The 5-13 start now seems to be the anomaly. Really, it was a 2-12 stretch after a 3-1 start. They are 40-29 since. Many teams have two bad weeks; the Mets just happened to have theirs at the beginning of the year, and with a particularly vengeful group of media following them. To really put that start in an even brighter spotlight, had they just gone 9-9, they would be 49-38 now, with the 3rd best record in the division-and the 3rd best in the league-trailing the Braves by just 2.5 in the wild card race.
Last week, after looking like the Big Red Machine of the 1970s for an amazing 4-game stretch on the road winning both series against the first place Rangers and Tigers, the Mets lost to Verlander and came home to lose two more to the Yanks. They appeared to once again be teetering on the edge.
What happened? A stunning comeback win against the Yanks, and three crisp, well-pitched wins in LA to get right back above .500; the team now sits a season-high 3 above that mark. The battle for relevance became the battle to reach .500, and that has morphed into the battle to stay above .500. Is it time to prepare for the battle to approach serious postseason contention?
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The real surprise about the tenor of the season has been the way the team started so poorly with most of the roster intact, and how it has rebounded after losing Wright, Ike, and Young. It still says here that much of this must be laid at the feet of Terry Collins.
As this space has repeatedly suggested, Collins’ reputation probably did not deserve the hits it took after the Angels’ situation. Collins’ Astros and Angels years both resulted in annual second place finishes with less than star-studded teams.
Collins knew this group, learned from the past, and was ready to lead again. As Angel Pagan recently stated, in concert with Wright’s comments to Larry Bowa last year, the culture was in fact quite awful and slack under Manuel, and has completely changed under Collins. Despite the bleats of the Nabobs, the team did jettison Slappy and Ollie, and began to turn the corner in the spring.
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After the freak injury to Ike, the disabling of Wright, and the ending of the season of Chris Young, things did not look promising. But the team simply has refused to die.
The record sat at 26-30 before series with Atlanta and Milwaukee which this writer repeatedly-and incorrectly-suggested would be the beginning of a schedule stretch which could doom this team. Which could result in series loss after series loss, demoralize the undermanned roster, and bury the orange and blue. As Rod Stewart sang way back on his very best album, “Look how wrong you can be.” Every game does indeed tell a story. And as the First Lady of TRDMB MetsFan4Decades (she started watching at a VERY young age; perhaps even before she was born) reminded us all, never fear the schedule; that’s why they play the games.
The Mets have gone 19-12 since then. They have lost series to the Angels and Yanks and split with the Pirates (all winning teams) while winning series with the Brewers, A’s, Rangers, Tigers and now Dodgers-and winning two with the Braves. This series in LA is only the second series in six weeks with a team that currently has a losing record.
We saw one 5-2 stretch where the team allowed a total of 11 runs with two shutouts. We saw one 4-game winning streak where the team scored 52 runs. We saw the terrible balk-off loss in Atlanta which led to a 1-4 run of games; the team immediately rebounded by winning 6 of 7. We’ve seen Reyes win several games and we’ve seen flashes of the 2006-2008 Beltran. But we’ve also been led by Justin Turner and Daniel Murphy. Collins has the team pitching when the hitting is off, and hitting when the pitching is subpar; he has everyone contributing.
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So here we are, four games before the break, and for the first time in at least three years, we have a team which is fun to watch. A team which, unlike the Manuel groups of the past two years, comes ready to play, does not give up, hustles and makes errors of aggression rather than errors of laziness, and clearly is not going to fade away as the teams did the last two years.
We have Jose Reyes, the recent setback notwithstanding, having his best year. We have Carlos Beltran doing what he has done his entire career-play at an all-star level when healthy. (Note to Nabobs: 2006—2008 weren’t contract years; Beltran’s just really good when he is fit.) We have the very streaky Murphy producing similar but a bit better numbers than he did in 2009. We have KRod still performing at a high level. We have Niese gaining confidence and attitude and continuing to fight to become a number 2 or 3 at least. We have Dillon Gee simply winning. And we have Chris Capuano and Jason Isringhausen showing that Alderson does indeed know which are the right injury reclamation projects to sign. We even have Bay among the NL RBI leaders over the last few weeks.
