovering around .500 or worse, moves need to happen.
6/27/2011-11:13am at 11:13 am (UTC -4)
I know it is a long shot, but other than Atlanta, not seeing a whole lot of great looking teams in between them and the Mets.
6/27/2011-12:00pm at 12:00 pm (UTC -4)
Probably Ari, Stl, Cin, Pit, Wsn, and Col are all saying the same thing.
6/27/2011-12:05pm at 12:05 pm (UTC -4)
and they most likely would be right!
6/27/2011-12:35pm at 12:35 pm (UTC -4)
I find it interesting that all the pundits I’m reading and listening to have wrote off the Pirates as not competing. However, the Mets have virtually almost the same record and many are still waiting out the month of July to see if we’ll be in the race.
So the questions are:
- have the Mets underachieved so far this season and some think they’ll pick up the pace?
- or have the Pirates overachieved so far this season and some think they’ll fall well below .500 when all is said and done?
6/27/2011-12:37pm at 12:37 pm (UTC -4)
Both teams have overachieved.
6/27/2011-12:52pm at 12:52 pm (UTC -4)
6/27/2011-1:08pm at 1:08 pm (UTC -4)
But weren’t the predictions by most at the beginning of the season for the Mets to be a .500 team? And that’s what we are right now.
Or are you saying we’ve overachieved in the past month and with Wright and Ike out, we’re lucky to be at .500?
6/27/2011-5:49pm at 5:49 pm (UTC -4)
Yep! Maybe .500 with Wright and Ike isn’t overachieving by much, but I think it certainly is with them on the DL!
6/27/2011-2:02pm at 2:02 pm (UTC -4)
I’m with Gary. Burn this baby up like a disco inferno.
6/27/2011-2:31pm at 2:31 pm (UTC -4)
DISCO SUCKS! DISCO SUCKS! DISCO SUCKS!
6/27/2011-2:36pm at 2:36 pm (UTC -4)
Gotta give a shout out to the Saturday Night Fever soundtrack.
There’s some good music on there…..
6/27/2011-2:53pm at 2:53 pm (UTC -4)
You know of this event, right?
6/27/2011-2:57pm at 2:57 pm (UTC -4)
I just think that SOME Disco music has stood up pretty well….but not all of it!
6/27/2011-2:58pm at 2:58 pm (UTC -4)
Kurt is now rolling in his grave.
6/27/2011-3:12pm at 3:12 pm (UTC -4)
Nah, he loved a lot of 70s music…
6/27/2011-4:40pm at 4:40 pm (UTC -4)
You bring back memories. Sometime between their early years and the later DISCO era it sounded as if the brothers Gibb became eunuchs. I recall I purchased the sound track album only to find it was incredibly warped. The manufacturer of the turntable I had (and still have) claimed it would play almost anything and so it did. But I’ve never seen a tonearm bounce like that sucker while playing that record.
6/27/2011-2:23pm at 2:23 pm (UTC -4)
One thing that I keep seeing (and Prismo said it just above) is that “the Mets are .500 so not a WC contender”
This, I don’t neccesarily agree with. The record does not matter, just the standings.
if they are .500 and 4 out of the WC, they are in the hunt.
if they were 10 games over and 10 out, then they are less viable.
so if 3 weeks from now, post ASB and after the tough (on paper) part of the schedule, they are still right about .500, I still will be looking at the standings.
If they are still close, go for it, since if nothing else, it means all the other teams in the NL (at least the ones not leading a division!) pretty much suck too.
if you are ever going to take a run at it, doing it in a year where there are no dominant teams makes sense.
6/27/2011-2:34pm at 2:34 pm (UTC -4)
My big fear is that they are overachieving, think they can make a run at it and then the wheels fall off the bus after the trade deadline.
And sure enough, they could win the WC, but it’s not like they are expecting 1 or 2 teams to fall apart. They are hoping for a minimum of 6, with the 7th a 1/2 game behind them. Impossible? No. Improbable? Yes.
