My player projections continue with…
Mike Pelfrey, RHSP
Mike Pelfrey is an enigma wrapped in a riddle. He has a live fastball and a darting sinker, but he’s had trouble with his command since he debuted in the major leagues. He’s also shown a lack of confidence in his secondary pitches: His slider, curve, and changeup.
In 2006, the former first-rounder was hurried through the Mets minor league system. He started a combined 18 games at A, AA, and AAA, and got a cup of coffee at the major league level – all during his first professional season. He put up an impressive 1.18 WHIP and 10.2 SO/9 ratio in the minors, but struggled in his 4 major league starts. Since that year, his numbers – in the minors or majors – have never been as good.
His best year came in 2010, when he discovered a split-change, and started the season 10-2. In July, he suddenly dropped off the cliff, going 0-3 with a 10.02 ERA. He recovered in August, posting a 1.82 ERA. Even in his best season, Pelfrey was a roller coaster ride.
He had a down year in 2011, a year in which the Mets counted on him to be their ace in lieu of the injured Johan Santana. His ERA ballooned from 3.66 to 4.74. His fastball appeared to lose some life, and he all but abandoned the split-change he had developed the year before. Most alarmingly, his GB to FB ratio dropped to a career low 0.86 percent.
One thing he continued to do well was eat up innings. Pelf has averaged 195 IP per year during his 4 full seasons in the majors.
However, his overall performance last year doesn’t seem to bode well for 2012, except for one, completely non-scientific fact. Pelfrey pitches well every other year. He’s one of those every-other-year guys. But that pattern will come to an end this year. He’s lost too much off his fastball – four and two seam. His secondary stuff, and most importantly, his command, aren’t good enough to make up for it.
Projection: 8-14, 4.61 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
FanGraphs: 11-11, 4.30 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
Up next: Jon Niese
153 comments
darknova306
3/13/2012-7:17am at 7:17 am (UTC -4)
Some reallly interesting stats from Pelf’s last four seasons (his full seasons in the majors, 2008-2011):
ER: 83, 103, 83, 102
H/9: 9.4, 10.4, 9.4, 10.2
HR/9: 0.5, 0.9, 0.5, 1.0
I just thought the pattern in those specific stats was kinda odd the way every other year was almost precisely the same.
Anyway, Pelf sucks but he throws lots of innings. Huzzah. Until this team doesn’t need him to be more than a mediocre 4th starter, they’re in trouble.
NJstuckinTX
3/13/2012-8:50am at 8:50 am (UTC -4)
Ahh, the old innings eater mentality… What good is 200 innings if they aren’t good ones?
trs86
3/13/2012-8:56am at 8:56 am (UTC -4)
It’s still 200 innings. You have to look at it as a 1458+ innings season. Someone has to pitch those innings. If it is not Pelfrey pitching those 200 innings then who is? If you forget Pelfrey’s name and just picture him as your worst starter then you could do a lot worse than a 4.40 ERA .500 pitcher. The challenge for the Mets is to make sure the other 4 guys are better than Pelfrey. That may sound easy but look around the league find a team with 5 pitchers better than Pelfrey in the starting lineup and you will most likely find a playoff team.
trs86
3/13/2012-9:00am at 9:00 am (UTC -4)
Just for more information.
Pelfrey since his first full season is 45-45 with a 4.27 ERA. That looks pretty league average to me.
NJstuckinTX
3/13/2012-9:05am at 9:05 am (UTC -4)
A 5 mil+ pitcher on the team throwing 200 innings of 4.40+ era and at our best hopes is a .500 pitcher is, well, sucky. Basically going 6 innings and giving up 3 runs, every time.
And having the other 4 pitchers be better than Pelf isn’t going to be that hard when Pelf sets the bar that low.
I’d honestly prefer Harvey learned on the job than roll with Pelf. And I do think it’s best for Harvey to spend half a season in the minors still.
trs86
3/13/2012-9:31am at 9:31 am (UTC -4)
Again you are approaching it from just a tired of Pelfrey view.
Take a look at this:
NL East #5′s:
Phillies: Blanton 5.01 ERA
Braves: Minor 4.14 ERA
Marlins: Zamby 4.82 ERA
Nats: Wang 4.04 ERA
Central #5′s:
Cards: Westbrook 4.66 ERA
Reds: Arroyo 5.27 ERA/Bailey 4.43 ERA
Brewers: Narveson 4.45 ERA
Cubs: Wells 4.99 ERA
Houston: You or I could grab the #5 spot.
NL West #5′s:
Giants Zito: 5.87 ERA
Dbacks: JOSH COLLMENTER 3.59 ERA as a rookie, we shall see if that holds
Rockies are just throwing 12 back end starters out and trying to figure out who fits where.
Dodgers: Capuano 4.55 ERA
Padres: Like Houston, you or I could be the #5 starter and have an ERA under 4.00. Just look at what it did for Harrang.
Ceetar
3/13/2012-9:38am at 9:38 am (UTC -4)
The Phillies depth behind that isn’t any better than the Mets either. In fact, it may be worse.
NJstuckinTX
3/13/2012-9:41am at 9:41 am (UTC -4)
Is this supposed to make me feel better?
kingman 26
3/13/2012-9:49am at 9:49 am (UTC -4)
No. As much as it sucks, Pelf’s not at all guaranteed to really be a 5. Gee starts out as 5 based on his total implosion in the second half and lack of commanding stuff. Niese has yet to finish a season, and who knows how long Johan lasts…
So Pelf’s not really guaranteed to be a 5 all year. On this team, he’s really 3 or 4.
And the innings really do matter this year, as we have absolutely less than zero MLB-ready depth. Schwinden’s awful, and hopefully Sandy is way too smart to rush Harvey or anyone else.
