Not only Sandy Alderson and the Mets will have the Reyes Dilemma to deal with this off-season.
Easily one of the top 3 FA this off-season, factoring in his position on defense he could be the top target for countless teams. Jose is one point behind in the batting race for the NL and is in his prime playing a prime position. So where is the dilemma?
Obviously with Reyes, he is going to get a high dollar amount per year. No matter what the deal, factor in 16-22M per year. The question becomes how many years? Since returning from the disabled list for the 2nd time this year with leg injuries his line looks as follows.
.299 BA .716 OPS 4 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 10 BB, 10 K, 2 RBI in 98 PA. Factor that over around 700 PA and you get a season of 28 2B, 0 3b, 0 HR, 70 BB, 70 K, 14 RBI…. Yeah some of those numbers are likely to change. You would have to have more RBI assuming that many hits and he would luck into a HR here and there. More concerning though are the stats that make Reyes who he is. 2B, 3B and SB. Clearly the Mets and Reyes are at this point in full protection mode saying so openly.
Assuming Reyes gets a deal around 6/110 million can a team afford to have that much money wrapped up in something that may have to be wrapped in bubble wrap to keep in the lineup? Look I am the first to point out how Reyes was an iron man for years 2005-2008. However, heading into 2012 Reyes has not played a full season since. Now Reyes is back but is either holding himself back or being held back.
While replacing Reyes would be difficult for sure, when looking at total production for the season is it as hard as we think?
Here is Erick Aybar’s stats for the year:
| Year | Age | Lg | G | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BA | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 27 | AL | 137 | 580 | 67 | 151 | 33 | 8 | 10 | 29 | 5 | .282 | .752 |
If Aybar was a FA what type of contract would he get? Obviously no where near as much as Reyes. However, would the money spent on him combined with the money saved from Reyes and spent on pitching produce a better result?
Aybar is not a FA this year and may not be for a while as he is entering his final arbitration year and I would expect an extension. Aybar is not the point. The question remains, can a team other than the Angels, Sox, Yankees, Phillies… your near luxury tax or over teams afford to tie up such a large percentage of their salary to a player that has to be protected? That could average only 100 games a year healthy or 120 games playing at less than full-speed?
This type of question pains me to ask. I love Jose Reyes and the energy he brings when healthy. I have spent 9 years of my life watching him in awe of his ability. However, as we have always said the Mets are paying Sandy to make tough decisions not necessarily popular decisions.
Ask yourself this question, would this team be better with Tejada at SS with an additional Closer and SP replacing Reyes salary? Not just for 2012 but for 2012-2017?
22 comments
MetsFan4Decades
9/23/2011-1:30pm at 1:30 pm (UTC -4)
…”would this team be better with Tejada at SS with an additional Closer
and SP replacing Reyes salary? Not just for 2012 but for 2012-2017?’
Who knows? I certainly don’t. It’s all a crap shoot. You can point out projections, compile stats, use graphs, etc….but when all is said and done, that more established/expensive closer or SP might not work out any better than rolling the dice, ponying up and paying Reyes. Closers as a whole (Mo aside) can be very streaky – take Lidge, for example. SP can have health problems, even if young. They also can put up a crappy year just as much as they can put up 3 solid years in a row. And god forbid that roll of the dice has Reyes walking and that money spent on pieces that don’t work out, especially in ’12.
II don’t know what the best answer is. I do know I’d rather see Jose Reyes in a Met uniform next year. And very shortly, we’re all going to find out just what Sandy’s mindset on this is.
SaltyGary
9/23/2011-1:45pm at 1:45 pm (UTC -4)
If the Mets re-sign Reyes to what is speculated, it has a real chance to be the worst contract the organization has ever given.
I think it’s more fair to use his pre/post ASG splits. It has more truth to what the issue is instead of choosing to look at his production after his second stint.
