Will Angel Pagan be a Met in 2012?
Mets fans have already begun speculation about the upcoming offseason. After all, there’s not much drama left in this season, besides finding out how many more times Nick Evans will be designated for assignment, or if Chris Capuano will let his arm hair grow out. Two of the prominent names that have been speculated about have been Mike Pelfrey (explored here by fellow TRDMer, Alex Spatt), and Angel Pagan.
Pagan is in the middle of a seemingly disappointing season in 2011, batting .268/.327/.391, with 7 HRs and 27 SBs. He also spent some time on the Disabled List in April/May. On top of this, he has committed glaring errors, mostly mental, in the field and on the bases, reverting to the stigmatic behavior that plagued him before his breakout season in 2010.
So the question is, tender a contract to Pagan, or non-tender Pagan, and seek a CF solution elsewhere? First, let’s take a closer look at Pagan’s season.
Angel was handed the CF job in Spring Training when Carlos Beltran volunteered to move to RF. Pagan got off to an abysmal start, overswinging and perhaps feeling the pressure of playing every day in New York. In 69 at bats in April, he hit .159 with only 3 extra-base hits. Then, he went on the DL with a strained oblique. He returned in May and went 9 for 21, then hit .300 in June. He struggled in the month of July, but has rebounded in August, posting a .363/.389/.549 line.
Mmmmmmm, tender contracts...
If you take away April and July, Pagan would be batting .340. But as Scotty said in Star Trek III, “If my grandmother had wheels, she’d be a wagon.”
So let’s compare Pagan’s numbers to his 2010 stats. Assuming he’ll have 100 more at bats from now until the end of the season, that would give him a little over 480 at bats. He had 579 ABs last year. Using 480 ABs as a given, Pagan would hit 10 HRs, 50+ RBIs, 25 2B, 4 3B, and 35 SB. Assuming he had 100 more at bats, he may have come close to equaling his offensive totals from 2010. If nothing else, it has been a respectable offensive season for an outfielder known for his athleticism and speed.
So, to tender or non-tender? That is the question. Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer spending outrageous fortune on a player who may not produce, or to take arms against a sea of free agents and Minor League prospects and hope they’ll contribute in 2012.
According to “baseball insiders,” if Pagan and the Mets go to arbitration, he would stand to win a $5MM salary for 2012. Going on numbers alone, and the prospect that Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Matt den Dekker will likely not be ready for the majors next year, and the fact that there aren’t too many superior options (Coco Crisp anyone?) on the trade/free agent market, it makes sense for the Mets to retain Angel Pagan.
The spectre of his bonehead mistakes haunt this decision. But at worst, Pagan is a fourth outfielder. At best, for the Moneyball Mets, he’s their best option in CF, barring a torrid Spring by a Nieuewnhuis or a den Dekker. It seems, warts and all, that Pagan is the CF of 2012. Until the Mets get back on their financial feet, they’ll have to gamble on players like Angel, and hope their luck doesn’t run out.
14 comments
N8genius
8/28/2011-1:05am at 1:05 am (UTC -4)
truly well crafted writing style….gives pleasure to the eyes…well done….more !
Paul J. Festa
8/28/2011-2:15am at 2:15 am (UTC -4)
*Takes a tiny bow*
Seriously, glad you liked it. It’s fun for me, anyway.
Anonymous
8/28/2011-1:17am at 1:17 am (UTC -4)
I said before the season that IMO Pagan is a fantastic 4th OF to have. Can play all 3 spots, start for a stretch when needed, and get plenty of ABs backing everyone up.
But, I think he is back for 1 more year, just because there really aren’t any seemingly viable options internally, and any external ones (at least the few that might be an upgrade) aren’t likely to save you any money anyhow.
So, 1 more year from Angel, and a goal to try and develop an alternative for 2013 as the season goes along.
TRS86
8/28/2011-1:43am at 1:43 am (UTC -4)
While I do not think Pagan is the longterm answer to me it is a no brained to bring him back. Boneheaded plays aside he is a decent hitter fielder and steals lots of bases. Who on the CF market are you going to get at that price better? Also to the point of 4thyou OF? On what teams? He would start for 75% of the NL teams and would have started for the Braves or Phillies before their recent acquisitions. I hope the Mets can do better but I don’t see it likely. Besides Pagan is nowhere near the problem. That would be Mr. Bay. They are almost to the point that he IS blocking players as Duda is NOT a RF. Not sure what you do with him but if they plan on getting better at all offensively and replacing Beltran production you have to get Bay out of the lineup let Duda be your RF and find a one year guy for Rf. At this point I would rather go with Fmart in Rf and Duda in Lf.
Bryan
8/28/2011-1:49am at 1:49 am (UTC -4)
Love the Hamlet line, that fit in perfectly.
As for Pagan, you’re right there isn’t much of an option but to bring him back unless you make a trade somehow. He’s younger than most of the CF free agents and I think has the talent to have a better year than most of them as well. And you’re right about Den Dekker and Nieuwenhuis, they’re not options for 2012. Den Dekker maybe later in the year, maybe; and I’m not sure how quick Kirk can get back to form after his shoulder injury.
