Earlier I took a look at the backstop position in the NL East. Today we move our way around the diamond to 1st base.
Looking at 1B in the NL East it’s hard to not let my biases show through. For one thing I hate the Phillies in general and have never been a big fan of Ryan Howard. Now with his injury to his overly large lower half I have to wonder how much his numbers will suffer. What is clear however is that his strangle hold on the NL East’s best 1B has loosened its grip or has it even disappeared?
Should we go last to first on this one?
#5 The Nationals: One would assume that their starting 1B will be LaRoche. I could go on and on how I think that this team missed the boat not offering Fielder the moon but that’s moot at this point. If it is indeed LaRoche then they need to hope he is healthy and just cover their eyes in the first half. Adam is a notoriously slow starter mustering up only a .246, .324, .435, .758 slash line for his career in the first half. Combine that with an injury plagued 2011 and a lot of bouncing around in 2010 and you get a big question mark. So why do I think that it may not be Adam roaming the 1st base bag? Davey wants him some Harper. If Harper does break camp will they go with Werth in CF? That certainly is not helping your pitching staff to have an OF of Morse, Werth and Harper. My prediction is that while Harper may not make the opening day roster, if LaRoche does not come to hit then Morse will be taking a long diagonal walk.
#4 Gabby Sanchez, the James Loney of the NL East. Tons of potential but he’s not a prospect anymore. It’s time for him to put together a stud season if he wants to move up this list. Gabby was able to ward off a sophomore slump last year in his 2nd full season but he certainly did not take another step forward either. So far his career slash line is almost identical to what he put up last year. .260′s BA with a mid .340′s OBP and around 15-20 HR. He does play decent defense but in a power position those numbers are just not going to get it done. However, I actually think this might be the year he puts it together. I expect him to make a push towards being more of a .275-.280 guy with 25 HR and 90 RBI. For now though he gets the #4.
#3 Freddie Freeman, this one was tough. At one point I had him below Gabby because he has only done it one year and at one point I was ready to put him ahead of Ryan Howard. Freeman is just a plain professional. Defensively he may be the Gold Glove standard for many years to come. Offensively in his first full season he put up an OPS+ of 118 with 21 HR and 32 doubles in a lineup that was often starved for other offensive contributions. After a red hot July he did limp to the finish last year with a mediocre August and awful September. Did he get tired or did he get figured out? That will be something to watch in early 2012.
#2 Ryan Howard, I told you I could not let my bias go on this one. I can’t stand the Phillies and think that Howard might be one of the more overrated players in the league… again one man’s opinion. For the 2nd straight year Howard’s BA, OBP, and SLG all took large hits. While he was still good for 33 HR and 116 RBI, his defense continued to be suspect and his hitting was pitiful away from the friendly confines of the Sandlot. That being said, based on numbers alone he should be ranked first so my next comment will be viewed as hypocritical of course. His injury is something that may effect him dramatically going forward. Howard is a BIG man and dealing with an Achilles injury for a guy his size is nothing to laugh about. After listening to Cliff Floyd on MLBN on this topic I really think he has something, it may take away a lot of power from a guy who was already seeing a decline.
#1 Homer Davis, I mean Ike Davis. Homer just describes me when it comes to Ike. I listen to a lot of MLBN due to my travel time. I find it a great listen regardless of the show and while I don’t agree with a lot of what they say, I agree with this one (go figure). At various points they have proposed that with Fielder and Pujols jumping ship Ike Davis may be 2nd to only Joey Votto. Now let me say this, if it is true then it may be a distant 2nd for sure. However, what’s not to like about how Ike started the season? A 155 OPS+ would put him near the top of the league for sure, can he maintain that level of offense while playing incredible defense as well? Who says there is nothing to watch for on the Mets this year?
19 comments
NJstuckinTX
2/10/2012-8:49am at 8:49 am (UTC -4)
Better Homer han Crash Davis. Doh!
MetsFan4Decades
2/10/2012-9:30am at 9:30 am (UTC -4)
Howard is over rated as far as the contract he has that kicks in this year. Still, can’t deny what he’s done in the past. However, I don’t think he has a shot of being ready opening day – right now they’re predicting some time in May. Which might translate to June. When he does return, does he hit the ground running? So many ifs with Howard this year.
No one hates the Phillies more than I do – well….maybe stickguy since he’s stuck in Philly land. Still, on paper right now with the bat, hard not to slot Howard in first. As I said though, I don’t think he plays a full season and when he does return, I have to figure it’s to a slow start.