AB H D T SB Avr OPS
350 124 22 15 30 .354 .927
165 46 8 1 6 .279 .706
Its a tale of 2 Reyes and it’s been this way consistently for 3 years. When he is healthy he is great. When he is hurt he not only goes on DL stints but then it lingers for months. We all love the first half of this year but how many historic streaks does he have?
Ceetar
9/23/2011-3:30pm at 3:30 pm (UTC -4)
Every single contract ever signed has the chance to be the worst contract ever.
There is no dilemma. sign him, or suffer.
SaltyGary
9/23/2011-4:01pm at 4:01 pm (UTC -4)
How is there no dilemma? This is a lifetime .290 hitter with a crappy k/bb ratio whose entire game is built around speed. His career is filled with injuries that take his defining quality away. Those injuries have kept him out of 200 games in 3 years and he has never been able to recover to standard playing form until resting fully in the off-season. No speed and the guy is just another average player that shouldn’t make more than 4m a year.
It’s more “like sign him and suffer” with more of the same mistakes that continue to haunt this team.
Ceetar
9/23/2011-5:47pm at 5:47 pm (UTC -4)
I think you mean he’s a lifetime .779 OPSer at SS with Gold Glove caliber defense, an excellent K/BB ratio and a power threat from a normally slap-hitting position.
Taking it easy for a team not in the race he’s still competing for a batting title and playing well above average SS.
But you’re right, let’s just let the best players in the game walk away for cheap prospects whose ceiling is probably Reyes’ floor. That’s how you build a winner.
SaltyGary
9/23/2011-9:02pm at 9:02 pm (UTC -4)
Well if you feel he is taking it easy and not hurt you should be even more pissed. At least when he’s making his 20m he can afford his Dr. Andrews bills.
SaltyGary
9/23/2011-9:05pm at 9:05 pm (UTC -4)
Daily News Headline “Reyes signs, Tears Hamstring while Celebratory Dancing”.
MetsFan4Decades
9/23/2011-2:05pm at 2:05 pm (UTC -4)
On that note, over on MLBTR:
Tim Lincecum Prefers Short-Term Deals
Wish most established star type would have this mindset.
Anonymous
9/23/2011-3:23pm at 3:23 pm (UTC -4)
It appears that the deck is stacked against the Mets resigning Reyes. The payroll is burdened with the contacts of Santana, Bay and Wright that when coupled with the Wilpon’s financial problems will preclude them from matching offers that Reyes will get. Reyes is valuable to a contender that believes he’s the missing piece to a championship. I can see the RedSox and even the Yankees making an offer to Reyes. The Yankees may decide that it’s time to move Jeter to the outfield (and I understand he’s a natural out there, something like Tony Kubek that when temporarily moved from SS to the outfield showed to be the best defensive outfielder on the club). And Reyes may very well make the decision that he wants to move to a contender next season. Now there are some people out there that believe that if half the Phillies team falls into a sink hole while half the Braves team follows in the steps of Cat Stevens’ and are next seen begging on the streets of Tehran while a UFO lands and presents the Mets with a mythical pitcher the Mets will contend. Reyes may not see it that way and may move on no matter what the Mets offer him. So the Mets may very well not be on the horns of a dilemma.
Darknova306
9/23/2011-5:56pm at 5:56 pm (UTC -4)
Right now the Mets are not contenders because of pitching and defense. If Reyes plays for someone else next season, the Mets will still be non-contenders because of pitching and defense. The timeline for contending is pretty much the same with or without him. I’d rather not see huge money and years being put into a balky hammy on a guy whose game is based mostly on his legs.
Anonymous
9/23/2011-11:13pm at 11:13 pm (UTC -4)
I’d like him back if the deal isn’t a back breaker otherwise I’ve resigned myself to moving on. I see the 16-22M value being cited here and I just don’t see that either, not with the injuries derailing him again this year. I see 8-12 tops and at 4 for 48 or 5 for 60 I’d sign him up. The injuries and the economy are going to conspire against the $20M per year neighborhood imo. The waiting game is almost upon us.
