Feb 26
I think Terry Collins is a perfect fit for the Mets right now. I love his drive, determination and most of all… his optimism.
Terry Collins stated that the Mets were going to surprise people this season. He also said that they would be a lot better than people expected.
What do you think? Will the Mets be better than what people expect and can they “surprise” people and us fans?
MLBTradeRumors
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25 comments
SaltyGary
2/26/2012-9:29am at 9:29 am (UTC -4)
I’ll wait for others to post, no need to start with pessimism. In the meantime, Mmmmm Donuts….
darknova306
2/26/2012-3:34pm at 3:34 pm (UTC -4)
Mmm, donuts and coffee
Stickguy
2/26/2012-9:37am at 9:37 am (UTC -4)
yes, and yes.
Not saying the odds are high they will be winning 90+ and cruising into the playoffs. But, there is enough talent on hand that you can make the case that it could happen.
I honestly think that the pile on mentality (fans worse than media in many cases) has gone too far. I just don’t see a mid 60s win team, with 70 being the “pie in the sky, if a miracle happens” outcome.
maybe I am too optimistic, but I expect a few guys to take the next step up (Neise for one), and will assume normal health for a change. Combined with a never say die grinder mentality. All combining into a team that other teams laugh at at first, then start to hate facing.
Would be nice if they played in one of the patsy divisions, but can’t do anything about that. So who knows, maybe the other teams for a change will get slaughtered by injuries to all their important players!
gategem
2/26/2012-6:11pm at 6:11 pm (UTC -4)
Your scenario might work out if this was a College or High School Football team but in a sport that relies so heavily on talent what you describe would be a stretch. But if you could make a case based upon facts and not if and if and if and if and could be, etc. I would join in your optimism. In the meantime everything based upon facts (see http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/ as an example) that I’ve seen and not on pure supposition points to about 75 to 80 wins.
MetsFan4Decades
2/26/2012-7:29pm at 7:29 pm (UTC -4)
Haven’t looked the at the link but given the fact that the only position player we have that could be in the conversation of top 10 right now in both lagues is our third baseman.
That includes no real ace and a closure who wouldn’t be included in the top 10 discussion either. Doesn’t really inspire predictions of a winning season.
Ceetar
2/27/2012-2:49pm at 2:49 pm (UTC -4)
Santana may actually start games.
But then there is Dickey. Dickey could be the Ace on more teams than Pelfrey wouldn’t start for.
what ‘people’ think? well yeah, since it’s a bunch of pessimists. the over bet in Vegas is easy money. I suspect at the very least this team will be better than last year.
Stick
2/27/2012-3:55pm at 3:55 pm (UTC -4)
I agree about being better is the important guys (wright, davis) can stay on the field, in one piece.
Of course, if they get slaughtered by injuries to every player doing anything, all bets are off.
Ceetar
2/27/2012-4:54pm at 4:54 pm (UTC -4)
true of any team of course. There’s some luck to that. The Mets will probably have to get more lucky than the rest of the division to ultimately be successful though.
Hazmet
2/26/2012-10:28am at 10:28 am (UTC -4)
With the boys of summer starting to take the field in Port St. Lonesome the field of dreams wishes & hopes that rise each spring for my favorite baseball squad start to roil about my head. As such, with the season just over the horizon I’ll try to ponder this question with some reflection to past seasons. Here it goes:
Will the Mets be better than some people think and can they surprise some people? Well yes, of course. But then again I’m the eternal optimist that actually bought the concept that maybe just maybe Brad Eamus could be Chase Utley light. Man, I’ll never live that one down. Well at least NY sports has given us Victor Cruz and Linsanity of late so anything is possible, except usually when it comes to the Mets. So do I expect they’ll be better? Well, no but they may show stretches or glimpses of better days to come.
In looking at the past 2 seasons we had 2010 where Jerry had the team to 11 games over .500 by the end of June. This was done on the backs of a resurgent Francouer, Rod Barajas imitating Babe Ruth for a few months, Angel Pagan playing up to his potential and the emergence of Ike Davis. The rallying cry as I recall was wait till we get Carlos back and eventually Maine will come around and the Reyes thyroid issue should be behind us so August & September could be special. After all, anything is possible? Well we all know what happened. Maine was shot, Carlos was still broken, we lost Santana, and Wright go drilled in the head. In 2011, we muddled around .500 for most of the season on the back of a resurgent Beltran and Reyes having a career year and a Reyes year. You know, other worldly and then injured. The rallying cry in 2011 was hang in there till we get Johan back. Well we know how 2011 turned out too.
