Despite the near-universal negativity regarding the Mets’ hopes for success in 2012, this writer is very excited for the new season.
In just eight days, it all begins again. Another 6 month marathon where we basically become family with a group of athlete-strangers. Taking them into our homes, hearts, and minds on a nearly daily basis every day for more than half of the year; should we play those mythical “meaningful September games,” hell, maybe even longer!
As many of my wiser colleagues have reminded us, spring stats don’t mean much; this really is usually true.
However, there have indeed been some very positive occurrences in Metland this spring with Lucas Duda and Johan Santana being at the head of the list.
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Duda, unlike many of the players we hope against hope for, actually had a pretty sterling minor league record. Improved at every level; struck out a little less after each promotion and had excellent OBPs everywhere. Nice power with a good amount of HR and lots of doubles. Last year his constantly improving eye at the MLB level was eye-opening and his play this spring has continued to be at a high level; the opposite field HRs-especially off of Strasburg-were very impressive. Were it not for our other hopeful star of the future in Ike and our horrid Minaya albatross in left in Bay, Duda would be where he belongs at either first or in left. The feeling here is that he will supplant the overmatched and over-the-hill Jason Bay in left by opening day 2013 at the latest.
Johan Santana was not the last piece of Omar’s puzzle, but when healthy he has been a fantastic Met. His overall numbers this spring have not been off the charts, but as all of us—including Johan—know, all that mattered this spring was the ability to throw many pitches each outing with his left arm remaining attached to his left shoulder. As this has basically occurred, and he has not competed with Mike Pelfrey for the coveted Oliver Perez Most Awful Pitcher Award, everyone should remain hopeful. Should Johan simply be able to give us 25 starts and pitch to a sub-4.00 ERA, it probably will mean at least an extra 6—8 wins for this club.
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The rest of the team? The rotation—with a healthy Santana—has the potential to actually be the strength of this team. This would count on Dickey at least continuing what he has done the last two years, and Niese and Gee doing no worse than what they have done at the MLB level. Should any or all of these three regress, we could be in for some trouble. But on the other hand, should one or two of them improve significantly along with a healthy Johan, the rotation could possibly be above average, which would be a major victory. The feeling here is that Dickey will indeed continue his fine Met career and that Niese might finally finish a season in a strong fashion, at least in part thanks to his new Proboscis by Beltran. Gee might be a mentally tough youngster, but his arsenal is not a deep one. Pelfrey? What can be said? He has a slight HoJo every-other-year thing going; let’s hope we see more of 2010 in 2012 than 2011.
The offense did indeed finish 6th in the league in runs, on the strength of dramatically improved plate discipline. Excellent team OBP overcame the lack of power to produce those runs. Without Reyes and Beltran, and with Bay and Wright possibly in permanent decline, the team will need major production from Ike and Duda to continue to score at such a nice rate. The feeling here is that Duda and Murph will produce nicely, Bay will continue his mediocrity, Wright will be somewhere closer to 2010 than to 2007-2008, Ike will be something like 2010 but no better, and the rest of the offense (Thole, Tejada, Torres) will produce modestly. Overall, 6th in runs again would be fine but may be difficult to do with the weakness leading off, at the bottom of the order, and wherever Bay hits.
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The bullpen is where the true disaster may once again reside. People often have short memories, and while KRod may have been overpaid and overaggressive, he was indeed a good closer. Francisco and Rauch are career mediocrities. They are not terrible but they are not very good either. Francisco has two partial seasons as closer; Rauch three. Francisco saved 25 of 29 in 2009 and Rauch was 21 for 25 in 2010. Other than that, they’ve never had a season without blowing about 20% or more of their save opportunities. Braden Looper blew just under 20% of his saves as a Met. For their careers, Francisco has blown 30% of all save chances, while Rauch has blown about 32%. KRod has a rate of blowing about 15%; 16% as a Met. Heath Bell blows about 16% of his chances.
There are many reasons why neither Rauch nor Francisco has ever been a full-time closer, and why Rauch is on his fourth team in three years; Francisco his third. Were they 6th or 7th inning guys behind a great closer and a fine setup man, they could be very valuable bullpen pieces. But expecting either of these guys to be able to come into NY and handle the pressure-packed position of closer and all of a sudden vastly increase their career save success rate is beyond being “optimistic.” It’s just plain unrealistic. We saw what happened to the 2011 pen when Parnell tried to close. Unfortunately we may see a very similar horror show in the late innings in 2012; this space sees the bullpen as the true Achilles heel of the 2012 Mets.
