The talk surrounding Reyes’ dream visit with the Marlins and the team’s impending signing of every free agent available has already dominated Mets blogs for some time now. It seems all but assured that Reyes is on his way out, be it to the Miami Marlins of Florida or any other club. So, finally, after several months of speculation and held out hope that for some reason, Reyes would forget that $120 million is more than $100 million, we are forced to look at what remains of the Mets as the hot stove begins to heat up. The problem with that? I have no idea what direction we are headed in.
It’s always been if Reyes this, if Reyes that, but, now that it seems certain he won’t be around, what’s the deal? We keep hearing that the Mets may make runs at C.J. Wilson, Mark Buehrle, Heath Bell, and Joe Nathan. But so what?
The bottom line is that, if Sandy intends to keep the payroll between $80 and $100 million, we need to call it what it is and rebuild. Plugging any of those guys into our rotation and/or bullpen would be an upgrade, to be sure. But, and I would ask this even if Reyes were still standing there at short, does that really put the Mets where we want to be? The answer seems to unequivocally be no. A couple extra wins would be great. Some assurance at the end of the bullpen would be fantastic. But if you think that team is contending with the big guns in the NL, you’re deluding yourself. However, there is one major block standing in the way of Sandy enacting an all-out rebuilding plan.
I have maintained all along that I don’t believe David Wright is tradable. Not because no one will take him, but because there is no equal value to be had. I still believe that. But the fact remains that if Wright weren’t on this team, I have a hard time seeing us doing anything but firesaling (v. to firesale) once Reyes walks out the door. Because of Wright, though, we are forced to examine every other alternative. The sad reality is that I don’t see a quick fix for these Mets. One of the most biting criticisms I heard about Mets fans this year was that our team is so awful we have talked ourselves into believing that Turner, Tejada, Pagan, and Duda are solid everyday contributors. Unfortunately, and as much as I like those guys, it’s true. The likes of most of the Mets aren’t contributing starters on good teams. They just aren’t. Look at the middle-of-the-pack players for a team like the Cardinals or Phillies. With the possible exception of Duda, no Mets middle-of-the-pack (or even slightly better) player is starting over their guys. That’s the cold hard truth and when you have so many guys who fit into that category (Pridie, Capuano, Thole, etc.), you need to start over.
Do our guys inspire even the confidence these guys did? Via -- USA Today
Ask yourself these three questions. Is there a contender for which R.A. Dickey is a top-2 starter? Is there a contender sporting Manny Acosta as the most reliable 8th inning bridge? Is there a playoff team for which Justin Turner and Ruben Tejada are seen not as a hole in the lineup, but as gutsy participants in a position battle? No. And that’s why there are no quick fixes for the Mets. If we had one of those problems, sure, use the money lost on Reyes to upgrade one of those spots. But with all of those issues, even the wisest spent $20 million offers no solution.
So, we need a sign from Sandy. Is there a contender in this group only $20 million away? Or is it time to start over? My belief is that if Reyes leaves, we have to start over. I’m not convinced we couldn’t do that and keep Wright, but I don’t think Wright deserves to weather that storm. I love our guys, make no mistake, but to take an honest step back and call them a likely contender just isn’t possible. The team that a $100 million payroll will get us right now will keep us hovering around that 80-win mark and spare us embarrassment. But to expect anything more is a folly typical of previous front office regimes and one I can only hope this group has the foresight to avoid.
10 comments
Anonymous
11/13/2011-3:00am at 3:00 am (UTC -4)
This is a full blown fiscal restructure. Get the books in order, ASAP. Good bye Reyes, eventually, good bye Wright, Santana and Bay (after all 3 rebuild some value). The more this plays out, and the more my warped brain is grasping this all, the more Alderson is turning into Greenspan. He is here to steady the ship and point it in the right direction. Do not be jumpy, do not be reactionary, do not be emotional.
If said ‘right direction’ does not mean this team is not competitive until 2014, so be it, but that right direction damn well better have prospects popping out the wah-zoo at that point. And hopefully, that is what the plan is.
