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Mar 18

The Sunday Question

David Wright has yet to see any Spring Training games. If the Mets are going to go anywhere, they not only need David’s glove but his bat as well.

Today’s question: What are your predictions for David Wright this year?
Bonus Question: Do you think he’ll finish out the year as a Met?

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74 comments

  1. darknova306

    I expect a pretty uninspiring year from Wright, both offensively and defensively. He’s going to get it into his head that he needs to show that he can improve his power with the moved in fences, and he’ll press all year and actually do worse. And if this ab strain thing lingers, he could be really awful. His throwing will continue to be an adventure, as I’m sure we all agree on.

    He’ll still be a Met at the end of the year. If he sucks as much as I expect, no one will trade much for him, and if “gets back to form” or whatever, they’ll pick up the 2013 option and then look to trade him in this coming offseason.

    1. Stickguy

      I’m going to take the other angle with the fence moved. I think it will relax him, and let him go back to more of his old approach, figuring that the HRs will come naturally, without having to sell out and try to dead pull everything.

      1. darknova306

        He’s had three years to realize that he’s given up the strength of his game to try to pull more homeruns down the line. He not only used to have HR power to all fields, but he also used to have great gap-to-gap power and a wonderful propensity for taking the outside sliders the other way for basehits. So he gave up the strengths of his game to try to hit a few more HRs in a less forgiving park? He hasn’t come to the understanding that poking an outside pitch down the 1B line for a late inning single is more valuable to the team than a K? Hmmm, maybe he IS mentally weak enough for moved in fences to alter his approach.

        1. Stickguy

          remember 2009 (pre-cain?) He was having a huge year really, and if anything, the new park was helping him.

          But, all you heard about was “oh my god, he isn’t hitting HRs, the team needs power, he sucks, etc.” Pretty much ignoring that he was very productive (and the rest of the team useless!)

          I think that was when he really changed. maybe the beaning played into it?

          Up until 8/31, he was hitting .324 with a .414 OBP and .882 OPS. On pace for 45+ doubles and well over 60 EBHs. After he came back? Pretty much Castillo-esque. I thought then and still do that he came back way too soon, especially on a lost season.

          2010, he at least got the HR ability back, at the cost (it seems) of the rest of his game (at least OBP and situational hitting). Was it being gunshy? Or just getting all hojo’d to try and get the HRs back? We really don’t know.

          1. NYM

            People did rip way too much into him for that 2009 season. But he still wasn’t right that year. The average and the OBP were up, but he was still striking out at a pretty high rate…probably getting lucky to a degree that his BA was so high. He did start to drop the K rate as the season went on and improved in that area prior to getting beaned…but still that wasn’t a typical Wright season. He hit a solid amount of doubles that year, so its not like he was just a singles hitter, but he wasn’t driving the ball with power near the rate he had in prior years/

            But yeah I do think they then went too much overkill in the other direction the following year focusing on the power. I think that’s largely him being a little crazy and pressing too much, and also partially on the team as a whole b/c they did go into 2010 pushing the need to hit more HRs. Which they did need to do…but you don’t want Wright up there hacking for the fences either.

          2. saltygary

            “but you don’t want Wright up there hacking for the fences either.”

            No you don’t. Wright is most effective when he is spraying the ball around.

            and nice synopsis.

        2. MetsFan4Decades

          #BlameHoJo

          1. Stickguy

            and of course Jerry.

          2. kingman 26

            SIGN MANNY!!!

          3. Stickguy

            too late.

            though if you want to go back in time, apparently Nady was available until yesterday. Who knew? But man, did it PO your buddy bayonne (he gets irate any time some stiff signs elsewhere). This latest rant seems to be the Mets could have had him instead of signing hairston for a whopping 1.1mill. Completely ignoring the fact that nady hit worse than he did, and has been reduced to being a 1B at this point (so not viable to be the BU CF). But that is all minor details, not changing the fact that sandy is an incompetent idiot!

          4. kingman 26

            Nady?!?!

            OMG you cannot be serious!

            Nady makes Moises Alou look like Lou Gehrig!

            Bayonne a long time ago championed Mike Jacobs too.