So, while it is reason 49827B to be pessimistic, let’s hope Pelf can at least rebound to maybe 3.80 and 1.30 and be a .500 pitcher.
NJstuckinTX
3/13/2012-9:52am at 9:52 am (UTC -4)
And no, it’s not a “tired of Pelf” thing. I think it is an unbiased look at what Pelf really is. There is too much homer-ism on Pelf that cuts him slack. If there had been any viable option as a replacement to Pelf, I bet he would have been non-tendered.
At the end of the day, there isn’t any SP depth, so we are stuck with what the mets have. But to sit here and hope some oddity of nature occurs where Pelf will lean on the powers of the “every other year” principle is not a plan of action any sane person can be content with, at least with the current SP roster and depth following that. If Pelf blows, well, we’re stuck with him.
kingman 26
3/13/2012-9:58am at 9:58 am (UTC -4)
I agree. But this team is thinner than Gandhi at the end of a long fast, and has less than zero money.
So while all those millions for Pelf may sound crazy, the idea of Schwinden throwing 200 innings is really scary.
Who’s next–Chris Young? He’d be great for a few weeks, then who?
Really, in many ways, Pelf being counted on this much and being paid this much is perhaps THE true symbol of the state of this team right now.
Ceetar
3/13/2012-10:06am at 10:06 am (UTC -4)
Batista, Hefner, Olson, Schwinden, Cohoon and Carson maybe. Perhaps Harvey and Familiia if they hold off until July+.
We can’t all have Kyle Kendrick.
trs86
3/13/2012-10:12am at 10:12 am (UTC -4)
Other than our resident Optimist, who is providing homerism on Pelfrey? Most of us say he either stinks or is mediocre at best. However, Ceetar’s point on he hasn’t really changed is very true. His ERA spikes based on the hit ball because he puts so many in play. That is why they are focusing so much on the sinker. My fear is our defense will be so bad it will be difficult for him to be successful.
Ceetar
3/13/2012-10:31am at 10:31 am (UTC -4)
I’m not sure my 4.4 ERA is pushing the bounds of Pelfrey optimism.
kingman 26
3/13/2012-10:42am at 10:42 am (UTC -4)
Maybe not, but a 15-8 record sure is.
kingman 26
3/13/2012-9:53am at 9:53 am (UTC -4)
Pelf’s not really a 5 though.
Gee is for now.
trs86
3/13/2012-10:07am at 10:07 am (UTC -4)
That wasn’t my point though:
“The challenge for the Mets is to make sure the other 4 guys are better than Pelfrey. ”
Again, Pelfrey is not what is killing the Mets in general it’s not having 4 guys better than him.
kingman 26
3/13/2012-10:19am at 10:19 am (UTC -4)
“Pelfrey is not what is killing the Mets in general it’s not having 4 guys better than him.”
Extremely well-said and I agree totally.
Pelf is a lightning rod for negativity; it is not Pelf’s fault that Niese has been just OK, that Santana’s always hurt, that Gee got bombed after the league figured him out, etc.
I have never ever been a Pelf basher, and I would love to see him develop/mature/whatever.
But still, what he gives, as a 4 or 5 on a team with 3 or 4 very good, reliably healthy pitchers, is, as you point out, really fine.
Who knows, in 2 years, maybe the rotation is Wheeler, Harvey, Familia, Niese, and Pelf.
That could be really good.
Maybe.
trs86
3/13/2012-10:28am at 10:28 am (UTC -4)
Honestly if Pelf doesn’t show some growth this year, I see no way he is in the rotation next year.
MetsFan4Decades
3/13/2012-9:01am at 9:01 am (UTC -4)
Is there anyone who is predicting a bounce back or better type year from Big Pelf? Not that I’ve read…..
Count me in the ‘what you’re seeing is what we’re getting’ from Pelfrey.
He had the potential but lack of quality development time in the minors might have done him in. He doesn’t seem to have the pitching smarts to have overcome that up here at the ML level.
We’ll never know now if rushing him was the difference maker.
He’s a 4th type starter who will likely give you 200 innings.
Since SP depth is a problem this year, he fills a nitch.
SaltyGary
3/13/2012-9:26am at 9:26 am (UTC -4)
A few weeks ago I googled his old scouting reports and the concerns of him at drafting are the same issues now. Good fastball, weak secondary pitches, and confidence issues. I think you are dead on about the pitching smarts, he just didn’t have enough to break through to that next level. And that’s fine if you are able to sign other pitchers, but that hasn’t been a goal for almost a decade with this team.
In the last ten years we got Santana, which was awesome, but then the next two big acquisitions are Pedro and Glavine. Two guys on the tail end of their careers. I have no issue with the Pedro signing, they were trying to get that legitimacy back, but I’ve always been against Glavine. I am convinced going to my grave that he was wearing a Braves jersey in that final game of ’07.
trs86
3/13/2012-9:34am at 9:34 am (UTC -4)
You know Glavine gets way to bad of a rap because of that game and because of his Braves history.
He was brought in when he was obviously past his prime and slotted as an ace. Considering he was going against the other team’s best pitcher most of the time he did very well at a reasonable cost. And if there is anything we know about Glavine, he never ever wanted to lose a game.
SaltyGary
3/13/2012-9:41am at 9:41 am (UTC -4)
The guy always just went though the motions. “The Game” to me was just the cherry on top. I just always had a problem with him on the team. After going through the nineties rivalry with the Mets, I still don’t get why he signed with them. Sure it was for the money but the guy is intellectual enough to understand that it’s probably going to feel dirty as well. Plus the team was on another great decline, so I am sure he could of taken a couple million less and got himself in a better situation. To me it will go down as one of the oddest acquisitions for the team.
MetsFan4Decades
3/13/2012-9:58am at 9:58 am (UTC -4)
Same opinion from me as well, Salty.
