Last Friday Joe D the owner of Metsmerizedonline which is one of the most popular and longest running Mets fan sites on the net wrote a post titled “Have Our Priorities Shifted From Winning To Something Else?”
In it he touched on his concern that many fans “have become too conscious and maybe even obsessed with keeping the Wilpon’s profit margins fat” as opposed to just focusing on winning. He used CJ Wilson as an example of a player you would think Mets fans would be totally on board for but apparently are not due to as the title of his post suggested, a switching of priorities from winning to something else.
My comment to Joe D was that that for me it was not about keeping the Wilpon’s profit margins fat but rather the acceptance that there is a budget the Mets are operating in so the cost to sign Wilson doesn’t make his signing look to be a possibility.
Joe D’s reply was that even with the reported budget of $110M for 2012 Reyes and Wilson can be had if you got rid of the dead dollars of Pelfrey and Capuano. Now agreed there are many ways to go about this and with so many unknown variables their is no 1 right way to do so. Having said that the following was my attempt to see if indeed signing both Reyes and Wilson is plausible with a $110M budget.
The Mets have 5 players with a combined salary of $60.45M under contract for 2012 they are Santana, Bay, Wright, Dickey and Carrasco. If the Mets for arguments sake were able to sign Reyes at a salary that paid him $20M in 2012 and were also able to sign Wilson at a salary that paid him $15M for 2012 the Mets payroll would now be $95.45M committed to 7 players.
I know, I still have 18 roster spots to fill. For purposes of this post let’s say the following players barring trade would probably be on the roster. Jonathon Niese, Ike Davis, Daniel Murphy, Josh Thole, Lucas Duda and Pedro Beato. If they were to make their reported 2011 salaries and you again for sake of this conversation then added Dillon Gee, Justin Turner and Ruben Tejada at the league min salary that would come out to a combined $3,796,000 added to the existing payroll. Bringing it now to a total of $99,246,000 committed to 16 players. That would leave $10,754,000 of the so-called budget to go toward the addition of the remaining 9 players.
Remember this is without offering arbitration to Mike Pelfrey who could reportedly receive $5M to $6M in arbitration and Angel Pagan who along with Pelfrey has been speculated that they could cost a combined $10M in arbitration. Add to this the unknown cost it will take to sign a closer.
So no way Pelfrey and Pagan get offered arbitration cause $754K will not get you the remaining 7 players especially when the minimum yearly salary in 2011 was $414K.
That is as far as I got. Do you think the Mets can add a closer, rebuild the bullpen and find a center-fielder (since Pagan will probably not be offered arbitration) while filling the remaining 9 roster spots with $10,754,000? Do you have a better idea on how to possibly go about it? Let us know.
15 comments
Ceetar
10/18/2011-1:16pm at 1:16 pm (UTC -4)
CJ Wilson is a bad signing for most teams, the Mets included.
It’s a WFANesque suggestion, igoring the facts and situation the Mets are in.
Anonymous
10/18/2011-1:22pm at 1:22 pm (UTC -4)
Even the idea of signing Wilson is insane. He’ll be 31 in a month, has exactly two very good–not great–years under his belt, and giving him a $100 mil deal is utterly ridiculous.
It’s the ghost of the still-warm Omar Minaya tugging at the soul of this team.
They should not even consider Wilson for a second.
Be patient and wait for the minor league pitchers to develop.
And if you can somehow swing Pomeranz for Wright and have him AND Wheeler? DO it yesterday.
Mets Merized Online
10/19/2011-4:14am at 4:14 am (UTC -4)
How could you not consider him especially when he would be an upgrade over any current Mets pitcher and would give the team stability for 4 years until the youngsters are ready to contribute?
Nobody is saying Wilson is the end-all, only that it will upgrade a rotation that desperately needs it and will also help from taxing the bullpen and burning it out by mid July.
Wilson wont get mote than 4 years or 15MM and it’s not a huge investment or spending for sake of spending. His last two seasons (and only two seasons as a starter) have shown an ability the Mets have not had since Santana’s first two seasons.
Why sign Reyes, keep Wright and do nothing else? We finally improve the teams on-base, walks, runs scored and we’re just gonna hope that holds until 2014 when maybe Wheeler and Harvey are ready to contribute?
It’s been 26 years, I’m tired of waiting and $60 million offer to Wilson is not the worst thing in the world. If he wants more pass, but scratching your butt and doing nothing is hardly an improvement.
TRS86
10/18/2011-2:25pm at 2:25 pm (UTC -4)
The real probpem is not the money itself. It is the bad money or money wasted. This is where Sandy comes in. 110-120 is plenty enough to build around. It is contracts like Bay, Castillo, Perez and even Johan at this point that make signing a big name hard to do. However the better question is that line of thinking… signing the big name just because he fills a need and is a big name a winning philosophy? I think the Mets and Sandy have decided to go a different route . A direction that is so nonMets like that many will cry cheap and other remarks so famous. However looking at the new wave of winners shows it is not money but overall roster construction that wins championships.
MetsFan4Decades
10/18/2011-6:16pm at 6:16 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed with most all of this.