            Bayonne is seriously the most ignorant, obnoxious loser possibly of ALL Met fans.

            Seriously, Alex has a sense of humor. Alex is OK. Bayonne, well, I don’t even like that he lives in the next state south of me.

          5. TLJNYM

            LOL. Yeah, there is pretty stiff competition out there, but I think Bayonne is the champion when it comes to being the worst fan out there. His hatred of Wright, Sandy, and anything statistical (except for BA…sometimes he deems that relevant) knows no bounds.

          6. MetsFan4Decades

            LOL. Just what we need another first baseman.

      2. darknova306

        Let’s also not ignore how his concussion was handled. That’s probably more ground-zero for his decline than anything else. If he’s still afraid of getting plunked, he’ll continue to be a mediocre hitter that gives up the outer part of the plate.

        1. Stickguy

          that is a big wildcard of course. I thought though that (last year?) he had moved back up onto the plate.

          Will be telling though, since while it could be all beaning related, it could also be part of the wholesale approach change to try and pull the crap out of everything.

  2. MetsFan4Decades

    For me it’s all coming down to health for Wright. If he starts the season all healed vs. getting him back where this injury lingers well into the season.

    I’m going out on a limb here. If healthy, I’m thinking he’ll put up numbers more in line with his career norm.
    As far as defense while he doesn’t have the strongest arm out there for a 3rd baseman, I still like his range. Again if healthy, he’ll be fine there.

    I’m taking the over on he’ll play here all season.

    1. saltygary

      I’m with you MF, health will be everything. I feel the atmosphere isn’t this win or fail situation, so he will be more relaxed to play the way he is successful at.

  3. NYM

    Coming into ST having the full offseason to get his back healthy, and having the fences moved in…I was optimistic for a good year from Wright. Not all the way back to his elite levels (I do think the fences had a lot to do with his dropoff…too coincidental not too IMO, but I think with it being 3 years and him screwing with his swing, having other issues just fixing the fences isn’t a magical cure) , but I was thinking somewhere around an .880 OPS or so.

    This current injury has me concerned though. Its still just ST so maybe there is enough time for him to get fully healthy, but I have a concern that this thing is going to linger. If it was a hamstring or a calf or something of that sort I wouldn’t be concerned, but core injuries seem to be among the more problematic for baseball players, and its not good for a guy who’s had some back issues to have ab issues now, b/c abs function to take some strain off the back. So now, what kind of year do I think he’s going to have…I’m still uncertain. I do think he’ll still be better than last year on the account of his back not being broken and the fences being moved in, but I am starting to think my earlier projections were a too optimistic.

    As far as his defense, I think the throwing issues are overstated to a degree. His big issue last year was fielding balls, and his range has slipped somewhat over the past couple years. I am not sure how that is going to bounce back. There was an article in the Post today about Teufel identifying some flaws in how the infielders were setting up and moving towards balls, maybe there is the chance that somehow helps fix some of the problems.

    And I do think he finishes out the year as a Met. If he gets traded I think its more likely to be in the offseason with the way his contract is structured. I could see an in-season trade happening, if the Mets absolutely get blown away with some crazy offer, or on the other end if struggles and financial crisis gets worse, so the Mets decide they might not even pick up his option…and just trade him for whatever they can get (some team out there would probably grab him even if he’s struggling).. But I think an offseason deal is much more likely.

  4. Stickguy

    better than last year. Probably around 2010 output (HRs, RBIs) with a bit of a rebound in OBP and BA. maybe .290/.375/.475 with 25/100?

    And yes, I think he will finish out the year.

    The numbers, of course, assume that the ab thing heals as expected, and he is ready at or close to opening day, and does not end up missing significant time down the road due to it.

  5. kingman 26

    Everyone keeps ignoring the obvious elephant here, which is that Wright has never been close to the same since the beaning.

    Look up his BA/OBP the day Cain hit him, what it was the rest of 2009, and the last two years.

    The fences have zero to do with it.

    Add years of disappointing overall teams, nonstop media negativity, and the nonsense from moron fans who still blame Wright for 2007 and 2008, and this spring’s injury, and you have a pretty sad picture.

