It may not have happened the way everyone wanted but like it or not, Jose Reyes is your 2011 NL batting champion. I’ll admit I’m sick of all the fuss over how it went down but at the end of the day, what’s done is done. I’m not here to tell you it was right or wrong but somehow I’m not surprised that this is how the Mets found their first batting title. The real question is what to take away from the season Reyes just had, as a whole.
By now you’ve read everything. You’ve read that Reyes is selfish, that guys who know him maintain he isn’t, and that Jose pulling himself from that last game was the worst thing to happen in sports since this picture of Terry Francona was taken. At the end of the day though, the Mets need to look at Reyes and decide what kind of value he really is.
The positives seem fairly obvious, but I’ll go over them quickly in case anyone blacked out after the first half of the season. Though it seems eminently unlikely he or anyone else will play another half season, nevermind an entire one, the way Reyes did the first half of this year, it is difficult to put a tangible value on something so sublime. He was the MVP of that first half without any doubt. He single-handedly kept the Mets respectable. There was no pitching – Dickey was still struggling, Gee hadn’t yet arrived, Pelfrey was still allowed on a Major League mound – and there was no offense as Ike and Wright were out while Murphy had yet to morph into his .320 self. And yet there the Mets were, with Jose to thank. Reyes looked to be playing not just for a contract, but for the team that brought him up and the fans that cheered him on all the while.
The negatives all came in the second half. The all-too-familiar injury bug hit Reyes again, forcing him to finish the season with just 126 games played, his second-lowest total since 2005. With the injury came a marked decline in extra-base hits and steals as well as his first slumps of the year. He looked to be pushing a bit more, taking bigger swings, and not real confident in legging everything out. And then the last game happened.
Let me first say that, prior to the game, Reyes mentioned that at this point, with no life left in the season, the batting title became important to him. He wanted it. This seemed refreshingly honest. For all the times we want our players to give the company line and claim that their own accomplishments mean nothing to them lest the team win, I find it hard to believe that the hardest working, most competitive people in a given profession don’t care about personal accomplishments. So credit to Reyes where it’s due. However, that Reyes pulled himself showed me something I had long suspected.
Reyes wasn’t doing it for the Mets or for us, their loyal fans. He wasn’t doing it for Terry Collins or Sandy Alderson any more than you did your job for them. He was doing it because he has one huge payday in him and because he can. I don’t blame him for that, but it tells me something about what kind of effort to expect from him down the line, whether he’s entirely selfless or the anti-Ted Williams.
Many people will point to this season to show Reyes’ true value. I believe this is a good way to look at it, but not the way it is going to be done. Jose Reyes is not the player we saw the first half of this season. That was a Jose Reyes we have never seen before and, because of the perfect storm of influences, will never see again. At least not for that long. He was 100% healthy, 100% motivated, had everything to gain, and nothing to lose. He’s always been that talented but to think he could be so motivated for 5 to 7 years is simple disillusionment.
However, if Reyes lost $10-15 million by missing 36 games this season, he made a lot of it back by winning the batting title. It’s stupid, but it’s true. That he can walk into any contract negotiation as the 2011 batting champ is no small bargaining chip and his price tag could be driven up considerably. Debate the merits of batting average all you want, but it goes a long way for a team’s front office to tell its fans they signed the reigning batting champ. No one remembers who finished second in the batting race any more than anyone remembers who lost the Super Bowl. It’s just one of those things.
That being said, I believe the Mets are damned no matter how this goes. As the player he is in his average season, Reyes is still a top-5 shortstop and likely in the $90-$100 million range given the inflated market and the assumption of a 5-year deal. He is more likely to go in looking for $120 with the expectation that it could go higher.
The Mets should stick to a ceiling of $100 million over 5 years because that’s what he’s worth. Unfortunately, I don’t believe that contract will be enough to get Reyes to sign and that leads to two equally undesirable outcomes. Outcome A is another team signs Reyes to a monster deal because the Mets don’t budge, rightfully so. Nevertheless, this kills the fans, turns them against the front office, and creates a huge hole in the field and at the top of the lineup. Outcome B is the Mets give in and offer somewhere around $120 million over 6 years. This creates an albatross of a contract and locks up a ton of money in a player who can’t be trusted to be worth such an investment. Damned if we do, damned if we don’t. Either way, Reyes won’t play at a level deserving of anything more than his original, true $100 million value, no matter what team he’s on.
