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Real Dirty Mets Blog
by Gonzo Will
I’ll write this question with my fingers and toes crossed; If Johan Santana is healthy, how many games do you think he’ll win?
Here’s the bonus question: If Santana is healthy to pitch again, do you think he’ll get traded?
2/19/2012-9:46am at 9:46 am (UTC -4)
I’m thinking 8 wins in about 17-20 starts. ERA around 3.80+ maybe even into the low 4.00′s. Along with a trip or 3 to the DL for extended rest. If he’s showing some strength, it’s possible he could be traded, maybe even after the deadline if a team needs a stop-gap type starter for a playoff run.
2/19/2012-9:48am at 9:48 am (UTC -4)
I just don’t think he’ll contribute much this season. I especially don’t think he’ll be ready for opening day.
But let’s assume I’m wrong. That contract will make it almost impossible to move, especially mid season. Only shot is if the majority of the starts are QS and if they eat a good chunk of the contract. If that’s the case what’s the point? Might as well leave him in the rotation giving the arms down on the farm a full season to continue development.
If he does pitch at all, I expect a late start to his season and probably a DL stint or two, so 10 wins would be a bonus.
2/19/2012-9:57am at 9:57 am (UTC -4)
Normally a 5th man in the rotation isn’t needed until May, so I be they use that to their advantage with him and ease him up. It’s hard not to think there will be a rough patch where he needs to rest. 15 games would be great, that would account for almost half the season that he is around.
Thinking long term, the team won’t be able to move that contract so if he can be healthy for when those young pitchers come up, he can be a great guiding force.
2/19/2012-10:23am at 10:23 am (UTC -4)
I think he wins somewhere around 5 games and pitches 100 innings.
Santana will be a Met until the end of his contract because there is no way another team will agree to take on enough of his salary to make a trade worthwhile.
2/19/2012-10:44am at 10:44 am (UTC -4)
If healthy: 12-7 with a 3.40ish ERA in 30 starts.
Untradeable contract that I’d love to get out from under but it ain’t gonna happen. Side note: Johan on WFAN after his session Friday said he threw all pitches, his breaking stuff had late break again but he wasn’t pushing anything on velocity. First official bullpen is Tuesday – a step at a time will tell.
I don’t expect anything out of him this season, or ever.
2/19/2012-11:19am at 11:19 am (UTC -4)
I will go with 45% of his starts.
2/19/2012-11:22am at 11:22 am (UTC -4)
also, he won’t be traded.
I am actually with Haz here. I don’t actually expect him to ever pitch for the Mets again, so anything they get out of him will be “found money”.
2/19/2012-11:34am at 11:34 am (UTC -4)
11-ish in wins. Maybe like 11-10 or something like that.
And I would think he may be traded, but certainly not this year. Maybe once he’s down to 1 year left, but more likely we take this contract to the end.
2/19/2012-2:58pm at 2:58 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t expect him to stay healthy much, but assuming he does, I’ll say he contributes about 5 wins. I expect a slower velocity from his fastball, which makes his whole pitch repertoire worse and he’ll get smacked around a lot.
2/19/2012-10:28pm at 10:28 pm (UTC -4)
Santana obviously won’t start off on fire… the guy has missed a lengthy amount of time. However, if he is able to pitch… I give him 10-12 wins.
Let’s not forget. Santana never gave up on any game and I am pretty sure he’ll give it all he’s got until his arms fall off.
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2/19/2012-11:49pm at 11:49 pm (UTC -4)
I think you’re all underestimating him. A lot of guys come back from elbow surgeries and are fine. He’ll win 17. The big question mark is Pelfrey. If he can produce the way he can on a consistent basis, we could be looking at a playoff team. Niese, Dickey, and Gee aren’t flashy, but they’re very good pitchers who can win games. Johan and Pelfrey need to answer some questions. The pen is beefed up and could potentially be the strength of the ballclub. The lineup… well… got some .300 hitters! Murphy, Davis, and Wright can all tear the cover off the ball and with the fences moved in, maybe Bay can do the same. We all know Duda has great power and will be a threat. All we need is a catcher who can catch and I’m drinkin to kool aide!!! We’re in a TOUGH division, but I believe, even if we finish in 4th, we’ll crack .500. Playoffs aren’t out of the question. DON’T LOSE HOPE!
2/20/2012-12:59am at 12:59 am (UTC -4)
You actually think Santana will have the arm strength after all this time off to pitch enough games to win 17? And if he’s lost any velocity at all, those already declining peripheral stats could fall off big time. Obviously everything could go miraculously right and he could win 17 games, but I’d put the probability of that happening at a mathematically trivial number.
And I believe effective recovery from that anterior capsule surgery he had is questionable at best. It’s nice to try to be optimistic about his recovery and effectiveness, but I think you’re on the delusional extreme of that if you think he’s winning 17 games.
Gee and Niese are definitely not ‘very good’ pitchers at the moment. Gee is serviceable as a back end guy, and Niese has yet to show much more than that at this point.
Rauch, Francisco, and RamRam coming in and turning a terrible bullpen into a strength? Sorry, I don’t buy that for a second.
In the end this team will score a fair amount of runs, give up a ton of runs with lousy pitching and horrendous defense, and will be extremely lucky to win 80 games.
2/20/2012-8:14am at 8:14 am (UTC -4)
If it was only an elbow surgery. It was a shoulder surgery for Santana. That’s like the black kiss of death. Here’s to hoping that modern medicine and the Mets Medical Staff (insert eyes rolling and maniacal laughter here) can get him back on the mound and up to 75% of his former glory.
2/20/2012-11:09am at 11:09 am (UTC -4)
My worry about him is if his shoulder will hold up to the use. I actually think his stuff might be better (and the early reports seem to bear that out) since he was so limited at the end (pitching with the tear). So, just maybe being able to finish his motion will keep the FB from losing anything.
Hey, gotta hope for something, right?
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