There’s always talk about the “breakout year” for a player.
Lucas Duda seems to be on the verge of that, so they say.
Today’s question: Is Lucas Duda for real? Can he be a player that has a large impact on the Mets?
Mar 04
The Sunday Question
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39 comments
Ceetar
3/4/2012-10:20am at 10:20 am (UTC -4)
It wasn’t like he was up for 20 minutes, he had 347 PA last year. That’s well beyond small sample size. And he got better each month.
And it didn’t come out of nowhere either. His numbers reflect a pretty typical drop off from what he put up in the minors before being called up.
MikeMr.Muttt
3/4/2012-10:29am at 10:29 am (UTC -4)
Duda is a big strong hardworking gutsy blue-collar type of player,which the team will need plenty of to compete. However given the pitching & the Freddie & JR Coupon disaster showing no signs of positve productivity,only the resurrection of Bob Murphy & Ol’ Shea itself could help Met Nation now! It’s going to be a long ugly season,Let’s Go Mets? Or Lets’ Go Broke with Freddie “fist-o-$fives” Coupon Wilponzi!
darknova306
3/4/2012-10:35am at 10:35 am (UTC -4)
His second half OPS was pretty consistently over .900, so I wouldn’t be surprised at a pretty good year for him. It’ll be interesting to see how the league adjusts to him and all of that.
Stickguy
3/4/2012-10:41am at 10:41 am (UTC -4)
my Lord, talk about putting a fat one over the heart of the plate…
Hell yeah he is for real. I have been telling you people this for 2 years (and don’t most of you feel silly for scoffing at me at the beginning?).
He had a big year lst year, over an extended period. A full 1/2 year (80 games) once he was back up and playing regularly with an OPS well over .900 is serious output. Nice mix of power and OB, and I expect this eyar the HR totals will take a jump too, since he can drive it out of the park to any field.
some of the other things that bode well? His MiL stats his last few years were huge (AAA OPS of 1.000+), excellent plate coverage and control (works counts, situational hitting, does not K much). He also uses the whole field nicely, as opposed to being an all or nothing hacker.
Somewhat unique in a way, that he is a power guy that plays like an all around hitter. I think it comes from his college days, when he had a wrist injury that sapped his power for a while, so he developed as more of a murphy/hernandez type all around hitter, but he has now learned to really turn on pitches he can drive (without abandoning the whole field approach).
anyway, I expect a very good year at the plate, with a lot of big hits, and if he can get slotted into the 5 hole a ton of RBIs. Even hitting 6th, if bay is doing anything, he should have plenty of guys to drive in.
gategem
3/5/2012-12:41am at 12:41 am (UTC -4)
What was the nickname I gave Duda last year? Was it the Mini-Bambino or something to that effect? So as you can see I have great hope for him provided he doesn’t severely hurt himself tripping over his shadow while playing the outfield. My first gf was an aspiring ballerina and I remember her exercises and I wonder if they could help Duda’s agility and quickness so that his defensive abilities would complement is offense. Anyway here are some projections from Amazin’ Avenue:
http://www.amazinavenue.com/2012/2/29/2833061/lucas-dudas-offensive-skillset
http://www.amazinavenue.com/2012/1/19/2699628/projecting-lucas-duda-2012-defense-defensedefense
MetsFan4Decades
3/4/2012-10:51am at 10:51 am (UTC -4)
I certainly hope so. With news coming from camp on Ike’s infection, Wright’s rib cage, Hairston’s oblique, it’s shaping up to be another 2009 season.
Would be nice to have a success story or two this season.
Stickguy
3/4/2012-10:57am at 10:57 am (UTC -4)
never know in MLB, particularly with this team. Entirely possible he could be hitting clean up and/or playing 1B this year.
also a good example of why it is hard to predict on paper before the season ever starts. Sometimes you get a guy come out of relative nowhere (like the minors or the bench) and have a big year, which is never accounted for in the predictions.
I still think Havens has a chance to be the guy this year, though he really needs to get out on the field soon! Kirk seems to be getting the buzz also, and I would not be surprised to see him up by mid season. Berg did an over under, and 85%+ of voters said he would make his ML debut before 7/13.
MetsFan4Decades
3/4/2012-12:24pm at 12:24 pm (UTC -4)
Well, Havens is sidelined with some injury now too, right?
Can’t remember what right now but read about it a few days ago.