I never really warmed up to Glavine much. I realized he was going into the tail end of his career but still thought he had something left in the tank. He wasn’t all that bad but that last game 162? Bah……so glad his contract was over that year. I might have made an exception on my no booing policy if I saw him in a Met uniform the next year.
SaltyGary
3/13/2012-9:16am at 9:16 am (UTC -4)
“Mike Pelfrey is an enigma wrapped in a riddle.” – I prefer my enigma’s wrapped in bacon.
Anyhoo, I’ve never been a Pelf fan. Something about low confidence, inconsistent pitchers just doesn’t do it for me.Rushing him probably hurt him a little, but I am not sold that if you are rushed you can never catch up on that lost development time. He had to be rushed, with Pedro on the shelf and the first collapse looming, the team needed him up and it was the right call.
If there was a better staff around him, then the need for him to pitch well wouldn’t be such a black cloud. Having a weak 3 strong 4 come in the rotation from the minors is a good thing. Did we have higher expectations, sure, but if the team were built in a way where they could have had him slotted correctly, then we would be happy paying 5m for him and he would be a good anchor.
Ceetar
3/13/2012-9:34am at 9:34 am (UTC -4)
most people picking a ‘bounce back’ year from Pelfrey realize he hasn’t really been much different year to year. so it’s not really a bounce back, merely 2011 being more bad luck than normal.
Of course, that consistency ignores the soft-contact aspect of pitching. Pelfrey is going to be somewhere between a tick above league average, and mediocre. There’s a long discussion to be had about sabermetrics and HR/FB rate and how it correlates to pitcher ability. I don’t have the time or patience to defend research and statistics today though. Suffice to say, if Pelfrey refines his control of his sinker and gets more ground balls (career low last year) he’ll be more serviceable than sucky.
The ongoing ‘argument’ here is the Mets offense, which I think will be excellent, which means the Mets should get more wins and value out of serviceable quality start guys.
15-8, 4.4 ERA, 201 IP, 114 K and 69 BB.
Ceetar
3/13/2012-9:36am at 9:36 am (UTC -4)
whee..I forgot to close my HREF tags. I miss ‘link’ buttons.
Pelfrey
trs86
3/13/2012-9:42am at 9:42 am (UTC -4)
Nice article. We need to post that as a link here.
trs86
3/13/2012-9:37am at 9:37 am (UTC -4)
Well, I can’t open the link because your site is categorized as alcohol.
Ceetar
3/13/2012-9:39am at 9:39 am (UTC -4)
really? well damn. you know which firewall/guard you use?
trs86
3/13/2012-9:43am at 9:43 am (UTC -4)
Lightspeed systems.
Ceetar
3/13/2012-9:53am at 9:53 am (UTC -4)
I wonder if it’s because I have a ‘brewery’ tap on the site, or because my post after that one was a ‘Mets and beer’ post. hmm, firewalls are weird.
SaltyGary
3/13/2012-10:04am at 10:04 am (UTC -4)
You don’t have beer in any of your Meta tags, so the fire wall is probably scanning key words in your source code and “brew” is abundant.
MetsFan4Decades
3/13/2012-10:08am at 10:08 am (UTC -4)
Just an FYI, I had no problem clicking to your article, once I realized it was posted on your site.
I’m not behind a firewall though on this PC.
Ceetar
3/13/2012-10:10am at 10:10 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, maybe I should start referring to them as suds and brewskis to trick the anti-adult beverage firewalls.
kingman 26
3/13/2012-10:02am at 10:02 am (UTC -4)
So 31 wins from Dickey and Pelf.
Are the Mets going to win 100 this year?
Ceetar
3/13/2012-10:08am at 10:08 am (UTC -4)
I’m projecting most of the wins onto the starters since the offense is good and the bullpen should hold leads.
probably another 31 from Niese and Santana, maybe 11 from Gee. that’s 73. plus the late inning/reliever wins.
trs86
3/13/2012-10:16am at 10:16 am (UTC -4)
Ceetar if our starters win 73 games then I will ride my bike to where you are and give you a nickel and a hug. LOL that’s WAY too optimistic even for you.
At best I see 60 and that’s at best!
trs86
3/13/2012-10:17am at 10:17 am (UTC -4)
For example, the Phillies got 70 from their top 5 last year.
SaltyGary
3/13/2012-10:20am at 10:20 am (UTC -4)
I think if this prediction fails, then Ceet needs to create a TRDMB batch of beer and ship it to all of us. Maybe a black IPA called “Plate of Crow”.
Ceetar
3/13/2012-10:29am at 10:29 am (UTC -4)
70 from ALL starters is probably a bit high as a team total, but if you want to take the bet I’d make it and mail you a pair of beers of whatever I have brewed at that time. I’ll even create a TRDMB label for it.
TRS86
3/13/2012-10:56am at 10:56 am (UTC -4)
DONE
Ceetar
3/13/2012-10:26am at 10:26 am (UTC -4)
~79 from all their starters though.
TRS86
3/13/2012-10:57am at 10:57 am (UTC -4)
You only included 5 guys though Ceetar. Also, that team won how many games? Again, I am not seeing more than 60. 12 wins each on average would be amazing.
Stick
3/13/2012-11:07am at 11:07 am (UTC -4)
Not if they all stay healthy and make 30+ starts though. Then 60 is certainly conservative, and 70 is not pushing it too bad (14 on average).
That is the problem with predicting like that, some of the guys usually don’t make all their starts. So, you need to “buddy them up” with whoever will cover in their absence.
Ceetar
3/13/2012-11:11am at 11:11 am (UTC -4)
I don’t like projecting injuries. So when I say 70, I’m including say Batista for Santana or Schwinden for Niese, although I really really hope that’s not the case and I suspect Batista might be cut loose under the new CBA rule if Santana makes it to Opening Day.