    I think Dark probably has it about right—another mediocre year, the Mets basically have to pick up his option, and we have the same discussion next spring.

    I know spring training is spring training, but this team looks—in ALL aspects of the game—absolutely awful.

    1. NYM

      2009 wasn’t all the beaning though. Something was off with him from the start of that year. Yes he was much worse after that happened and finished the year terribly, and I agree his OBP has really dropped since then… but his SLG in 2009 prior to the beaning was .460 which was about 70 points lower than what he did prior years, and he already had 100Ks in mid-August.

      And he was having the big time ups and downs that year…two months with an OPS below .800, one just around .800…thats 3 out of the 5 months before the beaning where he was well below his norms. Wright in the prior years was incredibly consistent…he only had 3 months over the 3 full seasons from 2006-2008 where he even posted an OPS below .850 for a month.

      I still hope that he bounces back somehow things can work out with him here and he ends up staying long term. But chances of that are probably slim.

      1. Stickguy

        given his age and track record at the time, that to me screams of an adjustment period (new park, maybe who was on the roster with all the injuries?) if he really was fluctuating prior to getting plunked.

        1. NYM

          It is possible that maybe 2009 would have just been a fluke year, and that had he not gotten beaned, he would have bounced back to his norms the following year. The beaning did seem to have an effect..afterwards he was flinching on a lot of pitches, standing further off the plate, etc. But still 2009 was still so odd even before that (and I thought him so often swinging through what appeared to be hittable pitches was particularly concerning) its hard for me to ignore that completely and just pin everything that has happened since on the beaning.

          I think its hard to tease everything out. I don’t believe that its just a random early decline with no reason at all for it, I don’t think he just randomly lost in one off season…I do think there are causes involved, but I probably a combination of factors too much tinkering with his swing, mentally being a bit screwed up, pressing too much, the beaning, the back injury, maybe there have been other nagging injuries we don’t know about, etc. I don’t know what all that means in terms of the likelihood of him bouncing back.

      2. kingman 26

        The day he was beaned he was hitting .324 with a .414 OBP, and this was August 15, a big chunk into the season. These basically were his 2007 career highs.

        So, while he was not hitting HRs and was striking out a LOT, he was still hitting for average and getting on base as well as he ever did.

        This plummeted the rest of 2009 and the BA and OBP have continued to drop to levels nowhere near the pre-beaning numbers.

        I am not saying the fences had nothing to do with all of this, but I think the 2010 numbers support the idea of the beaning as THE issue—HR were right back where they should be in 2010, but with much, much lower BA/OBP, and the Ks reached a new high.

        I love Wright, and as I have said many times about Dickey, whose signing I mocked, I will be right here eating crow if Wright returns to pre-beaning numbers, which I pray he does.

        1. NYM

          But if you look into those 2009 numbers further, a lot of people would say he got pretty “lucky” that year. I am not one to pump up the “luck” argument that much (I really hate when people dismiss full seasons as lucky or unlucky), but it generally is very hard to strikeout as much as he was and still maintain such a high average over a long period b/c you need such a high percentage of balls you do hit to fall in.

          And re: 2010. Yes the power bounced back, but I think that was in large part b/c such a focus was put into the HRs and pulling the ball that year..he went into that year trying to pull more, trying to hit more HRs, and I think the end result of that was swinging harder, swinging earlier to try to pull, and as a result there were more HRs, but also more Ks, chasing more pitches. I agree I think the beaning was a factor as well…but just not the only one.

          And I also agree that I don’t think fixing the fences is a magical cure.

          1. kingman 26

            Pretty darn reasonable arguments, and I completely agree with your overall assessment of the “luck” argument.

            Hope you comment a lot more here.

          2. NYM

            Thanks. How to I get cool enough to add a pretty picture next to my name?

          3. kingman 26

            Oh man it has been so long I forget! But it is a general thing not based on this site.

            Ask Mr North Jersey when you see him make a comment—-he works here and he is by far the most adept at all issues like this.

            Or ask TRS or MRose when they post.