Anonymous
9/24/2011-1:05am at 1:05 am (UTC -4)
Alas, Jose is going, and his money is not going to be spent elsewhere.
Like the blind squirrel who eventually finds a nut, the day of the Nabobs has arrived.
The Wilpons are not getting 200 mil from Einhorn, and soon a trial date for the Madoff denouement will be set.
The team has $55 mil committed to three players who are shells of their former selves in Johan, Bay, and Wright.
They have, by pretty much all estimates, about another 55–65 mil to spend on the rest of the team.
Reyes is gone, and remember, Jose and Beltran WERE the offense when the team was going 50–38 for a while this year. And the pen instantly imploded when KRod left.
It’s going to get much, much worse before it gets better.
Yes, it was fun to be an optimist and I am sure I will be again someday. But this team has not bottomed out yet. That will begin the day Jose signs with PHIL/BOS/WASH/ANA/SF/ETC. Which he undoubtedly will.
TRS86
9/24/2011-3:18am at 3:18 am (UTC -4)
Let him sign there for 7 years and hamstring their organization like Crawford and Lackey have this year.
Anonymous
9/24/2011-1:43am at 1:43 am (UTC -4)
If that is the case, and he does walk, I hope the go after CJ Wilson.
That IF he does walk. No Jose, invest in CJ. I’d sign a vet to backup
SS, and role with Tejada. 2B would be Turner/Murph.
Look, next year is still a transition year. Other than Reyes or CJ
Wilson, I can’t see anyone that the team would have money for that would
be a longer term investment that is worth it. Pujols stays with the
Cards, Fielder to the Cubs, CC with the Yanks. After that, there is
slop out there. And honestly, I don’t see them being aggressive for CJ
either. If Reyes walks, it’s going to be bleak for a year or 2 until
the kids step up. Tejada can hold his own, but he’s can fill Reyes’
dancing shoes.
Anonymous
9/24/2011-1:53am at 1:53 am (UTC -4)
Was looking at the 2013 FAs, just for giggles. CF and SP are stacked.
CF
Bourne
Kemp
Victorino
Upton
SP
Grienke
Cain
Danks
Hamels
Liriano
Lewis
Marcum
McCarthy
Sanchez
Lohse
Anonymous
9/24/2011-3:11am at 3:11 am (UTC -4)
the two positions we need most!
Anonymous
9/24/2011-3:06am at 3:06 am (UTC -4)
I could care less how many years they sign him for or how much money he will make.
At no point in my Mets fandom will I every complain about Jose or David’s contract even if its year 7 and he’s on the DL and batting .225.
I’ve never cared about his contract before this season and I really dont care about it after either. Jason Bay, now that’s another story…
TRS86
9/24/2011-3:16am at 3:16 am (UTC -4)
They are so related though. Fact is the Mets payroll will be 110m ish. Thus if you do not care how much Reyes makes then you also do not care if they add any other talent as well.
Anonymous
9/24/2011-1:02pm at 1:02 pm (UTC -4)
Its related in the short term but the Mets are not going anywhere in 2012 and likely 2013 either so whether we have room for other players is not that important. By the time our pitching staff is good enough to compete Bay and Santana’s contracts will be off the books.
Once the Mets start winning again and the fans start showing up the payroll will gradually move up as well and we’ll eventually have a 140-150 mil payroll again
Anonymous
9/24/2011-1:32pm at 1:32 pm (UTC -4)
It does make sense, but there is so little flexibility in what finances they do have.
Anonymous
9/24/2011-4:25pm at 4:25 pm (UTC -4)
i truly believe that if the Mets had a very good team and the stadium was packed every game then this whole Madoff thing would not even be an issue.
Dave Koffer
9/24/2011-7:37am at 7:37 am (UTC -4)
I think if you’re the Mets and for their fans, you MUST re-sign Reyes!!