I’m continuing with my series of player predictions and statistical projections for the 2012 season. This week features the starting rotation.
The projections are based on a secret, scientific, proprietary mathematical formula that I will reveal at the end of the year. After coming up with my own projections, I went back and checked those of FanGraphs. In many cases, we were almost in lockstep. In others, there was a great disparity. At the end of the season, I’ll compare my projections with FanGraphs’, and we’ll see whose projections were closest to reality.
Also, in the interest of brevity, I will only include “glamour stats.” Besides, it’s hard to calculate everyone’s BABIP when you have a full-time job.
Without further ado…
R.A. Dickey, RHSP
The Mets’ very own Sherpa has been the team’s most consistent starting pitcher over the last two years. He comes into camp in terrific shape following his climb of Mt. Kilimanjaro in January.
Tim Wakefield announced his retirement prior to Spring Training, leaving R.A. as the last knuckleballer in the major leagues, and he represents his craft well. At age 36, he posted a 3.26 ERA in 208 innings for New York in 2011. That performance followed a season in which he put up a 2.84 ERA in 174 innings.
During this time, however, he has suffered a lack of run support – his overall W-L record with the Mets is 19-22. For some reason, these things tend to follow a pitcher around. As Ron Darling once said after a string of games he neither won nor lost, “My personality must portend no-decisions.”
Run support or not, expect another solid season from Dickey. With Johan Santana’s health in doubt and Mike Pelfrey’s unpredictability, the Mets are counting on Dickey to anchor their rotation.
Projection: 14-9, 3.22 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
FanGraphs: 11-10, 3.58 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Up next: Mike Pelfrey
69 comments
NJstuckinTX
3/12/2012-9:00am at 9:00 am (UTC -4)
With a projected 3.22 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, I would hope he would have something stronger than 14-9. Either way, looking forward to his in game performances and the post game interviews.
kingman 26
3/12/2012-9:29am at 9:29 am (UTC -4)
Well, those numbers are precisely what Dickey had last year to go along with an 8–13 record, so I think 14–9 is pretty optimistic; way too much so. For 14–9, he probably needs more like 2.72 and 1.01.
Love the Mets, but they were mediocre offensively last year and we have no Jose and no Beltran.
Where is the dramatically increased run support for RA coming from?
Ceetar
3/12/2012-9:28am at 9:28 am (UTC -4)
1.22 WHIP, 3.1 ERA, 215 IP, 16-6 record based on the run support falling right for him this year.
Remember Dickey when people trash the Mets pitching. He’d be 1 or 2 on most staffs.
kingman 26
3/12/2012-9:33am at 9:33 am (UTC -4)
Last year he went 8–13 with a 3.28 and a 1.23.
This year, without Reyes and Beltran, he’s going to go 16-6 with a 3.10 and a 1.22?
I guess this is fun for you…..
And no, Dickey would not be a 1 on almost any staff. He’d be a decent 2 on some, and a very solid 3 on many.
Where outside of a 4th place mediocre team would he be a number 1?
Ceetar
3/12/2012-9:47am at 9:47 am (UTC -4)
well, he’s been as valuable as Tim Lincecum over the last two years, so..
he’s also been in the top 30 or so for ERA the last two years also.
so you know, the facts.
Ceetar
3/12/2012-9:52am at 9:52 am (UTC -4)
15th! in ERA from 2010-2011 for starters with at least 200 IP.
I don’t have full access, so I don’t know where he falls in ERA+, but it’s looking like 25ish.
SaltyGary
3/12/2012-10:42am at 10:42 am (UTC -4)
CMON please don’t put Lincecum and Dickey on the same level with any stat. Dickey has been a nice pickup for the team, lets keep it at that.
Ceetar
3/12/2012-11:56am at 11:56 am (UTC -4)
I didn’t give them same ERA, their performance did.
kingman 26
3/12/2012-12:01pm at 12:01 pm (UTC -4)
You equate Lincecum and Dickey.
You should be over at MMO.
You would be a hero of the core over there.
Ceetar
3/12/2012-12:27pm at 12:27 pm (UTC -4)
Not equating Tim and R.A., merely pointing out that they had the same ERA and ERA+ the last two years. But let’s not let the cold hard facts get in the way of our Mets hate.
kingman 26
3/12/2012-1:08pm at 1:08 pm (UTC -4)
“he’s been as valuable as Tim Lincecum over the last two years”
Not equating them?