Mr North Jersey
3/4/2012-1:12pm at 1:12 pm (UTC -4)
Stiff back SRT.
http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120229&content_id=26913286&vkey=news_nym&c_id=nym
MetsFan4Decades
3/4/2012-1:30pm at 1:30 pm (UTC -4)
I knew I read something on Havens – didn’t think it sounded too serious but then again, not many of these Met injuries started out too serious……..
Hazmet
3/4/2012-11:20am at 11:20 am (UTC -4)
I believe this question was already answered last year by Lucas’s second half. What I’m looking forward to is how many balls he may be able to take the other way for home runs now with the fences lowered in LF. There’s a posibility that this actually will make him an even more dangerous hitter and greater power threat since he won’t have to focus as much on pulling the ball for the big fly, he can take it to all fields now for HR power at home.
I hate to say it but I’m actually going to start following Zach Lutz more given David’s health and potential trade status. I could easily see a combination of scenarios that either has Murph playing at third and Havens installed at second or a further clearing of talent for future assets by trading both David & Murph at some point and putting Havens at second and Lutz at third. I haven’t followed Lutz a lot but I always thought of him in the Duda mold but I’m not sure if that is accurate.
Ironic that Johan looks like the picture of health in comparison to his mates. Have to see if that shoe drops tomorrow. Rough start to ST.
Hazmet
3/4/2012-11:36am at 11:36 am (UTC -4)
PS – some Mets talk on WFAN this morning on ownership:
MLB and Mets ownership are just waiting to see what the Dodger deal closes at before the Mets situation gets addressed. The thought being that they’re just waiting for the Dodgers price to be set before moving onto the Mets which is considered a more valuable asset with the new digs and all. Dodgers deal is projecting at $2 billion, with a b, with McCord keeping the parking revenue going forward. The thought is that if the numbers are that large that the Wilpons would sell with MLB pressuring them to do so.
Ceetar
3/4/2012-3:14pm at 3:14 pm (UTC -4)
Did anyone that’s not just looking for headlines/ratings say any of that?
Hazmet
3/4/2012-6:38pm at 6:38 pm (UTC -4)
WFAN on Sunday morning before 10am doesn’t equate to ratings as an objective since that time is dead, but I get what you’re saying. Could have just as much been a stirring the pot for calls. As a premise it would make sense, then it might just be wishful thinking on my part.
Stickguy
3/4/2012-7:22pm at 7:22 pm (UTC -4)
I thought a huge part of the value of the Dodgers was the land around the stadium?
I don’t buy the whole waiting for the value to go up so they can cash out concept, but since none of us know exactly how bad the sterling/wilpon overall finances are (and what will be left when Picard is finally out of the picture), they may end up needing or wanting to cash out at that point.
Mr North Jersey
3/4/2012-1:23pm at 1:23 pm (UTC -4)
As ALex68 over at MMO started to say recently, “No pongas en Duda a Lucas Duda!”
MetsFan4Decades
3/4/2012-1:31pm at 1:31 pm (UTC -4)
O.K., someone has to translate…..lol.
Mr North Jersey
3/4/2012-1:35pm at 1:35 pm (UTC -4)
Translation: Don’t doubt on Lucas Duda.
Mr North Jersey
3/4/2012-1:37pm at 1:37 pm (UTC -4)
He has 2 banner day ideas already with “Somos Familia!” & “No pongas en Duda a Lucas Duda!”.
Somos Familia translation: We are family
gategem
3/5/2012-12:56am at 12:56 am (UTC -4)
Many years back I spent some time in PR and my gf tried, but to no avail, teach me Spanish. All I mastered was the phrase “besame el culo”
Mr North Jersey
3/4/2012-1:24pm at 1:24 pm (UTC -4)
BTW though its the Yanks vs the Phils I am glad to see games finally televised again.
Mr North Jersey
3/4/2012-2:21pm at 2:21 pm (UTC -4)
Video of Reyes HR today off Nolasco.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Z9m23zn-Lxw
MetsFan4Decades
3/4/2012-8:55pm at 8:55 pm (UTC -4)
Took me three months to convince myself we’re better off w/o Reyes and that contract.
You’re not helping…..
TRS86
3/4/2012-9:02pm at 9:02 pm (UTC -4)
Here’s a video of why we didn’t resign him to the contract that will be paying him 25M a year 5 years from now.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=16513851&topic_id=&c_id=mlb&tcid=vpp_copy_16513851&v=3
Feel better?
