Doc: The time-traveling is just too dangerous. Better that I devote myself to study the other great mystery of the universe: women!
Today ESPN’s Keith Law made a blog post that highlighted those lower ranked teams and their future outlook. Based on future payroll commitments, major league assets, farm systems, ownership status and front office strategies, Keith attempts to predict when each team can officially contend once again.
So according to Keith, our New York Mets fit that criteria of being a bottom feeder and he doesn’t feel they can contend until 2016:
The good news for Mets fans is that the $43 million rathole known as Santana Bay will close after 2013 with a couple of option buyouts, after which, assuming that David Wright has sailed for non-bankrupt shores, they’ll have no significant long-term commitments.
The bad news, aside from the running farce in the ownership suite is that the new front-office regime’s turnaround hasn’t had enough time to do more than make sure the ship is facing the right direction. There are a few potential stars in the system in right-handers Zack Wheeler and Matt Harvey, both of whom could debut this year if the rotation has room for them, and outfielder Brandon Nimmo, who’s probably a good four years off even if the knee trouble is completely behind him, but those three aren’t enough to be the core of a championship club. And, unfortunately, they don’t have great assets on the major league roster to trade for prospects.
New ownership would help, but otherwise the Mets will have to build through the draft and international markets, which will take several years unless they get an infusion of cash.
As the TRDMB resident pessimist, I felt this was a little too much doom and gloom but maybe my orange colored glasses are blurring my sense of reason. So taking Keith’s categories, I’ve attempted to create my own prediction. After all, as a fan I know a lot more than he does.
Future payroll commitments: This is the Mets greatest strength. In 2014 the only potential salary on the books is the options formally known as the “Rathole”. The front office will find a way out and the team will have unbelievable financial flexibility.
Major league assets: ” Wright, ummmm… OK glaring weakness. Duda may be added to the list, but let’s give him another season.
Farm systems: Starting to improve. Last year depleted the upper levels, and some help will be on the way and contributing in 2 years. Just because Harvey can come up late this season, doesn’t mean the Mets will have a reliable starter until he compiles more game time.
Ownership status: Time is starting to heal those Madoff wounds and the Wilpon’s grasp on the team is getting stronger once again. They have been able to restructure a lot of debt, and they will continue to do so. Regardless of your opinion of them, they have spent money before and they will again.
Front office strategies: Saber Sandy and his crew have not had much to work with so far, so my opinion is still “Too Early to Call”. There have been some decent moves, some questionable moves, and some poor moves, but I keep coming back to the fact he is trying to do his job while wearing handcuffs.
With that said 2015 is my prediction. By next season the team should have a good gauge on how Harvey, Wheeler and Familia will fit in. We will also know if Mejia, Duda and a few others can be part of that long term outlook. Using that information they will have the payroll flexibility and can bring in the proper complementary pieces. These pieces cannot be acquired in one or two free agent years, so repeat after me “Slow and steady will win the race”. If you can’t take solace in that, then hit me up for some beer recommendations, because I’m going to hit every bottle I can get my hands on this season.
Keith Law’s post “Timeline’s for Contention” can be accessed here for “ESPN Insiders”:
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/law_keith/id/7680304/when-new-york-mets-chicago-cubs-houston-astros-realistically-contend-again
36 comments
Mr North Jersey
3/13/2012-12:53pm at 12:53 pm (UTC -4)
Look up in the sky! It’s a bird! It’s a plane! It’s It’s Saltygary!!!!
TRS86
3/13/2012-12:57pm at 12:57 pm (UTC -4)
Nice maiden voyage there Salty.
What a terrible article from Law that IMO reeks of just pilling on.
Payroll commitment: Yes Sandy has said all along that his goal is total flexibility not only in terms of cash and contracts but players as well.
No assets? So Davis, Murphy, Tejada, Wright, Duda, Niese, Dickey, have no value?
Farm system?: Man just three guys made us move from the bottom to the middle in almost every assessment. Those 3 must be studs.