Do you even know the definitions of the words you use, and their meaning when grouped together in sentences?
Never let reality get in the way of your devoutly ridiculous internet presence.
Ceetar
3/12/2012-2:09pm at 2:09 pm (UTC -4)
Lincecum, 8 rWAR, Dickey, 8.3 rWAR. (the stat Wins Above Replacement being based on the concept of _value_ above replacement player.)
Stick
3/12/2012-2:25pm at 2:25 pm (UTC -4)
Oh, this is getting to be a good old fashioned, bare knuckles, “sabergoon vs. I saw baseball with my own eyes on the hardscrabble back alleys of bayonne and i played so I don’t need no sticking new fangled numbers” brawl here.
also plays into something I firmly believe (not that it is necessarily the case here), that once guys get a reputation, it takes a tsunami to change perceptions. So a guy that is a 4th OF never gets respect, an “ace” will always be better than a journeyman, etc. name recognition basically.
actually, I guess that is a big part of what Sabre is supposed to do. Annonimize results.
Ceetar
3/12/2012-2:54pm at 2:54 pm (UTC -4)
yeah. basically knuckleballers are all cheaters or something. Velocity gets you bonus points. You get bonus points for being drafted higher too, unless you’re merely average, then you’re docked points. (see: Mike Pelfrey)
gategem
3/12/2012-7:50pm at 7:50 pm (UTC -4)
Stick aren’t you the guy that over at MMO wrote:
“that’s what those saber people do. Play the game on spreadsheets, instead of watching with their own eyes and accounting for intangibles.”
Yet over here you write:
“sabergoon vs. I saw baseball with my own eyes on the hardscrabble back alleys of bayonne and i played so I don’t need no sticking new fangled numbers” brawl here.”
“actually, I guess that is a big part of what Sabre is supposed to do. Anonymize results.”
Tsk, tsk. Hmmmm…
Stickguy
3/12/2012-8:08pm at 8:08 pm (UTC -4)
I guess I was too subtle over there. That was a sarcastic dig at Alex, for basically making an argument based solely on stats. So I was calling HIM the saber head.
Here, I was just poking at the 2 of them, since it really was coming off as a saber vs. “my eyes” deal, so I bayonned Knog for it.
gategem
3/12/2012-9:55pm at 9:55 pm (UTC -4)
I never read Alex’s comments and I’m starting to have my doubts about Donal. BTW Tyler M. looks about thirteen years old.
You’re trying to be subtle over at MMO. That’s akin to trying to change the course of a Hurricane by passing gas.
kingman 26
3/12/2012-11:04am at 11:04 am (UTC -4)
Yes, and I am quite sure that many baseball GMs would choose RA Dickey over Tim Lincecum.
kingman 26
3/12/2012-11:05am at 11:05 am (UTC -4)
“so you know, the facts.”
Yes, I often do.
Your comment history is a parody of “the facts.”
Dickey 16-6, Duda 119 RBI, and the Mets win a 32nd straight WS crown!
Yeah!!
kingman 26
3/12/2012-9:42am at 9:42 am (UTC -4)
Paul, I have to say that I personally find almost all of these projections to be surprisingly reasonable and possible.
I think RA is not going to go 14–9 (I like your ERA and WHIP but Fangraphs’ record), but the ERA and WHIP seem right on the money; as do the projections from all of the entries in this recent series.
Nice work.
Paul Festa
3/12/2012-11:35am at 11:35 am (UTC -4)
Amazingly, I’ve been falling quite close to FanGraphs’ projections without looking at them first. I’m going with the more optimistic record predicting (and hoping?) that he finally gets some run support this year.
Stick
3/12/2012-11:46am at 11:46 am (UTC -4)
run support is weird. some years, a guy gets little even if the team overall scores a lot. And some guys just seem to get a bunch scored for them, even when the team is not an offensive powerhouse.
so maybe this is the year Dickey gets the benefit?
kingman 26
3/12/2012-12:00pm at 12:00 pm (UTC -4)
“so maybe this is the year Dickey gets the benefit?”
Very possible, if we trade him to Texas or the Yanks.
Stick
3/12/2012-10:27am at 10:27 am (UTC -4)
I hope you are right. I expect him to have a good year, and pitch the first met no-hitter.
NJstuckinTX
3/12/2012-11:23am at 11:23 am (UTC -4)
And down goes Byrdak…
MetsFan4Decades
3/12/2012-11:57am at 11:57 am (UTC -4)
Sigh….