MetsFan4Decades
3/4/2012-9:47pm at 9:47 pm (UTC -4)
LOL….that’s what I keep telling myself. Big risk b/c of the apparent chronic hamstring injuries.
I’m not wishing an injury on Reyes. But I wouldn’t mind seeing dissension in the clubhouse b/c of the Hanley-moving-to-third-factor.
That and I hope Loria paid big bucks – more than he should have – b/c of what probably will be a career season for Reyes last year.
Then again, I don’t think Reyes will be serving out that 6 year contract in a Miami uniform.
TRS86
3/4/2012-9:04pm at 9:04 pm (UTC -4)
Hey 4D, over on the tab where the recent comments are I am experimenting with a new widget that will show the current story for all the blogs on our blogroll. Let me know what you think.
MetsFan4Decades
3/4/2012-9:43pm at 9:43 pm (UTC -4)
Very nice.
I especially like when you click on a current comment, it takes you right to that comment on whatever post – lightening fast.
Like the Around Mets Nation as well. Click anything on that and it takes me right to that blog in about 2 seconds as well.
Tried it in both I.E. and Firefox and works great.
TRS86
3/4/2012-9:49pm at 9:49 pm (UTC -4)
Thanks, trying to make things more one stop shopping before the season starts.
Hazmet
3/4/2012-9:58pm at 9:58 pm (UTC -4)
FYI – I told one of my co-workers to check out the site a couple of weeks ago and his words were “I’m digging it”. He thought the format was superior to other sites and the tone and knowledge base of the authors was far better here.
Obviously I agree
MetsFan4Decades
3/4/2012-10:50pm at 10:50 pm (UTC -4)
Love the Twitter feeds as well – especially since I don’t have a twitter account, therefore don’t follow anyone.
gategem
3/5/2012-12:15am at 12:15 am (UTC -4)
Its nice to see you giving MNJ some help in running this blog. Keep up the good work. We the little people certainly appreciate it.
trs86
3/5/2012-8:16am at 8:16 am (UTC -4)
Hey, LOL, I have always been behind the scenes screwing things up then fixing them.
Mr North Jersey
3/4/2012-9:48pm at 9:48 pm (UTC -4)
I won’t lie to you and say it won’t happen again cause let’s face it watching what players like Reyes, Beltran and to a lesser extent Pagan do will be something that will be interesting to follow for many but i’ll try to keep it to things like 1st time stuff like hr’s or something that is just a baseball story regardless of the player.
Is that OK?
MetsFan4Decades
3/4/2012-10:48pm at 10:48 pm (UTC -4)
LOL….it’s all good. Post whatever you want.
I’m sure most of us will have an eye on what Reyes does this year – and to a lesser extent guys like Beltran (who I hope has a great year), Pagan and even FMart.
Saw a tweet earlier (or was it yesterday?) that Pagan over ran a ball hit out to CF in the Giants game.
Mr North Jersey
3/4/2012-11:03pm at 11:03 pm (UTC -4)
Yea saw that as well. You know the Pagan/Torres comparisons will be an all season thing by most blogs. I’d be shocked if it wasn’t.
I am looking to see if he can play CF as I’ve seen advertised and can stay healthy. Our depth the way it is at this moment doesn’t bode well if a player or 2 go down for a significant stretch.
darknova306
3/5/2012-2:31am at 2:31 am (UTC -4)
I don’t care what any of those guys other than Beltran does. And that’s only cause he’s my favorite baseball player these days.
Really couldn’t care less about FMart. I know everyone on twitter was going crazy today because of some homeruns hit, and all the idiots were immediately calling for Sandy to be fired. Yawn.
Ceetar
3/5/2012-8:47am at 8:47 am (UTC -4)
as long as you’re not still updating us on Oliver Perez (scoreless inning for Seattle against the As), Francoeur, Carter, etc, constantly, particularly once the season starts. Big diff between guys like Reyes/Pagan/Martinez who were a direct result of roster management and who’s performance will be used to retroactively judge the decisions.
gategem
3/5/2012-12:26am at 12:26 am (UTC -4)
On Feb 27th blogger Eno Saris over at Amazin’ Avenue posted the New York Mets Hitters: Composite Projections.
http://www.amazinavenue.com/2012/2/27/2827235/new-york-mets-hitters-2012-projections
If you haven’t seen it it’s worth taking a look.
trs86
3/5/2012-8:29am at 8:29 am (UTC -4)
Interesting but the problem is that it assumes lack of games played due to last year’s games. So Ike, Wright and Duda all have significant games missed.