My player projections continue with…
Jon Niese, LHSP
Jonathon Niese has shown some promise during his first two full seasons in the big leagues. The 2005 7th round draft pick has a running fastball and a big, rounded hook that has led to the occasional comparison to Andy Pettitte and Cliff Lee.
However, in each season, Niese has followed a promising first half with a dismal second. In the first half of 2011, Jon was 8-7 with a 3.88 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. In the second half, he started only 9 games, and went 3-4 with a 5.67 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP.
The knock on Niese seems to be his conditioning. This offseason, Niese made an unusual move to try to rectify the problem. He got a nose job. Former Met Carlos Beltran offered to pay for a procedure that would allow Niese to breathe easier, which would lead to the ability to work out longer and harder. His formidable beak doesn’t look much different, but Niese says it works much better than it used to.
If the surgery helps Jon’s conditioning to the point where he can stay healthy all year, while putting up some innings, the Mets will certainly be able to breathe easier.
Projection: 12-10, 4.13 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
FanGraphs: 12-10, 3.88 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
Up next: Dillon Gee
45 comments
darknova306
3/14/2012-7:16am at 7:16 am (UTC -4)
I love Niese like Ceetar loved Ollie. I’m really hoping for a big step forward from Jon this year, despite his relative lack of progress so far. It’s make or break this year, Jon. I’ll throw you to the curb and get a new favorite player on this sad and mediocre team if you don’t show something this year.
MetsFan4Decades
3/14/2012-7:48am at 7:48 am (UTC -4)
I’m going to take the over on the predicted winning of 12 games. I don’t see Gee or Pelf winning 12 and have no idea how many games Johan will start. Someone has to be going deep in games and winning some games for the Mets. Otherwise, that BP is going to melt down early.
Niese has the potential so hoping this is the year he establishes himself as a front end type starter. Don’t think he’ll ever be considered an ace but he’s got the stuff to be a #2 type.
trs86
3/14/2012-8:20am at 8:20 am (UTC -4)
Wow, I guess I am way off on this one.
3.80 13-10 WHIP 1.29
kingman 26
3/14/2012-8:43am at 8:43 am (UTC -4)
Eh. We all thought Ollie and Maine would be great too for a while. A short while.
Yes, Niese has some good stuff, but really wound up in the rotation like Gee did–by default rather than doing anything too spectacular in the minors.
Those projections suggest some significant improvement over what Niese has done in his whole MLB career. I hope I am wrong as hell, but I just think this guy is what he is–basically a lefty Pelf with better stuff who looks like he should be better than he really is.
TRS86
3/14/2012-9:00am at 9:00 am (UTC -4)
I am not so sure you can compare him to Pelfrey or Ollie. The guy does seem to have some guts on the mound and really appears to be more conditioning than forgetting how to pitch every other start or inning to inning like those 2. If you take out those 4 August starts, I know that is cherry picking, his ERA would have been under 4.00. If you take out just his last start then his ERA dips to 4.05. Amazing what one bad start can do to your ERA. To me there is a lot of difference in a pitcher with a 4.05 ERA and a 4.40 ERA.
It’s hard to keep in mind but remember that Niese was only 24 last season and it was only his 2nd “full” season. As a LHP he could take the next step this season.
kingman 26
3/14/2012-9:19am at 9:19 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, this all does make a lot of sense. And I totally agree with the ERA comments.
For me, despite what you say about last year, what strikes me is the truly remarkable consistency of his numbers for each of his three seasons in the bigs–and yeah, just 5 starts in 2009 and the Ks and BBs have gotten better each year–but the ERA and WHIP really just is a pretty flat mediocre record.
But I do agree that, as with many other young Mets, the door of much hope is still open on Niese.
TRS86
3/14/2012-9:52am at 9:52 am (UTC -4)
Something else to keep in mind is that he had 15 “QS” last year. Now we can all debate if a QS is actually a quality start but what it does measure is your ability to keep teams in a game and at least go 6 innings.
kingman 26
3/14/2012-10:00am at 10:00 am (UTC -4)
I have never been a fan of that stat. A quality start is 6 IP and 3 ER or less, right?
So a guy would have a 4.50 ERA if he went 6 and gave up 3 every time.
In today’s game, that kind of is Pelf—eats innings, keeps the team competitive, but is not really all that great.
TRS86
3/14/2012-10:17am at 10:17 am (UTC -4)
I think if you look at it as the whole and not the part it becomes more important.
For example Pelfrey and Niese’s stats last year in terms of ERA and WHIP were not that much different
4.72 ERA 1.47 WHIP
4.40 ERA 1.41 WHIP
Yet QS
Pelfrey: 45%
Niese: 58%
To me that’s a big difference.
kingman 26
3/14/2012-10:34am at 10:34 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, nice work here; definitely a big difference–you are so right. Niese’s stats seem to be skewed by a few bad starts, while Pelf is way better at sucking consistently.