          4. trs86

            Wow, we seem to have found another rational poster… LOL. Any interest in become an author? We try to induct all of our readers. (We are just that desperate for authors. :) )

          5. saltygary

            http://en.gravatar.com/

          6. saltygary

            Just set your avatar up there and it will come over here in a few minutes

          7. kingman 26

            Or ask SaltyGary.

            He’s the man.

          8. TLJNYM

            Thanks. Had to make a slight modification to the name, but now I get to be one of the cool kids

          9. saltygary

            Welcome Aboard!

  6. kingman 26

    Oh, but I do think that there is an increasing chance that SHOULD he bounce back to something like .300+/.380/etc., he will be traded if we can get maybe 2 Wheelers for him.

    Which would be the right thing to do.

    I think he probably is every bit as ready for a change as Jose was.

    Wouldn’t you be?

    1. darknova306

      Bingo! If I were him, I’d want a change of scenery pronto! The situation in Flushing is degrading as fast as Greece’s credit rating…

      1. kingman 26

        Maybe faster!

      2. trs86

        Don’t have an issue with trading him but to me his value is at it’s lowest right now and will not be any lower during the next 2 years. Remember the option goes away if traded so they could hang on to him until the trade deadline this year or next off-season or next year’s deadline. Whatever is best for maximizing his value. This to me is a positive of Sandy because I trust he will get the most out of him.

    2. Stickguy

      I don’t have a problem trading him if they can get 2 wheeler types back. At this point, the people that root only for a few players are already lost and/or pissed off, so might as well take advantage of that and complete the carnage!

      And the reason i am OK with it is actually a BB concept. I don’t think they will (or should) sign him long term, because I don’t think (or really doubt) that he is going to be worth it on a big $$ LT deal from what, 31-36/37 (assuming a 5 or 6 year deal). And if you think he is likely to go the way of say Utley, or just that his skills won’t keep up with 3B, take a windfall if offered.

      1. kingman 26

        I agree Stick.

        I have been a huge Wright fan, but I also was a huge John Milner and Tom Seaver and Dave Kingman and Keith Hernandez fan.

        I definitely root for the uniform and the history and want to see a winner again.

        Every time I read one of your dear moron friends at MMO mock Wright, all I can think is that Wright deserves to go to southern California or the Bay Area or Denver or St. Louis or somewhere where he can live nicely and/or have a frigin fan base which appreciates him!

        1. Stickguy

          oh, he is appreciated here by the vast majority. It is just that very vocal minority that gets all the attention (and driven nuts, when most people aren’t joining them on the bash brigade!)

  7. Paul

    I believe Wright will be a Met on the last day of the season, but I’m not expecting a big year from him unless Ike Davis and/or Lucas Duda can deliver a monster season and take pressure off of Wright.

    Wright will have a few more home runs thanks to the shorter fences, but I think his strikeouts will continue to climb as well while we watch him press too much to be “the guy” in the lineup.

    1. Stickguy

      I think you will get your wish, and Ike and Duda will both have big years. So if he needs someone(s) behind him to take pressure off, that should do it.

      the thing though I think they really need is another RH bat that pitchers are afraid of. And bay ain’t it.

      1. saltygary

        I feel that I am rooting more for Duda to succeed so you don’t go into a deep state of depression, over just wanting players on the Mets to do well.

        1. Stickguy

          well, thank you. I think.

  8. Mr North Jersey

    I don’t believe Wright will be traded during this regular season. As far as what type of year Wright will have I want to say if healthy he can rebound from last year and have a good season.

  9. Hazmet

    Wright projections:

    He’ll be on track to hit 25HR, 100 RBI’s, and a .290-295 average as a Met in 2012. However,

    He’ll be traded to the Rockies by the deadline quenching their never ending man crush on David and David will take advantage of the altitude and end up at .310 average, 33 HR, 115 RBIs.

    1. Stickguy

      well, they have some good prospects at least, so if they give back top dollar, then pretty much a win-win.

      At that point, just have to cut bay, and pretty much be at rock bottom starting over!

  10. kingman 26

    Big Pelf:

    8 H, 7 ER, and 4 BB through ALMOST 3.

    Nice.

