Of course as the Reyes debate continues the Mets have to as a team be prepared for life without Jose even if some fans are not. Let me first say I trust Sandy to do the right thing, whether that be re-signing Reyes or moving on. Also, I am not qualified to say these are the moves that would put the Mets over the top or even in the right direction. So as I attach names to next year’s teams it is more about philosophy than names. Feel free to scratch a name here or there and fill it with who you believe makes more sense or is a better fit.
First of all the popular notion is that the Mets should not bring back Pelfrey or Pagan. I for one think that both will be offered arbitration but neither may be on the Mets in 2012. Remember that players can still be traded once offered arbitration AND there is a deadline for these type players to be released with little consequence (see Duaner Sanchez). However for the sake of the argument how could the 31 million combined best be used for the 2012 season and the future.
Facts are not easy to come by this time of year but probabilities are still useful. Chances are the Mets will not spend the entire amount for 2012 if Reyes does not re-sign. Not only would it not be necessary but would be foolish as well. Lets assume that out of that estimated 31 million from those players they pocket 5M.
What is the biggest weakness? Mets fans in unison say pitching.
Step one:
Sign a young pitcher with high upside spending a decent amount of money. No CJ Wilson here. My choice Paul Maholm. If you are big on judging a pitcher by wins and losses, skip this paragraph. Maholm is 29 years old and had a 3.66 ERA in 162 innings last season. He did hit the DL for the first time in his career but many in Pittsburgh wondered if it was legit. I would think 2 years with an option at around 8M per year would be enough. Another alternative is Edwin Jackson. Higher upside, higher demands…
Step two:
Assuming now that you have 5 starters in the rotation with health concerns for two of them you will need another Capuano type. Unfortunately Cap has most likely priced himself out of the discussion due to a great find. I trust Sandy here but a guy like Dontrelle Willis has some name value. Cost 2-3M.
Step three:
Got to have a closer, in house options just won’t cut it. Luckily for the Mets it is a saturated market. Personally my pick would be Joe Nathan. No need to discuss his merits. When healthy he was compared favorably to Rivera. Obviously health is a question but if the Mets can also add a compliment with closing experience they have nothing to lose. Cost 6M with incentives.
Step four:
The complement to Nathan. Another high upside guy looking to rebuild value with closing experience. My pick Jonathan Broxton. Still only 27, 2011 was a lost year. For 2 years he has not been the same, the Mets are in a position where they can find out why. Other names Lidge, Rauch, David Aardsma, Dan Wheeler. Cost 3-5M.
Step 5:
The offense. Obviously the offense will take a step backwards replacing Reyes with Tejada. However, hopefully you will also have full seasons from Davis and Wright while Duda is able to produce for an entire season. Also you can hopefully factor in some improvement from Bay. That being said you need offensive potential from somewhere. My pick, signing a hungry Grady Sizemore. There is going to be competition here but I still don’t see more than a 1 year deal with an option and incentives. Grady is obviously an injury risk but could turn into gold if healthy. Honestly after him I see not many alternatives better than Pagan. To me Ankiel and McLouth are not serious options. Cost uh… 6M plus incentives.
Step 6:
Got to have someone to back up Sizemore than can also play great defense while being an asset to the team. My pick, full circle. Endy Chavez. Endy proved to be recovered from an injury that cost him 2010. While I have been critical of Endy in the past he is exactly what the Mets need to replace Pagan as the 4th OF. Cost 2M.
Step 7:
With Tejada at SS and Murphy, Turner, and the cast at 2B the Mets need an established veteran capable of playing SS and 2B. My pick Jamey Carroll. Not sure if you can get him to head East again but he is what he is. A good average, solid OBP, solid defender, professional player. A guy that can slot in at 2B, SS, 3B at any time without costing you dramatically on offense or defense. Other alternatives, the cast of 1,000′s. Cost 2-3M.
Total money spent around 25-28M. Roster would look something like this.
SR:
Johan, Dickey, Maholm, Niese, Gee
BP:
Nathan, Broxton, Parnell, Acosta, Byrdak, Beato, Buchholz and or others.