The only comparable player to Reyes is Carl Crawford and, you’ll recall, the early returns on that deal are part of the reason his manager was fired. The Mets have thus far been astute in their decision making but this is an entirely different scenario than any faced by this group yet. I can only hope Sandy Alderson handles it with the same grace Reyes showed all season and doesn’t cave like Reyes, at the last minute, in Game 162.
25 comments
Sf
10/2/2011-12:00am at 12:00 am (UTC -4)
He needs to move on and so do the Mets. Tejada becomes the SS and they should sign a good to excellent 2B in free agency along with a new CF. Flip Murphy or even Wright for a better pitching corps and they’re in good shape for the next few years.
Anonymous
10/2/2011-1:55am at 1:55 am (UTC -4)
pretty sure there aren’t any good to excellent 2Bs in FA, but maybe.
anyway, I bet the 2B guy is going to come from the large number of in house options.
Anonymous
10/2/2011-11:58am at 11:58 am (UTC -4)
Agreed. 2B will be Murphy/Turner until Havens can take it over, based on the assumption that Tejada is SS.
MetsFan4Decades
10/2/2011-1:09am at 1:09 am (UTC -4)
Damned if you do and damned if you don’t is a good way to sum this up.
I’m still leaning towards Reyes signs somewhere else. I don’t think he’s going to take the offer the Mets make during the exclusive window they have. You have to believe his agent is strongly encouraging him to file for FA. And when that happens, I have to believe there will be 1 or 2 GMs who will throw out the type of offer that equals overpaying. Happens every off season with a couple of players. Don’t think it will be any different this year.
I’m not going to be surprised when it happens but I will be disappointed. If I thought he’d take 5/100, we’d have a good shot but sadly don’t think that’s going to do it.
Anonymous
10/2/2011-1:57am at 1:57 am (UTC -4)
probably he does go to FA. And odds are, he will never live up to his contract, since many (most?) huge $ FAs don’t. At least the ones that aren’t true superstars.
MetsFan4Decades
10/2/2011-2:48am at 2:48 am (UTC -4)
I wonder if any of these FA players are looking at these long term contracts some have gotten lately and not lived up to thinking….’that could happen to me’. Maybe some of them will start to think market value for their talents isn’t so bad. I mean it’s millions and millions of dollars even if market value and the pressure of not trying to live up to an over paid contract has to be so much less.
Anonymous
10/2/2011-3:16am at 3:16 am (UTC -4)
pro athletes tend to have big egos. They have been fawned over and told they were special since they were little, so of course they believe it!
So no, I doubt any of them think that way. And even if they did, they are still taking the jumbo contract.
Doesn’t mean they don’t regret it at some point, but they still cash the checks.
same logic with these guys never knowing when to quit I think.
MetsFan4Decades
10/2/2011-2:48am at 2:48 am (UTC -4)
Stupid Rays.
Stupid Tigers.
Anonymous
10/2/2011-3:14am at 3:14 am (UTC -4)
I hate the Phillies.
Anonymous
10/2/2011-12:06pm at 12:06 pm (UTC -4)
The more and more I look at this whole thing, the more and more my mind is being warped against re-signing Reyes. Between the money/years, the injury issue, the best season in a walk year… I am thinking this team is better served in throwing their money at CJ Wilson, sliding Tejada over to short, and rolling with the multiple headed monster at 2B for now.
I’m not anti-Reyes by any manner, but trying to think what would be best for the name on the front of the jersey, not the back.
& I’m not worried about the “albatross” of a contract. Most of the big contracts are coming off the books in a year or two, and Reyes’ contract will only start to be bad in year 4-ish, one would assume. I’m more worried about the deficiencies in the SP rotation.
Anonymous
10/2/2011-12:15pm at 12:15 pm (UTC -4)
I can live either way. The key I think is if reyes goes, to stay far away from every Mets related site (other than this one of course).
Reyes is an interesting test of the “lock up your stars” theory. On the surface, he has the reputation, and is the right age, for a 5 year big deal, but when you dig deeper, is it justified?
By that, I mean for a team on some sort of budget (even a 110-120 ill one), has to be very careful about committing a huge % of payroll to 1 guy, since (as Sandy has said) you can really only have a couple of them. And is Jose, based on recent history (2 off/hurt years followed by a couple of big months followed by more leg problems and a mostly mediocre finish), really the guy you want to jump into bed with?
Set aside the fact that he grew up here for a minute. If the Mets had Tejada as the starting SS today, and Jose was a FA from another team, would people be advocating breaking the bank to sign him away from the Angels or Rangers? If not, why should the Mets be doing it just because he started here?
And that is basically the equation Sandy has to be weighing right now.
