My player projections continue around the horn with…
Ruben Tejada, SS
Tejada enters the 2012 season with the biggest spikes to fill on the team. Even though there is no comparison, he will be compared to the departed Jose Reyes as the season goes on (usually following the comment, “I’m not comparing Tejada to Reyes, BUT…”).
Ruben showed the ability to be a solid line-drive hitter in 2011. He doesn’t hit for power, and when he did get into the habit of overswinging, he struggled. But he could be a nice contact hitter as his career progresses. His batting average could even scare.300 this year before the rigors of a full major league season at shortstop take their toll.
I’m not comparing Tejada to Reyes, BUT Ruben seemed a little tentative at short last year, and didn’t seem as polished as Reyes. For example, he looked much more comfortable turning the double play as a second baseman. As a result, he’ll have to prove himself in the field as well as at the plate.
Projection: .257, 1 HR, 41 RBI
FanGraphs: .274, 2 HR, 62 RBI
Next up: David Wright.
24 comments
NJstuckinTX
2/29/2012-9:05am at 9:05 am (UTC -4)
I think he’ll hit more than 2 HRs. maybe 5 or so.
MetsFan4Decades
2/29/2012-9:14am at 9:14 am (UTC -4)
There seems to be two camps weighing in on Tejada.
(1) – good everyday fielding SS
(2) – utility MI infielder
Right now, I’m not convinced Ruben will hit enough to be an everyday SS. Hoping he proves me wrong this year.
For right now, I’m leaning more towards your projection than FanGraphs.
Joe Gomez
2/29/2012-9:27am at 9:27 am (UTC -4)
But don’t worry, if Tejada fails, the Mets have other options in …..well….uh God.. who is next on line? Cedeno? I’m impressed.
Ceetar
2/29/2012-9:52am at 9:52 am (UTC -4)
Valdespin maybe.
Tejada gets on base, so that’s nice. with Ike/Lucas/David and maybe even Jason in the middle, that should translate to runs without having to hit a billion triples.
darknova306
2/29/2012-10:02am at 10:02 am (UTC -4)
Whenever you talk about how great this 2012 offense will be, I can’t help but think back to your “sign Reyes or else” comment in October and laugh.
Ceetar
2/29/2012-10:49am at 10:49 am (UTC -4)
both are still true. They’re going to start further in the red in terms of fan interest/attendance because of Reyes.
But the offense is still the best in the division.
oleosmirf
2/29/2012-10:05am at 10:05 am (UTC -4)
I don’t see Tejada as anything more than a light hitting, good but not great defensive shortstop.
I would project .260 2 HR 45 RBI
trs86
2/29/2012-10:16am at 10:16 am (UTC -4)
I think I see a young Alex Cora. Don’t get me wrong, there’s nothing wrong with that. Cora was a big help as a young guy and someone who could get on base, hit and run, run the bases intelligently, solid fielder and played the game at a high intelligence level.
However, expecting him at this point to be more than that is reaching.
.255, 3 HR, RBI? who cares?
I think OBP he is looking at .345-.355.
Ceetar
2/29/2012-10:55am at 10:55 am (UTC -4)
RBi and HR are irrelevant anyway.
If he can keep his OBP above .350 it’ll be nice. He improve his walk rate and his strikeout rate from 2010 to 2011 in more PA, and he’s still quite young so further improvement isn’t out of the question to counteract an expected BABIP drop that’ll lower his AVG/OBP.
MetsFan4Decades
2/29/2012-11:39am at 11:39 am (UTC -4)
‘RBi and HR are irrelevant anyway.’
Somewhere, Bayonne is tearing his hair out reading this. LOL…..
Stick
2/29/2012-11:47am at 11:47 am (UTC -4)
just ask Alex over there. Not looking at RBIs = LOSER!
Ceetar
2/29/2012-11:51am at 11:51 am (UTC -4)
well, i meant it more in a ‘top of the line up’ type of way, and no one’s expecting power from Tejada. That’s not what’s going to be what makes him a good or bad SS.
but yes, just giving HR/RBI numbers is basically worthless anyway.
fongulalou
2/29/2012-11:36am at 11:36 am (UTC -4)
Sounds like Dougie Flynn to me.