Also the only farce is him being viewed as a creditable writer.
saltygary
3/13/2012-1:07pm at 1:07 pm (UTC -4)
Wasn’t planning on posting so quick but I read the article and couldn’t help myself. If you are able to read the entire piece, his snark is extra high for the Mets evaluations compared to the others.
I was a little loose on the assets and probably should of added Murphy and Dickey but the rest still have a lot to prove. MAybe I was being a little too “Snarky”!
Over all I do like KLAW. Compared to other ESPN writers I like his bluntness and he is not afraid to tick anybody off. It’s a breath of fresh air in the land of PR.
NJstuckinTX
3/13/2012-1:11pm at 1:11 pm (UTC -4)
Tradeable assets would have to be Wright. maybe Murphy, and pretty much anyone in the BP
Non-tradeable assets would be Niese, Ike, Duda. Non-tradeable because you don’t trade young cheap talent, unless you are Oakland.
And agreed, they slam the minor league system of the Mets, yet it’s pushed through Niese, Gee, Ike, Murphy, Duda and if you want to go all crazy, Thole and Parnell to be major leaguers. I’d say it’s an undervalued system that is starting to show more jewels than not with Nimmo, Harvey, Wheeler and the like getting some national love.
saltygary
3/13/2012-1:21pm at 1:21 pm (UTC -4)
But would Gee or Thole even be around if the team was better?
NJstuckinTX
3/13/2012-1:25pm at 1:25 pm (UTC -4)
Well, that’s were I was saying about going all sorts of crazy. No, they probably wouldn’t.
NJstuckinTX
3/13/2012-1:06pm at 1:06 pm (UTC -4)
I can’t wait to see one of these after a couple Mad Elf’s…
Good work.
NJstuckinTX
3/13/2012-1:21pm at 1:21 pm (UTC -4)
And I would say it wouldn’t be out of the question to see it closer to 2014. But, this goes all into the whole Madoff/Payroll flexibility/etc. etc.
kingman 26
3/13/2012-1:08pm at 1:08 pm (UTC -4)
NICE!
Welcome aboard Salty!
Nice analysis.
MetsFan4Decades
3/13/2012-1:09pm at 1:09 pm (UTC -4)
Mr. SaltyGary is now an author!
Rathole? Nice Law. Wonder if that would be his description if he had signed with the Yankees or Red Sox instead.
So hard to predict these kinds of things so far out.
I don’t expect them to compete this year. Probably next year as well.
Beyond that, who knows what this team will look like compared to the rest in the NL east?
You don’t see Ike as an asset?
Your analysis makes sense. 2014 seems doable.
I’d like to see it closer to 2013. To me, all depends on those pitching arms coming up, ownership and how much money will be in the coffers.
Nice post.
saltygary
3/13/2012-1:20pm at 1:20 pm (UTC -4)
I feel the news is still out on Ike, we need to see him play longer. Don’t get me wrong I like him a lot, especially when he makes those catches and flips over the bullpen rails, but last year was a real setback.
MetsFan4Decades
3/13/2012-3:08pm at 3:08 pm (UTC -4)
O.K., fair enough.
I’ve got him penciled in as an asset. Maybe some of which is due to the fact that there’s not much else to be rooting for right now on this team.
TRS86
3/13/2012-3:41pm at 3:41 pm (UTC -4)
Now doubt he is an asset as if he is healthy he would bring back more in a trade than any other regular MLB Met.
saltygary
3/13/2012-3:48pm at 3:48 pm (UTC -4)
Probably. He just needs to put in a good 3 month stretch and show that he has grown. Being out for a season after a rookie, is going to be tough. If he is hot out of the gate, he will be the teams best asset.
TRS86
3/13/2012-4:08pm at 4:08 pm (UTC -4)
Kid’s a big boy, how much taller do you want him to get?