Anonymous
10/2/2011-9:14pm at 9:14 pm (UTC -4)
What makes you think the money saved will be spent on a FA pitcher? The money saved may simply be used to help the Wilpons escape their financial mess.
Anonymous
10/2/2011-10:38pm at 10:38 pm (UTC -4)
If it is reyes, we will either find out real soon, or never know!
at some point, they can’t keep just gutting payroll. Even a dope like Selig will step in at some point.
given where the team is at the moment, 100-110 while they rebuild the foundation makes a lot of reasonable sense. And if the owners can’t handle that, then they should be forced to remove themselves.
I’m just not expecting to see the payroll drop below that level anytime soon.
Anonymous
10/2/2011-10:54pm at 10:54 pm (UTC -4)
Because we aren’t the Royals.
Anonymous
10/3/2011-1:08am at 1:08 am (UTC -4)
Its not a question of whether they’re the Royals or not. And BTW the Royals owners are not in the financial mess the Mets owners are now and if the team doesn’t win they will start to draw closer to the Royals level. It’s also not a question of whether the Wilpons are cheap as some suggest. The Wilpons financial problems preclude them from spending at the level they may otherwise spend. You can’t spend what you don’t have and getting loans right now could be very difficult.
Anonymous
10/2/2011-5:17pm at 5:17 pm (UTC -4)
Am I the only one who doesn’t think that losing Reyes is the end of the world?
Anonymous
10/2/2011-6:12pm at 6:12 pm (UTC -4)
no, you aren’t the only one.
one positive of losing Reyes is that maybe some of the truly annoying “fans” that post on some sites will follow through, and stop following the team. Clear out the dead wood!
Darknova306
10/2/2011-6:23pm at 6:23 pm (UTC -4)
We can only hope…
Anonymous
10/2/2011-9:12pm at 9:12 pm (UTC -4)
Of course as well as not frequenting the blogs these fans will not attend any games and the Wilpons will have less resources to operate with and the payroll will drop even further. If this results in forcing the Wilpons into selling the team then I say to these fans stay home. But if it just results in the Mets putting a weaker product on the field then we need these fans. So be careful what you wish for.
Darknova306
10/2/2011-9:43pm at 9:43 pm (UTC -4)
Of course that also assumes that these fans are a large enough part of the ticket-buying population to matter, which we have no clue about.
Anonymous
10/2/2011-10:33pm at 10:33 pm (UTC -4)
well, based on what many of the truly obnoxious ones post, they aren’t going to the games now, so no loss!
Anonymous
10/2/2011-10:48pm at 10:48 pm (UTC -4)
That’s not really the case. In NY when the baseball team is pathetic only the hard core fans attend the games (those and the ones getting free tickets) and generally the ball park is mostly empty. When the team wins the ball park repeatedly sells out (except in Tampa Bay, Atlanta and some other venues) and the majority of those fans can be labeled as fair weather fans. So these fans have a significant impact on attendance. As proof look at the Mets attendance during the years they were successful versus the years they were pathetic. Also look at the Yankees attendance during the CBS years. And don’t forget that one year that Steinbrenner wanted to move the Yankees to New Jersey.
Anonymous
10/2/2011-10:14pm at 10:14 pm (UTC -4)
Then the money they save on Reyes contract should be used to hire the entire TB scouting staff. Unfortunately building a successful scouting staff and being successful in the draft is not a trivial pursuit. If it was all teams would do it. You could just as easily end up with a team like the Pirates. People also forget that for the first 10 years of their existence the Rays had a losing record every year. It changed when new ownership took over but the seeding of the minors that resulted in the present stockpile of young talent took a long time to develop. People also forget that even an outstanding executive such as Frank Cashen, he who was the architect of the mid to late 1980s teams, left the well pretty much dry when he retired. So there is a fair amount of luck involved.
Anonymous
10/2/2011-10:36pm at 10:36 pm (UTC -4)
you are always going to have boom and bust cycles. And once the young guys click, then you go all in and get the other players needed, even if it means gutting the farm a bit. Cashen did it, the Phils just did it.
a chance for a couple big years and some titles doesnt come around that often, so when it is staring you in the face, go for it.
Anonymous
10/3/2011-1:14am at 1:14 am (UTC -4)
You should be delighted. The bleeping Eagles lost again and the Giants somehow pulled out a game that looked lost. It seems the offense performs better late in the game when Eli starts calling his own plays in a hurry up mode.
BTW I’m hoping against hope that the Mets somehow keep Reyes. Players of Reyes’ talent at his position are rare and difficult to replace. Having him will speed up the retooling process and without him I would consider the Mets in a total rebuilding phase.