This announcement just days after I read that the Mets wouldn’t be going with a second lefty in the pen, but more looking for a guy or two who can get out both sides of the plate.
kingman 26
3/12/2012-12:02pm at 12:02 pm (UTC -4)
Never fear, CJ Nitwitkowski is on the way!!
Yes, really….
Hazmet
3/12/2012-12:18pm at 12:18 pm (UTC -4)
Another use for the Underdog tee shirt, “There’s no need to fear CJ Nitwitkowski is here”
kingman 26
3/12/2012-2:59pm at 2:59 pm (UTC -4)
Switch “no” with “tremendous” and you have a winner!
Hazmet
3/12/2012-12:14pm at 12:14 pm (UTC -4)
Wonder if he hurt it doing his Hulk Hogan Leg Drop immitation in the clubhouse. Just sayin’ – would be typical for our team.
trs86
3/12/2012-11:33am at 11:33 am (UTC -4)
13-10 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.
Also Kingman, you mean the mediocre Mets offense that was 6th last year in runs scored, 2nd in hits, 1st in walks, 3rd in stolen bases, 2nd in OBP?
You are also referring to the Mets offense that actually scored more runs per game in the 2nd half with Beltran gone and Reyes missing a significant part of the time.
The offense is no where near the problem even minus Reyes and Beltran. The pitching and defense? UGH.
kingman 26
3/12/2012-11:58am at 11:58 am (UTC -4)
Yes, that offense.
What does being 2nd in hits, 1st in walks, 2nd in OBP and 6th in runs tell you TRS?
Perhaps that the problem was extra base hits?
Well, we have no Beltran and no Reyes–that’s a lot of missing extra base hits.
No way they match ANY of those numbers without those two, and Torres could make us all miss Pagan too.
Sorry buddy, but I think expecting a repeat of that offense is a BIG stretch.
No leadoff hitter and no threat in the middle of the lineup a la Beltran.
Big, big years from Ike, Duda, and Murph are the only hope of repeating those offensive numbers in my opinion.
But I agree the defense could be truly awful, and the bullpen WILL be truly awful. The starting pitching could be the one average or MAYBE slightly above average area if Johan is healthy.
trs86
3/12/2012-12:33pm at 12:33 pm (UTC -4)
Again, more runs per game in the 2nd half minus Beltran most of the time, minus Reyes much of the time, minus Davis all of the time, minus Murphy…
kingman 26
3/12/2012-1:13pm at 1:13 pm (UTC -4)
22–34 in their last 56 games.
Don’t have the time to really delve into it, but I imagine a close examination might reveal that in the second half–once they were clearly out of it after Beltran and KRod were gone–that there might have been a lot of 6-5 and 8-7 type losses, a lot of late-inning runs which were not too meaningful, and also–as the team definitely DID win against losers and lose against winners the last 2 months–probably a lot of 5+ run games against the Nats and the Marlins and a lot of 4- run games against good teams.
TRS86
3/12/2012-2:05pm at 2:05 pm (UTC -4)
Are we saying those runs should not count? Should we go back and adjust the entire league for deflation?
kingman 26
3/12/2012-2:53pm at 2:53 pm (UTC -4)
LOL! Of course not. But the team is not the offensive juggernaut Ceetar suggests, nor was it as good as being 1st and 2nd in a few numbers suggested—I simply believe that being 6th in runs MIGHT be a BIT misleading, and I also believe that we will see how valuable Reyes and Beltran were very soon.
OK, maybe they scored a few more runs later in the year, but they also lost 60% of their games the last third of the season.
I would argue that while pitching was of course awful, offense was simply good. Not bad, not great, maybe a tiny tad above average, if that, and we have no Reyes and no Beltran, and reasonable people could suggest that Bay and Wright will be pretty much what they have evolved into the last two years.
So, to sum up, without massive years from Ike, Duda, AND Murph, I think the offense will be hard-pressed to match the 2010 numbers.
Ceetar
3/12/2012-2:14pm at 2:14 pm (UTC -4)
Niese went down, Gee and Capuano had bad second halves. The record was a result of pitching, not hitting.
In fact, there biggest blow out in the second was a drubbing of the Braves. And they had a couple of ones on the other side to the Phillies.
kingman 26
3/12/2012-2:40pm at 2:40 pm (UTC -4)
“There” biggest blowout?
Nice work professor.