Lineup:
Sizemore, Murphy, Davis, Wright, Duda, Bay, Thole, Tejada, (Fight over lineups when it matters)
Bench:
Paulino, Turner, Evans, Chavez, Carroll
No Jose Reyes, is that a certainty yet? No but the Mets have to have contingency plans because contrary to some beliefs life will go on. Here’s the honest question you have to ask yourself. Is this team more or less likely to be competitive than the team with just Jose and back-filled with crap?
16 comments
Anonymous
11/3/2011-4:37pm at 4:37 pm (UTC -4)
TRS, I just got this weeks S.I. in the mail. Interesting article about 5 treades that make sense ( to the writer, I guess), the last one noted was FMart for
Carlos Marmol. Not likely I guess since I don’t know what Met Fan wouldn’t do this immediately if given the chance.
I like Maholm, always have and Edwin Jackson as well BUT forget about Dontrelle. Not sure whats happened HOWEVER after watching our old friend Ollie Perez down here the 2nd half w/The H’Burg Sens con’t to be the bad Ollie against AA comp, I can say Willis is HIGHLY UNLIKELY to rebound to
anything close to the Dontrelle of 5 years ago.
Dirtysanchez
11/3/2011-4:44pm at 4:44 pm (UTC -4)
Paul is an interesting name out there…id be interested in that if i was sandy.
PAL88
11/3/2011-4:54pm at 4:54 pm (UTC -4)
Pretty complete although I really question you Dontrelle Willispick…He’s done
TRS86
11/3/2011-5:12pm at 5:12 pm (UTC -4)
Like I said the names are insignificant I am referring to a scrap heap type
Ceetar
11/3/2011-7:09pm at 7:09 pm (UTC -4)
I’d give Sizemore a minor league invite..and that’s about it.
SaltyGary
11/3/2011-8:40pm at 8:40 pm (UTC -4)
This would be a perfect year to risk a little dough on Sizemore. If he bombs it won’t break anything. If he can turn the corner they can wrap that sucker up for a couple more years and have a fine player.
Law came out with his top 50 FA class and he is down on Coco Crisp and I floated his name around here too to not much fan fare, but I think he would be a good low cost upgrade over Pagan.
For Pelf, I really can’t stand watching him at this point but I don’t blame the team for keeping him one more year. The alternatives at that cost aren’t great.
Maholm is all about cost. This is Law’s take;
Maholm’s season ended Aug. 20 when the Pirates placed him on the DL with
a left shoulder strain, so his market is going to be a function of team
doctors’ reviews of his records and what happens if and when he takes a
physical.
He posted the best ERA of his career in 2011, but it wasn’t actually a
great year for him, just a lucky one on balls allowed into play … and
Maholm allows a lot of them. He does throw strikes, and tends to keep
the ball down and thus in the park despite a below-average fastball that
was the slowest of his career in 2011, which likely was a function of
whatever is going on in his shoulder. When healthy, he’ll sit around
87-89 mph with a slow curveball and a slider that isn’t sharp but runs
away from left-handed hitters just enough to be effective. However, the
slider was too flat this year and his change was too close in velocity
to his fastball. The upside here is that you might get a left-handed
starter with good control for the third or fourth spot in your rotation
on a cheap, incentive-heavy deal. The downside here is that the dip in
his velocity this past season could be a harbinger of disaster, or he
might have something seriously wrong in his shoulder and miss even more
time.
Anonymous
11/3/2011-9:11pm at 9:11 pm (UTC -4)
My Man, on a side note, new New Belgium flavor.
http://www.newbelgium.com/Community/Blog/11-11-03/Fresh-Hop-IPA-Part-2.aspx
looks yummy.
SaltyGary
11/3/2011-10:15pm at 10:15 pm (UTC -4)
ARGH I love fresh hop ales, but I totally won’t be able to get this. I need to figure out a way. At least Sierra Nevada’s Celebration ale should be coming out soon, one of my favorites.
Ran to Providence last weekend to escape the foot of snow we got and was able to grab a couple of samplers from Left Hand Brewery. They make this incredible “Milk Stout” that I only had a chance to get one other time. So this week has been a good beer week.