All in all, I could give (insert something witty here) for Sandy giving us, the fans, guidance or a plan. All I want is him to sort this crap out as best he can, keep flipping Beltrans for Wheelers and create an environment where free agency is looked at as adding the final piece to the puzzle rather than the FAs being the entire border to the puzzle.
Anonymous
11/13/2011-3:05am at 3:05 am (UTC -4)
Another stellar post, by the way. You have skills, padawan….
Tommy2cat
11/13/2011-11:15am at 11:15 am (UTC -4)
Nice job, Alex.
The current state of the NY Mets isn’t anything Sandy Alderson cannot fix (excuse the double negative, please). He just needs to go to the Donnie Walsh School for GM-Fan Communication.
Here’s what we got:
- Competent Everyday Players: Wright, Davis, Duda, Murphy*, Pagan**
- Competent Role Players: Bay***, Paulino, Tejada, Thole, Turner
- Near ML-ready Prospects: Havens, Niewenhuis, Lutz, Valdespin, Den Dekker (maybe)
*Murphy is a great hitter in search of a full-time spot. He is best suited to 3rd, then 1st and, last 2nd base. That’s the issue with him.
**Pagan’s bout with colitis last season rendered him inconsistent. We would all be pleased if he returned to his 2009-10 form. I’m in his corner.
***Jason Bay’s splits against lefties are favorable, with a .300 BA & OPS over .800. He’s begging to be platooned. In my book, he has until the end of May to get his head out of his ass; otherwise, he’s riding the pine against righties. Two-plus years of substandard performance is an adequate sample for what I can expect from the duration of his contract.
From an organizational standpoint, we need to bulk up on right-handed hitters. For this reason alone, but among several others, any discussionof trading David Wright is grossly premature. When Adam Jones hits the FA market in 2013, I’m on him like Miami is on Reyes. Lutz, Satin & perennial Nick Evans should see limited opportunities in which they are most likely to succeed.
Given the above variables, here’s what we got for next year at present:
cf – Pagan
ss – Tejada
3d – Wright
1b – Davis
lf – Bay/Niewenhuis
rf – Duda
2d – Murphy/Turner
c – Thole/Paulino
Bench potential: Thole/Paulino, Bay/Niewenhuis, Murphy/Turner, Lutz, Den Dekker, Valdespin
This line-up clearly has the earmarks of a construction site, which is why it would be wise to integrate and groom our ML ready prospects now. Hence, the strength of this team will not be the starting 9, but what Terry Collins can extract from the 25-man roster on a daily basis. That appears to be his managerial strength.
I suppose that Alderson is reluctant to extend a large contract to Reyes because, over time, his health represents too great a risk upon which to invest a club’s financial assets. We’ve had bad luck with large contracts recently.
I disagree with SA in this instance. Jose Reyes’ absence dehydrates an otherwise pedestrian NY Met line-up, health risks notwithstanding. It would be better to sign him to a large contract and hedge our bets against his health risks, than to proceed without him. His talent is so rare that it cannot be replaced.
Anonymous
11/13/2011-2:10pm at 2:10 pm (UTC -4)
I have been beating the Bay has to platoon drum for a while now. Some people scream that it will never happen, etc. But, the way this team is being run now, he has to be on a short leash.
He will start the season most likely as the everyday guy (trying to build value or get him back on track) and like you said, 1-2 months in if he is still castillo-like vs. RHP (without the OBP) then he will be riding the pine.
The question more is, will there be a LH bat forcing the issue? I owuld love to see someone brought in for a year to serve that role (huge splits + a good glove), or possibly someone comes out of ST (and really, the only possible candidate I see is F Mart).
As part of this platoon, I also would love to see Duda go to LF where he belongs, and bay/LH guy manning RF. Better overall for the team
Tommy2cat
11/13/2011-11:22pm at 11:22 pm (UTC -4)
Yup. Duda in left. Bay & Capt. Kirk in right. I have more confidence in Kirk than F-Mart, but maybe a right field platoon is what F-Mart needs to get started.
It’s making the best of a difficult situation.
