For the 2011 New York Mets, speculation about the non-waiver trade deadline began back in Spring Training. The contracts of Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran were expiring, Francisco Rodriguez was 55 games finished away from a $17.5MM windfall, and the Wilpons were too broke to pay any them. On top of that, every pundit in the mainstream sports media had the Mets finishing the season with 100 losses and a future as optimistic as a George Orwell novel. A deadline fire sale seemed a near certainty.
At 3:59 PM EDT today, the trade deadline became a reality. So, how did reality match up with speculation? And what does the Mets’ deadline decisions say about the future of the team? Here are a few takeaways:
Jose Reyes is Still Here
Speculation: For the first 3 months of the season, the trade of the Mets’ charismatic shortstop seemed a certainty. The Mets had no money to re-sign him, especially since the Mets anticipated that he would demand “Carl Crawford money.” In addition, the chorus of pundits sang, “He’s not a Sandy Alderson player.”
Reality: Reyes has had a career year, stayed relatively healthy, and has more than impressed his new GM. Alderson even made an effort to re-sign him during the season, but was deflected, as Reyes expressed a desire to postpone negotiations until the offseason. Rumors persist about ongoing negotiations, but there has been no evidence. The Mets may be able to sign Reyes because…
David Einhorn has Money
And David Einhorn is, for all intents and purposes, the Mets’ new minority owner. The Wall Street-savvy businessman can give the Mets an infusion of cash they so sorely need. His wallet wasn’t all the Mets needed to get back on their feet however.
Einhorn displays his poker face.
Sandy Alderson Cleared Salary
And he did so with prudence. In place of the anticipated fire sale, Alderson made a minimum of moves, trading Carlos Beltran and K-Rod. The former, a player who would have given the Mets nothing in return had he left for free agency. The latter, a servicable, but replaceable closer, who wouldn’t have been worth his price tag. These were moves Alderson simply had to make.
The Mets Have Played Well
Like any .500 team, the Mets have displayed schizophrenic tendencies. For example, as of this writing, they’ve followed a 5-game winning streak with a 2-game slide. However, they have remained competitive, and have played a hustling, hard-nosed brand of baseball under new skipper Terry Collins. They’ve been entertaining enough to keep the interest of the fans and show upper management that a firesale would be an overreaction. They need a tune-up, not an overhaul.
So, as the trade deadline passes, the 2011 New York Mets are mostly intact. A season that looked hopeless in March has given way to optimism about the team’s direction. Odds are, they won’t make the playoffs this year, but this suddenly feels like an organization that is on the verge of a comeback.
13 comments
Mr North Jersey
8/1/2011-1:18am at 1:18 am (UTC -4)
Nice post Paul. Keep them coming.
By the way props on finding a way to include the word “schizophrenic”.
Anonymous
8/1/2011-1:04pm at 1:04 pm (UTC -4)
“Odds are, they won’t make the playoffs this year, but this suddenly
feels like an organization that is on the verge of a comeback.”
I think that is a very fair and accurate statement. I certainly feel that the team is working towards a much healthier farm system and has young talent at the Major League level. But, for all the progress they’ve made, the legacy of Sandy will be determined this offseason on who’s manning shortstop for the future.
Anonymous
8/1/2011-2:27pm at 2:27 pm (UTC -4)
unfortunate opinion on wilmer flores from BA’s Jim Callis: no longer considers him top 100 prospect material because his bat won’t make him a star at LF or 1B where he will have to play.
i guess that doesn’t mean that he won’t be good… but the stock has clearly fallen.
Anonymous
8/1/2011-2:52pm at 2:52 pm (UTC -4)
Not knowing who is available to the Mets from Milwaukee’s prospect pool I would expect Alderson to target high upside guys like the oft-injured former #1 pick Mark Rogers or Wily Peralta, a Latin American signing flamethrower project. He could take a shot with struggling former sandwich rounder Kentrail Davis — because I think Sandy thinks in terms of good fits for the ballpark too. Davis at this point is speedy but little else but apparently has some power projection.