The lesser players have also been responsible for the overall team success. Pagan has been creeping back to his 2010 form. Justin Turner provided desperately needed production after Wright and Ike went down. Paulino has proven to be the more-than-adequate backup catcher we needed. And the still very young Tejada has shown greatly improved plate discipline and overall instincts.
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This writer did tend to go with the crowd who felt that 75 wins was about right. Now, it seems as though 82—85 was indeed the right guess, and should we see Wright and Johan back and productive in August, and everyone else stay healthy, the team really could make a run at those legendary meaningful September games.
Bringing back Johan moves someone (who? Cap? Pelf? Gee?) into the pen as longman, and greatly strengthens pitching depth. The return of Wright moves one of Murph, Turner, or Duda to the bench every day, strengthening that area as well.
Should Johan come back strong and a healthy and rested Wright recover his form? Along with Reyes and Beltran playing at the same level?
It really is not unreasonable to expect a run at 85+ wins.
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Regardless, Alderson has brought in some fine players, and Collins has beautifully managed the roster he has, finding new ways to win despite the never-ending injury issues the team is faced with.
The 2011 Mets do not give up, and more and more the feeling here is that it is indeed the attitude a manager fosters which can be his greatest contribution to a team like this year’s Mets. An extra bunt here and there and an occasional lineup head-scratcher just do not seem all that important when viewed against the way this team comes to play and play hard until the last out every day.
It says here that we may have catapulted over what some of us mistakenly assumed would be another year or two like 2009-2010 and already are on the verge of being competitive maybe even later this year if the injured cavalry returns and there is no fire sale.
Should Alderson be able to spend to retain Reyes, and should everyone else except Beltran return in 2012, this team might be a heck of a lot closer to serious contention than many of us (incorrectly) believed.
Yes, being wrong can indeed bring a smile to the faces of Met fans.
36 comments
rustyjr
7/7/2011-9:01am at 9:01 am (UTC -4)
Hey Kong when are you going to grace Flushing with your presence ? Like to get tixx and meet ya
kingman 26
7/7/2011-9:12am at 9:12 am (UTC -4)
I promise I will let you know…I will email you…it might not be until September, but I WILL be at at least one game, most likely a Saturday game, and as soon as it is all set I will be in touch, and we WILL get together this year!
I am 2-0 at Citi, so we will need to keep that streak alive!
Sat Sept 10 against the Cubs it could be, but Sat Sept 24 VS the Phils is a very good possibility…
rustyjr
7/7/2011-9:18am at 9:18 am (UTC -4)
Ok let me know
kingman 26
7/7/2011-9:19am at 9:19 am (UTC -4)
You can count on it sir!
metsfan4decades
7/7/2011-9:41am at 9:41 am (UTC -4)
A good amount of credit has to be given to Collins. No ace, shaky BP, Wright, Ike and now Reyes out and they’re still playing hard and winning ball games.
On that note, Reyes is officially on the DL.
I never like to make predictions and didn’t beginning of this season but I did say they would win more games than last year – even if it was only one game. I still believe that. Not going to be easy though, especially if Reyes and Ike don’t make it back and the SP doesn’t stay healthy.
I like what I’m watching even if it is more or less the same record as last year. This team this year just makes it more fun.
And Beltran has now played in the most Met games this year. I don’t want to hear anything about a ‘contract year’ either.
saltygary
7/7/2011-9:41am at 9:41 am (UTC -4)
I’m not ready to eat my crow yet with my 73 win prediction, but will be happy to.
Only caught the first couple of innings last night, but Justin Turner’s hit was the perfect representation of the Mets of the past and present. 3 Dodger fields lazily approached that hit and there was no communication and no effort for someone to stand up and make the play. How the Dodgers approached that ball is how the Mets approached the prior 3 seasons. Turner pulling into first all smiles is the team now. They are having fun, they want to play and they want to win. They can care less about who is in the lineup.