Which brings me to reflecting on other past seasons. At the end of the Valentine Era from 1997-2002 we had a season in 2001 where we muddled around .500 and finished at 82-80 and then in 2002 we crashed to 75-86. Of course this was pinned on the Manager but the real issue was the teams imports were either aging or shot and the minor league cupboard was bare. We then discovered that there wasn’t enough electricity in NYC to light the lightbulb that was Art Howe and the room remained dark. And, the minor league cupboard was still bare outside of Wright & Reyes. Which brings us to the Omar & Willie show where ownership spent to bring in talent and the 2005 Mets gave us an 83-79 record and the beginning of an up trend based on imports and 2 home grown guys. So I look at this season two ways:
1) We could be the 2002 Mets of 75-86 entering into a prolonged period waiting to get out from under the Santana & Bay contracts. or,
2) We could be the 2005 Mets of 83-79 but instead of entering a period of success in coming years by virtue of imports we could see this from emerging home grown talent of Duda, Davis, Niese, with Havens, Wheeler, Harvey, and Famila in the wings.
I’d like to think and will believe in scenario 2 above but I believe what we’re going to get is #1.
kingman 26
2/26/2012-10:30am at 10:30 am (UTC -4)
Well, while I am not optimistic overall, I do like Collins a lot, and if things break right, I could see .500.
But to me, every area of the team is pretty undeniably mediocre. Santana’s a question mark, Dickey is good, and Niese/Pelf/Gee have put together solid careers of total mediocrity thus far. And there’s zero insurance if any of them get hurt. Must keep the future kids in the minors for now.
The pen replaced KRod and Izzy with Francisco and Rauch, two keys to a bad Toronto bullpen.
And the offense did score decently last year, with no power, and we lost Reyes and Beltran, the two best offensive players. It’s fun to imagine Ike and Duda as two 30+ HR sluggers and Bay and Wright recovering their form of several years ago, but all of that would have to happen to have a pretty good offense.
Overall, I see a team with the potential to win some games based on scrappiness and manufacturing runs, but the schedule will be brutal, and replacing Reyes at the top of the order with Torres will very quickly be shown to be a major downgrade.
I think 75+ wins is a reasonable expectation.
MetsFan4Decades
2/26/2012-10:32am at 10:32 am (UTC -4)
There’s some real talent on this team – and some potential real talent.
I think one or two of the young’uns will take a step forward this year and surprise. Niese, Duda, Murph, Thole, Tejada, Ike…..Should be fun to watch.
We also have the potential of watching Wright, Bay, Johan, Pelfrey, etc. have bounce back years.
Should be fun to watch, as they’re saying. But I can’t predict how many games they’ll win right now. Too many unknowns, not the least of which is the SP.
As far as TC, I like what he brings to the table right now. I just hope that ‘intensity’ doesn’t start to wear a but thin if this team isn’t playing well.
darknova306
2/26/2012-3:59pm at 3:59 pm (UTC -4)
What exactly is Collins supposed to say? Should he not sound optimistic?
Yes, the Mets will surprise some people. Given the wide range of fans’ mentalities, it would be impossible for some people to not be surprised no matter how many games the team wins.
The rotation is really pretty bad. Unless you have the pie in the sky view that Pelfrey will be 2010 Pelf, Gee will blossom, Niese will finally take that elusive step forward, and Santana will be healthy and not diminished. Hah! Good luck with that.
The bullpen went from horrendous to mediocre. Even with half a season of KRod, the 2011 bullpen was in the bottom third of the NL. Rauch and Francisco don’t pull this bullpen out of that bottom third in my mind.
And everyone wants to look at the drawn in fences and expect Bay and Wright to be “fixed” and go back to career “norms” they haven’t seen in years. If it does have any impact, it will likely be a very negative one for the rotation. Pelfrey especially is going to get killed with the new smaller park.
