My player projections continue around the horn with…
David Wright, 3B
Expect a big year from Wright. With visions of the Great Wall of Flushing no longer dancing in his head, there is reason to believe he will tone down his uppercut, strike out less, and hit for a higher average – like the pre-2009 David.
Considering he hit 29 home runs in 2010, before the modified walls at Citi, he should replicate or exceed that number in 2012, if (wait for it), he’s fully recovered from his back injury, and stays healthy in general.
He’ll still struggle with his throws from third base, but having Ike Davis around for a full season (if, if, if) will help absorb some of his mistakes.
The question of which team he’ll be playing for come August will follow him all season, much as it did Jose Reyes last year, but he should be strong enough to handle the talk. His contract runs until 2013 which leads many to believe he will stay a Met for the entirety of 2012.
Projection: .303, 30 HR, 102 RBI
FanGraphs: .289, 25 HR, 97 RBI
Next week: The starting outfield.
31 comments
Ceetar
3/1/2012-12:10pm at 12:10 pm (UTC -4)
I’m gonna say David replicates his .924 OPS from 2008. probably closer to 25 than 30 homers, but closer to 115 or so RBI based on Torres (and Murphy after him) leading off and doing well.
wanny
3/1/2012-9:35pm at 9:35 pm (UTC -4)
you view andres torres atop the order as a good thing???
kingman 26
3/2/2012-11:02am at 11:02 am (UTC -4)
LOL!
Did you note who posted this comment?
Torres will be among the worst–if not THE worst–leadoff men in the game.
Ceetar
3/2/2012-11:32am at 11:32 am (UTC -4)
back from the future I see?
It was more a nod to Murphy than Torres.
Pagan may lead off for the Giants and you hate him. Torres has to beat him out right?
trs86
3/1/2012-12:42pm at 12:42 pm (UTC -4)
My turn:
.293, 27 HR, 95 RBI
Stick
3/1/2012-12:45pm at 12:45 pm (UTC -4)
should have just gone with 99 RBIs, and you would have pretty much exactly split the difference!
gategem
3/1/2012-1:11pm at 1:11 pm (UTC -4)
TRS I just saw (over at MMO) that your team went 15-10 and finished 3rd and I wanted to extend my congratulations to you and your team. It speaks well for your coaching talent, your character and the character of your team.
They were still discussing those dreadful underdog Tee Shirts and the reactions to it. I believe that as a motivational tool for a short series or a playoff game it can be very helpful. But over a 162 game series I doubt if it will have much of a long term effect. As Ralph Kiner used to say (and I paraphrase) over a long season baseball teams and players, like water, tend to seek their own level. I guess this is baseball parlance for regression toward the mean.
gategem
3/1/2012-2:16pm at 2:16 pm (UTC -4)
TRS, your comment on Frank Thomas got me wondering what was Babe Ruth’s lifetime OPS+. Ruth’s lifetime OPS+ was 206 and his peak value occurred in 1920 and his OPS+ for that year was an unbelievable 255.
Stick
3/1/2012-12:44pm at 12:44 pm (UTC -4)
Both of those look reasonable. I agree with Ceetar that he could trend higher in RBIs if he does not go on the DL, but I don’t think he is going that high on OPS. Might push .900, which is still pretty damned good.
Ceetar
3/1/2012-1:48pm at 1:48 pm (UTC -4)
might be a little high as I imagine he’s batting third. Bay could probably bunt his way to 100 batting 5th in this lineup
NJstuckinTX
3/1/2012-1:02pm at 1:02 pm (UTC -4)
I’ll take even the lower of the 2 projections. Having Ike back and healthy for hopefully the full year, as well as Murphy, should bode well for him seeing some better pitches.
I’m sure those projections are basis no hits during clutch ABs? Kidding, Kidding…
Stick
3/1/2012-3:52pm at 3:52 pm (UTC -4)
Yes Alex, don’t worry.
gategem
3/1/2012-1:27pm at 1:27 pm (UTC -4)
I have my fingers crossed that Wright will have a bounce back season driven by good health, shortened outfield fences and good hitters behind him. But I’m still concerned about his back and the lingering effects of Mr. Cain’s fastball to Mr. Wright’s head. I’ve seen too many players, even after the physical symptoms of a concussion are gone, never fully overcome the mental effects of a fastball to the head.
Paul, as a professional writer and blogger, perhaps you can explain the love affair that many sports writers, bloggers and people that comment have with the word plenty. The word is so overused that it should be banned.
Paul Festa
3/1/2012-4:41pm at 4:41 pm (UTC -4)
It’s awfully vague, isn’t it? I’m in favor of banning the word “literally,” since that gets so abused, especially by the sports media.
LGNYM
3/1/2012-1:29pm at 1:29 pm (UTC -4)
Its hard to project RBI given they are team dependent….but overall I think he’ll probably be closer to the fangraphs projection (maybe with a few more HR) than the more optimistic one here.
OPS wise I don’t know about him bouncing back to those great levels. I’d love it, but the way he’s looked the past few yrs I don’t expect it. And offense in the league overall is down a bit. But I think the low walk rate in 2010 was somewhat of a fluke, so I can see him improving upon his OBP of the past couple yrs. If he gets the BA up into the .280s again I think he can get the OBP back around .370…maybe settling in with an OPS around .875 or so.
Ceetar
3/1/2012-1:50pm at 1:50 pm (UTC -4)
That’s true on the offense being down thing. There’s something to the bat diameter shrinking that has to be taken into account when wondering if guys will hit for power like even a couple of years ago.
MetsFan4Decades
3/1/2012-3:02pm at 3:02 pm (UTC -4)
I’m in agreement with this.