I am still in favor of trading whatever to get the team in a better position for the long term and still feel that the WC is out of reach, but regardless of what happens I am enjoying watching every game for the first time since ’06.
metsfan4decades
7/7/2011-9:52am at 9:52 am (UTC -4)
I’ve watched all three Dodger games this series and they remind me of the ’09 Mets. They’re sloppy, they look listless, no confidence and their manager is definitely questionable. Mattingly has made some head scratcher decisions this series.
Prismo
7/7/2011-9:52am at 9:52 am (UTC -4)
A lot of people are whining that the Mets can’t possibly come back in the division because the Phillies and Braves keep winning.
Guess which two teams are playing each other this weekend.
*OPPORTUNITY*
metsfan4decades
7/7/2011-9:54am at 9:54 am (UTC -4)
Ugh. Hard to pick the worst of two evils there to root for.
I suppose the goal is the WC so we should want the Phils to win?
Man, that just left a bad taste in my mouth.
Prismo
7/7/2011-10:07am at 10:07 am (UTC -4)
Hoping for a outbreak of Mono. No one is actually injured, but all the Phillies and Braves players are too tired to play for 2 months. Sounds good.
saltygary
7/7/2011-10:32am at 10:32 am (UTC -4)
Man, mono was the best. I got to stay home from boarding school for an extra month and my HS girlfriend at the time came over every day because she was the one that gave it to me.I highly suggest coming down with it of you don’t have kids, or major responsibilities.
kistics
7/7/2011-10:11am at 10:11 am (UTC -4)
It’ll be an opportunity if the Mets are playing Houston Astros… I hope they can gain 2 games this weekend, but I would not be surprised if the GB stays the same.
metsfan4decades
7/7/2011-9:55am at 9:55 am (UTC -4)
This makes my day:
Mets to begin talking with Reyes camp soon, in hopes of reaching new deal in coming weeks
http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/mets/front_office_to_try_again_to_get_0npHTkPFyrzCQdTyU5W5LP#ixzz1RQZcecZD
kistics
7/7/2011-10:15am at 10:15 am (UTC -4)
Sorry to throw cold water at ya.. but this is the guy (Mike Puma) who predicted that Luis Hernandez is the favorite to win the 2B job during the ST…
Mr North Jersey
7/7/2011-10:23am at 10:23 am (UTC -4)
LoL, yes it is.
That happened to be his last “Exclusive” in which he said,
“Terry Collins is preparing to name Luis Hernandez the starter at second base, a source with direct knowledge of Collins’ plans told The Post yesterday. The move will be contingent upon Collins convincing the front office to find roster space for Hernandez.” – Link
How low on the Totem Pole must Puma be that he isn’t listed as a columnist for the paper he works for? – Link
kingman 26
7/7/2011-10:27am at 10:27 am (UTC -4)
“Terry Collins is preparing to name Luis Hernandez the starter at second base, a source with direct knowledge of Collins’ plans told The Post yesterday. The move will be contingent upon Collins convincing the front office to find roster space for Hernandez.”
Of all of the nonsense and outright lie/fabrications we see, this was perhaps the single most egregious and utterly nonsensical.
oleosmirf
7/7/2011-10:47am at 10:47 am (UTC -4)
to be fair though, Collins did say he liked Hernandez the best b/c of defense although i think he did that solely to motivate the other guys…
kistics
7/7/2011-10:31am at 10:31 am (UTC -4)
I’m not sure where he is in NY Post world, but I bet you that there’s 50-50 chance that this guy made this story up for the headline.
I just don’t see any advantage to the Reyes camp in signing extension now rather than wait for free agency.
kingman 26
7/7/2011-10:39am at 10:39 am (UTC -4)
Because Jose WANTS to stay in NY and isn’t the greediest guy on the planet?
Trust me, there ARE some humans who might be happy with 15 mil a year even if they might be able to get 17.
oleosmirf
7/7/2011-10:45am at 10:45 am (UTC -4)
also they figure that this injury just might prevent a team giving him that crazy offer. I just can’t see a team like Nationals, Royals, Astros, Mariners, Blue Jays etc. giving him that type of deal where they could have before the injury.
kistics
7/7/2011-10:48am at 10:48 am (UTC -4)
What I don’t understand is that Jose did come out and say “I don’t want to talk about contracts during the season”. So why would he go back in his words and talk about the contract now?