6/27/2011-2:35pm at 2:35 pm (UTC -4)
I think there’s another, and much more relevant and important, way to view it.
They are only 4.5 back of the WC, but trail six teams.
If they trailed 1 or 2 teams, that would be far different.
Even if they were ten back but just trailed one team, they’d just have one team to worry about.
To me, let’s get to August 1, past the death march schedule which we have begun quite nicely, and see the team at or above .500.
Then we can really let our orange and blue imaginations run wild.
6/27/2011-2:38pm at 2:38 pm (UTC -4)
Only problem is Aug 1st is past the trade deadline, no?
Yes sir, it is July 31. OK, backtrack a few days…..
6/27/2011-2:59pm at 2:59 pm (UTC -4)
6/27/2011-3:33pm at 3:33 pm (UTC -4)
Knog, in this case, the extra teams don’t bother me, since they are so clogged up. Having what, 4 of the teams within something like 1.5 games? that jam can free up quick!
the case where I think you don’t try is if you are pretty far behind 2 teams (say 10 back in 3rd, but 8 back from team #2)
Right now, you don’t even need 5 teams to fall apart, just 1 (Braves, right?) the rest, you just have to be 2 games better than over 3 months!
6/27/2011-4:16pm at 4:16 pm (UTC -4)
Following on Kingman’s point is the fact that three of those teams (Cincy, Atlanta and St. Loo) could all very well be even better in the second half. Wouldn’t discount Washington continuing its rise too.
6/27/2011-2:51pm at 2:51 pm (UTC -4)
I agree with your assessment regarding standings vs record, but for this team in this situation I feel the organization needs to do what is best for the long term. The first piece is moving KROD so that option doesn’t vest.
I will not sway from my opinion to trade Reyes. There is no FA market to make improvements, the mets keep getting burned by improving the team through FA, and Reyes will not negotiate during the season. Bye.
I don’t think a lot can be gained with Beltran unless he is bundled with someone else, but go for it. If Wright can get a haul, lets look at it.
If this team hasn’t exceeded your expectations than you were completely delusional. They are fun to watch and this has probably been the most enjoyable team since the end of 07 for me. That being said they are no where close to a team that can complete in the playoffs and I would be against short term improvements or staying pat if that will hinder any future improvements.
Paulino and Reyes to the Giants is my call.
Paulino and Reyes to the Giants for who?
6/27/2011-3:00pm at 3:00 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t know name me 3-4 guys who are really really good and don’t make a lot of money and are younger than 24? lol
6/27/2011-3:16pm at 3:16 pm (UTC -4)
I’d take Howard, Fine and Howard if they could hit and field for a cheap salary.
6/27/2011-4:02pm at 4:02 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, sure we get Moe, but then who’s the second Howard? Curly or Shemp?
6/27/2011-4:30pm at 4:30 pm (UTC -4)
There is no other Howard other than Curly!!!!!!!
I agree with your statement. However, in order for this team to be 3-4 games out of WC race in July/August, they should be at least 6-7 games above .500.
Looking at the past WC winners, they have all been about 15-20 games above .500. This translates into 88 to 91 wins. I’m not sure if this team is at that level just yet. Who knows what this team will do when Wright, Santana and Davis all come back. But at this point, I still see 78-83 win team. Which is hovering around .500. If that’s the case, I think it’s best for them to trade whatever they can and restock their farm system AND clear salary to keep Reyes.
6/27/2011-3:39pm at 3:39 pm (UTC -4)
as to the trade or not debate, I can see it both ways. But, I distinguish between talent and $$.
If they are dead and buried a month from now, trade everyone bu Jose. But if they are still in the hunt, only trade productive pieces (K Rod and Beltran) if the talent return is significant. Not for Chris Carter, and some salary relief.