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Regardless, better days surely are ahead. Among Wheeler, Harvey, Familia and Mejia there MUST be 1-2 serious MLB arms, right? Sandy must see some Canseco or McGwire in Nimmo, no? After another 1-2 drafts, surely Alderson and his braintrust are going to have us stocked for the future. Right? Now that Fred has Madoff behind him and all of these new investors and with the Dodger sale increasing the Mets’ worth by the minute, payroll surely will rise and without the feckless Minaya here to throw it all at aging DL denizens, contention is certainly around the corner. Isn’t it?
Who knows. Maybe those who have been calling the Phils old and finished for five years will finally be right. Maybe the Braves’ choke was more of a sign of things to come than an anomaly. Maybe the Nats’ youngsters will turn out not be like Davey Johnson’s Met group after all. And maybe Ozzie explodes into expletives earlier than expected if Johnson and Reyes get hurt and Hanley blows another gasket after loafing for a ball down the line. And maybe Duda hits 40 dingers, Murph hits .350 with only 30 errors, Ike is an all-star, Wright recovers, Johan wins 15 while Dickey and Niese do too, and the team somehow wins its most games since 2008.
Of course, 80 wins would accomplish that feat. And truthfully, from this vantage point, 80-81 wins would be an admirable step for this crew to take on the road to recovery from the Minaya Reign of Error as they boldly navigate a future which will hopefully be much brighter than the recent past.
37 comments
gategem
3/28/2012-7:36pm at 7:36 pm (UTC -4)
I always look forward to each new season especially when there is an ever diminishing number of them in my future. I don’t see where the Mets have dramatically improved via off season pickups but that is fine as improvement must come from within and this is essentially a rebuilding year. But rest assured that because of the balance of the four teams above Wilpon’s Mets there will definitely be meaningful baseball in September. Wilpon’s Mets could very well impact the division standings even if they observe it from the bottom. But as Lee Hazelwood wrote in his song I’VE BEEN DOWN SO LONG (IT LOOKS LIKE UP TO ME) “But down here on the bottom I get rest.”
saltygary
3/28/2012-7:49pm at 7:49 pm (UTC -4)
You had to bring up Looper. I was all like “friggen awesome a Kong post” and then you said the L word. Other than that huge issue, great to see a piece from you my friend.
For me the strength of the bullpen is dependent on the innings that the rotation can amass. By July I feel the pen will be burnt out. I am not happy with the guys that were brought on for the rotation, but I feel it was the correct area to focus and based on not wanting to sign guys past two years, it was the best they an get. There is enough depth but if Santana needs time off and Pelf Poof’s, then they will be used way more than anyone wants.
The offense will be fun to watch. Lot’s of questions but how can you not get excited to see what this new blood can do. Unless they lay an egg anyways.
kingman 26
3/28/2012-7:55pm at 7:55 pm (UTC -4)
Thanks man, and it is great to count you as a colleague.
And I WAS using Looper as a BAD example of mediocrity!
saltygary
3/28/2012-8:16pm at 8:16 pm (UTC -4)
The angst that my wife and I have for him is off the chats. Mention his name and she will throw a plate. I think it really comes down to his mediocrity and as horrible as it sounds, his face. When he was breathing hard he always looked like he was smiling and it drove us nuts.
The cherry on top was on 09/07/05 the game happened to be on in the hospital while my wife started contractions with our first kid and Looper blew 2 save chances in one game which essentially put a end to the season with the Braves. I would rather say the word Voldimort.
gategem
3/28/2012-9:57pm at 9:57 pm (UTC -4)
After Looper left the Mets wasn’t it revealed that he pitched with some sort of injury?
TRS86
3/28/2012-10:52pm at 10:52 pm (UTC -4)
I remember that, tight ass syndrome or something… LOL yes he was injured for sure though.
Ceetar
3/29/2012-9:13am at 9:13 am (UTC -4)
I’m not sure if I miss the days when we didn’t hear about every bump and bruise, then again, maybe they should’ve been treating guys like Looper and Zambrano earlier and fixing them.
Stickguy
3/28/2012-8:02pm at 8:02 pm (UTC -4)
what was this, the reader’s digest big print edition post?
I keed, I keed.
anyway, a fair balanced post. And as always, you never know what is going to happen over the course of a season. Especially when injuries hit (hopefully to the right teams this year).