While I agree with you that Jose may give home-town discount, but I would believe the words that are coming out of Jose’s (or anyone else for that matter) mouth rather than Puma’s.
oleosmirf
7/7/2011-10:55am at 10:55 am (UTC -4)
because he wouldn’t be doing the talking, his agents will. The whole point of “secret” negotiations is to keep the reporters from asking him the same questions everyday.
It must be so annoying trying to do your job with 10 guys asking you “are you signing yet, are you signing yet” before, after and during each game.
This way he can not be bombarded with questions but negotiations can go on…
kistics
7/7/2011-10:59am at 10:59 am (UTC -4)
I still don’t see why Reyes would not test the free agency market. Not only this is a bad business for him, but all the other FAs
oleosmirf
7/7/2011-11:11am at 11:11 am (UTC -4)
if the Mets give him an offer he is happy with then he has no need to go to free agency.
lets say the Mets offer him 6 years 108 mil with two vesting options based on games played, stolen bases, runs scored, triples or something of that sort.
How much better of a deal can he get on the open market?
TRS86
7/7/2011-11:37am at 11:37 am (UTC -4)
Actually they can’t make options based on results, only on AB’s, innings played or games played. They could give him options or incentives based on all-star, mvp voting, silver slugger, gold glove etc. but not on actual stats.
metsfan4decades
7/7/2011-11:21am at 11:21 am (UTC -4)
Well yeah – LOL.
Was kind of tongue in cheek. As in I’ll believe it when the ink is dry.
oleosmirf
7/7/2011-10:22am at 10:22 am (UTC -4)
not surprising. Ive always been 100% certain the Mets were bringing him back especially when Alderson said he wanted to a few weeks ago.
Its only a matter of time…
kistics
7/7/2011-10:23am at 10:23 am (UTC -4)
How ironic is it that Reyes might be put on DL before going to SF. Conspiracy?
I heard some SF reporter talking on the radio the other day saying that it is highly doubtful that SF Giants are spending $140M on Reyes. They will most likely go after someone like JJ Hardy or Alex Gonzalez rather than Reyes. This is a good news for us.
saltygary
7/7/2011-10:34am at 10:34 am (UTC -4)
Al-Gon aint going no-where especially is Uggla keeps batting at the mendoza level.
saltygary
7/7/2011-10:36am at 10:36 am (UTC -4)
BAy may be the better bargin
Dan Uggla:
2011 $9,000,000
2012 $13,000,000
2013 $13,000,000
2014 $13,000,000
2015 $13,000,000
kistics
7/7/2011-10:51am at 10:51 am (UTC -4)
I meant sign Alex Gonz via free agency not through a trade.
oleosmirf
7/7/2011-10:37am at 10:37 am (UTC -4)
Since Sandy has already made up his mind to keep him and since the Wilpons will do whatever Sandy wants, him missing the AS game is certainly in our best interests.
Him attending the game but not playing (for the 3rd time) is a nice reminder to the other teams about his durability concerns which is likely to prevent a non-big market team from giving a Jayson Werth type deal. Whoever the announcers are will surely remind the whole country of that on multiple occasions as well.
TRS86
7/7/2011-11:33am at 11:33 am (UTC -4)
OK, this “secret” contract negotiation stuff is getting on my damn nerves. What part of it is “secret”? How the hell would one even have “secret” negotiations? Shhhhh….. we are not really talking to your agents about a contract right now. Or is it secret from the media? If so then how the hell are we talking about it now? Sandy’s group has proved one thing, when they want something to be secret, it stays secret. Either the Mets and Reyes’ camps have agreed to start speaking to each other OR this is a bunch of crap.
Mr North Jersey
7/7/2011-2:59pm at 2:59 pm (UTC -4)
Here comes the BUMP!
saltygary
7/7/2011-4:09pm at 4:09 pm (UTC -4)
It’s no Colbert bump.
kingman 26
7/7/2011-5:09pm at 5:09 pm (UTC -4)
That’s definitely my favorite thing about Metsblog!