Stick
3/1/2012-3:57pm at 3:57 pm (UTC -4)
question for this (much more rational) group, based on some “discussion” over at Joe’s place.
what is the concensuss opinion on Wright’s “D” at this point? I actually watch very few games so can’t really say what he looks like. A few guys there are arguing that he is terrible, worst defensive 3B in the league, stuff like that.
And I also hd plenty of feedback from a comment (seemed rational to me) about his back last year must have had an impact on his #s.
so, what say the people that watch a lot of games? My take is that he has had some throwing issues (and really needs to ditch that sidearm crap), but that he was above average at the fielding part (getting to balls, catching them, etc – IOW, palying the position) and was particularly adept at coming in on a slow roller. And that most of his errors came on throws?
If so, seems that with some work on the throwing he will eb the least of our worries (and should not be lumped in with Murphy (and maybe Duda) as defensively challeneged guys that could hurt the team inthe field!
Paul Festa
3/1/2012-4:38pm at 4:38 pm (UTC -4)
I agree that he needs to stop throwing sidearm. He throws sinkers to first base. My observation would be that everything is fine about his D except his throwing.
Ceetar
3/1/2012-4:45pm at 4:45 pm (UTC -4)
I find this hard to judge, because the metrics are mostly crap if not all crap, but it has suddenly become commonplace to say he’s terrible, and I have seen some fairly well thought out posts about his poor defense.
I think that’s overstating it. He’s definitely not terrible, and he really hasn’t had a huge issue with throws lately.
He’s not an extreme range guy, maybe even below average, but he’s not Jeter. We know he comes in really well.
He wasn’t good last year, but he was playing for at least a month with a bad back and back pain. He then came back pretty quickly and got really no reps or practice. repetition plays in to defense. He was very very streaky on defense, and I feel like how badly he played it returning from the injury is a big part, both in metrics and in perception, of his overall talent. The problem is sample size, and even a bad week is enough to completely destroy a season. There were plenty of times he was playing the position pretty well though, and like most positive things, that gets overlooked.
In a more broader sense, I’d say he does have a little trouble going to his left. I don’t know if that’s simply positioning, fatigue, or poor mechanics. He will occasionally muff a throw, but I’m not sure that that’s not more common than any other third baseman. He certainly seems to have plenty of arm strength.
My overall evaluation would peg him at slightly above average, with the tendency to slump occasionally. True defensive studs tend never to slump in the field, which is why they also seem so steady even if they’re not always as obvious about it. He’s not a problem there and he doesn’t need a new position.
LGNYM
3/1/2012-6:16pm at 6:16 pm (UTC -4)
I am not sure. If you look at the metrics, they do rate him as the worst 3b in baseball over the last 3 years …with a UZR of -31, with the main problem being not the errors…but a huge drop off in range.
I don’t take the metrics at 100% validity…the measures aren’t perfect, but I think they probably are at least on the right track. I think Wright probably had been bad (I don’t think the numbers would be that far off if he was good), but I am not convinced he’s been sooo bad that he’s the absolute worst in the league.
Using the “eye test” I didn’t notice him looking terrible there in 2009 or 2010, but he did seem to be noticeably struggling last year…but I think that’s likely attributable to being hurt and then struggling a bit to get back into game shape/up to game speed after being shut down for so long
kingman 26
3/1/2012-7:17pm at 7:17 pm (UTC -4)
“concensuss”
oh man
stick
3/1/2012-9:48pm at 9:48 pm (UTC -4)
smack ass.
wanny
3/1/2012-10:09pm at 10:09 pm (UTC -4)
i’ve been away for the offseason and i come back to find you guys groping rear ends?
stick
3/1/2012-10:31pm at 10:31 pm (UTC -4)
but at least we are respectful to each other!
Paul Festa
3/1/2012-10:32pm at 10:32 pm (UTC -4)
People go stir crazy in the winter, ya know.
gategem
3/2/2012-1:54am at 1:54 am (UTC -4)
It’s a byproduct of spending so much time at MMO.
Paul Festa
3/1/2012-10:31pm at 10:31 pm (UTC -4)
LOL.
Mr North Jersey
3/1/2012-8:08pm at 8:08 pm (UTC -4)
Wright’s biggest issue for me definitely was his throwing. When he side arms a ball I hold my breath. I will say that when I think about it I’d say his defense regressed overall last season more than in years past and I say it mostly because there were many times last season where he did a poor job to get in front of balls that he looked to be able to and instead rather try to pick em on a hop both to his left and right that got away from him.
Was it due to his back? I don’t know but that was one of the things that stood out to me for whatever reason.
Hazmet
3/1/2012-9:06pm at 9:06 pm (UTC -4)
Agree with the statements here. Sidearm’s gotta be ditched except for the slow roller he excels at. Gotta sidearm that one. But I don’t think we’re going to see him going over the top with his throws anytime soon. One thing I didn’t see commented on was his positioning. Especially after the 7th inning. My preference is to guard the line late in games but Terry believes in shading towards the hole even in late innings. This could be compensating for a lost step that Terry may know more about from up close. All things considered I was only half kidding late last year when I suggested moving him to RF and rolling Duda to LF. If Havens pushes his way up where’s he going to play? The thought was, hell we’re gonna suck defensively anyway just go all in and move Bay to CF, Wright to Right, Duda in LF, Murph to third, and slide Reese into second. If this crazed idea is an indication: Yes, Haz is worried about David’s decline at third. Ironic he broke his back on a hustling D play to dive and tag what’s his name on the Astros last year.
Hazmet
3/1/2012-9:11pm at 9:11 pm (UTC -4)
Oh, also on UZR if he’s always shaded toward short instead of a normal third base position his UZR is going to suck because he has twice as far to go to his right for balls down the line and is out of position to start with for balls that would typically be right at third. At least as per my sparse understanding of UZR Wrights third base zone is skewed towards short vs. the norm.