For the Mets, if Johan really can pitch, I am cautiously optimistic about the rotation. Gee is looking good, and Neise and the new nose could take that next giant step forward. Poof in the 5 hole (sounds like a porno click doesn’t it?) just has to not suck too bad.
and the offense will be different. More big inning, long ball based, but overall, they should be fine scoring runs.
the pen? I expect a lot of flux, and a few different closers. I really think the guys signed were stop gaps, to give the younger live arms a chance to develop, but I really feel that later in the year you could see Edgin, some live arm RHP out of the minors, and maybe even parnell in big roles. This could be the transition year to a young, power, cheap BP (think Braves here_
But, if nothing else, there is going to be a lot of adjustments along the way.
gategem
3/28/2012-10:00pm at 10:00 pm (UTC -4)
I’ve never seen a fan so preoccupied with injuries. Are you an Orthopedic Surgeon?
Stickguy
3/28/2012-10:11pm at 10:11 pm (UTC -4)
conditioned reflex at this point.
MetsFan4Decades
3/28/2012-8:32pm at 8:32 pm (UTC -4)
Great piece. You summed it up nice with realism.
As Sandy said today…..there are question marks for sure. Where we finish all depends on what side the question marks settle. The more on the plus side, the better the record.
I’m ready for the season to start. LGM!
darknova306
3/28/2012-8:50pm at 8:50 pm (UTC -4)
Interesting post. I agree with a lot of it, but I’m not ready to expect the rotation to be a strength. Gee and Poof are back end guys, Niese (as much as I love the kid) really needs to show some some improvement, and the first bit shoulder tightness is going to burn the bridge of expectation people seem to have now for Santana. And until Dickey falls of the cliff, I can’t bet against him. I still think Dickey will have the best season of the initial 5-man rotation.
We’ll see. I don’t need the expectation of contention to get excited for the season. September will be fun because playing spoiler to the Braves will be awesome.
wanny
3/28/2012-10:43pm at 10:43 pm (UTC -4)
excellent, as always, “knog.”
i will define success this season, not in terms of wins or losses, but progress from the Mets of the future, i.e. duda, ike, murphy, tejada and niese, as well as the minor leaguers. there is something to like about all of these kids. though none of them figure to be stars (duda has a shot, i suppose, because chicks dig the long ball) they all bring something to the table to complement stars that can be made or created when sun comes up tomorrow.
i still consider wright a met of the future but we hardly need to see progress from him as a player. i think we just need to see health.
TRS86
3/28/2012-10:54pm at 10:54 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed although I think that Davis and Duda both have POTENTIAL to be stars. Obviously that doesn’t have to be the case. I keep hoping that Ike’s numbers last year were legit but he’s got to show he can consistently hit LHP.
MetsFan4Decades
3/29/2012-7:01am at 7:01 am (UTC -4)
Ike isn’t looking too good at the plate this spring. I think he’s got a couple of HRs but hitting at the mendoza line right about now.
Hopefully that changes once the season starts.
Sandy’s interview on the Francesa show yesterday was interesting. Honestly about the team without revealing his hand, of course. They talked about finances, the team as a whole and just about everyone on the team other than Wright.
Sandy said even though he realizes it’s just ST, he’s not happy with the record right now. He is conceding though they did have some health issues and never really had everyone ready to go at the same time.
He’s high on Niese and Dickey. Sees them with the organization for years to come.
He said more than once that they realize they sacrificed some defense for offense this year. Goes without saying that they’re hoping the offense numbers more than make up for the defense shortfalls.
darknova306
3/29/2012-7:11am at 7:11 am (UTC -4)
Meh. As long as Ike gets his struggles out of the way in ST, I’ll be happy. This lousy team can’t afford a slow start.
darknova306
3/29/2012-7:15am at 7:15 am (UTC -4)
That being said, I agree with TRS that the biggest area of concern with Ike is his hitting vs lefties. Struggling in ST isn’t that concerning when you’re coming back after not having seen live pitching in 9 months.
MetsFan4Decades
3/29/2012-7:51am at 7:51 am (UTC -4)
Agree, especially with that last sentence.
Hoping once he gets in games consistently when the season starts – and plays all 9 innings – he’ll get his timing down.
NJstuckinTX
3/29/2012-8:54am at 8:54 am (UTC -4)
And the world is right again. A Kong post and the promise of a new season. Good post, as usual. I still see a less than 80 win team, but more for the fact that the team will have parts shipped off at the deadline and decline down the stretch, much like last year.
For the pen… How do I put this? There was/is no need to go top notch on talent for the closer when you aren’t expected to be winning. Does that make sense? No sense in paying for a K-Rod when the SP is shaky and the team is in transition. Those resources could be used elsewhere. So, the economical signings of Rauch and Franky F should parlay into 2 guys who will more likely than not see themselves in different uniforms (as 8th inning insurance pickups for teams in the hunt) at the deadline. The flexibility of the pen is see as a strength, not as a liability.
