Today as we continue the Over Under series I am beginning another series as well. This one will look at each team trying to define what player is the biggest question mark for their team. A player whose success is vital to their team yet has uncertainty surrounding them. This does not mean the team will fall apart if they do poorly, nor does it mean that the team will win the division if they do great. Obviously for a team to do poorly or a team to do well it relies much more on than on just one player. That being said, lets take a look.
Phillies: This one is a tough one because honestly they have so many. Again, don’t get me wrong they are still the class of the league for now but there are a lot more question marks than there were 2 years ago.
Ryan Howard: The slugging 1B provides much of the pop in a pop lesser lineup. He will miss at least the first month, maybe more and then will he be able to generate the power that we are all accustomed to?
Chase Utley: This guy has yet to play a spring training game and has not played even close to a full season since 2009. For 2010 and 2011 he averaged: .267 .367 .435 .802. Bad for a 2nd baseman? Obviously no. Bad for the Phillies and Chase Utley? Yeah. Even if you average those out to 162 games he would be at 21 HR and 81 RBI, not really the production you want from your #3 hitter on a championship club.
Roy Halladay: It’s spring training.
Winner: To me it’s Chase Utley. The team just plays at a different level when he is on the field. The confidence, composure and swagger all seem to take a hit when he is out.
Braves:
Jason Heyward: This young slugger was supposed to take the Braves to the next level. However, if there was ever a definition of a sophomore slump, Heyward would be it. A .227 .319 .389 .708 slash line has him keeping pace with Jason Bay.
Winner: Jason Heyward. Really was there any need to go on? He is the key. Their pitching will be fine, Chipper will hit when he is healthy and we know he won’t be part of the time. McCann will hit and the bullpen will be solid.
Nationals:
Oh wow, this one will not be as easy.
Jayson Werth: Signed an awful contract and played like his contract. Here is another guy who wishes he had not produced like Jason Bay. If the Nationals want to take the next step then Werth needs to produce. Not only that but if it comes out that they did not make a better offer to Prince because of Werth’s contract then all 3 Nationals fans should rise up and storm the Bastille.
Ryan Zimmerman: Wright’s buddy also dealt with injuries and poor play last season. Now the pressure will be on after signing a contract extension.
Stephen Strasburg: When healthy the guy is showing flashes of taking the status of MAN. However, can he hold up for an entire season? The Nationals are already saying they will limit his innings. How they do this will be a good question. Can they do it early so he will be there for the pennant race? Having Wang get injured again is a blow to that plan.
Winner: I could have went in another direction here but for me it’s Strasburg. Without him the Nationals pitching staff goes from Really Good to Above Average.
Marlins:
They have two guys in my opinion.
Hanley Ramirez: Man oh man, the questions surround this guy. Was he that injured last year or did pouting become a major issue? Contrary to the opinion of some, Hanley has shown himself to be a ME and ONLY ME first kind of guy. If the Marlins struggle or he struggles at 3B he could be a ticking time bomb of disgruntle team killing poison. The Marlins really need him to have a quick start.
Josh Johnson: The dominant Josh Johnson has been in the league now for 7 years and has pitched 1, count them, 1 full season. He has averaged only around 18 starts per season the last 5 years and only 111 innings. Last year was more of the same logging only 60 innings over 9 starts. The Marlins Ace will have to be able to shake off that inability to produce a full season and come in firing for the Marlins to be the darling that everyone predicts. Without him their rotation takes a severe hit and Mark Buehrle becomes your ace.
Winner: Tough call, their pitching staff is average without Josh but their team chemistry could be destroyed with a pouting Hanley. I am going with Hanley Ramirez.
Mets: Obviously the Mets have a slew of question marks from Davis, to Duda, to Murphy at 2B, to Tejada, to Pelfrey, to Niese, … Of course you might be able to list more for these other teams as well and some of these seem more severe to us because we live and breath Mets. However, there are two names that seem clear to me.
