I believed that Mike Pelfrey could be a number two pitcher for the Mets. I believed that, with a solid team around him, and especially with Santana slotted as the ace, Pelf could be a solid number two. And if we added another front line starter? I believed we’d have one of the best number three pitchers in Pelf, then. Basically, I was happy with Pelfrey. Then this year happened. Until about ten minutes ago, I thought this guy could barely hold it together and, nevermind that he’s our “ace,” I just wanted to get rid of him. Now, after some careful analysis, I find I was wrong in both instances. Pelfrey is the definition of average.
Let’s start with the conventional stats. Since becoming a permanent member of the rotation four years ago, he has not been injured and has started an average of 32.25 games per year (using his current projected numbers). For his career, he has a 49-51 record and an ERA of 4.36 with a WHIP of 1.45. You don’t need MLB averages to look at those numbers and know they are as middle of the road as they come. His 1.59 K:BB ratio says much the same, that he is neither a power pitcher nor does he have exceptional command. He averages, in full seasons, about 196 IP. That tells you he is eating a nice number of innings but he isn’t going the distance too often.
Then come the more advanced stats. His quality start percentage is exactly 50% and he has an identical number of cheap wins (wins in non-quality starts) as tough losses (losses in quality starts), with 12. His average game score is 48, compared to the MLB average of 49. His run support, measured either by games (4.4) or per 27 outs (4.2), is barely off the MLB average of 4.6 while he throws just 5 more pitches a game (for an even 100) and lasts just one extra out per start (for an even 6 IP/GS) than the league averages. His strike, contact, and ball in play percentages are all, at most, 2% off the major league averages for those categories. All these numbers tell you his individual average start is, well, average.
Then comes the big picture. For starters, the Mets are 66-73 in games started by Pelfrey over his career, a completely unremarkable number. Over his career, his Win Probability Added (WPA+) is 64.2 while his Win Probability Subtracted (WPA-) is -65.1, for an overall WPA of -0.9*. His career WAR comes out to 0.97. To put that into perspective, Baseball Reference sites a WAR ranging from 0 to 2 as suitable for a “reserve player.”
The most comparable player to Pelfrey through this point in his career since the Mets began play is John Stottlemyre. Since I’m assuming that, like me, you don’t know who the fuck that is, the next most comparable pitcher is Kip Wells. Perhaps even more disturbing about Pelfrey is that his hit, home run, walk, and strikeout rates have changed hardly at all since he became a regular in the rotation. But you don’t even have to look at the numbers for that. Watch him on the mound and you will see that mentally, he just isn’t there. He can’t ride the ups and downs and so he unravels far too often.
So for a guy drafted 9th overall, slotted as a two with a healthy roster, and as an ace sans Santana, we got Kip Wells. Does this mean we should cut him, literally and figuratively? No. But does it mean we should expect him to be the pitcher we thought he could be? Also no. Ideally, we would slot Pelfrey four, where there would be little pressure and his status as a “reserve player” would actually be good value there. More realistically, he will settle in as a three because we won’t have a good enough roster. This is all assuming, of course, that he stays with the Mets beyond this year.
But the absolute most unsettling aspect of all this? I feel much the same way about Niese now as I did about Pelfrey just a couple years ago.
*measured against the average MLB team
22 comments
Anonymous
8/24/2011-1:16am at 1:16 am (UTC -4)
pssst, cursing in articles here is bad form imo, while the usage is correct and true I’ve never seen it done here which is part of what endears this site to me. The author’s don’t need expeletives, yourself included as your contributions to date have been terrific, you and the rest of the crew are above that. just offering it as constructive appraisal, let the other author’s weigh in as this is just one bloggers take.
Anonymous
8/24/2011-1:39am at 1:39 am (UTC -4)
agreed and well put on all fronts. solid articles. no need for expletives. They are, after all, just lack of creative adjectives. Keep churning out the good articles, my man. and keep it PG-13.5.
MetsFan4Decades
8/24/2011-2:02am at 2:02 am (UTC -4)
Well, don’t now what it says about me that I just read through this article and didn’t even notice the expletives until you all pointed them out.
Anonymous
8/24/2011-2:06am at 2:06 am (UTC -4)
It means you have good eyes. You don’t see the bad. Which amazes me because you watch the Mets. Do you just see an empty field and the opposing team standing by home plate getting ready to hit?
Joe
8/26/2011-4:31pm at 4:31 pm (UTC -4)
shut the fuck up
Anonymous
8/24/2011-1:20am at 1:20 am (UTC -4)
And with his rising salary, he, to me anyway, is total trade bait. With the 1st rd. selection secure, go after a CJ wilson type, hope you re-sign Reyes, and trade Pelf for CF and or BP help. Someone will need average. I’m convinced of that, every time I see Marquis or the like sign a decent sized contract. Who wouldn’t want pelf with only 1 year left?