    1. Stickguy

      he has looked incredibly bad so far. As in, regressed since last year. At this point, I’m not sure he is going to be able to make it 1/2 way through the season without having to be yanked out of the rotation (will he accept the minors solution? If not, I am smelling mop-up duty).

      bad news when you pretty much have one pitch, and you lose velocity on that, and you have nothing passing for control. IOW, no clue and meatballs over the heart of the plate.

      If this was an open competition, I doubt he could beat out schwinden for a spot in the rotation!

      1. darknova306

        Also, the mental ability to unravel at the first sign of trouble. This year is looking more and more ugly by the day.

        1. kingman 26

          I agree 100%. More if possible.

          I also think people are dramatically underrating how absolutely awful the pen is going to be.

          You are replacing KRod and Izzy—two VERY successful closers—with Francisco and Rauch–two aging career mediocrities with minimal closing experience.

          And the rest of the pen guys are mediocre crapshoots at best.

          In all seriousness, I honestly feel that if the rotation is not at least league average or slightly better with Dickey, Niese and Gee all at least repeating what they did 2011 and Johan winning 12+, this team really will be a 90+ loss squad.

          1. MetsFan4Decades

            ‘also think people are dramatically underrating how absolutely awful the pen is going to be.’

            Not me, Kingman. I’m not impressed so far.
            I know SA tried to bring in some new blood to improve the pen but outside of 1 or 2 guys, the only ones putting up consistent numbers in that BP so far in ST are those not expected to make the team. And I’m thinking that’s b/c by the time they’re in the game, they’re facing more competition they’re used to, as opposed to the ML starters.

          2. MetsFan4Decades

            Let me add one caveat: Acoasta is about the only one of the those considered to be a lock that’s pitched fine so far.

          3. Stickguy

            I expect a lot of churn in the pen this year. The veteran guys will get a shot, and if they aren’t cutting it, guys out of the minors will get there shot (anyone that is looking good down there). Edgin, etc.

            I am thinking that is was partly wanting to have something passing for stability 9veteran presence), partly wanting to have guys as potential deadline trade offs, and largely not being sure any of the inexperienced options (from minors or scrap heap) were going to be ready and do enough to deserve jobs right away.

            i know they had lots of holes to fill, and Sandy spent his measly allowance on RPs, but I think that was due to the fact that it is the one area where you can make a big impact for not too much money (and you weren’t getting a difference maker SP on his budget!)

          4. kingman 26

            All true, and I still very much support Sandy, and I understand he absolutely had to do something pen-wise, but 2/12 for Francisco was an awful lot.

            Unless he’s having an amazing year, no one is taking that contract.

          5. NYM

            Yes and no. I think you are underestimating how awful the pen as a whole was last year. They were 28th in the MLB in ERA and 27th in OPS against, 28th in WHIP, etc. Not good.

            They likely will miss K-Rod who was pretty good…so the closer role will drop off a bit. But Izzy was not all that great last yr, and the rest of the pen was so lousy that it will be tough for this years version to be worse.

          6. kingman 26

            Wow, those numbers surprise me. I knew they were not good, but wow.

            But to me, when KRod left, everyone got pushed up a spot in the bullpen food chain and pretty much all really stunk, especially Parnell as closer.

            I guess when I view Francisco and Rauch’s careers, and consider that they and Parnell will probably be closer and 8th inning guys, it seems very, very difficult to imagine them being as good as KRod and Izzy were for the first four months last year.

            I especially see the closer spot as a disaster. Met fans sometimes do not realize it, but we have had a lot of good closers over the years; I think people will be pining for Benitez this year, it could be so bad!

    2. MetsFan4Decades

      Yeah, worst start yet.

      Anytime, Pelfrey…..

    3. NJstuckinTX

      hmmm… my Pelf prediction is playing out perfectly, which is exactly what I did not want to see. :(

  11. Mr North Jersey

    Off Topic: Regarding the Marlins President David Samson remarks a lil over a week ago over comments he made and if they were said or not said and in what context. They did eventually release the video.

