This is the first of my series of player predictions and statistical projections for the 2012 season. They’re based on a secret, scientific, proprietary mathematical formula that I will reveal at the end of the year. After coming up with my own projections, I went back and checked those of FanGraphs. In many cases, we were almost in lockstep. In others, there was a great disparity. At the end of the season, I’ll compare my projections with FanGraphs’, and we’ll see whose projections were closest to reality.
Also, in the interest of brevity, I will only include “glamour stats.” Besides, it’s hard to calculate everyone’s xFIP when you have a full-time job.
Without further ado, here’s Josh Thole.
Josh Thole, C
Josh Thole has a lot to prove in 2012.
Perhaps more than any other Met, Josh Thole has the most to prove in 2012. The Mets are prepared to lean heavily on him this year, hoping that he’ll be the productive hitter and solid catcher they envisioned. He’ll have to be, since doesn’t have the safety net of a veteran backup anymore, with the departure of Ronny Paulino.
Thole hit over .300 twice in the minor leagues, leading many to predict the same of him in the majors. However, he’s struggled with consistency since his call up in 2010. Last Spring, he tore up the Grapefruit League to the tune of a .375 batting average with 3 home runs. When the regular season started, he tried to pull the ball more and hit for power, which robbed him of his ability to make consistent contact.
After shortening his swing in June, he hit .292 the rest of the way to finish with a .268 batting average.
The real concern for Thole comes when he is behind the plate. He led the NL with 16 passed balls. In fairness, 11 of those came while catching knuckleballer R.A. Dickey. He did have the third best fielding percentage among NL catchers, however (.997).
If he stays within himself, he should be fine at the plate, but the real improvement needs to occur when he is behind it.
Projection: .291, 6 HR, 53 RBI
FanGraphs: .276, 5 HR, 60 RBI
7 comments
Mr North Jersey
2/21/2012-9:42am at 9:42 am (UTC -4)
Paul did you see the article where Thole talks about watching video that showed him changing his stance behind the plate 4 times in 2 innings? He spoke how that just can’t happen and working on correcting it.
Not something big I suppose but something to work on.
trs86
2/21/2012-10:16am at 10:16 am (UTC -4)
I will play:
.285 4 48.
NJstuckinTX
2/21/2012-10:50am at 10:50 am (UTC -4)
My prediction was right along you picks, with a lower averge (.275-ish).
I’d like to see what the over/under is on his CS%… If he could actually catch a good game, I wouldn’t care so much on the .285/4/48.
Stick
2/21/2012-1:08pm at 1:08 pm (UTC -4)
.285/4/48 isn’t really that bad for a catcher though, assuming he gets a fair amount of time off (no way he is going to be a 150 game iron man!)
MetsFan4Decades
2/21/2012-11:15am at 11:15 am (UTC -4)
‘it’s hard to calculate everyone’s xFIP when you have a full-time job.’
LOL….thank you since I wouldn’t have a clue…..
I’m going a little lower than most of my fellow Met fans here – more in line with Fangraphs:
.270 6 HRs and I’ll take the over – just a bit on the 60 RBIs.
I’d love to be wrong on this – like Paul’s projections so much better.
But given he’s coming off a not so good year with the bat, he’s obviously concentrating on his defensive skills and he’s likely to hit in the bottom of the order, it might be a little optimistic to predict much higher than this.
SaltyGary
2/21/2012-11:17am at 11:17 am (UTC -4)
I am so down on Thole, I really hope he can prove me wrong.
oleosmirf
2/21/2012-12:42pm at 12:42 pm (UTC -4)
it’s Spring Training already? and I’ll weigh in on Mr. Thole
.275/.355 4 HR 52 RBI