If you hadn’t noticed, Angel Pagan has had a rough season. And I’ll start this by saying that I was never a huge fan of Angel, and I’d bet that he never reaches his 2010 numbers again. However, he isn’t as bad as his traditional numbers would suggest. There’s plenty of evidence to support the belief that Pagan has been unlucky.
Despite showing more patience at the plate(9.8 BB%, up from 7.0% in ’10) and making much more contact (9.5 K% in ’11, 15.3% in ’10), Angel has seen his batting average suffer to the tune of a .051 drop. Possibly more discouraging is the fact that Pagan has watched his LD% rise and his GB% fall. Tie that all together with a paltry .251 BABIP and it’s not hard to see why Angel’s numbers have taken a nose dive. He’s been pretty unlucky.
I think Pagan has been slowly coming around but he’s got to be frustrated. He’s improved his plate discipline, which is something the Mets wanted him to work on, yet he hasn’t enjoyed the fruits of his labor. Yet despite the past I think it’s probable that he’ll see his luck change sooner rather than later, even if he doesn’t return to the lofty numbers we saw from him last season. However luck doesn’t work on a schedule, and many players have suffered through bad luck for an entire season.
51 comments
Anonymous
7/22/2011-1:10pm at 1:10 pm (UTC -4)
I’ve alway’s considered Angel a 4th outfielder and a good character guy. He’s proven to be a little more than that but he has had moments of relapses such as yesterday that called people, myself included, to call into question his baseball I.Q.. I came to grips that I was somewhat harsh in my assessment in prior years but he can be maddening given his potential from a walkoff one night to throwing to an unmanned base the next. Wow, those are extremes.
I think the root of his problems may be it appears Giant reliever Brian Wilson’s beard has seemed to spread to Angel. The beard is wierd and the stache is trash. Angel, dude you’re a good looking kid, shave already it’s summer and 101 today in NY aren’t ya hot in that thing.
Anonymous
7/22/2011-1:42pm at 1:42 pm (UTC -4)
I’m with you in thinking he was maybe an everyday player at best but more likely a 4th outfielder. Unfortunately there isn’t enough in the system to warrant shopping him around when his value was high. I would have liked to see them trade high on him, but I guess it is what it is (i hate that phrase, by the way, but can’t think of anything better to describe it).
oleosmirf
7/22/2011-2:26pm at 2:26 pm (UTC -4)
I disagree with the idea that he is a 4th OF. The numbers he has put up since his return from injury are much better.
He is certainly a starting OF on the Phillies, Braves, Giants, Pirates and Brewers
oleosmirf
7/22/2011-1:45pm at 1:45 pm (UTC -4)
Im not overly concerned about Pagan’s bat because the numbers do show its more the result of bad luck/injury. He’s a guy that’s going to bat around .275/.335 8 HR 65 RBI and steal 30 bases with above average defense but still making a few bonehead plays.
Now hopefully Terry puts him back in the 2-hole now that Wright is returning and putting Turner back in the 7 hole where he belongs…
Reyes, Pagan, Wright, Beltran, Murphy, Bay/Hairston/Duda, Turner, Thole/Paulino
Anonymous
7/22/2011-1:48pm at 1:48 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed.
now how do you set that lineup, sans Beltran?
oleosmirf
7/22/2011-2:09pm at 2:09 pm (UTC -4)
assuming the Mets don’t get Domonick Brown or an MLB ready OF.
Reyes, Pagan, Wright, Murphy, Hairston/Duda (RF), Duda/Bay (LF), Turner, Thole/Paulino.
oleosmirf
7/22/2011-2:10pm at 2:10 pm (UTC -4)
I really want to put Bay in the 2-hole since he does draw walks and run the bases well thus moving Pagan to 5th but I think its best Pagan bats 2nd.
Anonymous
7/22/2011-2:38pm at 2:38 pm (UTC -4)
Bay in the 2 hole is something I hadn’t considered but that is an inspired and logical idea based on his walks. Much better than burying him in the 8 hole where he doesn’t even stand a chance at seeing anything to hit. Current hammy might also prevent considering it but I really like that idea.
Anonymous
7/22/2011-1:46pm at 1:46 pm (UTC -4)
The major item those stats seem to neglect is the force of the bat striking the ball and the acceleration and terminal velocity of the ball after it leaves the bat. IOW he may be making more contact but is not hitting the ball hard. The visual evidence from watching the games is that at times he does crush the ball but most often he does not make solid contact.