David Wright: Another guy who has yet to see Spring Training action. Wright is coming off his worst season of his career that was mired with injury and starting off the season mired with injury. Without Wright’s RH bat in the lineup the lineup becomes very LH dominant and honestly just plain awful.
Johan Santana: Obviously a healthy Johan does more than just log some decent innings for the Mets. His presence on the mound, in the clubhouse and in the media is huge for this rebuilding team.
Winner: David Wright. In so many ways this year and the Mets future depends on a healthy David Wright. Even if they decide to trade him, for the Mets to net the prospects they need Wright will have to return to his previous form.
27 comments
mrose
3/16/2012-10:26am at 10:26 am (UTC -4)
With the Phils, I agree about Utley, but even if Utley is completely healthy and is back to the old Utley, if Howard isn’t the same guy..that is a HUGE hurt. I don’t know how many games I saw Howard be a game changer with the bat. Not to mention, he had improved to be a decent fielder in recent years…that may go back to below average now.
Braves, can’t agree more, plus they need to really plan for life without Chipper now and Heyward should have been that answer.
Nats, once again…couldn’t agree more
Marlins – I think Johnson, Hanley and Reyes could be their question marks. Reyes is not a .337 hitter, he is .292 and even that is skewed by last year. I will miss Reyes but to play up to that contract and stay happy w/ Hanley will be difficult.
Mets – Not so much a question mark for them winning, but for their future, they NEED Johan to succeed. I for one, want them to be able to flip him for something, but yes.. Wright is huge too.
Great post
TRS86
3/16/2012-10:34am at 10:34 am (UTC -4)
I agree that Howard is a big bat but to me like I said they just play different when Utley is missing. The confidence and swagger (or just plain playing like a bunch of d$cks) is missing when he is out.
TRS86
3/16/2012-10:43am at 10:43 am (UTC -4)
Just to support:
With Utley 66/37 for a .640 WP
Without Utley 36/23 for a .610 WP
With Utley out completely: .608 WP
Again, very good team without him but much more so with him.
Ceetar
3/16/2012-11:03am at 11:03 am (UTC -4)
Utley, clearly. He’s a better all around player.
For the Braves i think it might be Hudson. Granted they can pitch and not hit as a team, but if they start piling up pitching injuries..
Mets is no question Santana. If he’s healthy, the Mets have an above average rotation, even if he’s only good. If he’s not, especially early, the drop off to Batista/Schwinden has the potential to be pretty bad.
Granted if Wright can’t take the field, that’s a big hit, but even if he doesn’t “bounce back” he’s going to be a plus player on a good offense.
Ceetar
3/16/2012-11:04am at 11:04 am (UTC -4)
going with Johnson for the same reason. The Marlins rotation won’t be anything special without him. The offense won’t be anything approaching good without Hanley, but there’s more of a chance 2011 is a fluke for Hanley than Josh staying healthy
TRS86
3/16/2012-11:08am at 11:08 am (UTC -4)
I thought about Hudson but they have so much youth just hovering around any SP injury and with that bullpen assuming no regression their pitching would still be fine. However, offensively if Heyward is still a black hole they will be forced to trade a SP for offense to even stay in the race.
I understand Johan but honestly do any of us even expect him to do well? To me with the question marks around if Wright is staying or going he is the most important.
Ceetar
3/16/2012-11:19am at 11:19 am (UTC -4)
why not expect him to do well? I mean, he’s standing on the mound now. We really don’t know what’s going to happen. But it creates the biggest swing in value imo.
TRS86
3/16/2012-12:53pm at 12:53 pm (UTC -4)
We have had this debate before. Why not expect him to do well? Because he is a huge injury concern much more so than any of the other pitchers. Do we know he will get injured? Of course not, is there a high likelihood? Sure.
MetsFan4Decades
3/16/2012-11:18am at 11:18 am (UTC -4)
Well, where to begin….
Phillies:
- I believe Howard will be out at least 2 months, if not more – with the latest setback. Whenever he returns, he probably won’t hit the ground running.