Tommy2cat
11/13/2011-11:35am at 11:35 am (UTC -4)
As the ’69 Mets demonstrated, the best remedy for a substandard offense is good defense and a stable of young, healthy arms – the great equalizer in any baseball game.
The Mets won the World Series with the likes of Bud Harrelson, Rafael Santana and Kevin Elster manning shortstop. We haven’t made the playoffs in five (5) years. So, what gives?
If we don’t sign Reyes, our quickest remedy is to sign Mark Buehrle Joe Nathan and Ryan Madsen, and also set our sites on Jeremy Affeldt, if he’s available.
Here’s our starters:
- Santana
- Buehrle
- Dickey
- Niese
- Pelfrey
Here’s our proposed relief corp:
Nathan, Madsen, Acosta, Parnell, Beato, Gee & Byrdak.
The cost of adding Buehrle and Madsen, two type-A FAs, and Nathan is defrayed somewhat by not signing Reyes. It would be a very healthy investment and provide a stable environment in which to integrate our young arms – Harvey, Wheeler, Familia, Mejia, Gorski, Fulmer, Mazzoni, etc…
The mere thought of signing these guys reduces my blood pressure very much.
Have a nice Sunday!
Anonymous
11/13/2011-2:05pm at 2:05 pm (UTC -4)
so true about the pitching.
look at the NL east this year. The phillies won 102 games, and played in a favorable to hitters park. And they still scored fewer runs than the mets did.
I like the Nathan idea, but don’t see Madson. More like Nathan for the ST, with a younger power arm (Parnell or soem other guy) being groomed to take over.
Given a choice, I prefer a closer on a short contract, with the replacements being setting up and getting ready to push him out of the way. Signing a 31 YO guy like madson scares me, if it is for 4 years.
Tommy2cat
11/13/2011-11:23pm at 11:23 pm (UTC -4)
Perhaps Nathan & Lidge, neither of whom are Type A free agents.
Anonymous
11/13/2011-2:19pm at 2:19 pm (UTC -4)
Excellent piece Alex.
IMO, this is a somewhat unique situation. The team needed to rebuild (or at least retool) anyway now, but the overriding fact that the Mets are broke is screwing that up. Otherwise, they could do the rebuild while compete dance. That would entail keeping Reyes (certainly young enough to build around) and spending money on some other ST assets to help them compete next year.
and of course, buy (if available) another building block!
But, IMO sandy was appointed by Selig (probably the condition to not be forced out) with a 2 fold mission. 1 was to straighten out the organization top to bottom (IOW, clean up after Tony and Omar) – not the roster but the whole culture, player development system, etc. But that could have been done with money!
#2 (the biggie) was to slash and burn enough cost to keep the team afloat (and in the Wilpon’s control). And the posters elsewhere that scream about why isn’t he trying to compete are probably right. Trying to win in 2011 or 2012 was never part of the picture. Sure, if some miracle happened and they were right in the race (and fans were coming out again) they might try to add a piece, but in the off season, no it is not on the radar.
Even without Reyes, there could be enough to compete if enough things break right. Dickey stays strong, neise finally harnesses his stuff, 1 new SP works out, a couple pen arms don’t suck, and Davis and Duda both mash? That and some good health for a change can at least keep you hanging around respectability and the fringes of the WC race.
MetsFan4Decades
11/13/2011-4:51pm at 4:51 pm (UTC -4)
Nice piece.
Don’t think there’s any doubt with Reyes walking this is a full scale rebuild.
Some disagree but I just don’t see how you can call it anything else. To boot, I think that was Alderson’s main plan all along. He tried to ‘ease’ the masses into it by first saying this years payroll would be around 110-120 MIL, then it was lowered by 10 MIL or so as the season went on – now down to less than 100 MIL.
Jose gone, payroll south of 100 MIL, NY…..sure sounds like a rebuild to me.
I expect Wright to be gone mid season but NLT end of next season.
Alderson’s quote of ‘we’re not punting for 2012′……not sure I get that. We have to be. There is no way we’re competing with what we have left on the low of a payroll here in NY.
Sucks big time. Should have never been in this position to begin with.