Hellofva drop off.
MetsFan4Decades
2/29/2012-11:41am at 11:41 am (UTC -4)
Oh for crying out loud…..Reese Havens held back from workouts nursing a stiff back.
I’m starting to think this kid’s body just isn’t going to hold up enough to ever play.
Here’s hoping it’s nothing major.
Stick
2/29/2012-12:13pm at 12:13 pm (UTC -4)
better not be more than the usual beginning of camp aches and pians, combined with being overly cautious. because he needs to play this year. He owes me.
fongulalou
2/29/2012-12:13pm at 12:13 pm (UTC -4)
I wouldn’t count on ANYTHING from Havens. For goodness sake,
he can’t get through a season w/o missing signifcant time every year. Hasn’t dominated at any level despite being an older, more polished hitting coming out of college.
Mes think Tejada is gonna be a nice Cora/Izturis type MLBer who may mature into an Alfonso type w/o as much power.
It’s gonna be a long season…….
trs86
2/29/2012-12:42pm at 12:42 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, at some point you have to wonder if he has a low pain threshold.
Stick
2/29/2012-12:10pm at 12:10 pm (UTC -4)
I think either set could be close, but I would go with the lower ones.
Interesting though comparing him to Reyes, because if you go back to young/cheap Reyes (his first 3 years), he really wasn’t all that productive. exciting, but not that “good” based on output.
first 2 years (~250PAs each) were really relatively weak, as in the numbers above would be an improvement. And even 2005 (his first full year), outside of his gaudy SB totals, were pretty average.
heck, his slash #s in 2005: .273 .300 .386 .687 certainly don’t jump out as being anything special. 60 SBs help (if you are into that sort of thing!), but in 700 PAs 7 HRs and 58 RBIs is not that much, even for a lead off hitter.
I think my point (if I have one) is that the numbers abouve would be pretty darned good for someone at the point in their career that ruben is at.
And hell, outside of the first 3 month of 2011, since the beginning of 2009, Jose mostly was not much better than that.
fongulalou
2/29/2012-12:18pm at 12:18 pm (UTC -4)
Thing is though his speed made him a high impact player from day one though. He got on and Pitchers were bothered and distracted from their first duty…Focusing on the hitter.
Another example of how numbers just don’t measure a players importance or lack of……….
trs86
2/29/2012-12:44pm at 12:44 pm (UTC -4)
You do have to look at the entire package for sure.
gategem
2/29/2012-2:40pm at 2:40 pm (UTC -4)
I wouldn’t compare Tajada to Jose. It’s just not fair to Tajada to do so. Jose was (and is) much more talented that Tajada ever will be. Jose’s tool set was (and is) far superior to Tajada’s tool set. Jose’s upside was huge whereas Tajada’s potential is much more modest. Even if Tajada’s stats are initially similar to Jose’s at the start of their respective careers there are times when even the most potent of stats can be misleading. Sometimes the stats have to be quantified.
Stick
2/29/2012-3:36pm at 3:36 pm (UTC -4)
still, it does point out that not every player comes out the chute “good”.
And in general, talent (tool sets!) don’t always translate into output. Sometimes guys that aren’t really flashy end up being more productive.
no, I am not saying Tejada is going to be the level of player Jose is, but I am pretty sure they will be a different type!
MetsFan4Decades
2/29/2012-9:47pm at 9:47 pm (UTC -4)
I’ll be happy if Tejada hits enough with a decent OBP to move into the lead off spot. Apologies to ‘the core’ over at MMO.
wanny
3/1/2012-9:47pm at 9:47 pm (UTC -4)
i’m more optimistic on tejada. he’s got a good approach at the plate and what seems like a higher baseball IQ than jose reyes and rey ordonez combined.
he reminds me of a young edgardo alfonzo. eddie didnt have much power to start either.
this season i will say .275/360/375