TRS86
3/14/2012-10:41am at 10:41 am (UTC -4)
Yeah when you combine that with what I showed earlier that his last start made his ERA go up 35 points I think there is much more hope for Niese. Of course even the non-saber gurus like us could have told you that… LOL.
kingman 26
3/14/2012-11:09am at 11:09 am (UTC -4)
HAHA–during this exchange I admit I was wondering what the Neanderthals at MMO would have thought of it!
NJstuckinTX
3/14/2012-9:09am at 9:09 am (UTC -4)
I think I’d go 14-9, actually. I think Niese is going to step it up this year.
I’d have to go back to see what I predicted for the others (but then again, my thoughts change on a daily basis.
Santana: 12 – 10
Dickey: 13 – 12
Niese: 14 – 9
Pelf: 5 – 14
Gee: 8 – 12
Orig. 5 Starters at 52 – 57
Random starters throughout the year around 7 – 15
Bullpen at 11 – 20
Final Record 70 – 92
MetsFan4Decades
3/14/2012-9:23am at 9:23 am (UTC -4)
Big Pelf with just 5 wins?
Man…it’s going to be a long season, isn’t it?
NJstuckinTX
3/14/2012-9:32am at 9:32 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, I’ve no faith in his “changes” this year. Predicting he bucks the every other year thing. Too bad it wasn’t after he had a good year.
gategem
3/14/2012-9:48am at 9:48 am (UTC -4)
There is an old adage in baseball that it takes longer for a lhp to develop than a rhp. Now honestly I have no idea if this is truly based on facts or is a baseball equivalent of an old wives tale. I’m too lazy to research it so I leave it to those of you that are statically inclined to either prove or disprove it. For the sake of us Mets fans lets hope it’s true. So applying it to my PIOOYA projection as a fudge factor we find:
12-9, 3.69 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
Ceetar
3/14/2012-11:08am at 11:08 am (UTC -4)
i’ve always wondered if that adage was simply a reflection of platoon splits. A righty has the matchup in his favor most of the time, whereas a lefty does not.
kingman 26
3/14/2012-11:10am at 11:10 am (UTC -4)
Ceetar, I have to say quite sincerely that that is an incredibly interesting way to view this issue which I never thought of.
Stick
3/14/2012-11:12am at 11:12 am (UTC -4)
I’m on the Neise bandwagon still too. And I am predicting this is the year that it actually all clicks (maybe it is the nose job pushing me over the edge?).
gate’s numbers look reasonable. But, key to me is, I think he will manage to get over the hump and complete a full season. And if he does, the results will be fine.
Hell, even a guy like Lee (and no, not saying he will become cliff lee) pretty much sucked for quite a few years early on, to the point where I remember serious talk in ST of being dumped (traded or cut), an ERA+ of 72 and a trip tot he minors will do that for a player. And that was his huge break out year. At age 29.
kingman 26
3/14/2012-11:16am at 11:16 am (UTC -4)
Lee’s breakout year was when he was 26, and Lee was better in the minors than Niese.
Sorry chief–but Duda is a better hitter than Lee ever was though, even in little league…
Stick
3/14/2012-11:25am at 11:25 am (UTC -4)
2005 (age 26) was a good year, but really only his W-L was notably good. Other than that, just mid level solid (era+ of 111).
followed up by a year that was eerily Pelfry-esque at 27. Followed by an age 28 year that would have embarrased Ollie (and which I am pretty sure included a trip to the minors).
it wasn’t until 2008 (age 29) that he blew up and posted gaudy stats, so yeah, that is what I consider his breakout year.
and my point simply was, sometimes it takes a while for guys with “stuff” to finally put it all together. And he was a lefty!
TRS86
3/14/2012-11:36am at 11:36 am (UTC -4)
Agreed, they were ready to cast off Lee for spare parts.
kingman 26
3/14/2012-12:17pm at 12:17 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, Lee has always been up and down, and I will boldly say that in 2–3 years he may be viewed as one of the most overrated and overpaid pitchers in history.
The best example of the late-bloomer-lefty in our time is Randy Johnson–he did not have HIS breakout year until age 29, and to me, he may be the greatest pitcher of the last 20 years.
His decade from 1993–2002 is just a full decade of absolute incredible dominance.
Yes, I lived in Seattle then and am biased, but I don’t think I have ever seen anyone aside from Doc in 1985 be as dominant as Randy J was in 1995.
TRS86
3/14/2012-11:43am at 11:43 am (UTC -4)
Also to say that Lee was better in the minors if so it’s only marginal and relative to the fact that Niese was younger as well.
Career in AAA
Lee: 3.35 ERA 1.38 WHIP with the ages being 23, 24 and 28.