Ike’s defense is far superior to anything Howard will ever put up so slotting him first in this exercise is not a stretch, even though we haven’t seen a full season of Ike yet.
I think the wild card in the bunch will be Freeman.
TRS86
2/10/2012-9:36am at 9:36 am (UTC -4)
However, when you look at Howard’s decline his HR while nice are also declining and of course his RBI are a product of the team he plays on but just like their offense his RBI are declining as well. I think there is a decent case for Howard to not be the top offensive 1B, especially factoring in his injury.
MetsFan4Decades
2/10/2012-9:43am at 9:43 am (UTC -4)
No argument from me on this.
If Ike had played out a full year last year – and finished the way he started – this wouldn’t even have been a debate.
Stickguy
2/10/2012-6:24pm at 6:24 pm (UTC -4)
I would like to own this crown please.
Howard has been declining, trending more toward the one dimensional Hr or bust guy. And like you note, his D is nothing to write home about.
But, the big his has to be the high probability that he does not start the season, and may miss quite a bit of time. And who knows how much he will be impacted after that.
I fully expect Ike to out produce him anyway with the bat, and when you factor in the vast difference in D, I am not going to argue with this ranking.’
Oh, and I hate philly with a passion. I can’t wait to move down to NC in a few years so I can hang with Real (though more likely I end up in the NE part of the state!)
trs86
2/12/2012-4:08pm at 4:08 pm (UTC -4)
Wow, there’s a NE part of NC? That would be the Great Dismal Swamp. You trying out for Swampmen?
Stickguy
2/12/2012-4:30pm at 4:30 pm (UTC -4)
well, I was thinking more of the RTP/Cary area, but if I can get land cheap enough in the swamp, why not!
TRS86
2/13/2012-11:44am at 11:44 am (UTC -4)
Oh, well us Carolinians call that Central NC. Not a bad area but I like the Triad a little better if you are not thinking Charlotte area. Triad is Winston-Salem, Greensboro, High Point, still lots of stuff to do but crime rate and overall ugliness of Triangle is absent.
gategem
2/11/2012-10:57pm at 10:57 pm (UTC -4)
The only caveat I see with ranking Davis first is the potential residual effects of the injury and mistreatment he received last year that could hamper him for years to come. Arthritis tends to form in areas of significant injury. If healthy Davis can be something special.
darknova306
2/12/2012-1:32am at 1:32 am (UTC -4)
The caveat there is “can be”. I fear too many Mets fans will place exceedingly high expectations on Ike, like the many people I’ve seen on twitter predicting a 35+ HR, 110+ RBI season from him with a significantly high place in MVP voting. He hasn’t seen live pitching in a very long time, so we should expect a pretty hefty re-learning period for him, plus the league now has a book on him. Let’s try to temper our expectations a bit.
gategem
2/12/2012-2:42am at 2:42 am (UTC -4)
You’re most certainly correct in your assessment.
With Davis out for most of last season the scouting report on him probably didn’t undergo an appreciable change from last season. The league and Davis are still going through a major test and adjustment phase. That will converge over a period of time but minor adjustments will continue throughout a player’s career. So you’re correct in that we really have no idea how things will eventually play out. It’s presumptuous of us to assume he would have continued on the pace he showed in the short time he played last season. Perhaps we are expecting too much. But I think that comes from the fact that as Mets fans we have so little going for us. It’s similar to people thinking that Chris Young would have won the Cy Young last season if he remained healthy based upon a few starts. But there is no denying that Davis is extraordinarily talented with an outstanding work ethnic.
I’m sure there are stats that could be used to determine the mean time it takes for players, in general, to return to their previous self from significant down time but the amount of variables to factor in is large. I’ve seen players shed the rust of inactivity and get their timing back rather quickly (leading to the phrase that some hitter could step out of a rocking chair and get a base hit) while others have labored. Again you’re correct in that we have to be patient.
trs86
2/12/2012-4:09pm at 4:09 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, I think that anything over an .850 OPS will be a strong season considering.
jessep
2/13/2012-10:25am at 10:25 am (UTC -4)
Just my 2 cents. If you’re going to be a homer with your rankings, then it takes away from the validity of your post.
As I’ve read your C and 1B I am starting to wonder, are these rankings based on “today” or potential?
Look, I love Ike Davis. I hope he comes the guy we all hoped Wright/Reyes could have become for the franchise.
But you and I have seen him play in 183 Games. He’s coming off an injury that left him sidelined for over 120 games. That has to create SOME uncertainty no?