From the various published top Brewers prospects lists, I don’t really see any other players that fit what I think Sandy looks for in prospects, i.e. high ceiling or good fits specifically for Citifield.
A guy like Caleb Gindl seems like a high probability guy but with the ceiling of a fourth outfielder. Cody Scarpetta is among the faster risers in the system, a pitcher who looks to have a shot as a 4 or 5. Former 1st rounder (or sandwich?) Kyle Heckathorn seems also a low ceiling guy.
The pool is not deep.
Anonymous
8/1/2011-3:03pm at 3:03 pm (UTC -4)
We should know who those PTBNL are by months end, right?
I wonder how the top 50 look now with Wheeler and the PTBNLs coming to the system.
Would assume Wheeler is #1 with Harvery #2?
Anonymous
8/1/2011-3:07pm at 3:07 pm (UTC -4)
my guess is harvey is #1 and Wheeler #2. Both BA and Keith Law have Harvey a couple spots ahead of Wheeler and Harvey is now at the higher level (and starting to pitch better).
Not sure when the PTBNLs have to be named.
The most interesting question to me is who comes in behind Harvey and Wheeler (the clear 1-2 in whichever order). The stocks of FMart and FLores have dropped. And probably Havens too. Perhaps Familia comes in #3?
By the way, I’ve seen enough of Bobby Parnell as a late game guy.
Anonymous
8/1/2011-3:21pm at 3:21 pm (UTC -4)
I’ve seen enough of Parnell as an anytime guy.
As for clear #3 and down… Good question. I would think Mejia would be up there. Familia could certainly be there as well. I tried looking through Mack’s Mets stuff for an updated top 50 list, but haven’t been able to find much.
Anonymous
8/1/2011-3:49pm at 3:49 pm (UTC -4)
depending upon the publications’ various criteria re: major league IP or appearances Mejia may not qualify.
I’ll throw out names for consideration…maybe the minor league guys can post their updated top 10s:
harvey, wheeler, familia, puello, niewenhuis, flores, fmart, a. rodiguez, j, marte, vaughn, den dekker, cecilliani, havens, goeddel, nimmo, (mejia and tejada if they qualify), a. rodriguez, a. morris, mazzoni, urbina (struggling big time), valdespin, cohoon, cordero, lutz, satin, fraser.
i’m sure i missed a few but there’s so many that are so close in the 5-10 range.
my ten would probably something like:
Harvey
Wheeler
J. Familia
Flores
Puello
Martinez
Vaughn
Niewenhuis
Rodriguez
Havens
Anonymous
8/1/2011-3:52pm at 3:52 pm (UTC -4)
i guess peavy and gorski have played their way into consideration too.
Anonymous
8/1/2011-3:21pm at 3:21 pm (UTC -4)
I’ve seen enough of Parnell as an anytime guy.
As for clear #3 and down… Good question. I would think Mejia would be up there. Familia could certainly be there as well. I tried looking through Mack’s Mets stuff for an updated top 50 list, but haven’t been able to find much.
Anonymous
8/1/2011-3:31pm at 3:31 pm (UTC -4)
Also, I read or thought that Sept 1st was the date the PTBNL were to be determined by.
Bryan
8/1/2011-3:49pm at 3:49 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t know much about what other organizations have, but you’re right about the Brewers pool not being very deep. I do think that Alderson goes after high ceiling guys when he can, but I wonder if in this situation he goes after guys who could be #4 or 5 starters that are relatively close to the big leagues, to try and give him some rotation depth in the minors next year. They have Schwinden but you don’t want to have to rely on him if you don’t have to, and I’m not sure how close Cohoon to being able to handle a major league assignment.
TRS86
8/2/2011-12:25am at 12:25 am (UTC -4)
Paul great job!