Stick
3/13/2012-1:33pm at 1:33 pm (UTC -4)
certainly no opinion bias or slant in that piece by Law.
anyway, IMO, that far in the future is way too much of a crap shoot. heck, getting the current year right is no sure thing, the next season is stretching it, and beyond that (2014 in this case) is a complete mystery.
way too many vaiables for not only the Mets, but the teams they are competing with. Especially the Phils . Man, i hate the Phils.
so no, not expecting them to be a playoff contender this year, and not overly likely next year, but I certainly am not going to assume that they can’t be by 2014. If nothing else, the madoff saga should be finished this year, which has to help with the team getting back on it’s feet (and concentrating on building the future, not just trying to survive the present)
MetsFan4Decades
3/13/2012-3:59pm at 3:59 pm (UTC -4)
Cedeno with knee tendonitis?
Will it never end?
First one I expected to be reporting in with a problem was Johan. It’s starting to look like he might be one of the last standing.
TRS86
3/13/2012-4:07pm at 4:07 pm (UTC -4)
Oh well at least we don’t have to see him for now. No wonder Collins exploded.
saltygary
3/13/2012-4:11pm at 4:11 pm (UTC -4)
Same thing happened on ’09, think about it. The one guy with injury concerns, Castillo, was the only guy that remained on the field all season.
Ladies and gentleman, your 2009 NYM MVP Luiiiiiissssss Castiiiiiilllllllllooooo
MetsFan4Decades
3/13/2012-4:23pm at 4:23 pm (UTC -4)
LOL
I think Castillo missed only a couple of days tripping down the dugout steps.
Wasn’t Murph the only one still standing that year?
saltygary
3/13/2012-4:52pm at 4:52 pm (UTC -4)
Good job, Murph led the team with 155 games played.
Paul Festa
3/13/2012-6:46pm at 6:46 pm (UTC -4)
Well done!
Prismo
3/13/2012-7:34pm at 7:34 pm (UTC -4)
Law hates the Mets, as evidenced by the fact that he cursed me out on Twitter via direct message about a year ago (obviously that proves it!).
I’m a huge pessimist – thinking low-mid 70s wins this season, but 2016? It’s very possible, but seems completely arbitrary. I think the biggest obstacle to overcome is the ownership. If the Wilpons are out of town by 2016 (and I’d favor the odds on that one) I think the Mets can certainly contend before then.
MetsFan4Decades
3/13/2012-7:38pm at 7:38 pm (UTC -4)
Law did what? LOL……I take it you bruised his ego somewhat.
Some of these guys need to grow a thicker skin.
Saltygary
3/13/2012-8:42pm at 8:42 pm (UTC -4)
Please enlighten us!
wanny
3/13/2012-8:32pm at 8:32 pm (UTC -4)
If you read Law regularly you would be pretty sure that he does not have any anti-Mets bias. He calls it as he sees it and fans of just about every team accuse him of being anti-their team.
One thing about Law that separates him from most of the pundits is that he actually sees these young players play and has experience in a front office capacity as a talent evaluator. So, for example, if he views Familia as a reliever it’s at least based on something he sees (and he’s not alone in that opinion).
In any event, 2 blue chip prospects ranked in the 20s and 30s in MLB do not make a top farm system and do not assure the Mets of a bright future. Neither guy, Wheeler or Harvey, are viewed as can’t miss guys. what if Harvey becomes Pelfrey and Wheeler becomes a #2 and Familia and Mejia are relievers? does that sound like the foundation of a contender?
And I agree that the Mets lack tradeable assets on the MLB roster in that other than Wright the Mets are not getting top tier prospects in exchange for any of their guys. And even Wright’s value is depleted right now because of injury, performance and his contract status.
Murphy is not yielding a great return. He has no position, doesnt have the power profile of a DH and is hurt all the time.
Dickey is old already and no one trades for an unpredictable knuckle baller.
Davis (whom I don’t see a justification to trade unless Duda looks like the 1B of the future) has limited value because of injury and the fact that he hasnt had the chance to show his breakout potential.