It’s all about how you spend the money. And just b/c a surplus might be burning a hole in your pocket doesn’t mean you have to spend it just now. If the acquisition fits, by all means do it. It think it’s called ‘discretionary’ spending, right?
TRS86
10/18/2011-2:25pm at 2:25 pm (UTC -4)
The real probpem is not the money itself. It is the bad money or money wasted. This is where Sandy comes in. 110-120 is plenty enough to build around. It is contracts like Bay, Castillo, Perez and even Johan at this point that make signing a big name hard to do. However the better question is that line of thinking… signing the big name just because he fills a need and is a big name a winning philosophy? I think the Mets and Sandy have decided to go a different route . A direction that is so nonMets like that many will cry cheap and other remarks so famous. However looking at the new wave of winners shows it is not money but overall roster construction that wins championships.
Mr North Jersey
10/18/2011-2:49pm at 2:49 pm (UTC -4)
I was hoping the conversation would revolve more on how plausible is it to add both a Reyes & Wilson and fielding a 25 man roster within the so-called budget but I understand the concern if he should even be signed to begin with.
It would not be hard to argue that Wilson would be an upgrade to the rotation that includes Pelfrey who may not be offered arbitration when all is said and done.
A valid question though as has already been expressed here is if the upgrade is worth say 5 years/$75M? Add to that the question of can Wilson do in NY what he has done the last 2 years in Texas or will he struggle similar to what has happened to Lackey out in Boston?
Ceetar
10/18/2011-3:14pm at 3:14 pm (UTC -4)
It’s plausible, but not wise. The upgrade is not worth that, no. They’ll look for less restricting options, but that doesn’t mean only Young/Cap type gutshot guys either. If they could swing a trade for a pretty good guy with 2-3 years of some money, i suspect they’ll do it.
Pelfrey will be offered arbitration with 99.9% certainty. Doesn’t mean he’ll throw another pitch for the Mets.
Mr North Jersey
10/18/2011-3:19pm at 3:19 pm (UTC -4)
Thx for the reply Ceetar. Let me ask you. What are your thoughts on say Edwin Jackson?
Ceetar
10/18/2011-6:01pm at 6:01 pm (UTC -4)
w/o looking, I think Edwin Jackson has some talent and would be very helpful and should be reasonably priced.
w/ looking..
He’s basically Mike Pelfrey, but can hit better. No thanks.
MetsFan4Decades
10/18/2011-6:17pm at 6:17 pm (UTC -4)
Thing is, affordable or not I’m not high on Wilson at all. I’d give that a pass.
Anonymous
10/18/2011-8:32pm at 8:32 pm (UTC -4)
if money was no object, yes I would like him.
If he was the equivalent of spending my entire allowance on 1 thing, then I would just as soon look elsewhere.
to me, he is a guy that you really need to find or develop on your own, and get the value years. Not the overpaid for what he did in the past years.
No reason to think Neise couldn’t end up being just as good as this guy.
Anonymous
10/18/2011-3:33pm at 3:33 pm (UTC -4)
Good article MNJ. I was thinking about this a while before posting. It can be done, but only if 1 of 3 things happen. Reyes defers some cahs or backloads his contract a little, they can move Bay (and pay 10Mil + to the person they trade to in order free up about 4 or 5 mil. or they move Wright.
Assuming they trade/non-tender Pelf, have to keep Pagan (because there isn’t anything else out there), re-sign Paulino, Sign Nathan at 4 mil per (or an incentive laden deal), they fill the remaining 8 spots with Pagan, Herrera, Nathan, Paulino, Fmart (rule 5 stuff), Parnell, Pridie, another BP arm. With Pagan at 5ish, Nathan at 4ish, Paulino at 1-ish and the remaining guys figuring another 2-3 mil, figure estimated salary at 113-115. So defer some of Reyes money or backload his contract and you’re at 110 mil.
Moving Bay would mean either Murph to the OF or Evans/Fmart or something. Basically allows the 110 mill range and doesn’t require deferred cash from Reyes.
Moving Wright would then have Reyes at SS, Tejada at 2B and Murphy at third with Turner doing time at both 2B and 3B. Frees up a bunch o’ cash and allows for a better BP arm or 2.
Anonymous
10/18/2011-8:37pm at 8:37 pm (UTC -4)
agreed about the first part.
Unless they move 1 big contract, you are only adding 1 8 figure FA.
Bay is a pipe dream (unless you eat so much it isn’t worth it) IMO. And Santana is wholly untradeable.
so that pretty much leaves Wright as the only guy making big $$ you could trade and actually clear salary.
Maybe you could dump enough other guys at medium money to clear space (Pelf, pagan), but in the end, is Wilson going to make the difference if you have to gut a bunch of veterans like that?
Too bad they don’t have some hot shot prospect beating on the door (say for 3B). Think about when the Phils traded Thome to make room for Howard. That would be the situation where you could get away with trading Wright and actually improving the team next year. Plugging in Murphy/Turner? Not gonna do it.
Mets Merized Online
10/19/2011-4:16am at 4:16 am (UTC -4)
Thanks for the kind words Mr. North Jersey.