TRS86
8/24/2011-2:32am at 2:32 am (UTC -4)
Here’s the issue, do they have enough money to re-sign Reyes AND sign Wilson?
Anonymous
8/24/2011-3:13am at 3:13 am (UTC -4)
One would hope so. And to that, I would say trading Pelf and his salary would be tantamount to the whole deal. And if that gets a replacement for Pagan, well, then Pagan is tradeable as well. I think it would be a series of dominos, taking into consideration the Wilpons & Madoff and all.
But to answer your question: Do they? They should. Do they really? Not sure.
MetsFan4Decades
8/24/2011-2:03am at 2:03 am (UTC -4)
Spot on, IMO.
At this point, Pelf is what he is. He’ll have his ups and downs and not get much better than he is at this point.
I don’t mind retaining him, but at what cost?
Ceetar
8/24/2011-2:10am at 2:10 am (UTC -4)
relatively cheaply in the grand scheme of things. It’s unlikely the Mets have 5 pitchers better than him to start without paying crazy money to someone like Sabathia.
TRS86
8/24/2011-2:33am at 2:33 am (UTC -4)
Well, what is a league average healthy innings eater worth on the open market? Ask Jason Marquis, oh yeah he’s not healthy either.
MetsFan4Decades
8/24/2011-2:04am at 2:04 am (UTC -4)
Speaking of Niese…..I believe he’s got better stuff than Pelf but he sure didn’t showcase he knows how to pitch tonight. That effort was just flat out bad. Almost bad as the Mets offense not capitalizing on opportunities in the early innings.
Anonymous
8/26/2011-3:17pm at 3:17 pm (UTC -4)
Niese was cruising and the curve was curling, then after fanning Pence, he pitched hurt. If Niese were a stock, I’d buy.
Anonymous
8/26/2011-3:17pm at 3:17 pm (UTC -4)
Niese was cruising and the curve was curling, then after fanning Pence, he pitched hurt. If Niese were a stock, I’d buy.
Anonymous
8/24/2011-2:18am at 2:18 am (UTC -4)
“Terry Collins expects both Jon Niese and Scott Hairston to be placed on the disabled list soon. Both with injured ribs tonight.”At what point do you wake up, Inception like, and say “whew, it was just a nightmare within a nightmare within a nightmare.”
Anonymous
8/26/2011-3:16pm at 3:16 pm (UTC -4)
Alex, …I’m guessing your boys are not old enough to read what you’ve written. Regardless, do you really want your boys reading curse words that come from Daddy?
BTW, Niese is not Pelf. I have the opinion is he mentally stronger and being a lefty gives him an advantage.
Anonymous
8/26/2011-3:16pm at 3:16 pm (UTC -4)
Alex, …I’m guessing your boys are not old enough to read what you’ve written. Regardless, do you really want your boys reading curse words that come from Daddy?
BTW, Niese is not Pelf. I have the opinion is he mentally stronger and being a lefty gives him an advantage.
Paul J. Festa
8/26/2011-3:47pm at 3:47 pm (UTC -4)
Pelf contributes a lot of innings, mediocre innings, but the Mets just don’t have enough funds to find another innings-eater who pitches any better. Besides, if you look at Pelf’s career stats, the trend indicates that he pitches better in even-numbered years. How’s that for sabrmetrics?
3rdStrike
8/26/2011-4:33pm at 4:33 pm (UTC -4)
John Stottlemyre or Todd Stottlemyre? Pelf’s stats and scouting report are similar to Todd’s. I can’t even find a John Stottlemyre on baseball-reference.com
Andrew
8/26/2011-5:12pm at 5:12 pm (UTC -4)
Niese is a lot, lot better than Pelfrey. They really can’t be compared.
Anonymous
8/26/2011-5:44pm at 5:44 pm (UTC -4)
I think Pelf is better at 4 or maybe 3 in the rotation. I think Niese could be a 2 or 3 – I also don’t think Pelf as closer is tht crazy an idea.
Anonymous
8/26/2011-6:27pm at 6:27 pm (UTC -4)
Could have done without the explatives but other than that a good article and very well researched.I like the player but he leacks mental staboility in pressure situations which is a heck of problem to have pitching in New York City. As for John Niese , i think he is overall much more sound mentally and has already shown great maturity this year. Though Pelfrey has undoubtedly faltered there is no inherent need to judge all young mets pitchers as undoubted headcases who will pitch one good season and falter every start afterward…..Have some faith in what we have though it may not be much right now.