Ceetar
3/13/2012-10:22am at 10:22 am (UTC -4)
to be fair, I’m not really predicting them in tandem. I’m looking at what they could do individually. Wins are so random, and more runs will come in one guys start than another, or in the 9th inning instead of the first. All outside a pitcher’s control.
Baseball as a whole has too much random for me to put much effort into breaking down each win and assigning it to a specific pitcher to represent an arbitrary amount I think they’ll all win.
kingman 26
3/13/2012-10:25am at 10:25 am (UTC -4)
So Pelf ties his career high for wins and Niese and Dickey by far exceed their career highs and Santana wins 15 or so–his Met high was 16 four years ago.
As for the pen—Parnell is mediocre, Byrdak’s gone, and Francisco and Rauch are career mediocrities–neither has ever had a sustained period of success as a closer.
Ceetar
3/13/2012-10:27am at 10:27 am (UTC -4)
Parnell’s better than that, Byrdak wasn’t good anyway. Ramirez is very good, Acosta has done pretty well.
trs86
3/13/2012-10:31am at 10:31 am (UTC -4)
Hmmm, Parnell’s better than mediocre and Byrdak wasn’t good. I am confused at how you came to these conclusions.
kingman 26
3/13/2012-10:37am at 10:37 am (UTC -4)
Did you see Parnell when he was moved to the closer role?
Parnell has never—and research shows this literally goes back to his days at Charleston Southern as a college pitcher–been consistently good at any role for any long period of time.
TRS86
3/13/2012-10:55am at 10:55 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, I honestly think what would be best for Parnell would be to go back to AAA and be the closer. At least get the sense of some pressure. I am afraid in the current pen he is just the mop up guy and if so then how do you over come that?
My point on Byrdak? He was VERY effective in his role last year. He’s nothing pretty but people get on him unfairly and should take a look at his splits before doing so.
Ceetar
3/13/2012-11:01am at 11:01 am (UTC -4)
Herrera actually has better numbers (obviously in a smaller sample) than Byrdak against lefties.
Byrdak had a ~3.88 ERA last season. Yes, most of that was in April and May, but those games count too.
Parnell even had a lower ERA than Bydrak, though not by much. i suspect it’s more coincidental that his downs came while the closer than it being anything to do with pressure or demeanor. He’s like 4th on that depth chart at this point anyway.
TRS86
3/13/2012-2:43pm at 2:43 pm (UTC -4)
Are we really using ERA as a great guide for BP pitchers? Especially a LOOGY? Someone who is usually never in charge of their actual runs scoring?
.222 .271 .333 .604 vs LH last year
.229 .339 .333 .672 with RISP
.215 .297 .329 .626 with men on
36/6 SO/BB ratio against LH
Ceetar
3/13/2012-3:10pm at 3:10 pm (UTC -4)
And Herrera’s career numbers are actually better than those against lefties.
Bydrak had a .772 OPS in the first half. He bounced back and had a good second half, with a blip right at the end, but basically he’s eminently replaceable.
TRS86
3/13/2012-3:36pm at 3:36 pm (UTC -4)
Herrera has pitched about 30 innings in the last 3 years and has not pitched more than 23 innings in a season since 2009. I wonder why teams weren’t trying to give him a contract?
Ceetar
3/13/2012-3:50pm at 3:50 pm (UTC -4)
and yet his numbers aren’t worse.
Most of the other candidates don’t really translate well to splits, since they either haven’t relieved in that manner or are prospects. But for the 2.5% of innings that a LOOGY pitches, it doesn’t look like we’re in for much of a drop off, if any, for Byrdak’s replacement.
TRS86
3/13/2012-3:54pm at 3:54 pm (UTC -4)
So you think his numbers MIGHT be the same IF he was given the chance based on his numbers from 2009?
Again, Byrdak pitched very well for the Mets last year and losing him as the LOOGY is a tough loss. Is it major in the scheme of things as long as he comes back in May? Nope. Saying that Herrera can replace him and has just as good of numbers is a stretch. Why not bring in Jessie O? His numbers would be even better. Who cares if he has not pitched in a few?
Ceetar
3/13/2012-4:16pm at 4:16 pm (UTC -4)
well, I was going with Herrera’s career numbers given sample size, so that includes last year. he’s also only 27.
Extremely minor part of the team. Byrdak let up about 9 walks/hits a month. Even if Herrera/whoever was 50% worse, that’s only 9 more baserunners through May.
gategem
3/13/2012-9:17am at 9:17 am (UTC -4)
Before listing my PIOOYA projection for Mike Pelfry I thought it necessary to assuage the fears of Mets fans for the upcoming season by reminding people that we are not alone. Misery loves company and look at these comments from the blog Posting and Toasting:
“So I have generally been in a shitty mood for the last week or so
and I couldnt figure out why. Everyone was pissing me off and for the life of me I didn’t know what was wrong. Then my girlfriend stopped by for a few minutes in the 3rd quarter (I go to college and she lives in the apartment next door) and witnessed me watching this team and was like DUDE STOP WATCHING THIS SHIT ITS KILLING YOU. So…yeah….I think i figured out what is wrong”
“you and me. I’m turning into an asshole too. I’ve become short tempered and fiery. I think i almost punched someone today.”
“You may want to hedge your emotional investment in the team
You are a human being and you don’t have to put yourself through this. Would that make you a bad fan? Maybe. But your emotional stability is more important. Treat yourself to some time away from the Knicks and with your friends/family/significant other, maybe.”