Kirk C.
7/22/2011-8:08pm at 8:08 pm (UTC -4)
I think the fact that his LD% (Line Drive rate) is up from last year would suggest that he’s hitting the ball hard more often.
Anonymous
7/23/2011-1:34am at 1:34 am (UTC -4)
While I generally support the use of statistics and use advanced math in my field of endeavor in this case the visual evidence does not support what the math suggests. If in effect it was pure luck then the Mets broadcasters would categorize Pagan as a hard luck hitter.
Kirk C.
7/23/2011-2:11am at 2:11 am (UTC -4)
So despite statistical evidence, you’re waiting on Gary Cohen to tell you Pagan has been unlucky?
And what if he did say it? Would you then discount your own “visual evidence”?
Anonymous
7/23/2011-8:51am at 8:51 am (UTC -4)
There is no reason to be obnoxious about this. The fact is we all appreciate the insight you bring. The fact also is I have post graduate degrees in both Electrical Engineering and Mathematics so I have a healthy regard for Sabermetrics. However, I’m also aware of the potential weaknesses of the mathematics. The same math is used in a variety of fields including Engineering. In this case I’m giving you visual evidence of what I have witnessed and since the announcers and color commentators have a more intimate knowledge of both the game and the players I’m using them as a point of reference. The one thing I learned in research a number of years ago is that sometimes the actual results don’t coincide with the mathematical modeling. And remember it’s only baseball. No reason to get upset.
Kirk C.
7/23/2011-4:52pm at 4:52 pm (UTC -4)
I’m not upset. Listen, I apologize for being snippy about the whole thing. I understand your argument about seeing something that maybe the statistics don’t show. The part that I find weird is putting so much faith in the commentators. IMO they’re a little too old school and bias. Don’t get me wrong I love Gary, Keith and Ronny because they clearly care about the Mets. Keith and Ron do a great job of taking you inside the game but I think most of their opinions are based in beliefs of an era gone by. Again I apologize for coming off as nasty, I realize I can get like that sometimes.
SaltyGary
7/22/2011-2:37pm at 2:37 pm (UTC -4)
Looks like KROD is up to his old tricks again flipping the bird last night:
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/2011/07/21/2011-07-21_francisco_rodriguez_blows_save_for_brewers_is_caught_on_camera_flipping_middle_f.html
Anonymous
7/22/2011-2:41pm at 2:41 pm (UTC -4)
Pagan’s a great guy and a hard worker, but he simply is not the player his 2010 WAR and three very good months suggested. He’s a classic example of a guy who, the more he plays, the more exposed his mental and physical deficiencies are.
At the end of last year, his traditional stats of BA/OBP/SLG wound up right where they have been his entire major and minor league career.
This year, in almost every traditional offensive stat, he and Bay are having the SAME season; check it out. He also has 7 errors in less than 70 games which is off the charts bad.
He’s a decent player, a marginal starter, and nothing close to the player fans and Sabermetricians ridiculously made him out to be in 2010.
Now, if we had a 2006-like offense, and he could just bat 7th or 8th, he’d be a wonderful guy to have. But expecting him to be some sort of star or featured player is not reality.
I love Sabermetrics and respect the hell out of Bill James, but sometimes these stats in a relatively small sample can be misleading, and Angel Pagan is exhibit A.
SaltyGary
7/22/2011-2:44pm at 2:44 pm (UTC -4)
+ 500 Gazillion!
Anonymous
7/22/2011-3:10pm at 3:10 pm (UTC -4)
I always knew you were smart as hell….
Anonymous
7/22/2011-5:30pm at 5:30 pm (UTC -4)
+1 to Gary being smart, +2 to Kong’s analysis of Pagan and +3 to me for agreeing with intelligent posters.
Pagan’s perplexing season was really last season.
-Wanny
Kirk C.
7/22/2011-8:23pm at 8:23 pm (UTC -4)
I agree with you that Pagan’s 2010 was clearly above his talent level. However I would be surprised if Pagan finished the season with numbers as poor as he currently has. It’s just not often you see a player become more selective at the plate, and cut down his strikeouts significantly yet see his numbers go down the toliet. He’s somewhere between 2010 and 2011, which probably makes him what he’s always been perceived as being- a fourth OF.