Tommy2cat
8/28/2011-12:59pm at 12:59 pm (UTC -4)
Excellent article.
I think the Mets should explore some way to pry Adam Jones from the Baltimore Orioles. Some combination of Pelfrey, Pagan, Daniel Murphy & a prospect for Adam Jones and spare change. Thinking about Andrew McCutcheon, also, but we’re talking about sacrificing blue-chip prospects.
An infield of Wright, Reyes, Tejada/Turner/Havens, Davis/Evans and an outfield of Bay, Jones/McCutcheon & Duda would be a giant step forward. Most players are home grown & Jones is young enough to acclimate quickly.
Adam Jones would be an outstanding acquisition. He’s a centerfielder now, but as he progresses into his 30′s, he’d also be an outstanding rightfielder b/c he can cover ground and has a cannon for an arm.
Just a thought.
Anonymous
8/28/2011-1:53am at 1:53 am (UTC -4)
I’ve had this debate for years and I’ve always considered Pagan at best a 4th outfielder. He is what his record says he is. If we’re going to cherry pick months this year to paint a rosy picture of his stats then we could just as easily treat last year as his outlier season and not the norm or standard of expectations to set his ceiling. I really like(d) Angel as a good character guy but the “(d)” in like(d) has kind of kicked in with me since when we really needed him to step up and bat lead off with Jose down, he publically stated his preference to bat 5th in the lineup. Angel, buuballa, wtf? But, when the calendar flipped to August and with him struggling and his realizing he best kick it into gear to get some numbers up since it dawned on him he’s playing for a roster spot either here or somewhere next year, whalla, “sure I’ll hit first, and I’ll start raking” but his stellar baseball IQ continues to betray him with his getting deeked by Schneider and not running hard and not sliding into home the other night and getting tagged standing up, or his throws from the OF, or his circumventing the globe in search of some fly balls of late. While tremendously gifted athletically, and a good family man, sorry I’ve just never been sold on Angel. In a couple of games this will be his second season that he finally plays in over 100 games in a season. I’ve often debated that Angel is injury prone based on missed time over his career and maybe I was overly harsh in the past given his battles with colitis, but, do I really want the Mets to spend $5M for a 30 year outfielder who will be 31 during next year when I can suffer through seeing a kid 5 or 6 years younger make the same mental gaffes, cost a fraction of the price, and maybe get his career started during another building year. It’s also already been eluded to that he’s not a Sandy type guy so I don’t expect to see him back.
As for Pelf, I’ve already tagged him Big Poof and called him a Weak Minded Oversized Tomato Can this year, and while trying to be positive the second half of the year after some inner reflection after considering some valid points by TRS, I can’t get over that he’s still like a career 22 or so games under .500 against the NL east. That might not be such a big issue if not for the Mets residing in that NL east. I was a huge Pelf fan but I just don’t see him getting it done in the NL east, and while I’d have to keep a closer watch on this, I believe his velocity has been dropping. If you can move him in the offseason then move him and remove the last letter of what MF4D dubbed as MOP last year for the rotation. No more Maine, no more Ollie, no more Poof? maybe.
Oh, also another really good read. Really enjoying yours and Alex’s articles as the recent additions to the author’s list here.
TRS86
8/28/2011-1:59am at 1:59 am (UTC -4)
I still don’t agree on the 4th OF part. He is not an AS this year for sure. Take the last 3 seasons and average them together and see where he ranks for NL CF. That is certainly not cherry picking. Now before the Braves and Phillies recent moves tell me what teams in the NL he would not have started for. Not many.
Anonymous
8/28/2011-2:40am at 2:40 am (UTC -4)
By a quick check:
McCutchen – Pitt, Kemp – LA, Maybin – SD, Stubbs – Cinn, Rasmus while with Cards, add these to the Braves and Phils and over the other 14 NL teams he could start for half of them imo, the lower half, so do I really need a lower half CF’r? Is there that much upside on a rebuilding team?
Also, if I factor in the last 3 years then he only played in 88 games in 2009 so I really don’t see the upside of that exercise. Which kind of goes into my factoring as injury prone. Granted, his injury that year was on selling out to make a catch so that is endearing.
He’s a nice player, but for me not a must have player for a rebuilding franchise. And not at 31 and $5M.
Paul Festa
8/27/2011-11:31pm at 11:31 pm (UTC -4)
The problem is, McCutchen is past his prime, Kemp is unobtainable, Maybin has had one good season, Stubbs is a nice player, and Rasmus isn’t going anywhere. Retaining Pagan is more practical than obtaining someone else.
Paul Festa
8/28/2011-2:15pm at 2:15 pm (UTC -4)
Actually, I meant McClouth, not McCutchen.
SaltyGary
8/28/2011-12:06pm at 12:06 pm (UTC -4)
Angel is a “Person Against Goodness and Normalcy” and should be removed from the team immediately. Complete waste of ARB money.
Anonymous
8/28/2011-4:26pm at 4:26 pm (UTC -4)
Thank God it’s Friday, says the Virgin Connie Swail.
SaltyGary
8/28/2011-9:21pm at 9:21 pm (UTC -4)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtKUyfkBA2w