Now that yesterday’s news is yesterday’s news. Time to get back to baseball. Continuing in the Over-Under series today’s look is the Mets starting rotation. These numbers are not really my predictions but more about setting a logical over under.
Johan Santana:
19 starts
114 innings
100 strikeouts
1.33 WHIP
8 wins
8 losses
RA Dickey:
30 starts
195 innings
125 strikeouts
1.23 WHIP
12 wins
8 losses
Jon Niese:
27 starts
160 innings
140 strike outs
1.45 WHIP
12 wins
10 losses
Dillon Gee:
25 starts
150 innings
100 strikeouts
1.40 WHIP
10 wins
10 losses
Mike Pelfrey:
Awful OK, seriously.
30 starts
195 innings
108 strikeouts
1.45 WHIP
10 wins
12 losses
Let the games begin. Remember once the series is over the results will be record and tabulated. There will be a winner!
24 comments
kingman 26
3/20/2012-9:43am at 9:43 am (UTC -4)
I have to say, you have done what is, to me, a truly fine, reasonable, and accurate job on all of these.
Perhaps you DO belong in a sports book on the Las Vegas Strip setting lines!
Johan–this is just too hard. He could go down at any time, but I am going over on the wins and losses–something like 12-11.
Dickey–Exact on wins, over on losses–12-10.
Niese–OK, I am getting sucked in to hoping that Niese steps up. Over on wins, under on losses–14-8.
Gee–I think he pretty much is not good. Under on wins, over on losses–8-14.
Tiny Pelf–Hmmm, so hard to say, but I guess over on both–11-14.
So, 57-53 for the starters?
THAT sounds way too good….but, when you figure in Schwinden going 2-8 in spot starts, and other spot starters and the awful pen going 14–28, we still will manage to go about 73-89.
Ceetar
3/20/2012-9:48am at 9:48 am (UTC -4)
I just know if I guess over/under now I’m going to be off from what i predicted in the individual pitcher threads.
Stick
3/20/2012-10:40am at 10:40 am (UTC -4)
Johan Santana: – UNDER
RA Dickey: – OVER
Jon Niese: – OVER
Dillon Gee: – UNDER
Mike Pelfrey: – Under (sub basement level under)
MetsFan4Decades
3/20/2012-10:54am at 10:54 am (UTC -4)
Johan: sounds about right. Think I predicted 18 starts.
RA Dickey: Like this prediction too. Here’s hoping he actually gets some run support this year to get the wins.
Niese: am hoping he pitches a bit more than 160 innings – as in goes deeper in ball games. We’ll see if his new and improved nose – which is supposed to be helping him breath better – has anything to do with conditioning this year.
Gee: I’d go higher on the games/innings pitched. Baring an injury, I think he’s in the rotation for the entire season.
Pelfrey: Awful. LOL – wish I didn’t agree with this. Your prediction sounds about right. I have no faith, from what I’ve seen so far this ST, he’s going to put it together this year. But he should take the mound every 5th day so there is that.
saltygary
3/20/2012-11:21am at 11:21 am (UTC -4)
I’m fine with what you have for Santana, Neise and Dickey. Gee and Pelf I will take the under. I don’t think they will get the starts or the innings.
Whoever is worse will be either sent packing or to the pen when Harvey is ready. Wouldn’t be surprised to see someone else come up as well whether it’s Familia or Beato for a period or even Meijia.
There is also the trades. Now that there is more certainty, why can’t the Mets (even with a poor record) be buyers at the deadline? Or at least make moves that will change the look of the team.
I don’t believe the will have a bunch of money to spend but I also don’t believe they are going to continue to stand pat with what they have. I can see Sandy becoming more aggressive now. He has demonstrated he can make trades and I forsee him kicking it up a gear.
Stick
3/20/2012-11:48am at 11:48 am (UTC -4)
I would love to see some creative buying, even if it isn’t to make a run this year (asusming they are not in the race at the time), but rather to get some pieces needed for the future (so IOW not rentals, but not just trading vets for low level prospects).