Kirk C.
7/22/2011-8:01pm at 8:01 pm (UTC -4)
I agree with you that Pagan isn’t nearly the player he was last year. My point was that he’s better than he’s shown so far this year. The problem is and always will be that there isn’t a stat for baseball IQ, which Pagan clearly lacks.
That said, and this is by no means an excuse, the Cardinals coach was probably two steps away from first base when Pagan threw that ball. He was way out of the coaches box.
SaltyGary
7/22/2011-3:05pm at 3:05 pm (UTC -4)
The buzz is that the Mets are looking at the Braves #7 pick from the 09 draft Michael Minor. Found an old chat right after the draft where Kieth Law says he will become a back of the rotation kind of guy.
This is what he felt in January in a column saying which prospects are going to be called up this year:
Mike Minor, LHP, Atlanta | Prospect Rank: 61
Solid command of an average fastball/above-average changeup; he’ll flash
an average curveball, on which nights he’ll be very good, and there’s
always a chance he rediscovers the plus velocity he showed in the first
half of 2010. The best part about Minor for Atlanta is that he’s very
unlikely to be awful or require a demotion; if he’s healthy, he’ll help
the big club.
SaltyGary
7/22/2011-3:07pm at 3:07 pm (UTC -4)
Sounds good to me on a Beltran rental
Anonymous
7/22/2011-3:18pm at 3:18 pm (UTC -4)
Sign me up for that. Then trade Poof and i’ll be a pig in slop.
Mr North Jersey
7/22/2011-3:38pm at 3:38 pm (UTC -4)
Meet TX.
Anonymous
7/22/2011-3:51pm at 3:51 pm (UTC -4)
There is a striking resemblance to about half my neighbors there!
Anonymous
7/22/2011-4:04pm at 4:04 pm (UTC -4)
lol that is cold.
Anonymous
7/22/2011-4:08pm at 4:08 pm (UTC -4)
MLB Trade Rumors also cited yesterday they are asking for either Randall Delgado or Arodys Viscaino. Both pitchers. I’ll take any one of the 3 in a tron deal.
Anonymous
7/22/2011-4:31pm at 4:31 pm (UTC -4)
They really have a need at both position & pitcher, but I’d lean towards getting the pitcher vs. an outfielder.
Are either of those 2 you mentioned close to the big leagues?
Anonymous
7/22/2011-5:08pm at 5:08 pm (UTC -4)
Delgado made a spot start for the Braves earlier this year vs. Texas and was touched up a little but first start not surprising. Viscaino I believe is healthy now but projects to 2013. I was researching guys last night I’ll post below what I read.
Kirk C.
7/22/2011-8:15pm at 8:15 pm (UTC -4)
I’ve always liked Minor. That said, I would aim higher at first. If I’m Sandy these are the players I’d be asking about in potential deals:
Braves- Vizcaino (not gonna happen, but worth a shot), Randall Delgado, Minor.
Phillies- Domonic Brown (pipe dream), Jared Cosart (not likely), Trevor May, Chris Singleton (would be higher if he wasn’t like to end up at 1B)
Giants- Zach Wheeler, Gary Brown. If neither of those, hang up.
Reds- Devin Mesoraco, Yasmani Grandal.
Yankees- They aren’t going to part with anyone like Banuelos, Montero or Betances, and I’ve heard Sanchez is trouble. Sorry Yanks.
Red Sox- Anthony Ranaudo, Will Middlebrooks, Ryan Lavarnway.
In the end, Minor and maybe a young upside guy would probably be a decent return. But you have to aim higher. The Twins got desperate and traded Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps last year.
Anonymous
7/22/2011-8:31pm at 8:31 pm (UTC -4)
i’d throw biddle into the phillies mix. and i agree that the dom brown talks are completely pipe dreams. no way the phils give up their top major league ready guy.
teheran into the braves mix (they may be a little down on him right now).
love the idea of the reds catchers. i don’t see any pitchers in their system that i’d be particularly crazy about but either of these guys would be more than sufficient as the center piece to the deal.
yanks could still be in play without those guys if they can give up three guys like Romine, Culver and Heathcott. would even have interest in nova.
Kirk C.
7/22/2011-8:41pm at 8:41 pm (UTC -4)
Yea I guess you’re right. If I’m going to list Dom Brown I may as well have put Teheran on the Braves list.