In Sanchez’s 2011 All-Star season he went
159G 152H 35 doubles 19HR 78 RBI .266/.352/.427/.779 OPS+ 113
In Ike’s ONLY full season he went
147G 138H 33 doubles 19HR 71 RBI .264/.351/.440/.791 OPS+ 115
To me, those look very very similar. And you can sell me on Ike’s 36 games, and I’d probably take the bait. But I could also probably show you guys who started a season on fire and cooled off.
The truth is we have no idea what to expect, but we can hope for the best.
I just find it odd that you’re so down on Sanchez, calling him “the James Loney of NL East” when his season last year is almost identical to Ike’s only full season?
I think you could be right, I think Ike can be the #1 1B (depending on Howard’s injury) I just disagree with how you wrote off Sanchez and praised Ike when they are very similar.
Just to put a bow on this since you seem to value Ike’s 36 games a ton. Here’s the comparison
.335 22 Runs 46 Hits 9 Doubles 6HR 23 RBI 18BB 19K
.302 20 Runs 39 Hits 8 Doubles 7HR 25 RBI 17BB 21K
The top guy is Gaby Sanchez last year through 36 games. We have the luxury of seeing Sanchez through 162 games in 2011, but if you’re using Ike’s 36 games to give him the #1 spot then you’re not being fair to Sanchez
SaltyGary
2/13/2012-10:44am at 10:44 am (UTC -4)
Yea it’s looking like Ike’s position is based on hype/hope/potential while the others are more based on evidence. I like evidence better and Ike needs to prove it before he can unseat Howard as the best 1b in the division.
#3-#5 I am in agreement with.
TRS86
2/13/2012-11:42am at 11:42 am (UTC -4)
I am not looking to be a scout, only giving my take on who I THINK will be the best performers at these positions for the coming season based on evidence as well as just the impression I get.
Also I said the following about Gaby “However, I actually think this might be the year he puts it together. I expect him to make a push towards being more of a .275-.280 guy with 25 HR and 90 RBI. ”
But for now he is much more like Loney. The guy is 28 years old already and has yet to put together the season that everyone expects. Yeah, Ike has not either but there is a huge difference there IMO. Loney is actually younger than Gaby and has a career slash line of .288, .339, .432, .778 compared to Gaby: .269 .346 .440 .786… looks like virtually the same player to me.
Obviously Ike has not done much better YET but I do feel, as do many analyst who ranked him 2nd best 1B in the NL, that he has taken the next step.
jessep
2/13/2012-12:00pm at 12:00 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t disagree with you that much. I mean it’s good to know this is what you think WILL happen, not ranking them based on what they are today.
I just find it to be inconsistent that if Sanchez’ numbers are better or as good as Ike’s that you have Ike at #1 and Gaby at #4. It’s just a tad too homer for me. Ike’s 36 games are being weighed with mets blinders on while Sanchez’s 2011 season started BETTER than Ike’s.
If I told you Ike Davis’ 2012 season would be similar to Sanchez’s 2011, you’d probably gasp and say no way. Yet, the evidence points to that being more likely right now, than your projection does.
I hope you’re right, I just think if you are ranking these guys you should do it based on evidence and check their team uniform at the door.
This is 2 Marlins you’ve had me give credit to dang it.
trs86
2/13/2012-1:46pm at 1:46 pm (UTC -4)
If I based it just off of last year’s numbers wouldn’t that actually slide Freeman to the top? Fact is that most agree that Ike’s potential is now higher than Gaby. Gaby has been around longer and is older, he is now in danger of falling into the he is what he is category where as Ike is still viewed with higher potential. It is what it is… this is what I expect to happen based on numbers as well as my own thoughts. It’s not just about being a Homer, while that can factor in, it’s also about listening to and reading other’s non-partisan views who also rank Ike at the top.
To me it looks like the NL East has potential to have the best 1B in the NL for sure and overall the best in baseball 1-5. Thus there is not a lot of difference in 1-4 and they will be subjective.
Ceetar
2/13/2012-3:04pm at 3:04 pm (UTC -4)
I might actually go Freeman, Davis, Sanchez, Howard(Wiggy) giving a nod to Freeman for finishing the season healthy, but Ike will probably have the best 2012 so either way.
I’d put Sanchez above Ty and I doubt Howard comes back as early as May and hits the ground running.
Stick
2/13/2012-4:55pm at 4:55 pm (UTC -4)
“hit the ground running”
Isn’t that what he did in his last playoff AB?
Sorry, couldn’t resist.