Ceetar
3/12/2012-2:52pm at 2:52 pm (UTC -4)
when you don’t have a leg to stand on, criticize the oppositions typos.
kingman 26
3/12/2012-2:56pm at 2:56 pm (UTC -4)
No, it is just like always—you are too ridiculous to engage in debate; I apologize once again for trying!
And it wasn’t a typo—you don’t know the difference between there and their anymore than you know the difference between a great pitcher in Lincecum and a good to very good one in Dickey.
And PS—when you can’t write or spell, it usually means you aren’t too hip to facts either.
TRS86
3/12/2012-3:01pm at 3:01 pm (UTC -4)
Uncalled for Kingman. Let I find Ceetar to be intelligent yet overly optimistic. Is that really a crime?
Ceetar
3/12/2012-3:05pm at 3:05 pm (UTC -4)
that PS is blatantly wrong, but the statistics aren’t as readily available to disprove as they are with just about every baseball argument you try to make.
my grammatical instincts are not good. they’ve never been good. they didn’t teach grammar in school. I usually catch 99% of them when I proofread my own work, but I rarely proofread my random off the top of my head comments made in the informal comments sections of blogs.
Regardless, the wrong word got the message across. You understood the sentence, which is the #1 purpose of language.
You’re also wrong. The run distribution was pretty good the second half. They didn’t pile up ‘soft runs’ against bad teams or anything. They were just good at hitting.
kingman 26
3/12/2012-4:31pm at 4:31 pm (UTC -4)
Eh, this is an ancient and ridiculous debate.
I am at fault for engaging in it again.
Ceetar
3/12/2012-4:41pm at 4:41 pm (UTC -4)
You’re at fault for being stubborn and sticking to your/you’re/ur/yore faulty opinions over facts presented to you.
kingman 26
3/12/2012-4:44pm at 4:44 pm (UTC -4)
Yes, Ceetar–regale us again with your fact-supported arguments on Mariano Rivera being overrated…
And how about your all-time greatest hit (of MANY):
“Oliver Perez was treated unfairly”—he “Just wants to pitch.”
kingman 26
3/12/2012-4:45pm at 4:45 pm (UTC -4)
gategem
3/12/2012-2:31pm at 2:31 pm (UTC -4)
I always find the distribution of runs to be more revealing than the aggregate. Plus you have a myriad of variables in truly determining the effectiveness of the runs scored. When do they occur, what type of pitching they were facing, did they face mostly call-ups late in the season, etc. You hit upon some of them in your comment. An interesting example occurred in the 1962 WS. The composite box score showed:
1960 World Series (4–3): Pittsburgh Pirates (N.L.) over New York Yankees (A.L.)
Pittsburg Pirates 27R, 60H , 4Err
New York Yankees 55R, 91H, 8Err
It’s hard to believe the Pirates won the damned thing.
kingman 26
3/12/2012-2:49pm at 2:49 pm (UTC -4)
Bingo.
Precisely what I was suggesting; again, without really researching it.
There are a lot of reasons the team collapsed once Beltran and KRod were traded and Jose got hurt again.
kingman 26
3/12/2012-4:41pm at 4:41 pm (UTC -4)
This is from baseballreference.com:
First Half 46 45 399 388 .505
Second Half 31 40 319 354 .437
So they scored about 4.5 runs per game after the break and 4.4 per game before.
Yes, a massive difference.
Ceetar
3/12/2012-4:56pm at 4:56 pm (UTC -4)
So you even look up the numbers yourself and still are trying to argue that they can’t score runs without Reyes and Beltran?
kingman 26
3/12/2012-6:19pm at 6:19 pm (UTC -4)
Yes, that was my argument, sage of irrelevance.
Tell us again about Mariano being overrated and Ollie being treated unfairly.
trs86
3/12/2012-8:04pm at 8:04 pm (UTC -4)
I never said it was substantial but the fact that it happen without Beltran and missing Reyes who came back in protection mode and missing Davis and missing Murphy it is possible that the offense can replicate last year’s offense.
MetsFan4Decades
3/12/2012-11:56am at 11:56 am (UTC -4)
Love RA.
If I remember correctly, he got off to a very slow start beginning of last season. Some attributed it to playing in colder weather in some stadiums, some believe it was the effect of that split fingernail early on.
And if my memory is not all together faulty, once he started pitching solidly, the run support for him was awful – almost reminiscent of the low run support Johan got for a long while.
This is why is so hard to predict W/Ls for most pitchers.
