And doesn't he look thrilled?
Last offseason, I had the privilege of attending the baseball winter meetings in Orlando for a seminar. Later, I hung around the hotel lobby (and bar – a great place to meet journalists) to see who I could talk to. Everyone I met could only talk about one thing: the 7-year $126 million deal the Washington Nationals handed to Jayson Werth. Journalists, bloggers, team employees and executives all lamented the inflated contract that was sure to raise the bar for the other free agents. Later that offseason, the Red Sox signed Carl Crawford to a 7-year $142 million contract, and Adrian Gonzalez to a 7-year $154 million contract. The bar was certainly raised.
So who will it be this year? Which team will overpay for a free agent, and inflate the price tag of those who remain?
Given their limited budget, it won’t be the Mets, and it won’t be for Jose Reyes. The Daily News reported that Sandy Alderson will not make an offer to the shortstop during the team’s exclusive signing window. Following that period, Reyes will be fair game for the rest of the league. So if the Mets aren’t going to set the market for Reyes, it’s possible a big (and irresponsible) spender will. If Reyes gets an offer more than 4 years/$100 million, the Mets aren’t likely to match it.
In addition, if someone offers a crazy amount of money to Jimmy Rollins, the market price for a shortstop like Reyes will climb as if he’s made of caviar.
Out of the big free agents, Albert Pujols is obviously going to get a massive deal, and perhaps become the highest paid player in the game. One could argue he deserves it. After all, he is the best player in the game today. But what about other notable free agents?
C.J. Wilson? A nice LHP, but he’s 30 years old, has only been starting for two years, and he’s thrown over 400 innings over that time. It wouldn’t make sense to give him a long-term deal. But he might get one, considering he is among the top free agents at his position. Rollins is 32, and has been showing signs of decline, and an inability to stay healthy. These, and other free agents, are good-not-great players. But like Werth, and even Crawford, they are in a position to be overvalued by teams seeking to fill a need or make a splash.
And what about Reyes? Out of all the free agents, Jose is the most obvious candidate to be overvalued. Not to say he isn’t a very good player. Mets fans know how good Reyes is. He can change a game with his bat, glove, and speed. He won the NL batting title and had a 5.8 WAR in 2011. But injuries became an issue for him once again, limiting his playing time and performance in the second half of the season. After collecting 40 extra base hits in the first half, he managed only 14 in the second half.
After struggling with leg injuries early in his career, Reyes had 700 or more plate appearances each year from 2005-2008. He enjoyed his best all-around offensive season in 2006, putting up a .300/.354/.487 slash with 19 HRs and 81 RBIs. However, since 2009, his legs have faltered again. Leg injuries, like Jose’s hamstring issues, usually get worse as an athlete gets better. He will either miss more time, or play a more cautious game. His stolen base totals have already declined since 2008, and he appears less aggressive on the basepaths.
But he is the kind of player a team will be tempted to drop a long-term deal on. They’ll take the chance on his health, if the reward is the impact he can have when he is on the field. And unfortunately for the Mets, if a team does give him “Carl Crawford money” or Carl Crawford years, then Jose Reyes will not be coming back to Queens.
24 comments
Anonymous
11/1/2011-2:23am at 2:23 am (UTC -4)
For Reyes the thought’s always been the Giants but I’ve considered the Marlins a dark horse candidate for some time moving into their new digs. I’ve resigned myself to Reyes being a gonner now and I’d go Giants, Angels, Marlins as the top landing spots.
Anonymous
11/1/2011-2:31am at 2:31 am (UTC -4)
Very good piece. You bring a lot to this site, so thanks.
I think someone will throw a bucket full of money and years at Jose and he’s gone. The Mets are off the hook. No one faulted the Phils from matching Werth’s deal, after all.