- Who knows how many games Utley will play? He’s certainly been an important cog in that lineup but think his best days are behind him.
- Halladay: my winner. I predict the Phillies will have more of a problem scoring runs this year but if Halladay goes down or isn’t the workhorse he’s been, I predict they don’t win the division. I think the swagger on that team revolves around him.
Braves:
- I’ve got my doubts their SP will be fine, but they’ve got some arms near ready to come up. Even with some shaky pitching last year, they almost got into post season. Their key is going to be getting more offense than last year.
- So I’m going with winner = Heyward as well.
Nationals:
- Strasburg is coming back from TJ. I’m sure he’ll be fine but you never know. He’s not proven anything yet.
- Harper is a ‘can’t miss’ type prospect but there is always that chance he doesn’t, especially in year one.
- I don’t think Werth is worth that contract but don’t think he’s the key on that team.
- I’m going with wiinner = BP, as a whole. Strasburg’s innings will be limited, Wang already has a hamstring injury. They have SP but for some of it, they might be relying heavily on that BP for 4 or so innings.
Marlins:
- The key to their success this year seems to be their SP. Think that’s b/c they believe they’ve got their offense all shored up. My opinion, not so fast….
- From what little I’ve seen of Hanley at third in SP, he’s not impressing me. I don’t believe he’ll even be at 3rd come the ASB. I’m not even sure he’ll be with the team come the trade deadline. On top of that, will Reyes’ hamstrings hold up? Will he have another 2011 type season? I totally agree with ‘ticking time bomb of disgruntle team killing poison’ opinion of Hanley. Don’t care what he’s said at his press conference. I’m not the only one not buying it as MLB network’s analysis concurs. His reputation precedes him.
- All that being said, I’m still going with SP and JJ. Marlins have some nice young hitters if Handley doesn’t pan out. They don’t, however have anyone to step in JJs shoes.
Mets:
– Can I say Health, SP, BP, Defense, Health and oh, did I say Health?
– There’s so many things that need to break right for this team to have a decent season. Early on in ST here BP 8th and 9th inning aren’t looking like a lock.
- But sure…Wright is as good as any. Like to see him return to form almost for his own sake as the fans. He deserves some success. Fans have been unfairly pointing their fingers at him for all that ails the NY Mets.
Stick
3/16/2012-12:35pm at 12:35 pm (UTC -4)
Well, Howard did already hit the ground last year trying to run, does that count?
I also see your point about Halladay. Not that he is hurt (so not a question mark per se), but if he pulls up lame on top of Utley hobbling around, the (spoiled brat) fan base will go into full on panic mode. You are right that they all feed off him (and to an extent, the other SPs hide behind him).
MetsFan4Decades
3/16/2012-12:43pm at 12:43 pm (UTC -4)
LOL – Howard.
Watching the Philly fan base go into full panic mode over Halladay would be a nice side benefit to this season for me.
Stick
3/16/2012-12:29pm at 12:29 pm (UTC -4)
I will agree about all the teams except the Marlins. JJ there.
I will add a couple more dark horses though. For the Phils, Dom Brown. they already pretty much have factored in a limited Utley, and missing Howard. But they need production somewhere, and the difference between a breakout year from a young OF and another cratering could be huge for them. Also because they have age/infirmity in their heads, and could use an infusion of youth and enthousiasm.
For the Mets, add Davis in. That was the killer injury last year. if he is back 100% it is a major swing.
MetsFan4Decades
3/16/2012-12:38pm at 12:38 pm (UTC -4)
I didn’t think Dom Brown was even making the starting 25 out of the gate. Interesting…..
TRS86
3/16/2012-12:55pm at 12:55 pm (UTC -4)
Was he not paired with Mayberry Jr in LF?
MetsFan4Decades
3/16/2012-1:09pm at 1:09 pm (UTC -4)
Maybe….thought I remembered reading though he was definitely going to start in the minors. That was before or right at the beginning of ST. They think he needs more work on his defense and his ML showing with the bat was nothing to write home about either.
