As the long-obvious reality of the 2011 season finally sets in for even the most optimistic of Met fans, we must consider the very, very difficult road Sandy Alderson has ahead of him.
It’s comforting to talk about the injuries, but let’s face it—the Mets started the season 5—13, and this was with Reyes, Wright, Ike, Beltran, KRod, etc. on the field. Even with zero injuries, this was not a serious contending team.
Terry Collins has definitely done all that could be expected of him and more, getting roughly .500 play from a group of players which includes quite a few retreads, minor leaguers, and mediocrities. As wild card hope is now just about totally extinguished, we will see if the team continues to play hard, or begins to mail it in, as they did the last two years.
Regardless, when considering the overall picture, Met fans will need to hope that Sandy Alderson is indeed the baseball genius many believe him to be.
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The NL East appears to be on the verge of becoming just like the AL East—two teams among the very best in baseball, and the Nats possibly poised to be a .500+ team ready to finish third. The Phils are not declining, and the Braves are back. That leaves the Marlins and the Mets. The Marlins have been without Josh Johnson much of the year, and Hanley Ramirez has been awful. And just as the Mets can point to the 5—13 start and dream of what could have been, were it not for the Marlins’ 1-18 stretch, they’d be thinking wild card too.
The bottom line is that the Mets are not in good shape. Another year has seen injuries to many of the supposed top prospects in the minors (FMart, Mejia, Havens, Nieuwenhuis) and there are not really any players surely ready to come in and help in 2012.
Jose Reyes? He’s been hurt three years in a row and five of his nine in the bigs, and his MVP year has turned into another gigantic injury-based question mark. Should the Mets invest the big deal in him? David Wright? It’s three years since he was a hugely feared hitter, and he may never be again. Jason Bay? He’s a mediocre player now with little realistic chance to be anything more. Angel Pagan? A great fourth outfielder and nothing more. Daniel Murphy? A good, clutch singles and doubles hitter with no fielding ability and terrible baserunning instincts.
Is Thole a serious everyday catcher? Will Duda hit and field enough to be an everyday OF? Are Turner and Tejada potential 150+ game players? Will Ike Davis become what he seemed to be becoming before the freak injury?
And the really sad part is that the pitching is clearly the major problem.
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R.A. Dickey has surely pitched better than his record shows, but do teams fear him? He’s a fine guy, and an innings eater, but he’s not a top 3 rotation guy for a serious team. Niese? Once again, we are at the backstretch, and his numbers are where they always are—mediocre ERA, mediocre WHIP, and another guy who is a decent pitcher, but not a front of the rotation arm. Pelfrey? What can be said? This space has supported him, but as he becomes more expensive, his tremendous regression from 2010 is very alarming. But if the Mets let him go, who takes his spot? Capuano? Sure, a nice comeback, but overall? Mediocrity and nothing more. Which leaves Gee. He has been a nice surprise, has thrown some great games, and is surely a major league starter. But a 4 or a 5 most likely.
And it’s the bullpen where the biggest issues reside.
Jettisoning KRod was a seemingly necessary financial move, but it weakened the pen with a domino effect. Everyone moves up a notch, to a role they are clearly not fit for. Sure, Izzy has been maybe the team’s best surprise, but is he the 2012 closer? Parnell, as this space has pointed out, has never, ever been lights out anywhere except for his rookie year in low A ball. He turns 27 soon. Will he become Heath Bell if we let him get away? Heath Bell had some great minor league numbers. Parnell didn’t. It seems as though Parnell simply is what he is—a classic example of the old adage that no matter how hard you throw, if you don’t fool the batters somehow with various pitches, changes of speed, excellent location, etc., you are not going to be a seriously successful MLB pitcher.
There’s really not much of a front line nature in the pen. Beato, Byrdak, and Buchholz could make a really nice set of 3-4-5 guys out there if you have a great closer and a serious setup man, but just as Angel Pagan is clearly overexposed when masquerading as a leadoff hitter and everyday CF, these guys are just not top notch 7th or 8th inning guys.
The overall pitching staff really is the epitome of the .500 nature of this team. Sure, there’s some talent, but all of it is second or third tier. If the team had one or two really good starters, and the rest of the guys filled out the remaining rotation spots, and if there was a fine closer/setup tandem, this staff would be at the least very, very good. But the lack of even one top notch arm dooms the overall pitching to mediocrity or worse.
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What to do? Be patient. That’s really all we can do. We don’t have a Vance Worley or a Tommy Hanson ready for 2012. Every week and month that passes makes it even more clear how wrong those of us were who gave credit to Minaya for absolutely anything other than being able to sign expensive free agents. And even this was simply due to having the most money to spend on players who were almost always past their prime and ready for the DL. Omar left this team in abominable shape.
As Confucius might have said were he a baseball fan, a journey to the playoffs begins with a single trade. Let us hope that Beltran for Wheeler was that single trade. A young hard-thrower, Wheeler has yet to light up the minors, but he does not turn 22 until next spring, scouts rave about his stuff, and the Giants have an unparalleled recent record of developing pitchers.