Niese: 3.66 ERA 1.26 WHIP with the ages being 21 and 22.
MetsFan4Decades
3/14/2012-11:52am at 11:52 am (UTC -4)
Can I ask….what site do you use when you normally go looking for stats?
Trying to determine which is the best one…..
Ceetar
3/14/2012-12:00pm at 12:00 pm (UTC -4)
baseball-reference.com pretty much has everything you need, including splits, expanded stats, and game by game data.
fangraphs if you wanna go real crazy with things like swing percentage and fastball value.
MetsFan4Decades
3/14/2012-12:01pm at 12:01 pm (UTC -4)
Thanks!
kingman 26
3/14/2012-12:12pm at 12:12 pm (UTC -4)
Ceetar’s right on the money—baseballreference is a frigin gold mine for the traditional stuff–majors and minors–and a lot of advanced stuff too.
Stick
3/14/2012-12:34pm at 12:34 pm (UTC -4)
that’s the one I always use.
TRS86
3/14/2012-12:12pm at 12:12 pm (UTC -4)
mostly baseball reference. Espn used to do a great job of allowing double splits but I haven’t needed those as much lately.
Ceetar
3/14/2012-1:28pm at 1:28 pm (UTC -4)
ESPN still do the double splits? I was looking the other day, was interested in seeing what the (small sample size and all) numbers said for bay against LHP in September last year.
ESPN does well with the team stats, if you want to see which bullpen has the best ERA. I think you can get that on B-R too but I never remember where it is.
saltygary
3/14/2012-1:50pm at 1:50 pm (UTC -4)
In ESPN just pull up the particular player and hit the “splits” tab.
I love BR, but ESPN’s format is easier on the eyes.
Ceetar
3/14/2012-1:56pm at 1:56 pm (UTC -4)
the splits just does singular splits though no? Doesn’t break down the Sept stats.
Ceetar
3/14/2012-11:17am at 11:17 am (UTC -4)
Injuries are Niese’s biggest concern right now. I also wonder how many of his starts last year at the end included him feeling pain.
Fangraphs predictions are based on Niese being a bit of a sabr darling because of the K and K/BB rate. But he’s maintained that high hit rate, which is what’s kept his ERA high, for a while now and it’s starting to not look like just bad luck, and his swinging strike percentage is a tick below league average.
On the other hand, he increased his K rate and decreased his walk rate last year. That’s a plus. Can he continue the improvement?
14-9 with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. 180 IP, 165 Ks
Ceetar
3/14/2012-1:42pm at 1:42 pm (UTC -4)
off topic: FAntasy BAseball
Anyone see/heard from dirty? I nudged him to renew last years league, but no response.
You guys interested in creating one?
saltygary
3/14/2012-1:48pm at 1:48 pm (UTC -4)
If it’s in yahoo, no. ESPN or CBS yes. I really don’t care for Yahoo’s format and after 2 years of trying it, I’m just not into it.
ESPN is free and I would be happy to set it up if Dirt Dog is too busy.
Ceetar
3/14/2012-1:57pm at 1:57 pm (UTC -4)
I’d be willing to do whereever, though I already check two different sites for fantasy.
saltygary
3/14/2012-2:12pm at 2:12 pm (UTC -4)
Where do you go?
Ceetar
3/14/2012-2:13pm at 2:13 pm (UTC -4)
I’ve got Yahoo and Fangraph’s ottoneu.
Ceetar
3/14/2012-2:27pm at 2:27 pm (UTC -4)
I should mention that there is two spots open in the Crane Pool Forum’s ottoneu league. first year, draft’s next Thursday night. ottoneu is $10 though. Auction draft, 40 man rosters, $400 cap, dynasty style.
saltygary
3/14/2012-3:21pm at 3:21 pm (UTC -4)
That looks awesome, I’ve been dying to get into a keeper league. Can I get in?
Ceetar
3/14/2012-3:42pm at 3:42 pm (UTC -4)
yeah, DM me or email me (ceetar@ceetar.com) and I’ll give you the link/password.
NJstuckinTX
3/14/2012-2:28pm at 2:28 pm (UTC -4)
I’ve become snobbish. Only will do CBS sportsline. Weekly lineups.
saltygary
3/14/2012-3:26pm at 3:26 pm (UTC -4)
I’m a CBS Snob as well. If there is enough interest lets do it, they have a free private option. The free option doesn’t allow customization just as a FYI. The commissioner (which is probably overkill for this crew) is $250 for the league.
Lets see if we can get a hold of Dirty to see where he stands.
darknova306
3/14/2012-3:01pm at 3:01 pm (UTC -4)
I’d be in for another league, regardless of site being used though I’ve only really had experience with Yahoo. I’m in a Fleaflicker league this year and the interface seems pretty nice.