Now back to Pelfrey. One of the telling signs when Pelfrey is on the mound is the body language he exhibits. As Edward T. Hall wrote “I have learned to depend more on what people do than what they say in response to a direct question, to pay close attention to that which cannot be consciously manipulated, and to look for patterns rather than content.” At times it appears as if Pelfrey is totally baffled as to why he on the mound and what he must do next. IOW he appears to be clueless and then becomes exasperated by the ordeal. Complicating the matter is that Pelfrey has lost much of the physical talent he once possessed. But to Pelfrey’s credit he does eat innings and is still well above a batting practice pitcher. So my PIOOYA formulae projects:
9-13, 4.60 ERA, 1.61 WHIP
MetsFan4Decades
3/13/2012-10:13am at 10:13 am (UTC -4)
Couple of things:
Agree with you about demeanor and body language on the mound. Bit difference between Pelf and Johan, for example. Even when Johan is having a bad outing he still goes about his business and doesn’t look totally confused as Pelf does sometime.
The other thing I wanted to comment on is the first part of your post.
I love baseball but I can’t imagine taking it that seriously where bad baseball by the Mets would consume me to that level. Obviously if you’re not enjoying it stepping away might be in order before you’re jumping off that ledge…..
NJstuckinTX
3/13/2012-9:53am at 9:53 am (UTC -4)
Just cause I’m in one of those moods today…
5-14, 4.98 ERA, 1.57 whip.
SaltyGary
3/13/2012-9:59am at 9:59 am (UTC -4)
Hahaha. Poof goes the game!
SaltyGary
3/13/2012-9:58am at 9:58 am (UTC -4)
Hey MMO posters can you try just sticking around here today. Now that the season is starting to gear up, there isn’t really any good reason to poke the bears. Took a gander yesterday and saw a lot of back and forth about Dada’s HR. If that banter was done here, the site would get it’s traffic back and you wouldn’t have to deal with some jerk face interrupting the flow with their venom. Just try it for a week, you will be better for it.
kingman 26
3/13/2012-10:00am at 10:00 am (UTC -4)
HAHAHA!
Poking “bears”?
More like poking mentally unstable dumb kids!
SaltyGary
3/13/2012-10:12am at 10:12 am (UTC -4)
It was fun to be a punk but I don’t understand why people subject themselves to that madness. And I really don’t want this place to fizzle out. It’s been a great blog with a great community, and the content is here it just needs some of that fluff back.
Paul has been fabulous, Bryan made this place the best for minor league reporting and having the morning consistently start off with Rusty has always been key. My complaint has always been that there were too many Fluff posts like Breaking News and a post just to display the lineup, some of that stuff is better server though a “Widget”, but now that stuff went to the extreme opposite and had disappeared. If the site just needs a couple extra hands on deck to help, I am willing and I am sure others are as well.
MetsFan4Decades
3/13/2012-10:14am at 10:14 am (UTC -4)
‘And I really don’t want this place to fizzle out. It’s been a great blog with a great community,’
What you said….times ten.
trs86
3/13/2012-10:26am at 10:26 am (UTC -4)
Salty this place is suffering from the loss of Grave more than any know. It has not been the same since. What we need is that creative post game guy that has all the time in the world to devote to this place.
I have brought in new author after new author but because we can’t pay it’s a never ending process. We are lucky that some of them have stuck but 10′s have not.
If you are truly interested then I will set you up as an author and we can get right at it. LOL. I have been after 4D as a author for about 4 years now…
SaltyGary
3/13/2012-10:37am at 10:37 am (UTC -4)
Set me up man, I’ll be happy to help.
You definitely don’t want me doing post game though. Too many beers in me by then and too much pain to write about. I wouldn’t be able to stay objective.
trs86
3/13/2012-10:39am at 10:39 am (UTC -4)
Uh… I think that might have been Grave’s secret.
kingman 26
3/13/2012-11:08am at 11:08 am (UTC -4)
Not sure it was a secret…
TRS86
3/13/2012-10:49am at 10:49 am (UTC -4)
You are good to go Salty. Let me know if you have any issues with the posting process. Remember that feature images have to be put in and there is a specific size that works best but I can’t remember… LOL. The best thing to keep in mind is that they have to be a rectangle.
Stick
3/13/2012-11:10am at 11:10 am (UTC -4)
I never did learn how to put the images in (or get the ones that show with the post box) with my occasional (but brilliant!) articles.
saltygary
3/13/2012-11:17am at 11:17 am (UTC -4)
OK, so to publish do I hit the “Meta” tab at the top to bring me to the WordPress admin and use the “QuickPress” tool at the top right to create and publish a story? Or am I way off?
saltygary
3/13/2012-11:20am at 11:20 am (UTC -4)
Never-mind, I see the post section and a place to add new posts.
MetsFan4Decades
3/13/2012-10:43am at 10:43 am (UTC -4)
Still miss Grave and his posts. He was truly unique.
MetsFan4Decades
3/13/2012-10:44am at 10:44 am (UTC -4)
Thanks for the vote of confidence but you really don’t want me as a contributor. I’m just not creative enough and really suck at writing.
TRS86
3/13/2012-10:48am at 10:48 am (UTC -4)
I have read your comments for years now and you sell yourself short by a wide margin.
MetsFan4Decades
3/13/2012-10:58am at 10:58 am (UTC -4)
Thanks again – I haven’t totally ruled it out.
Still don’t think my skills would translate well but maybe someday I’ll give it a try.
SaltyGary
3/13/2012-11:12am at 11:12 am (UTC -4)
You should just dabble with a Wednesday afternoon piece to get your confidence up. The great thing is you are here amongst friends. If it gets ugly, I’ll shoot you a quick message in the dugout
TRS86
3/13/2012-11:21am at 11:21 am (UTC -4)
Exactly, we are pretty friendly with each other with the exception of Kingman at times. He’s a tough critic on grammar but we can reel him in.
kingman 26
3/13/2012-11:37am at 11:37 am (UTC -4)
Well now, I do consider myself friendly with almost everyone on here.
I would guess that most folks here would agree.
kingman 26
3/13/2012-10:35am at 10:35 am (UTC -4)
I am sorry; I like to think I used to make a nice contribution and am going to try during the year, but life has just gotten too busy for me to comment much and to have the time to craft posts.