They could have changed their mind about that though. Don’t really know.
Stickguy
3/16/2012-3:28pm at 3:28 pm (UTC -4)
1B complicates LF for the phils. They seem to want Mayberry to be the regular 1B with Howard out, leaving a void in LF. My piont on Brown is that they are still hping on him, but if he doesn’t give them anything, it is going to hurt. On the flip side, if he breaks out, they will be getting a hug bonus.
MetsFan4Decades
3/16/2012-12:37pm at 12:37 pm (UTC -4)
OT:
The Yankees have signed Andy Pettitte to a minor league contract.
What? LOL……some guys just can’t retire and stay away, can they?
kingman 26
3/16/2012-1:29pm at 1:29 pm (UTC -4)
Not when they can make 7 figures or near to it for 6 months of playing baseball and first class travel!
MetsFan4Decades
3/16/2012-1:58pm at 1:58 pm (UTC -4)
Maybe his wife told him find something to do, you’re driving me crazy being around all the time. LOL.
saltygary
3/16/2012-1:45pm at 1:45 pm (UTC -4)
To me the Maimi Marlins are a ticking time bomb. It’s not a matter of how but when. As TRS stated above, their staff is reliant on a excellent pitcher that hasn’t been healthy. Buehlre was a great pickup, but he is more of a stabilizing force in the middle of the rotation, not a guy to really increase their win count. So if JJ goes down, their pitching will be mediocre at best.
Offense, it looks like Stanton has a bunch of nagging injuries and he is their best offensive piece. If he has a down year followed by a annual Reyes injury, their offense will struggle.
They now have the 3 biggest head cases in the league. Would anyone be shocked if a fist fight broke out between Zambrano, Ozzie or HanRam?
Now add that people can’t even park the new stadium, and locals are also pissed about the tax funding of the new stadium. They place will be a ghost town if the team doesn’t perform well.
So did a 72 win team really add enough pieces to become a playoff contender? My feeling is the fallout is going to be sweet.
MetsFan4Decades
3/16/2012-2:02pm at 2:02 pm (UTC -4)
Oh man, I forgot about Zambrano.
Then there’s the Ozzie factor.
MetsFan4Decades
3/16/2012-4:01pm at 4:01 pm (UTC -4)
That was one poorly played ST game.
Only good thing was Johan. Even with the runs given up – and some of that was a victim of shoddy defense and the BP allowing his inherited runners to score – he seemed to be pleased with it.
Stickguy
3/16/2012-5:13pm at 5:13 pm (UTC -4)
this is why I was really hoping Havens would be healthy and have a big spring. I think they are going to need a better glove at 2B.
MetsFan4Decades
3/16/2012-9:16pm at 9:16 pm (UTC -4)
I think you might be right.
Love Murph – and you can tell he’s been working hard – but he just looks so awkward out there. He’s got what? about a half to a third of a season experience playing 2nd?
Hazmet
3/16/2012-6:33pm at 6:33 pm (UTC -4)
New Over / Under Question: How many games till we get our next Spring Training victory. Jeez, 3 wins with 1 over the Marlins Double A team. I typically don’t put much into ST wins and losses but a 3-9 record is astoundingly pathetic even with the injuries.
Stickguy
3/16/2012-7:57pm at 7:57 pm (UTC -4)
by this weekend. So I take the under on 2.5
MetsFan4Decades
3/16/2012-9:19pm at 9:19 pm (UTC -4)
No Wright, no Tejada, Torres out for a few games, Duda out for a few games, no Hairston……
This along with tons of minor leaguers have the defense looking even worse than predicted. And not a lot of that is showing up in the box scores.
Not that the BP has been all that stellar but some of them – along with Johan today – being victimized by the inability to turn a damn double play, throwing in to the wrong base, missing the cutoff guy and flat out making errors.
Haven’t been paying attention by last I looked the Braves were something like 1-8 or 1-9 to start.