Should Mejia and Havens recover, they could be two more nice pieces. But barring a return to health (and to Queens) from Reyes for 150+ games, a return from Wright to pre-strikeout king form, a return to the promise of 2010-2011 from Ike, a return to simply being a nice number 3 starter who can actually take the mound for an entire year from Johan, and a final departure of the seemingly never-ending injury cloud that hangs over this team, it is hard to envision a return to contention in the next year or two.
But teams are not often built overnight. The Phils drafted and traded wisely for years before turning into what they currently are. As did the early-to-mid 1990s Yankees before they won the WS 4 out of 5 years. Let’s remember, those teams were anchored by homegrown players—Jeter/Pettitte/Mariano/Bernie/Posada—all drafted or signed as amateur FAs. They went 14 years without the postseason before becoming a juggernaut.
There’s hope. There’s always hope, and with Alderson there is—at this point at least—serious hope for a resurrection, but it’s not going to happen in a year, and maybe not in two years. It’s going to take time. Possibly a lot of time.
But with Terry Collins at the helm for at least another year, we can at the very least hopefully count on continued hard-nosed play, continued efforts by the players, and the continued use of the roster in ways designed to maximize their abilities.
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It’s tempting and an easy way out to just go negative and to think that right now that the Mets are the Orioles or the Blue Jays—simply forever buried behind infinitely better teams. At the moment, they are. And the Nats with their improvement, with Davey Johnson, and with Strasburg and Harper, are poised to continue getting better.
But baseball, as a wise man once said, is a funny game.
Surely it is possible that over the next two years Wheeler, Mejia, Havens, Duda, Harvey and others will develop into fine and productive players for the Mets, and/or be used in trades to bring in some veteran pieces.
This is what we must hope for.
The days of blaming failures on injuries or feeling that the team is “one or two players away” are dead and buried for the reasonable fan. The darkest period of orange and blue night is over; reality has been faced and the removal of Ollie, Castillo, Beltran, and KRod has definitively signaled the true turning of the page from the Minaya era of error.
Yes, it is indeed early morning in Met Nation. But it could be a very, VERY long time until it is afternoon.
15 comments
Anonymous
8/15/2011-11:26am at 11:26 am (UTC -4)
Missed seeing you on Saturday Knog.
Anonymous
8/15/2011-11:35am at 11:35 am (UTC -4)
Couple of points IMO (of course!)
Vance Worley is not tommy hanson. He was decidedly average at best in the minors, and was never really considered a big time prospect by the Phils. In many ways, he was probably Dillo Gee. Certainly came out with a nice start to his career, but he does nto have the pure stuff to project to a top of the rotation guy.
But as you note, BB is a funny game, and some times players don’t end up doing what you expect them to! Of course, there are also legions of guys that started out like HOF players, and relatively quickly settled back to the level of their talent.
And the Nats, who the hell knows? Certainly some interesting players, but it is really hard to get a bunch of young guys to all gel together (performance peaks, health) and of course money comes into play. But, they could be on the rise. But for now, the Mets, Marlins and Nats to me are all building teams that in any given year could hit lotto (like 2006!) and make noise, but are otherwise .500+/- teams
Anonymous
8/15/2011-11:46am at 11:46 am (UTC -4)
Oh, one last thing. Yes, Duda is going to hit enough (more than) to force himself into regular PT. Not sure how/where it will be with the mets (ultimately he needs to be a 1B or LF). And since we are likely stuck with Bay at least 1 more year, and there is a chance Ike will be back (though a chance he doesn’t play next year either), it could be a year of adventure in RF. Hopefully he develops enough defensive chops after getting the practice time in to hold is own. at least he has a nice strong arm!
MetsFan4Decades
8/15/2011-12:32pm at 12:32 pm (UTC -4)
Nice post this morning, Kingman.
Not sure I agree with the other NL east teams going forward. As you said, BB is a funny game. I see the Braves on the verge of being a contending team going forward for years to come but the Phils? not so much.
The Braves have concentrated on pitching and as usual, have some fine young pitchers ready or almost ready coming up. To go along with that, they’ve developed some good young hitters as well in Heyward and Freeman, just to name 2. All this on a payroll far less than either the Mets, Phils or Nats.
The Phils have concentrated on FA signings and maxing out their payroll. Not sure how they’re going to stay competitive going forward.
The Marlins? I might be impressed if Loria was running the show. Did you see where they DFA’d LoMo not so much b/c of performance but b/c of ‘off field’ so called transgressions they don’t like? Loria is just going to take that team down. His ego is bigger than his desire to win, apparently.
The Nats obviously have two of the biggest draft signings in the past couple of years with Strasburg and Harper. But then they go ahead and give Werth that contract. Nice to have money but I’m not sure they’re using it all very wisely.
The Mets with Sandy & Co. are in year one of a sort of a rebuilding mode. Rebuilding of credibility, rebuilding of the farm systems, rebuilding of fan confidence and a rebuilding of sorts of the ML team itself. It’s going to take a couple of years I think to get to make that vision a reality. Rome wasn’t built in a day, so they say.
