I’m continuing with my series of player predictions and statistical projections for the 2012 season. This week features the starting rotation.
The projections are based on a secret, scientific, proprietary mathematical formula that I will reveal at the end of the year. After coming up with my own projections, I went back and checked those of FanGraphs. In many cases, we were almost in lockstep. In others, there was a great disparity. At the end of the season, I’ll compare my projections with FanGraphs’, and we’ll see whose projections were closest to reality.
Also, in the interest of brevity, I will only include “glamour stats.” Besides, it’s hard to calculate everyone’s BABIP when you have a full-time job.
Without further ado…
R.A. Dickey, RHSP
The Mets’ very own Sherpa has been the team’s most consistent starting pitcher over the last two years. He comes into camp in terrific shape following his climb of Mt. Kilimanjaro in January.
Tim Wakefield announced his retirement prior to Spring Training, leaving R.A. as the last knuckleballer in the major leagues, and he represents his craft well. At age 36, he posted a 3.26 ERA in 208 innings for New York in 2011. That performance followed a season in which he put up a 2.84 ERA in 174 innings.
During this time, however, he has suffered a lack of run support – his overall W-L record with the Mets is 19-22. For some reason, these things tend to follow a pitcher around. As Ron Darling once said after a string of games he neither won nor lost, “My personality must portend no-decisions.”
Projection: 14-9, 3.22 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
FanGraphs: 11-10, 3.58 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Up next: Mike Pelfrey