I know it’s been said before, but who else are they going to spend money on? I really hope they invest in some arms. Aardsma, Francisco, Nathan, plus some others would be a good start. I really hope they re-invest at least 50% of those funds they were going to throw at Reyes back into the team vs. going completely skimpy. I do not belong to the “spend money because you have it” camp, but a couple extra $$ spent for the bullpen is well worth it.
And Alderson is truly going to have to prove himself through some trades if he really wants to upgrade the team. Should be a very interesting offseason, for sure.
Paul J. Festa
11/1/2011-2:51am at 2:51 am (UTC -4)
Thank you NJTX. As much as I like Reyes, if someone gives him a 7 year deal, like you said, the Mets are off the hook.
Adam "Prismo"
11/1/2011-5:12am at 5:12 am (UTC -4)
I don’t think overvalued is the right word, but I would certainly say he has a high risk to “bust” on his contract. If healthy and on his game, Reyes is worth whatever his new contract will be. Of course, that’s a big “if.”
I’m feeling less confident than ever that the Mets will sign Jose. Maybe 25% chance, if that. It makes Adam sad.
Darknova306
11/1/2011-6:00am at 6:00 am (UTC -4)
OH MY GOD SABER SANDY WON’T SIGN REYES CAUSE HE’S SMALL MARKET AND THE METS WILL NEVER WIN WITHOUT REYES SIGN HIM OR ELSE THE SKY IS FALLING AND WE’RE ALL DOOMED!!!!
Darknova306
11/1/2011-6:02am at 6:02 am (UTC -4)
Just a delightful taste of the nonsense that will be all over the blogs, comments, twitter, radio shows, etc once Reyes walks and the Mets fanbase acts like the world just exploded.
Sorry, very bored at work.
Anonymous
11/1/2011-11:24am at 11:24 am (UTC -4)
well, if you ever read comments at MMO, that is pretty much a direct lift from what a couple of people post over and over and over.
I bet you never knew that NY was a big market. Sandy apparently never got the memo. He thinks he is still in Oakland!
Anonymous
11/1/2011-11:32am at 11:32 am (UTC -4)
If Reyes does leave, I don’t see them spending the money on another big $ LT guy. Unless it is taking a contract on trade maybe.
But what they can do, is spend what they would have given him on some better ST assets. a couple pitchers, maybe an upgrade at C or CF. Stuff like that.
In essence, filling out the roster as best they can while the younger guys on the team develop.
I’m sure one of the stat guys could do an analysis with WAR or some such to “prove” if the Mets could win as many games with a stop gap at SS but better SP, CF, etc. vs. having Reyes and the same crap elsewhere on the field.
but, the key is (to Sandy I bet) not tying up big $ way into the future on a piece that may not be what you need.
I know it upsets some fans to no end to think that they might not be WS contenders in the next 2 years, but if the org restructuring means that after 2013 they have a young, affordable, controllable core of very good players to build around, it will be worth it. And spending money on ST assets to compete as best as possible in the next couple years should be part of that building.
In many ways, 2006 was similar to this. A few young studs (I count Beltran in that category, though he was not cheap) surrounded by role players, fillers, old guys, etc. Just a few of them (Pedro) were signed for too many years!
Anonymous
11/1/2011-1:08pm at 1:08 pm (UTC -4)
If you look at the FA market for next year, it basically drops an A-bomb on this years class. So, saving that flexibility for next year is the smartest thing Sandy can do with this team. I still think this team can be improved upon via trades, but via FA, not so much this year. I still hope they don’t go ultra cheap on the filler players. Spend just a little more to get something better than Carrasco for the BP, get a proven closer (Aardsma, or Nathan), stuff like that.
MLBTR has the top 50 FAs and the projected spots they’ll land. The Mets highlights…
- Reyes to Milwaukee
- Beltran to the BoSox
- Signed by the Mets… Broxton and Marquis. yikes…
(PS, this comment forum = bad. just have to throw that in there every now and again).
TRS86
11/1/2011-3:08pm at 3:08 pm (UTC -4)
NJ what do you not like about the comment format?