I think the fans can support some retooling/rebuilding, even if it means trading those guys (and they see prospects to get excited about returning). And if the team fades away, some salary dumps on expiring deals (if they think the money goes to Jose or some other talent).
But, what will be a nightmare, is if the gritty team survives the Batan death march schedule, is only a few out of the WC, DW is coming back, Ike still has his foot, but the FO trades K Rod and Beltran for $$. that will piss the hell out of the remaining fans, which has to cost money as they go along.
6/27/2011-3:49pm at 3:49 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t know if KROD would because the 17 million could potentially hijack resigning Reyes, but with Beltran that would be the case. And just because I say trade Jose to actually have the balls to do it with the team 4 games out would be unreal. People would freak and I would probably be too afraid to state that I am happy about it on any message board.
6/27/2011-4:10pm at 4:10 pm (UTC -4)
It worked out OK when the White Sox did it a few years back.
6/27/2011-4:42pm at 4:42 pm (UTC -4)
White Sox traded Jose Reyes?
6/27/2011-5:04pm at 5:04 pm (UTC -4)
No they traded Shoeless Joe Jackson to the Mets in return for Jose Reyes so the Mets could enjoy salary relief and still boast they got a great player in return for Reyes.
6/27/2011-7:38pm at 7:38 pm (UTC -4)
La-La-La….I can’t hear you, Salty.
6/27/2011-4:57pm at 4:57 pm (UTC -4)
What concerns me is if after all is said and done all major deals are predicated on establishing salary relief for financially desperate owners whose only objective is maintaining controlling interest of the team.
6/27/2011-6:58pm at 6:58 pm (UTC -4)
Regardless of the standings, if the Mets are not at least a few games over .500 a month from now then Beltran and Rodriguez’s contracts MUST be moved.
This current team is not good enough to make the playoffs, despite their valiant effort so even if the team continues to overachieve, its only a matter of time before that big losing streak comes…
6/27/2011-7:08pm at 7:08 pm (UTC -4)
over or under achieving is only relative to expectations.
and at some point, the body of work is big enough to say the expectations were not set correctly. And if they are still .500+ and in the WC hunt a month from now, that seems like plenty to me to say they are at least that good, and not a bad team winning more than they should be.
6/27/2011-7:56pm at 7:56 pm (UTC -4)
I have no problem with the record since I believed they would be an 78-84 win team, its just how they have gotten there. Despite the fact that Pagan and Bay have been largely ineffective and Wright and Davis have missed significant time, up until recently, the Mets have gotten all-star caliber performances from Turner and Gee while Reyes has come out of nowhere and turned himself into the best contact hitter in baseball.
While I will give Reyes slack do to his talent and previous success, Gee and Turner continuing like this simply cannot and will not happen going forward. Gee is on pace to win the CY Young at 20-6 with a 2.48 ERA and Turner is on pace to become the first player in the modern era to eclipse 100 RBI without hitting double digit HR…
Neither of those are remote possibilities so either injured players need to return and return strong or other players not named Reyes or Beltran need to step up and drive in the runs Turner will no longer be able to do…
6/27/2011-7:41pm at 7:41 pm (UTC -4)
Agree with your first sentence.
And even though I hate to give up this early, I think your last statement has a lot of merit as well.
Even if this team gives us a fun second half and manage to stay in the race down the stretch, I’m thinking we probably will fall short. The only way I can see it happening is if Wright comes back strong, Ike somehow beats the odds and makes it back as well and no one else is injured. Our pitching is extremely thin.
6/27/2011-8:00pm at 8:00 pm (UTC -4)
i would like to clarify current team as without Davis, Wright and Santana.
If all three of those players return August 1st to a team that has a .500 record and play to their exact stats as a Met, then it changes everything but the chances of that are so small…
6/27/2011-7:12pm at 7:12 pm (UTC -4)
looking at the numbers, since the Mets bottomed out at 5-13 on 4/20 (over 2 months ago now), the Mets compare favorably to the teams they are chasing for the WC.