But I agree, especially when I visit Metsblog or the Ledger or the true home of idiocy MMO, that the comment community here is without parallel, and this is so totally obvious.
It’s amazing really, how great the commenters here are.
trs86
3/13/2012-10:38am at 10:38 am (UTC -4)
I think the problem we have is that the “core” authors (to borrow from Alex) have been here so long and the loyal readers have been here so long that we really already know what each other’s viewpoints are and honestly have nothing new to say… LOL. That is why the new guys are so important.
kingman 26
3/13/2012-10:44am at 10:44 am (UTC -4)
Yeah TRS I think you and I could probably sit at a table and have a long baseball debate without even speaking if someone presented us with topics!
TRS86
3/13/2012-10:46am at 10:46 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, I have always laughed how those guys at MMO think we all get along and share one opinion. Yet they don’t realize that the only opinion we share 100% of the time is their ignorance. LOL.
kingman 26
3/13/2012-10:58am at 10:58 am (UTC -4)
HAHAHA! Agreed again.
That’s kind of how I feel when I go to MMO and see you there!
MetsFan4Decades
3/13/2012-10:59am at 10:59 am (UTC -4)
I should have never taken a mouthful of coffee before I read this. hahaha
Stick
3/13/2012-10:10am at 10:10 am (UTC -4)
It was more about no activity here, so needing to go soemplace for a discussion fix. And for me, until the last site change here, I couldn’t even access this place during the day.
i do agree that the level of discourse there has gotten really bad.
MetsFan4Decades
3/13/2012-10:18am at 10:18 am (UTC -4)
I was having the same problem for a while trying to load this site. Much better now for me.
SaltyGary
3/13/2012-10:21am at 10:21 am (UTC -4)
Was it when they used “Disques” for the comment section?
trs86
3/13/2012-10:22am at 10:22 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, Disquss is blocked by many.
Stick
3/13/2012-10:13am at 10:13 am (UTC -4)
Let us see, prediction? Pretty bad but really tall (or is that really bad but pretty tall?)
anyway, # wise I would say something around last year. Mid 4 ERA, lots of baserunners.
MetsFan4Decades
3/13/2012-10:24am at 10:24 am (UTC -4)
OT:
I’m reading where Brad Lidge says this is the best team he’s ever been on.
Read recently where Davey said it’s the best team he’s ever managed.
So the Nats are now the class of the NL east and are winning the WS this year?
I certainly hope as a Met fan my entertainment this year isn’t going to strictly be listening to these 4 other teams in the NL east thump their chests that they’re the best while trash talking the rest.
I hope they all tank and we’re the Cinderella team.
Yes, I can dream.
NJstuckinTX
3/13/2012-10:28am at 10:28 am (UTC -4)
People are in the best shape of their life in spring training, too!
kingman 26
3/13/2012-10:28am at 10:28 am (UTC -4)
The Nats are absolutely loaded with pitching potential, and some really good position players today.
And remember, Davey has won a lot of games, and finished first or second almost every year of his managerial career.
trs86
3/13/2012-10:35am at 10:35 am (UTC -4)
They are better. It remains to be seen with some of the pitchers, especially health. Imagine what is riding on recently “recovered” arms in Straus, Zimm, and Wang.
Also their problem in the past has just been awful defense and times where they could not get out of their own way. Maybe Davey can change that fact.
I still think they messed up big IF they had a chance to get Prince and did not because they had an oft injured Laroche under contract.
kingman 26
3/13/2012-10:41am at 10:41 am (UTC -4)
Overall, and this is far from scientific, to me they just seem like a team really ready to take a big step forward.
That bullpen? Strasburg and Gio and Zimmerman and more?
Their pitching could be anywhere from above average as it was last year to outstanding and among the league’s best.
An 80-81 team adding Strasburg and Gio?
And Davey’s teams usually play the game hard and well.
TRS86
3/13/2012-10:47am at 10:47 am (UTC -4)
I would set their bar at 82 wins Kingman. You taking the over or under? In fact that would be a cool series. Lets do some over unders and track them. On topics from the Mets to non Mets.
kingman 26
3/13/2012-10:59am at 10:59 am (UTC -4)
Definitely the over.
I honestly feel that the Nats and Marlins take big steps forward and the Phils and Braves take steps back this year.
I think all of them hover between 85–92 wins and the Mets hover between 72–78.
TRS86
3/13/2012-11:18am at 11:18 am (UTC -4)
Kingman, if all 4 of them finish between 85-92 wins then the Mets aren’t winning 70 most likely.
Stick
3/13/2012-11:22am at 11:22 am (UTC -4)
or a team is winning the central with 75 wins!
kingman 26
3/13/2012-11:24am at 11:24 am (UTC -4)
Yeah but I see the Mets continuing their second half performance of last year—consistently beat the bad teams while losing to the better teams with an occasional win of 2 of 3 from the Phils and Braves thrown in.
TRS86
3/13/2012-11:31am at 11:31 am (UTC -4)
The problem is that the entire NL is about the same once you take away the Padres, Cubs, Astros and Mets, maybe throw in the Pirates. That means that a those 5 could have net a lot of losses just by losing to who they “should” lose to.
SaltyGary
3/13/2012-11:03am at 11:03 am (UTC -4)
I thought that was a perfect line. I would probably take the under.
MetsFan4Decades
3/13/2012-10:47am at 10:47 am (UTC -4)
If they landed Prince, they would be my pick as winners of the NL east.
I’m surprised they didn’t get him. Nats owner what’s-his-name (can’t remember off hand) as been identified as the richest owner of the 30 clubs recently.