Anonymous
11/1/2011-3:13pm at 3:13 pm (UTC -4)
2 nitpicks i have with the site. 1 is load time, but I’m convinced that is an internet explorer issue and my work server, so that I’ve come to accept. the 2nd is that the comments take so long to show up in “recent comments’ section as well as any email notifications. I feel that it has lead to reduced comment traffic. Granted, the Mets sucking probably plays a part in that, but overall, the current format leads to very slow paced conversations/debates.
TRS86
11/1/2011-3:54pm at 3:54 pm (UTC -4)
Thanks. Load time is a battle we have always fought. I think we took some measures to speed that up but it ie something we will continue to look at. The problem with the recent comments is more of a problem. Disquss offers a lot of great benefits but good Widgets are not one of them. To get ones that work with the theme at all we have to put up with the delay. I don’t think that forces a lack of comments anywhere near as much as the lack of news to talk about. Thanks for your suggestions and I will keep looking into alternatives.
Anonymous
11/1/2011-2:29pm at 2:29 pm (UTC -4)
I really don’t care what kind of contract Reyes gets as long as he’s back. If that means we have to have a less expensive bullpen, OF or SP for 2012 then so be it…
I still think Sandy gets creative and brings him back because unless Reyes is sick of the Mets, it makes no sense for him to leave…
Anonymous
11/1/2011-2:58pm at 2:58 pm (UTC -4)
It’s not gonna happen Oleo. I’m with ya in not being happy about Reyes going somewhere else (he’s my 2nd favorite all-time Met),
BUT reality is what it is. Better to just accept it and move on.
No offer during the exclusive window, having to cut 30 million in
payroll AND the likelyhood someone IS gonna offer him 6,7 years
and 100+ million means we all should hope Reuben Tejada is more
Fonzie than Izturis. It stinks but it is what it is. More aggrevating is
seeing Ruth Madoff all over TV “explaining her side” of her husband’s
crimes. We were gonna be in a position of weakness following Omar’s reign as it was BUT now having to cut all kind of payroll pretty much insures at least a few seasons of baseball purgatory
for The Mets…..And US!
Anonymous
11/1/2011-3:22pm at 3:22 pm (UTC -4)
I just can’t accept it because I can’t see the alternative.
I mean I know some fans show up just because they do but if you let Reyes walk how do they expect to sell tickets? NY Fans are as fickle as anywhere in the country…
I know they are gonna try and sell Tejada and his “defense” but that will run its course by June…
Anonymous
11/1/2011-3:27pm at 3:27 pm (UTC -4)
Maybe a decade or two ago BUT with corporate interest and sales….And really how many more tickets are gonna be sold because we have Reyes on the roster of whats likely a 90+ loss, lst place team as opposed to a 90+ loss, last place team WITHOUT Reyes on the roster??………….
Sorry…And I am…But Reyes is 99% gone already.
TRS86
11/1/2011-3:56pm at 3:56 pm (UTC -4)
But that line of thinking… sign them be dammed of the cuts you make elsewhere is what has gotten have where we are and is a failed strategy. If they can’t bring in help to go with Reyes because of Reyes then what is the point? Having something pretty to loom at while the house still Burns.
MetsFan4Decades
11/1/2011-4:07pm at 4:07 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, I’ll resign myself to Reyes being gone when it happens – and odds are it will. For now, I can still hope.
I just can’t wrap my brain around Marlins being the ‘overpayer’ for Reyes services – new park or not. Wasn’t that long ago that MLB had to slap Loria’s hand to get him to invest any of the monies back into his team – which is probably the only reason he extended JJ when they did.
At least one GM will throw 7 years and big $$ at Reyes, just not sure who right now. I never rule the Yankees out of anything. Can’t see it being the Phillies, but then again, didn’t see Lee signing with the Phillies either. Wouldn’t surprise me if the Nats aren’t in on it as well. They apparently love to spend money. MI? If they’re not going to sign Fielder, I’ve got a hard time believing they’ll be the Reyes’ winner either.