He’s a smart guy so unless he starts having arm trouble, I expect a solid season from him.
Hazmet
3/12/2012-12:26pm at 12:26 pm (UTC -4)
Unrelated: Mets fans where I work:
Comment 1: Made to limping older guy getting ready for surgery, “what are you walking like that for you look like Jason Bay”
Comment 2: “Are you ready for another 100 loss season this year”
kingman 26
3/12/2012-1:17pm at 1:17 pm (UTC -4)
Where do you work, the comments section of MMO?
They lost 103 in 1993, and that’s the only time they’ve lost 100 since 1967!!
gategem
3/12/2012-2:49pm at 2:49 pm (UTC -4)
The comments section over at MMO reminds me of the parliament fights in some countries.
kingman 26
3/12/2012-2:58pm at 2:58 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, if Parliament was made up of slow 12-year-olds!
darknova306
3/12/2012-1:29pm at 1:29 pm (UTC -4)
The ERA and WHIP projections look fine to me. Predicting wins and losses for a pitcher seems like an exercise in futility to me, though. So many factors go into pitchers’ records, just look at Matt Cain’s career so far. I could see his record being worse than last year with how horrendous this defense will be in 2012, but I’m not willing to throw out a number.
Paul Festa
3/12/2012-4:09pm at 4:09 pm (UTC -4)
True, Wins and Losses depend on so many variables that projecting them is an inexact science.
gategem
3/12/2012-2:42pm at 2:42 pm (UTC -4)
My PIOOYA formulae has some problems with Dickey because of the number of variables that affect a knuckleballer versus a pitcher with traditional talent. The environment, catcher, type of hitter, etc. all seem to have a greater impact on the knuckleballer versus someone that throws 95 mph with an excellent changeup.
10-10, 3.70 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
NJstuckinTX
3/12/2012-3:47pm at 3:47 pm (UTC -4)
And Duda goes BOOM!
Ceetar
3/12/2012-4:00pm at 4:00 pm (UTC -4)
you’ll wanna save that one on your clipboard, because you’ll be typing it a lot.
Stick
3/12/2012-4:38pm at 4:38 pm (UTC -4)
I’m so proud, I popped 2 buttons off my vest. Either that or I need to stop eating so much.
but man, he is going to have a huge year.
and some of you scoffed 2 years ago when I started the bandwagon. Oh yea of little faith.
MetsFan4Decades
3/12/2012-7:30pm at 7:30 pm (UTC -4)
LOL….well, I don’t remember scoffing but I do remember thinking ‘Lucas who???’
Late bloomer?
Under valued on the prospect list?
Correctly valued given the fact that he – like some other Mets prospects along the way – didn’t really have a position b/c his defense left something to be desired?
Duda can be considered a 2 tool type player, right?
Good arm and has some power and pop to his bat. But slow and hasn’t really shown much in the way of defense.
I’ll be very happy if Mr. Duda’s bat more than makes up for any defensive short comings he might have this year playing RF.
Still wish he was playing LF though….
SaltyGary
3/12/2012-7:49pm at 7:49 pm (UTC -4)
Pridie just got busted:
Jason Pridie has been suspended 50 games for a second violation of a drug of abuse under baseball’s minor league testing program.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7676996/jason-pridie-oakland-athletics-suspended-50-games-drug-abuse
wanny
3/12/2012-10:46pm at 10:46 pm (UTC -4)
i’d turn to drugs too if sandy had told me i wasnt good enough to crack into the top 5 of the Mets outfield. talk about a depressing bit of information.
Stickguy
3/12/2012-11:10pm at 11:10 pm (UTC -4)
I honestly can’t remember how his situation played out. I thought he was a FA that could have stayed here on a MiL deal, but just elected to take one elsewhere? or did he actually get a ML deal?
But man, talk about a dopeass. Doing whatever rec drugs he did, knowing that he was getting drug tested? When you are still hanging onto about the best job in the world, and probably the only one he will ever have that pays that kind of money?
Hope that joint was some really good stuff Jason!
Paul Festa
3/12/2012-11:17pm at 11:17 pm (UTC -4)
Whatever Pridie took, it wasn’t enough.
wanny
3/12/2012-11:50pm at 11:50 pm (UTC -4)
not surprisingly, it doesnt appear to have been a performance enhancing drug. it was a drug of abuse — perhaps alcohol, nicotine, aspirin or caffeine. wait, those widely abused drugs are permitted.