The Braves had a major hot streak I think, and the Mets have only dropped 2 games to them in the standings (Thanks, Frankie for that!). And they actually have a better record than the D Backs.
so hell, why can’t they hang around the race?
6/27/2011-7:43pm at 7:43 pm (UTC -4)
Didn’t see your response before I responded above.
I think we can hang around if health is on our side. Actually securing that WC spot though? I’m thinking we’ll probably fall short of that.
6/27/2011-8:08pm at 8:08 pm (UTC -4)
because unless someone else steps up you are asking Reyes to bat .340 all season and lead the league in almost every offensive category besides HR (that at least is somewhat realistic), Turner to have 100 RBI and Gee to win 20 games.
6/27/2011-8:22pm at 8:22 pm (UTC -4)
You mean to tell me that’s not possible?
6/27/2011-7:45pm at 7:45 pm (UTC -4)
Hmm…I’m seeing Heyman is reporting Rangers have an interest in both Beltran and KRod.
6/27/2011-9:06pm at 9:06 pm (UTC -4)
Can we throw Pelfrey into any deal, please?
I’m that down on him.
6/27/2011-9:08pm at 9:08 pm (UTC -4)
6/27/2011-9:46pm at 9:46 pm (UTC -4)
I am really not sure why, but I still support Pelf.
6/27/2011-9:45pm at 9:45 pm (UTC -4)
Yes, I am sure after the next series, Detroit will be interested in them.
I doubt Heyman could accurately report what his wife is cooking for dinner.
6/27/2011-10:40pm at 10:40 pm (UTC -4)
Heyman does have a knack for stating the obvious and passing it off as a scoop, doesn’t he?
6/27/2011-8:51pm at 8:51 pm (UTC -4)
btw Havens hasn’t played in almost a week. Anyone know what happened?
6/27/2011-9:32pm at 9:32 pm (UTC -4)
6/27/2011-10:44pm at 10:44 pm (UTC -4)
But they haven’t put him on the DL? Last I heard, he was day to day.
AA earlier toda had a post up concerning current and future second baseman for the Mets. It was actually quite interesting. Evaluated Turner, Tejada, Murphy, Havens and Valdespin.
Speaking of Valdespin, I didn’t know he as suspended a couple of times now already for behavior resulting from a nasty temper.
6/28/2011-1:01am at 1:01 am (UTC -4)
Is it possible for Havens and FM to pass gas without injuring themselves. Both of them remain an enigma and will one day pass into mythology as the can’t miss superstars that only exist in folklore but actually never were. Somewhere both of these gentlemen are riding unicorns.
6/28/2011-8:52am at 8:52 am (UTC -4)
havens? Hopefully partly still being overly cautious since he had the surgery. Can’t be too serious since they didn’t put him on the DL (and I think the minors has a shorter one, like 7 days).
6/28/2011-9:15am at 9:15 am (UTC -4)
Add Lutz to that group too.
6/28/2011-9:20am at 9:20 am (UTC -4)
lutz is the worst. he gets hurt when he is already out on the DL.
He was shagging infield flies with Wright…..
6/28/2011-8:45am at 8:45 am (UTC -4)
6/28/2011-8:54am at 8:54 am (UTC -4)
How come Wright played 3 years with slappy mclimpington, and never managed to run him over?
If Ike never recovers fully from this, DW set the franchise back by years.
6/28/2011-9:14am at 9:14 am (UTC -4)
not really, they can now sign Prince!
6/28/2011-9:16am at 9:16 am (UTC -4)
seriously, though, you are correct. The odds of only to good guys getting run over… Your Mets, in action!
6/28/2011-9:10am at 9:10 am (UTC -4)
So Rusty goes on vacation and a daily open forum post goes by the waste side…
6/28/2011-10:52am at 10:52 am (UTC -4)
Guess again chief!
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