    For those curios you can see it here: http://vimeo.com/38189957

    The parts regarding the comments he made about Reyes you can see at the 16:03 mark and the 24:55 mark of the video.

    My understanding was the video was originally released in 21 sections for easier sharing online so you will see at points a fade in and out.

    1. MetsFan4Decades

      Samson sure likes to pat himself on the back, doesn’t he?
      ‘MLB has the worst union’.
      Hey Samson: Maybe you ought to read ‘How To Win Friends and Influence People’. Just saying……

      Reyes denied that quote Samson made about the ‘Gimmie $1 dollar more to sign here’.
      Listening to Samson throw that out, I’m not so sure his agent didn’t say something like that. Also willing to bet Jose probably didn’t know a think about it. Most of these back and forth negotiations are done between the team and the agent.

  12. Hazmet

    So tomorrow the big show starts: Wilpon v Picard. Good article in Newsday today. Tomorrow’s suppose to be sitting the jurors and some deciding what can and cannot be admisable and opening statements. Some excerpts from the article:

    - Expect Saul Katz to be one of the first witnesses called by Picard.
    - Trial expected to last 2 weeks.
    - The Wilpons want to be able to bring in Koufax and former Manhattan DA Robert Morgenthau to contend that if the Wilpons had suspicions of Madoff they would have never provided assurances to friends like this if they had known Madoff was running a Ponzi scheme.
    - Picard wants to keep evidence about the fees his law firm is making off the Madoff case out of the trial.

    The two comments by Judge Rakoff’s impression of both sides I was amused by said:
    1. Picard’s 300 page complaint reads like a Tolstoy novel and almost put him to sleep.
    2. he also said, “too much of what the parties characterized as bombshells proved to be nothing but bombast.”

    And now, Lets get ready to rumbllllleeeee……

    1. Mr North Jersey

      Is it true there will be a media camera in the courtroom?

      1. Hazmet

        Great question, I wish I knew. It’s sure to be a circus. If they don’t have a camera it’ll be great to see the courtroom artists sketches. Give it that old Crime Story Genre comic book print look. When I did Federal Jury Duty in Brooklyn a couple of years ago they have a gallery and they had a show of court room sketches from prior cases. It was actually pretty cool. They had one with Tyson that was really cool looking with the tribal art tat’s on his head. I think Joe Petruccio should do an interpretation of courtroom sketches for each days events. That would be pretty amusing.

        1. Hazmet

          I think they should have Mr. Met take the stand just to see his big baseball head in a sketch on the witness stand with the judge sitting there.

    2. saltygary

      Jeez, Koufax got nailed too…

      1. MetsFan4Decades

        Yes and I believe Stephen King did too.

  13. trs86

    I wonder how much it would cost to bring in Oswalt?

    1. saltygary

      Did you really have to go there?

    2. NJstuckinTX

      Depends… How much would it cost to relocate the entire organization to St. Louis?

    3. Stick

      Well, seems that he is getting awful close to that “involuntary retirement (or at least semi-retirement) phase of his career. Already looks to be far enough behind that he would be an along the way addition.

      so, big question is, does he have actual (low) offers on the table, holding out for better? Or does he really have nothing? And the biggie, how bad does he want to pitch (driving money taken and location).

      so, offer him 8mill, and I bet he could be yours. And if nothing else, now that he would be a Met not a Phil, almost guarantees his back blows out!

      But hell, the upgrade from Pelf to Oswalt (or Schwinden, if Santana can’t make the starting gate) would be huge, and inch the mets way closer to 2nd WC possibility.

      I would do it, just to get a jump start paddle on the fan base. Will sell some more tickets, and if you get lucky and he holds together, if the team is faltering he could be traded off for prospects.

    4. srt

      I think the bigger question is, would Oswalt even come here?
      He’s on record stating he’s going to wait until mid season now. Is that b/c he didn’t get the money or team – or both? he wanted…..

      You could make a case that if he started with the Mets and pitched good, he would likely be traded mid season to a contender. Maybe he’s had enough of that. Maybe he wanted to start and finish with the same team.

      1. MetsFan4Decades

        Every once in a while, my usual name here reverts back to srt….

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