Another guy I’d ask the Reds about as a secondary piece is Billy Hamilton. He’ having a terrible season so the Reds may be down on him. He’s got great tools.
I wouldn’t really want any of the guys from the Yanks system outside of the few I mentioned. I like Nova but for that matter I’d rather just take Minor from the Braves. Yanks seem really hesitant to deal Nova.
Anonymous
7/22/2011-8:56pm at 8:56 pm (UTC -4)
i saw on my BA daily email that Hamilton stole his 1000th base of the season today. Not a bad feat for a guy hitting under .250.
Kirk C.
7/22/2011-9:03pm at 9:03 pm (UTC -4)
1000 would be a lot. Haha. I guess you meant 100….which is still ridiculous.
Anonymous
7/22/2011-5:14pm at 5:14 pm (UTC -4)
Viscaino:
The Braves got Vizcaino from the Yankees in the December 2009 Javier Vazquez deal, and they were excited about how he was throwing in his first season with the organization. He had earned a promotion up to Class A Advanced Myrtle Beach in June before he was shut down for two months with an elbow problem. He did return and is now healthy, though some are concerned about his durability. When he’s fine, Vizcaino has plus stuff and command, particularly his fastball and curve. Still only 20, he started 2011 back in the Carolina League, but moved quickly up to Double-A.
Delgado:
In a system with some pretty good arms, it was Delgado who topped them all with 162 strikeouts in 2010. Like others on this list, the 21-year-old Panamanian has plus stuff and pretty good command to go with it. He’s had some control issues at times, but has shown the ability to adjust along the way. He got a taste of big league camp this spring as a member of the 40-man roster, took that experience with him to Double-A and made a spot start for the Braves in June.
Anonymous
7/22/2011-5:33pm at 5:33 pm (UTC -4)
Delgado and VIzcaino seem like the upside guys and Minor the low ceiling high probability guy.
Won’t complain no matter which way Sandy goes because these are all well-regarded prospects.
I’ve read a few people suggest that Delgado and Vizcaino would not be offered for Beltran (Keith law included).
Anonymous
7/22/2011-6:08pm at 6:08 pm (UTC -4)
i think i might prefer Minor in this situation. yeah, having 5 aces for a pitching staff would be nice, but with Minor being the most ML ready, think i’d be more comfortable with that. Anyway, I won’t complain one way or another, as long as they seal the deal.
SaltyGary
7/22/2011-7:23pm at 7:23 pm (UTC -4)
Per Jason Stark:
• Here’s a fascinating theory on the Carlos Beltran
sweepstakes from two NL executives: They believe that all the current
talk that the Phillies and Red Sox are either the “favorites” or the
“most aggressive” teams in the Beltran bidding is being circulated by
the Mets to increase pressure on other teams in the bidding. Their
theory: The Giants wind up swooping in and getting this done, for a
package fronted by dynamic center-field prospect Gary Brown.
SaltyGary
7/22/2011-7:33pm at 7:33 pm (UTC -4)
Keith Law on Gary Brown for last years draft. 1rd 24 pick:
Brown is an 80 runner with a chance to be a plus glove in center
because of that speed, and he’s defied expectations this spring by
holding his average well into the .400s all year, making a ton of
contact but never walking. At the plate he’s got a short, flat, linear
swing that’s not going to produce power with a wood bat but should still
produce contact. If he does learn to work the count, he’d have a chance
to be an impact leadoff guy whose speed might actually fit the
over-used “game-changing” tag.
In the field, he has solid instincts and can run down balls to both
gaps, and his average arm is good enough to keep him in center. A team
that values defense and believes that Brown could be a +10 runs glove in
center would likely take him in the top 50 picks, but there’s a risk
that this is the Juan Pierre (offensive) toolbox all over again, since
he doesn’t have much pop and his patience is only visible with an
electron microscope.
Anonymous
7/22/2011-7:51pm at 7:51 pm (UTC -4)
hell, start him now even if he can’t hit, if he is going to be playing between bay and duda!
SaltyGary
7/22/2011-7:33pm at 7:33 pm (UTC -4)
I for one would be very happy to have another Gary on the Mets.