In the end, I expect the team will win 73-77 games with normal injury rates and without Bay or Wright “returning to form”. It’ll be another disappointing year with some flashes of brilliance that will get the Ceetars of the world pounding the “I told ya so” war drums before the team solidifies 4th place. They seem to love pitching way over their heads in June of recent years, so I’ll say they finally fall off into mediocrity a little before July (unless that early brutal April/May schedule crushes them too quickly).
gategem
2/26/2012-6:24pm at 6:24 pm (UTC -4)
One of my favorite tales is that of a Cubs manager when asked on the first day of ST where the team would place that year told the press and then owner PK Wrigley the club would finish last. He was fired that same day. So you’re correct. What could TC say?
darknova306
2/26/2012-6:27pm at 6:27 pm (UTC -4)
Hah! Exactly. Also, for a team like this to prove themselves, they have to buy into a positive message from the start, so TC being anything less than over the top would kill any remote hope they had.
SaltyGary
2/26/2012-5:32pm at 5:32 pm (UTC -4)
Last year I said 73 wins, I was off by five and I believe the team will be a couple games worse.
I feel they made improvements in the bullpen. Even though they lost Reyes and Beltran, I feel the offense could rise up to the same levels. The rotation is where I see the most issues. They are just not going to put up the innings and that will but a huge burden on the bullpen. I am thinking 69 wins this season but I will wait a little before fully committing. I may go up and doubt I will go down.
NJstuckinTX
2/26/2012-6:28pm at 6:28 pm (UTC -4)
I’m already burned out on TC.
I do think this team is going to be a scrappy team. And I do think that they will be better than anticipated, but that’s about playing to .500. We’ll see. Really need to have Santana healthy. If he isn’t, this team is playing to expectations, and said expectations is 69-ish wins…
trs86
2/26/2012-9:29pm at 9:29 pm (UTC -4)
Burned out on Collins? Hell in my opinion he is the one reason this team might be able to over achieve.
NJstuckinTX
2/27/2012-8:53am at 8:53 am (UTC -4)
Yes, burned out. I wasn’t a fan of the hire and I’ve never been a fan of Napoleon types. Yes, he did a decent job last year, nothing great. But, I’m telling you, he is going to get all up in some peoples faces one too many times and you’ll have the same situation where he was run out of town as in his other managing jobs. Which would probably be to plan with Backmann or Tuefel sliding into the job down the line.
trs86
2/27/2012-10:43am at 10:43 am (UTC -4)
Ever thought that what this group needs is a guy all up in their faces? We are not looking for a permanent solution anyway. Also, you think Terry is an in your face guy? Think about that times 10 with no sense of reason and you get Backman.
trs86
2/27/2012-10:48am at 10:48 am (UTC -4)
What I am trying to determine is where he has really even been in the face? Other than getting on Tejada which I think most managers would have done.
NJstuckinTX
2/27/2012-11:12am at 11:12 am (UTC -4)
In your face was probably the wrong term to use on my part. Maybe hardline fanatical type? Hardass? Either way, the fact he is getting onto Tejada about not showing up early, specifically to the media, just rubs the wrong way, in my mind. You keep that in house. You want to splinter a clubhouse? You chat through the media.
trs86
2/27/2012-11:32am at 11:32 am (UTC -4)
While I agree that most things should be kept in house, I think the occasional blast to the public is fine as well. It can’t be something he does 90% but it can be something he does 10%.
MetsFan4Decades
2/27/2012-11:45am at 11:45 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, I’m not sure why so many are high on Backman.
His minor league style of managing from what I’ve seen scares me just a bit. That won’t translate well at the major league level.
trs86
2/27/2012-1:10pm at 1:10 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed, could be Tuefel though and honestly does anyone even know what kind of manager he is? LOL.
gategem
2/27/2012-6:43pm at 6:43 pm (UTC -4)
Backman is a Billy Martin type. When you remove all the associated nonsense of the “Bronx Zoo” you find that Steinbrenner made proper use of Martin. When Martin’s in your face and over the top attitude started to wear on the players Steinbrenner would replace Martin with a laid back Bob Lemon. Then when the players would no longer respond to Lemon Martin was brought back.