TRS86
3/13/2012-10:51am at 10:51 am (UTC -4)
If they couldn’t afford Prince because of that awful contract they gave to Werth then they should come under incredible fire.
kingman 26
3/13/2012-11:01am at 11:01 am (UTC -4)
Nah, I think they combined the memory of Werth’s deal with the magnitude of Fielder’s waist and that matrix made signing Fielder for all that money unpalatable.
SaltyGary
3/13/2012-10:51am at 10:51 am (UTC -4)
Yea I am surprised they didn’t get Prince. I believe they will have some growing pains this yea, but next season should be the real breakout. I truly believe the writing is on the wall for Phili and this season maybe the last real shot for this bunch and next season the Nats are going to rise up to the top.
TRS86
3/13/2012-10:53am at 10:53 am (UTC -4)
IMO the Phillies are in deep doo-doo and if Halladay or Lee go down they could fall to 4th…. yeah I said it.
SaltyGary
3/13/2012-10:58am at 10:58 am (UTC -4)
Ya know if they didn’t get a guy like Pence I would agree, but they have enough pieces to not get that low. 35m this year to Howard and Utley. These high dollar contracts are really like cement shoes to ball-clubs.
TRS86
3/13/2012-11:03am at 11:03 am (UTC -4)
You sure? OK lets say that Halladay goes down.
Rotation
Lee, Hamels, Worley, Blanton, Kendrick… anything special there? Especially if Worley is not who we saw last year.
Lineup
Howard? Does he recover?
Utley? Injuries
Rollins? David Wright syndrome.
Placebo? No comment needed.
Gigantic hole in LF, solid in CF, RF and Catcher.
They also have some holes in the pen as well.
IMO they are Lee/Halladay injury and normal decline away from stinking.
As for my comment on sliding to 4th if that happens? Think about it. You got the Braves pitching and young offensive players with potential, Marlins with people predicting WS and the Nats. I could easily see a situation where the Phillies finish 4th with 82 wins.
kingman 26
3/13/2012-11:07am at 11:07 am (UTC -4)
“Lee, Hamels, Worley, Blanton, Kendrick… anything special there?”
Well, how many teams in the game can say for sure they top those 1-2-3 guys?
Again, assuming Worley IS what he appeared to be.
And Hamels is going for a mammoth contract.
SaltyGary
3/13/2012-11:08am at 11:08 am (UTC -4)
Probably don’t agree with much there. I will wait until the division prediction post goes up, don’t have much more time today.
Stick
3/13/2012-11:18am at 11:18 am (UTC -4)
Man, and I thought it was me and MF that were on a crusade to downgrade the Phils!
but the special part that is Lee and Hamels, who if they pitch like last year are still the best top 2 in the NL (maybe MLB) even without Halladay.
the trick is, can those 3 pitch a combined 700+ innings again? That is a tall order.
what they need is 2 of them to go down, combined with the potential for less than stellar offense, to be right back scrambling in the pack.
oh, and damned I am rooting for the yanks to open the vault for Hamels.
anyway, the Phils don’t care that their rotation costs more than many teams. When you jack the payroll up to 180mill, that leaves plenty of money to spend elsewhere.
TRS86
3/13/2012-12:49pm at 12:49 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t think it will take two of them. Just one will make things much more interesting for sure. It’s how bad the offense was last year, especially considering half of the games are played in Sandlot Field.
MetsFan4Decades
3/13/2012-11:02am at 11:02 am (UTC -4)
You’re not the only one with this opinion.
That IF is old and w/o Howard it’s even older.
Who knows when Howard will be back now as he’s had a setback.
Polanco is 36 and coming off surgery.
Ruiz is coming off surgery.
Utley is in the same boat as Wright and hasn’t played a game yet – only Wright’s injury is healable (if that’s even a word). Utley’s is the same problem as Beltran.
I think they made a mistake spending all that money on Papelbon but we’ll see….
TRS86
3/13/2012-11:04am at 11:04 am (UTC -4)
No doubt when Madson ended up getting 12 bucks.
They should have shored up LF.
MetsFan4Decades
3/13/2012-11:08am at 11:08 am (UTC -4)
LOL
I would have paid them to take Bay.
kingman 26
3/13/2012-11:05am at 11:05 am (UTC -4)
4th place in the NL East this year could be 85–90 wins…
MetsFan4Decades
3/13/2012-11:11am at 11:11 am (UTC -4)
Are we thinking the NL central is gonna get beat up on this year?
The Cardinals have to be missing Pujols. Yeah, I know they got Beltran but not the same. I’m reading Carpenter has a problem now with a bulging disc – or something like that.
Not sure the Reds made enough improvements either.
Or am I completely off and you see all those wins against the Mets? Ugh…..
Personally, I’m not buying into the Mets are a 100 loss team this year.
TRS86
3/13/2012-11:14am at 11:14 am (UTC -4)
It could be but it really depends on if they beat each other up. There is honestly a good case for 4 teams all within a game or 2 of each other in the NL East where 89 wins is the tops.
Stick
3/13/2012-11:21am at 11:21 am (UTC -4)
that I could see.and a team in the central getting into the playoffs with a barely above .500 record (if not below). Kind of like 2006!
kingman 26
3/13/2012-11:27am at 11:27 am (UTC -4)
Nah, I see the DBacks and Cards taking HUGE steps back this year, and the NL East beating up on everyone. Even the Brewers without Prince could have a setback.
I do think the Braves and Phils slip a bit, but I see the Nats and Marlins as the game’s two most improved teams.
Unfortunately.
TRS86
3/13/2012-11:33am at 11:33 am (UTC -4)
I am not sold on the Marlins yet.
As for the Cards and Dbacks? Cards may take a step back but still win the division. Dbacks, I thought the same until I looked at the starting rotation. It’s not that bad at all. I do expect them to regress though.
It’s funny but to me all 3 divisions are so up for grabs it could be an interesting year. Too bad the Mets aren’t one of those teams.