Anonymous
7/22/2011-7:42pm at 7:42 pm (UTC -4)
he’s developed a little bit of pop in high A this year with 24 2B, 6 triples and 8 Hrs in 444 PAs. He’s only walked 32x and struck out 60x. His line this season in high A is
.313
.384
.468 I’d certainly consider him a worthwhile acquisition even though Law is still not on board with him as an elite prospect. I’d be even more enthusiastic about him if he came with another prospect who seemed to be at least likely to reach the bigs.
Anonymous
7/22/2011-8:04pm at 8:04 pm (UTC -4)
Here is his 2010 draft scouting report from mlb.com:
Scouting Report
Hitting ability: Brown consistently
gets the barrel on the ball. It’s not pretty, his feet are moving, but
the bat is always in the right place, particularly against fastballs.
Power: He doesn’t look like he should, but he’s got some surprising pop.
Running speed: He’s got plus, plus speed.
Base running: He wreaks havoc on the basepaths, though he’s still raw and needs to learn the nuances of baserunning.
Arm strength: His arm is not quite average and isn’t really a part of his game.
Fielding: When he first started
playing center, he did not look good out there. But he’s improved
quickly in his routes and reading the ball off the bat.
Range: With his speed, he’s got more than enough range for center.
Physical Description: Brown is an athletic, though not overly big, speedster. He’s got a Reggie Willits body type.
Medical Update: Healthy.
Strengths: Plus, plus speed. Better hitting skills than expected.
Weaknesses: He’s still raw in many facets of the game.
Summary: There may not have been
another hitter in the 2010 Draft class who got off to a hotter start
than Brown. Speed is his best tool, and he can wreak havoc on the
basepaths. He’s got more strength and power than it would seem, and
while his approach is unorthodox, he’s got good overall hitting skills.
Relatively new to the outfield, he’s come a long way in terms of his
defensive skills in center. Pure speed guys who can hit don’t grow on
trees, and if Brown keeps hitting the way he started out the year, he’s
going to hear his name called sooner rather than later on Draft Day.
MetsFan4Decades
7/22/2011-8:19pm at 8:19 pm (UTC -4)
With Beltran going, Bay being what he is and Pagan not the CF I was hoping for, this prospect would be more than fine for me.
In fact, at this point I’m probably in the minority in that I’d rather have an OF prospect back than a pitcher.
Our OF next year just plain scares me. Kirk is done for a year with that surgery and FMart is looking more and more like he’ll never be healthy enough to be a ML starter, or won’t anytime soon anyway as in 2012.
Anonymous
7/22/2011-8:34pm at 8:34 pm (UTC -4)
while i agree that there is no immediate replacement in the system for beltran, Brown wouldn’t solve that problem either. He’s probably a couple yrs away at this point.
The best rumor so far — and I am certain it is little more than rumor — is the domonic brown rumor. Mets would be nuts not to jump on that one immediately.
Kirk C.
7/22/2011-8:44pm at 8:44 pm (UTC -4)
I’m with you on that one. The convo should go something like this:
Amaro- Hey Sandy. We want Beltran. We’ll give you Domonic Br…
Sandy- Done deal! (hangs up phone)
Sandy- Shit, I hope they don’t have a guy named Domonic Bruce in their system.
Anonymous
7/22/2011-10:14pm at 10:14 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, Brown would be unreal but definitely a pipe dream imo. I think like 2 months ago I posted the price to the Phillies would be Brown based on the division rivalry. But I don’t expect it. Wheeler from the Giants I’d be thrilled with but I don’t think they’d pay that high for a rental. I’m kind of landing at Delgado from the Braves.
Kirk C.
7/23/2011-12:39am at 12:39 am (UTC -4)
I like Delgado but I think the Mets can/will get more. There’s a lot of teams involved including the team the Braves are competing with in the division. The Mets appear to be a in a good spot to land a solid return for Beltran. Pitting the Braves and Phils against each other can really help. Also possibly the Yankees and Red Sox.
MetsFan4Decades
7/22/2011-11:09pm at 11:09 pm (UTC -4)
I can’t believe Philly would give up Dom Brown for a 2 month rental. But I suppose anything is possible.
Kirk C.
7/23/2011-12:37am at 12:37 am (UTC -4)
Yea Dom Brown is highly unlikely. However with the Phils and Braves fighting for Beltran and the division, you never know. Phils may decide that Halladay,Lee,Rollins,Howard aren’t getting any younger and they wanna really go for it and worry about the future,well, in the future.