My player projections continue with…
Johan Santana, LHSP
Can he lift the Mets again?
Following over a year of rehab and recovery from a torn anterior capsule in his shoulder, Johan Santana is ramping up for Opening Day. His Spring Training starts and bullpen sessions have reportedly gone off without a hitch, and he’s scheduled to start again today for the Mets.
Besides being healthy thus far, he has been effective. His fastball has been clocked at 87-90 MPH, and his changeup has maintained a 10-12 MPH differential. He’s also been working on throwing more sliders, in an effort to increase his deception to compensate for his drop in velocity. But there’s still a chance he may pick up a MPH or two before Spring Training is over. And since he joined the Mets, he hasn’t thrown much more than 92-93 anyway, and has still put together three very good seasons.
There’s also a chance his shoulder will fail him once again. Chien-Ming Wang had the same injury, and it took him two years to come back. On top of that, Santana had a more invasive version of the surgery – doctors had to cut through muscle to repair his anterior capsule.
As of now, Johan is on track to return, but it’s a long way from here to Opening Day, and an even longer way to the end of the regular season. The Mets will be cautious, taking every opportunity to give him extra rest, and maybe even shutting him down at the end of the season. If he gets 20 starts – and I believe he can – the team will be happy.
Projection: 23 GS, 9-5, 3.68 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
FanGraphs: 23 GS, 10-8, 3.53 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
Next week: The bullpen and bench (sounds like an English pub).
9 comments
Stickguy
3/16/2012-7:26am at 7:26 am (UTC -4)
well certainly so far it has been encouraging. And other than seeing Ike looking dialed in, the only positive out of camp.
But, I am sticking with my original prediction.
a 0.00 ERA. Because I don’t believe he will pitch until I see him on a mound in a real game.
If he does, I will predict about 15 starts (1/2 a season) and 75 innings (being reduced to a 5 inning pitcher). So get the man a caddy. Figure an OK whip (1.3?) and 4ish ERA. Not many wins (3-7?) based on the short outings.
NJstuckinTX
3/16/2012-8:30am at 8:30 am (UTC -4)
Santana: 12 – 10 3.99 ERA, 1.23 Whipper.
All the odds say he should fall apart physically. That’s why he’s destined to be the healthiest of the bunch!
darknova306
3/16/2012-12:43pm at 12:43 pm (UTC -4)
That would make a ton of sense given this team lately.
TRS86
3/16/2012-8:52am at 8:52 am (UTC -4)
Hmmm, this one is tough. IF he makes enough starts to balance out the sample size I will say
9-5 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over about 120 innings and 20 starts.
Ceetar
3/16/2012-9:36am at 9:36 am (UTC -4)
Too hard to gauge injury/recover/etc. So I’m posting this with the caveat that he makes Opening Day. I think the biggest risk to him going down building up towards full game strength.
13-6, 3.46, 170.1 IP, 165 K
MetsFan4Decades
3/16/2012-9:38am at 9:38 am (UTC -4)
I have no idea what to expect. Been saying all along he won’t be ready by opening day but so far he seems to be right on track. Go figure.
I’m still going with he winds up on the DL at some point – whether it’s sooner or later.
I’ll go with 18 starts, 110 innings. 9 wins. 1.30 WHIP.
TRS86
3/16/2012-10:04am at 10:04 am (UTC -4)
We are almost identical.
Hey just as a side note, we really need to get you a gravatar so we don’t have to look at that black box, LOL.
Stick
3/16/2012-12:22pm at 12:22 pm (UTC -4)
what happened to the white dog she used to have?
gategem
3/16/2012-10:25am at 10:25 am (UTC -4)
My PIOOYA regressive algorithm employs a maximum likelihood estimation on whether or not Johan will rebound from the surgery. The results I got back were too ambivalent to be of value. So I’ll take a guess (which honestly is what I always do):
15 GS, 4-4, 3.89 ERA, 1.42 WHIP