NJstuckinTX
3/20/2012-12:40pm at 12:40 pm (UTC -4)
Johan Santana: – OVER
RA Dickey: – UNDER
Jon Niese: – OVER
Dillon Gee: – UNDER
Mike Pelfrey: – WAY UNDER
darknova306
3/20/2012-1:33pm at 1:33 pm (UTC -4)
Johan – Under. He’ll make 10 starts between all his DL stints. 3-7
Dickey – Over. It’s hard to bet against him until he proves otherwise. 14-10
Niese – Under. I love the kid and think he’ll take a step forward, which is why he’ll fail. It always seems to happen that way for the guys I like. 10-15
Gee – Under. That great run he got off to when he got called up won’t happen again and he’ll be overall worse than last year. 8-12
Pelfrey – HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!! …under. 8-16
Ceetar
3/20/2012-1:47pm at 1:47 pm (UTC -4)
Probably all over.
kingman 26
3/20/2012-3:40pm at 3:40 pm (UTC -4)
LOL!
Surprise of the day.
Stickguy
3/20/2012-4:19pm at 4:19 pm (UTC -4)
knog, you have to appreciate anyone that is consistent and stands by their beliefs like that.
Ceetar
3/20/2012-4:37pm at 4:37 pm (UTC -4)
I can’t help it if all those predictions are pretty pessimistic.
trs86
3/21/2012-8:11am at 8:11 am (UTC -4)
Pessimistic? They are designed as over-unders. They are based on you know, what actually DID happen last year with the exception of Johan of course. Can a player improve? Obviously. Is that something you bet to happen? Only if you like losing money.
kingman 26
3/20/2012-6:24pm at 6:24 pm (UTC -4)
Hmmmm, like the Nazis? Klansmen? The religious right? People who believe the world is 6000 years old? People who believe prayer will cure illnesses?
“A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds…”–Ralph Waldo Emerson
gategem
3/20/2012-9:26pm at 9:26 pm (UTC -4)
Kong we have to rescue you from the dark side. Just take the following advice from an old timer:
“You’ve got to accentuate the positive
Eliminate the negative
Latch on to the affirmative
Don’t mess with Mister In-Between”
kingman 26
3/20/2012-10:38pm at 10:38 pm (UTC -4)
LOL!
My biz sells TWO great arrangements of that song, Ella’s AND Johnny Mercer’s.
GG, you may be THE best commenter here.
trs86
3/21/2012-8:14am at 8:14 am (UTC -4)
Hey I do take issue with the prayer thing. Just as there are studies that show having a pet in a hospital shows gains in terms of healing as well. If it makes them feel better about the situation then so be it. I think there is a lot about the powers of the mind that we just don’t know yet.
kingman 26
3/21/2012-9:30am at 9:30 am (UTC -4)
You are absolutely right and I apologize if that offended you.
I completely agree with what you say, and really what I meant was more in terms of parents who won’t let a child be treated traditionally for some terminal illness due to religious reasons.
But I should not have said it and I apologize.
trs86
3/21/2012-9:46am at 9:46 am (UTC -4)
Eh, I don’t get offended easily you know that. LOL.
I agree though that a stance on refusing medical care because of religion would be a slap in the face of what religion would be about to start with.
Hazmet
3/20/2012-7:48pm at 7:48 pm (UTC -4)
I wonder what Pelf’s record against the NL East will be after this season. Going in he is 24-45 against the NL East.
Not much love for the 13-6 Gee from last year. Not much consideration for him being jerked around and getting Heilman’d the first 2 years of his career being bounced between the pen and as a starter. I don’t expect him to be an ace but I wouldn’t be surprised by a solid #4 type year with double digit wins.
gategem
3/20/2012-9:18pm at 9:18 pm (UTC -4)
I’m concerned that a mediocre to poor starting staff will be further hurt by a mediocre to poor defense. So I don’t believe they will live up to TRS projections. Hence “under” is the byword.
darknova306
3/20/2012-9:34pm at 9:34 pm (UTC -4)
Bingo. Especially for a mediocre staff that pitches to a lot of contact. This season is gonna be ugly.
kingman 26
3/20/2012-10:41pm at 10:41 pm (UTC -4)
I really hope you are not underestimating the bullpen’s potential to make 2008′s pen look like 1986′s.
darknova306
3/21/2012-12:26am at 12:26 am (UTC -4)
Trust me, my faith in this year’s bullpen is as high as my faith in Jason Bay winning the MVP this year…