Tonights Lineup

3 comments

1. 

   SaltyGary

   9/14/2011-9:04pm at 9:04 pm (UTC -4)

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   ESPN Inside Article:

   Time to say goodbye to Bay

   By Matt MeyersESPN Insider

   After a loss Tuesday night, the New York Mets are now 24½ games out of first place, and today on ESPN Insider we kiss them goodbye. Still, some positive signs remain for 2012 and beyond. Johan Santana seems to be making progress with his rehab starts in the minors, so a return to health could be on the horizon. Promising first baseman Ike Davis does not require foot surgery, which bodes well. Best of all, Jason Bay is hitting .266/.336/.477 since Aug. 1. Sure, it’s not exactly what the Mets were hoping for when they gave him a four-year, $66 million contract prior to the 2010 season, but it might be the best six-week stretch he’s had since joining the club and reason to believe he could at least earn some of that cash.

   However, Bay’s recent revival could be the worst thing that could happen to the Mets, because it might actually give the front office enough reason to talk itself into keeping Bay around for the life of the contract.

   Why is this a bad thing? Because as good as his past 140 plate appearances have been — and let’s be honest, they’re still not that good — we have another 700 PAs as a Met that suggest he is toast. Not to mention the fact much of the recent damage he is doing is against pitchers who were called up when rosters expanded on Sept. 1, and are of Triple-A caliber. Having lived through the Roberto Alomar experience, Mets fans are quite familiar with the idea that good players can suddenly lose it in their early 30s, which is what appears to have happened with Bay. And even if he somehow can manage an .800 OPS in 2012, the Mets are still better off without him.

   If the Mets keep Bay, he will stay in left field with Lucas Duda in right field. And while Bay is a poor defensive outfielder, Duda makes him look like Roberto Clemente. If the Mets are to compete for the wild card in 2012 — which is not entirely unreasonable if Jose Reyes re-signs and Santana and Davis are healthy — they can’t do it with Bay and Duda in the same outfield. The club has a pitch-to-contact staff, and a big part of the reason it has struggled this season is because of the poor defense on the field.

   It is by no coincidence that Mike Pelfrey’s good and bad seasons have paralleled the quality of the Mets’ defense. This season, he has a 4.66 ERA and the Mets are 26th in baseball in defensive efficiency. And in 2009, when he had a 5.03 ERA, the Mets ranked 19th. Yet in 2008 and 2010, the two seasons in which his ERA was below 4.00, New York ranked seventh and fourth, respectively. Based on advanced fielding metrics, Bay is mediocre at best and putrid at worst, and he is well past the point in his career where he hits well enough to justify putting up with his lack of range in left. The Mets could easily go find a slick-fielding replacement on the cheap, such as former Met Endy Chavez, to replace him, and give their staff the type of defense it needs.

   Even in a best-case scenario, Bay is no better than an average player next year, and the Mets need to start looking toward their future. Duda, who is 25 years old and has a .278/.349/.466 line with the Mets this year after crushing Triple-A the past two seasons, has shown he is a major league-caliber hitter. However, Duda is not an effective right fielder. So with first base blocked by Davis, the Mets need to find a way to put him in left because he can be a nice, cost-controlled solution there for the next five years. In right, he’s a liability. In left, he’s an asset.

   Beyond the on-field issues, there is a compelling financial reason for the Mets to let their left fielder walk. When negotiating Bay’s contract, former Mets GM Omar Minaya gave him a $17 million option for 2014 that vests if he reaches 600 plate appearances in 2013, or 500 PAs in both 2012 and 2013. New GM Sandy Alderson has done a nice job of clearing some salary this season, and it would be a disaster for New York if that option vests. If Bay is underperforming now, imagine how he will perform in 2014. And if you’re an eternal optimist who thinks Bay is about to turn things around, keep in mind the following: The most comparable players to him at this point in his career according to the ZiPS projection system are Woodie Held, Don Lock, Ron Gant, Mark Whiten, Adam Hyzdu and Larry Herndon. (Actually, if you’re an eternal optimist, you’re probably not a Mets fan.)

   If Bay continues as poorly as he has for most of this season, the Mets can justifiably put him on the bench and the option won’t vest. However, if he puts up a .750 OPS, it will be a lot harder for the Mets to keep him off the field, even if his overall production — when you factor in the high offensive standard for left fielders and his poor defense — is well below average. And if the Mets tried to bench him in order to avoid the option, Bay would be able to file a grievance with the union and likely win. (Mets fans dealt with a similar scenario earlier this year with Francisco Rodriguez, who was also given a questionable vesting option by Minaya.)

   This last scenario would be the worst of all worlds: A below-average player who you can’t bench due to an option that is sure to vest because he is playing just well enough not to be benched.

   Alderson already showed he’s not afraid to cut bait on underperfoming veterans with big contracts when he cut Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo in spring training. The money on Bay is spent, and the Mets should just treat it as a sunk cost and just tell Bay, “Sorry, but this just didn’t work out.” Considering his performance to date as a Met (.721 OPS), it would be hard to say they aren’t acting in the best interest of the club. Furthermore, they have a replacement in waiting and they cannot let that option vest. While it’s not easy to release a veteran like Bay, who is respected throughout the game, it’s the best thing to do for the future of the franchise.

   Matt Meyers is an General Editor for ESPN The Magazine and ESPN Insider, where he has coordinated and contributed to the baseball coverage since 2008. Previously, he has worked at Baseball America magazine and CBS College Sports.

   1. 

      TRS86

      9/15/2011-1:50am at 1:50 am (UTC -4)

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      While I am no longer on Bay’s side… what a garbage article full of basically nothing.  Bay’s defense has been one of the actual bright sides for sure.  He has shown to be a very solid and competent LF.  However, for the sake of the team he will need to move to RF to accommodate Duda. 

      Also, does the author even suggest at all what the alternative to keeping Bay is?  Releasing him with 50M left on his contract?  Sending him for another bad contract?  Eating 40M to trade him?  One of the things that people often forget that while Luis and Ollie were cancers Bay has shown no sign of being anything but a professional his entire career.  Assuming you can get no value other than having him off the team you are much better off keeping him around on the bench at worst in a platoon with the oft injured Fmart to start the season until you know what you have in Fmart or can find a replacement either internally or externally.  Considering financial issues, trying to eat the cash owed Bay AND pay money for a replacement is just not likely to happen.

2. 

   Anonymous

   9/14/2011-9:42pm at 9:42 pm (UTC -4)

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   Given the team is fading fast this homestand, again, I lobby that the post of the daily lineup should be changed to “Tonights Suspects” for the remainder of the season.