If we’re going to lose him, I just assume he wind up in the AL league somewhere. Then if I’m really lucky, I won’t have to see him at all next year in another uniform except maybe the ASG.
Anonymous
11/1/2011-5:37pm at 5:37 pm (UTC -4)
Nice piece, as usual. The thing is, for a team that is a contender and can afford a huge contract, if you sign Jose for 5–7 years, and get say 4 years like 2006–2008 or 2011, then the contract might help you win a title or two.
The Mets are nowhere close to contention, and not even serious about changing that anytime soon.
I still support Alderson, but in today’s baseball world, there’s just so much he can do with a shrinking budget and the horrific Bay and Johan deals still with so much money left on them.
I sincerely feel that we are almost at rock bottom with this era. The day we see Jose on ESPN smiling in his new team’s hat, THAT will be the bottom. Then we begin to climb out.
Hopefully, we see Wheeler continue to be as dominant as he was in A ball when he moves up to AA, hopefully we see Mejia work on more pitches and become more sturdy health-wise, hopefully we see Harvey and/or Familia develop into 1 or 2 serious starters, and hopefully Ike and Duda develop into at least productive long-term answers if not all-stars.
2012 will be the bottom; then we begin to climb towards a totally new era filled with new young players and with hope.
And, as Andy once said to Red, “Hope is a good thing; maybe the best of things.”
TRS86
11/1/2011-7:11pm at 7:11 pm (UTC -4)
Agree with a lot of this. Honestly I am torn on if they should even break the bank for Jose. It is almost like part of me wants to put an end to the era of if they are healthy… I am not sure I think they will be any worse next year than this year and think they could climb out of that hole quicker than many. I also don’t think budget contains are dictating things as much as responsible spending. After the big names this market is garbage and going out and recklessly spending to patch holes is failure at Omar levels. Regardless of Reyes thankfully payroll was decreasing and I don’t mind at all if without Reyes it is hovering around 100m.
Anonymous
11/1/2011-11:24pm at 11:24 pm (UTC -4)
Agree with much of this.
I honestly think that the Wheeler trade could someday be looked back on as brilliant. And from Mejia/Familia/Harvey, there is at least one fine major leaguer.
My comments really are not pessimism. The Mets are in my blood for my entire life; I am not going anywhere ever.
I am just prepared for one more bad year; then we will be revived.
I am torn on Jose too. But if he goes, we get draft picks. Draft picks became Wright and Ike.
Paul Festa
11/1/2011-10:46pm at 10:46 pm (UTC -4)
You’re right. The only way to right this ship is to build it from the bottom up. That usually translates to long-term success. That also means another year or two of mediocrity, but I’m willing to make that sacrifice.
Anonymous
11/1/2011-10:34pm at 10:34 pm (UTC -4)
After Jose in a new cap my definition of bottom will be:
Beltran in RF in the Bronx instead of Swisher and Johan proving himself healthy enough to be traded and we move him to the Yanks for Montero and parts. Both could get the Yanks another ring but if it could get us a stud hitting catcher in return I’d be pleased. Of course they won’t move Johan but I’d like to see the dollars off the books and get a top prospect in return,
Anonymous
11/2/2011-1:49am at 1:49 am (UTC -4)
who knows what will happen. But life will go on regardless.
in some ways, the key is to look at everything as part of a 5 year plan. That is, look at all the moves with potential impact from 3-5 years out.
Not that they should not try to get better each year (and compete), just that moves should tie into that. either add a LT commitment that can still be a serious contributor that far out, or add ST pieces that don’t take away from it.
So, reyes on a 5 year deal could fit. But if he leaves, and they can’t trade for a guy that will be around for a while, they should go after ST deals for better guys (essentially spread the Reyes budget around), and try to win as many games as they can.
At least those ST deals won’t take away future flexibility, or block a prospect when he is ready.