NJstuckinTX
3/13/2012-11:38am at 11:38 am (UTC -4)
I’m not sold on the fish yet either. Nats are going to be solid though. Arizona is going to be good as well. I predict Upton is going to win MVP this year and toss that team on his back and take them to the Division title.
MetsFan4Decades
3/13/2012-11:43am at 11:43 am (UTC -4)
Regarding the Marlins…
Have to admit they’ve improved but going from last to first as some predict? That’s a tall order.
trs86
3/13/2012-10:33am at 10:33 am (UTC -4)
Lidge is just trying to kiss up and make sure he even makes the team.
MetsFan4Decades
3/13/2012-10:48am at 10:48 am (UTC -4)
Saw him strike out the side the other day in one of his outings.
He may have something left in the tank but I’ll bet the farm he doesn’t make it through the year without at least one extended DL trip or a couple of smaller ones.
That arm is held together by chewing gum and staples – which is why I had no problem with the Mets passing him up.
SaltyGary
3/13/2012-10:54am at 10:54 am (UTC -4)
Anyone else notice that Atlana is 1-10 this spring. Not that it matters and Toronto currently has the best Florida record, but 1-10 is pretty dismal.
TRS86
3/13/2012-10:59am at 10:59 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, Atlanta now gets to deal with what the Mets did in 2008 and 2009. Recover from a collapse. If they had a bunch of fans and negative media they would really be in trouble.
Ceetar
3/13/2012-11:07am at 11:07 am (UTC -4)
and the Mets added the ~best starter in baseball for 2008. The Braves did very little, and are dealing with a Hudson injury.
TRS86
3/13/2012-11:16am at 11:16 am (UTC -4)
While true but their minor leagues allow them not to have to add the best starter.
Ceetar
3/13/2012-11:21am at 11:21 am (UTC -4)
Oh, definitely. They’ve got starting pitching prospects hovering around Hudson like he’s carrion. I know experts are predicting Strasburg to win 35 of his 30 starts this season, but most guys tend to have some growing pains in their first season. How will they handle the stretch run as they’re tiring out after a long season? Hell, look at Kimbrel and Venters last season. They certainly looked a little worn down.
kingman 26
3/13/2012-11:30am at 11:30 am (UTC -4)
Well, Strasburg has 17 starts over two years, and almost every one was very good to outstanding.
The guy’s been a monster thus far.
Not much reason to expect anything less than an average all star year from him.
kingman 26
3/13/2012-11:32am at 11:32 am (UTC -4)
Plus, the Nats have already said Strasburg is going to be shut down after a certain number of innings (less than 200) so unless they go back on that or he gets pulled after 5 or 6 a lot, he won’t be pitching down the stretch.
MetsFan4Decades
3/13/2012-11:04am at 11:04 am (UTC -4)
Really? I didn’t know that.
Like you said, not that ST means anything but wonder what’s going on over there.
I know they’re rolling with a very young SS.
New hitting coach has been working with Heyward so don’t know how that will work out.
But with Atlanta, I think their real question marks are with their starting rotation.
MetsFan4Decades
3/13/2012-11:46am at 11:46 am (UTC -4)
Of for crying out loud…..Tejada’s injured now?
What the hell?
MetsFan4Decades
3/13/2012-11:47am at 11:47 am (UTC -4)
And Carrasco with an ankle injury – but that’s not necessarily a loss.
NJstuckinTX
3/13/2012-11:49am at 11:49 am (UTC -4)
Tejada will be administered aspirins… Must be serious.
Paul Festa
3/13/2012-12:00pm at 12:00 pm (UTC -4)
I strained my oblique writing this post. I’m day-to-day.
TRS86
3/13/2012-12:05pm at 12:05 pm (UTC -4)
Now I am getting concerned. Certainly they don’t have the back up at SS unless you call Cedeno a viable option.
NJstuckinTX
3/13/2012-12:06pm at 12:06 pm (UTC -4)
Turner!
kingman 26
3/13/2012-12:11pm at 12:11 pm (UTC -4)
Trade Wright for Reyes and then Hanley can move back to 3B!!!!
TRS86
3/13/2012-12:44pm at 12:44 pm (UTC -4)
That’s not gonna work.
MetsFan4Decades
3/13/2012-12:11pm at 12:11 pm (UTC -4)
TC a little more than concerned:
http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/mets/2012/03/tejada-injured-collins-fired-up
saltygary
3/13/2012-12:49pm at 12:49 pm (UTC -4)
Way too early for a comment like this:
“It’s not serious. It doesn’t have to be here. You need an aspirin, you’re off for a day.”
Stick
3/13/2012-1:21pm at 1:21 pm (UTC -4)
Terry seems to be a bit worked up here. This could be getting interesting!
I expect to see him with a bunch of namby pambys rant any time now.
NJstuckinTX
3/13/2012-2:00pm at 2:00 pm (UTC -4)
“5-14, 4.98 ERA, 1.57 whip.”…
I may have to lower the bar on this.
Pelf gives up 2 HRs already. New sinker, working like a charm.
saltygary
3/13/2012-3:37pm at 3:37 pm (UTC -4)
Once again some of you folks are caught into the same MMO comment death spiral arguing the same things. This is the definition of insanity…
TRS86
3/13/2012-3:50pm at 3:50 pm (UTC -4)
Eh, but I am posting here too so I can multi-task.
saltygary
3/13/2012-3:52pm at 3:52 pm (UTC -4)
That’s fine, the traffic here today gave me my fill. Where I am busting chops for you and a couple others is its the same argument every day.
TRS86
3/13/2012-3:58pm at 3:58 pm (UTC -4)
Oh I agree, I guess it’s like watching Pro-Wrestling or a soap-opera. You already know who’s going to win and there is the good guys and bad guys, there is no gray.