Duda can’t play the OF and hasn’t proven anything yet. In fact, scouts don’t love his long swing.
Can you foresee anyone dealing a top prospect for any of these guys?
I do, however, think contention is potentially closer than 2016 mainly because i actually have faith that the Wilpons will spend again once Madoff is behind them and I also believe Alderson will spend more wisely.
MetsFan4Decades
3/13/2012-9:59pm at 9:59 pm (UTC -4)
Hey Wanny…
Considering that the farm system was ranked somewhere in the middle – and most of that due to pitching prospects – I don’t think many of us are looking through rose colored glasses for the next few years.
Listening to Ralph today, he was once again praising Duda’s swing, much like he did last year when he got the chance to see him bat. Said he was a natural, he’s already made some adjustments and should go far.
It’s Ike’s swing he doesn’t really care for. In fact last year, he just fell short of calling him a stubborn young player who wouldn’t make those same adjustments he deemed necessary. Just don’t remember all the details on those discussions but he’s stated that a few times now.
wanny
3/13/2012-10:59pm at 10:59 pm (UTC -4)
ike admits to being a “swing hard in case you hit it” kind of guy. he said as much in an article i read earlier this Spring in which he was praising Dan Murphy’s approach at the plate.
i think the evil adam rubin alluded to some conversations with mets people in which his impression was that this front office may prefer duda to davis at 1b for the future with ike as potential trade bait down the road. they like duda’s plate discipline but don’t think he can play the of.
stick
3/13/2012-11:32pm at 11:32 pm (UTC -4)
I agree that Ike has a long swing (moving parts, maybe a hole in it). But Duda? Seems to have a nice short controlled stroke. But then again, I am not unbiased!
I also happen to think (for real) that he will be serviceable in the OF, but he really should be over in LF given his lack of foot speed.
trs86
3/14/2012-8:16am at 8:16 am (UTC -4)
I think part of the issue is Ike has to prove he can handle LH pitching. I really think best case for the team is that either he or Duda ends up in LF with Bay on the road out. I just wish for the long-term good of the team that Bay would do well enough for the Mets to get him traded.
MetsFan4Decades
3/14/2012-8:19am at 8:19 am (UTC -4)
‘…Bay would do well enough for the Mets to get him traded.’
Best scenario but I’m not holding out any hope. I know it’s early yet but he doesn’t look any different to me at the plate so far this spring.
Still not hitting any balls in the air and certainly not with any kind of power. Has only 2 hits – one that was hit on the ground and just got by the IF for a double down the line yesterday.
MetsFan4Decades
3/14/2012-8:17am at 8:17 am (UTC -4)
Ike as trade bate…..you could be right but of the two, Ike is the better defensive first baseman.
I guess this is a problem you have though when you got about 42 first basemen in your organization and not much else…..
trs86
3/14/2012-8:22am at 8:22 am (UTC -4)
Is 4D really Tagee? LOL.
Yeah it is certainly a problem. I was actually holding out hope that Sandy would pull a miracle and turn one of those 1B into a pitcher from the Rays… until they brought back Pena.
MetsFan4Decades
3/14/2012-8:31am at 8:31 am (UTC -4)
Ha! Hardly.
Just seems like we’ve got plenty of guys who can play first and not many who are true OFs, although a couple of the prospects looked good out there.
Wish Den Dekker projected to be a bit better with the bat. From what I’ve seen so far, he’s got not problem catching up to most of those balls out there in CF.
NJstuckinTX
3/14/2012-9:16am at 9:16 am (UTC -4)
Is Ike a better OF, I wonder? Is the overall D better is it was Ike in the OF and Duda at 1B? Hmmmm….
MetsFan4Decades
3/14/2012-9:19am at 9:19 am (UTC -4)
Problem is, I don’t know who is slower: Ike or Duda.
Then there’s that what could be considered a chronic ankle problem with Ike that could flare up. Don’t know if trying to cover the OF would be more detrimental to an ankle they said would never be the same.