I’m willing to be patient. Don’t have much choice anyway. One of my biggest hopes for next year is that we can get away from these multitude of long resulting injuries that have derailed this team for the past 3 years.
This off season ought to be very interesting and telling, to say the least.
Anonymous
8/15/2011-1:11pm at 1:11 pm (UTC -4)
Kong,
As always, your posts are a good read.
I do think that you start to put a shine on it at the end, but I also don’t think that the current status is not as dark as it is. Maybe I put this team closer to 8:30 or 9 AM, versus the very early morning.
Yes, there is certainly a great deal of work to do. Signing a SP or 2, signing about 6 BP arms (including closer), platoon C and some bench players is the meat of what needs to happen. 2B and RF need to be addressed as well, and this is assuming this team doesn’t need to start looking for a SS as well. Very easy to go doom and gloom. That said, I’m very excited about the kids they have. The young pitchers show signs of promise. Between Havens, Turner, Murphy and the like, I’m not worried about filling 2B. I would like to see Duda in LF, Bay in RF, but we’ll see. I’d like to see Ankiel signed, to at least platoon with Pagan or drive him to the bench. Or push
The SP worries me for 2012, but we are at the cusp of seeing an influx of talent coming in internally. With Cap getting through waivers, I’m fairly certain he’ll be gone, and if traded I don’t think we see him re-sign. Marquis did say he’d love to sign with the Mets! (kidding).
Anyway, yes, lots of work to do, some things have to fall correctly, but I am in full support of what Alderson has been doing and has done thus far. From cutting the dead wood, to creating payroll flexibility, starting to revamp the minors, getting the team younger and doing so with a (perceived) long term plan versus slapping Band-Aids on gunshot wounds, I’m going to trust that the light at the end of the tunnel is actually sunlight and not a train.
MetsFan4Decades
8/15/2011-1:21pm at 1:21 pm (UTC -4)
And in the short term, are we going to sign Nimmo before the deadline today?
Anonymous
8/15/2011-1:48pm at 1:48 pm (UTC -4)
I believe we do!
MetsFan4Decades
8/15/2011-2:29pm at 2:29 pm (UTC -4)
Crossing my fingers.
I think Nimmo projects to be a real nice talent. I’m reading there were several teams picking after the Mets who were very disappointed he was taking off the board before their turn.
Paul J. Festa
8/15/2011-3:25pm at 3:25 pm (UTC -4)
Well said. This is a realistic evaluation of where we are right now.
Anonymous
8/15/2011-7:34pm at 7:34 pm (UTC -4)
Kong, another fine piece.
As I wrote previously if you use the development of Jerry Koosman and Tom Seaver as a reference then understanding that the exceptionally talented kid pitchers presently in the minors may not arrive until 2013 and recalling that Jerry Koosman’s first full season was 1968 and Tom Seaver’s first full season was 1967 then we may not see another contending team until 2014 or 2015.
I don’t blame Minaya for the present state of the Mets just as I don’t blame Art Howe for his incompetence. Instead we have to look at the owner that hired these two (and extended Minaya) and other FO personnel over the years for the cause of the problems you describe. We owe a debt of gratitude to Bud Selig for thrusting Sandy on the Wilpons or Lord knows who they may have hired as GM.
Anonymous
8/15/2011-7:54pm at 7:54 pm (UTC -4)
guess you have to define “contending”. mid-upper 80s win team that can hang around the WC race? or serious WS threat going into the year?
the latter could be 2015, but the other could have been this year if they just did not get so slaughtered with injuries.
Most likely 2012 is another =/- .500 building season, but like with 2006, you never know when a couple of key pick ups launch the team into a special year.
the real key, if you are waiting on harvey and wheeler to be seaver and Koos (or linci and cain), is the quality of the veteran stop-gaps (and other building blocks, like Neise) and how well they can keep them afloat.
If nothing else, if reyes comes back and Ike is healthy (still not counting on that…), next years team has more talent (positionally) than either the 67 or 68 teams!
MetsFan4Decades
8/15/2011-9:46pm at 9:46 pm (UTC -4)
On that note, SNY is reporting the earliest Reyes will be back is early Sept. Maybe they should have just kept him rehabbing 5 weeks or better the first time…..
Anonymous
8/15/2011-10:17pm at 10:17 pm (UTC -4)
he seemed to rehab plenty long, and did not seem limited when he came back. At some point they have to be considered “healed” and put back on the filed.
Reyes might need another flexibility and conditioning coach to loosen up them hammies!
Anonymous
8/15/2011-10:19pm at 10:19 pm (UTC -4)
And I still think this has to take a major hit to his market value. or at least the years he gets. And for some teams, including the mets, the years might be the bigger stumbling block.
Tis going to be very interesting to see what he gets this winter. but i still expect him to be back.
Anonymous
8/15/2011-10:19pm at 10:19 pm (UTC -4)
And I still think this has to take a major hit to his market value. or at least the years he gets. And for some teams, including the mets, the years might be the bigger stumbling block.
Tis going to be very interesting to see what he gets this winter. but i still expect him to be back.