Anonymous
11/3/2011-8:47pm at 8:47 pm (UTC -4)
Like the Maholm option. I’d be all for that. As for Dontrelle, no way, no how, no sir. That would be a complete waste of money. I’d rather they roll the dice again with Young over Dontrell.
Big fan of Nathan. I’d like to see Nathan and Aardsma, but that may be too much cost wise. Broxton is a thrower, not a pitcher, and when the velocity falls off, so does the pitcher. I don’t see him coming back to former glory. Though, he’d probably be cheaper, relatively speaking.
Sizemore worries me, unless you can get a suitable backup, like you mentioned in Endy. Cause who are we handing the keys off to when Sizemore gets hurt. I wish they could afford to keep Pagan and sign Sizemore. Pagan dropping to bench might help him to re-focus…
Overall, very well put together and thought out. Honestly, though, I really think we’ll see Sandy pull some trades. I really think he’ll have to clean out some of the guys on the 40-man (Like an Fmart, Parnell, Evans, etc.) to get something in a BP arm or a C or even bench CF. And that’s not taking into consideration of possibly moving Pagan/Pelf/Wright… We shall see.
Anonymous
11/4/2011-11:44am at 11:44 am (UTC -4)
I agree about Dontrelle here.
TRS86
11/4/2011-12:52pm at 12:52 pm (UTC -4)
Getting too caught up in the name I should have picked another has been. Can’t say many expected that season out of Cap. I trust Sandy can find something similar.
MetsFan4Decades
11/3/2011-8:51pm at 8:51 pm (UTC -4)
SIGN REYES!
O.K, moving on…..
- I don’t understand the Rubin reported big push to get rid of Pagan.
Sure, upgrade if you can but from what I’m seeing on what’s available,
just don’t know if there is a decent upgrade. If Sizemore stays
healthy, maybe. Longer term, I have to wonder what they’re thinking for
CF. From what I’m reading Captain Kirk had a series injury he might
never really recover from.
Endy? Love him but his bat just isn’t that good. Haven’t seen him play
last few years except a couple of innings in the playoffs but he’s 33
now. His claim to fame was always defense. Is he still fast enough out
for that?
- Broxton and Nathan? Good deal if they both work out. If neither do
though, that’s a bit of money tied up. They have to do something though
with that BP and especially closer so I’d probably take the chance. At
least Broxton is young.
- I’d take a flyer on Jackson before Maholm but either one might slot in nicely with the money they have to spend – or don’t have, to be more precise.
- how about catcher? From what I’m reading, Paulino probably is not coming back. I’m afraid they’ll be going with Nickeas.
- Backup MI? I’m still going with Tejada until I hear otherwise.
SaltyGary
11/3/2011-10:29pm at 10:29 pm (UTC -4)
Yea a catcher is definitely needed but the available players are thin.
Anonymous
11/4/2011-12:07am at 12:07 am (UTC -4)
Wow, great article. I thought there were alot of valid points made throughout and o appreciate the openness insofar as someone finally realizes that even with Reyes this team is not exactly on the cusp of winning it all. Very good writing, keep up the good work.
TRS86
11/4/2011-2:52am at 2:52 am (UTC -4)
Thanks.
Anonymous
11/4/2011-11:42am at 11:42 am (UTC -4)
well thought out. I like the pitching concept too.
for the position guys, I don’t see Murphy at 2B. Doubt they would go spend more on a vet, but could be another 1-2mill guy?
My real pick, of course, is havens coming to camp and just blowing everyone away after a winter of working out to win the job.
I would also like to see an upgrade over paulino at catcher #2.
but other than that, a reasonable team . Decent blend of competing this year with pelnty of guys that are still developing. And with a few “where did that come froms” mixed in (not too many!), certainly something that could compete for a WC with mid-80s wins+.
so many guys where you don’t know what to expect (upside potential). but if Nathan, broxton, sizemore get back to 80% of what they once were, that would still be a vast improvement. And add wright and bay to that!