Now, for the SP… there is the scary part. I’m loving what I see from Santana, but I can not consider him a rock at this point. He’s one twist or awkward throw or something stupid like that for his arm to detach from the shoulder socket. (Side note: He’ll probably end up being the only guy not to hit the DL this year. Go figure…). I do expect to see Niese grow. I hope the same for Gee, but not sure how far his ability can keep pace with his mental toughness. Dickey will be as Dickey is, but I’m not expecting some CY season from him. I can’t, not from a Knuckleballer. Then you come to the biggest black hole this side of the milky way in the Poof-ster. Harvey, mature quickly is all I can say…
A paragraph for Bay is too much and too little, all at once. May Alderson’s magic be worked and a GM be duped into taking Bay. If someone can take on GMJ, then someone taking Bay is possible, right? Omar is in San Diego now, correct?And the world is right again. A Kong post and the promise of a new season. Good post, as usual. I still see a less than 80 win team, but more for the fact that the team will have parts shipped off at the deadline and decline down the stretch, much like last year.
For the pen, there is
Stick
3/29/2012-9:45am at 9:45 am (UTC -4)
philosophical mood today I see.
for the pen, I still think the older guys they signed were intended to be a stop-gap until they could work in a couple of young power arms out of the minors (say Edgin and a RH whose name escapes me). Even possibly Parnell if the lightbulb finally went on. But overall, hopefully it wil be servicable, though expect a lot of moving parts.
I also don’t expect to see a gutting of the team at the deadline. If they are way out of it, could move some guys like FF or rauch, but that would be spare parts not intended to be around for the future. Unless they find a sucker to take Bay, but again, that does not qualify as “gutting”
SP I am cautiously optimistic. If Santana can last most of the year (say 20 starts, with a few rest periods mixed in), the front 4 i can live with. Dickey is good, Neise I honestly think is going to have a break out year, and Gee looks like he has improved (and has a year under his belt to learn from). Put them in the solid but unspectacular overall catagory. Pelf, God only knows about him, and God ain’t talking.
NJstuckinTX
3/29/2012-9:53am at 9:53 am (UTC -4)
I wouldn’t call it gutting either, but moving Rauch, FF, possibly Bay, the good Lord willing. Even Murphy getting traded could possibly happen, but I wouldn’t call that gutting. If Parnell grows a set or Mejia really progresses from injury, there certainly could be inhouse candidates to take FF/Rauch’s spot.
To get all sorts of crazy, it’s possible that even Santana could be moved, if he’s pitching like a champ.
MetsFan4Decades
3/29/2012-9:55am at 9:55 am (UTC -4)
SA said in his WFAN interview yesterday they weren’t in the ‘demolition’ mode. Doesn’t mean they might not be sellers at the trade deadline but they’re not trading away all with a value.
If we’re not in the race, I can see trading away spare parts – especially some BP pieces, if the return is worth it. I believe what SA was trying to say though was not going to move Santana, Wright, Davis, etc. just for the sack of further slashing payroll.
MetsFan4Decades
3/29/2012-9:56am at 9:56 am (UTC -4)
‘sack’….not there’s a slip. lol. Meant ‘sake’.
NJstuckinTX
3/29/2012-10:04am at 10:04 am (UTC -4)
Paging Freud… haha.. Kidding, Kidding…
Ceetar
3/29/2012-10:18am at 10:18 am (UTC -4)
Also, he’s not playing the MLB FA market like it’s a stock market. He didn’t buy Rauch or Frank Frank solely for the opportunity to move them in July, he grabbed them to help the team.
NJstuckinTX
3/29/2012-10:58am at 10:58 am (UTC -4)
As short term solutions.
Ceetar
3/29/2012-11:02am at 11:02 am (UTC -4)
meaning 1-2 years, not 3 months.
NJstuckinTX
3/29/2012-11:14am at 11:14 am (UTC -4)
Which will certainly allow them to be expendable at the trade deadline. They certainly can stay with the team, the team make a run for the playoffs, etc. etc. That said, my personal opinion is that they will be moved as a team actually in the playoff hunt will overpay for them. Maybe that wasn’t Alderson’s only motive in signing them, but I’m certain he wanted that flexibility to do whatever he needed to down the line with them. Hence, I feel they will be moved.
Ceetar
3/29/2012-11:27am at 11:27 am (UTC -4)
That’s what the key word is. flexibility.
He wasn’t doing one or the other. He was looking for guys that help the team without limiting long term options. He didn’t build the 2012 roster with the purpose of creating trade value guys to try to fill the farm system mid-season with other teams guys.
NJstuckinTX
3/29/2012-11:37am at 11:37 am (UTC -4)
Are we arguing the same point, just using different words?
Ceetar
3/29/2012-11:48am at 11:48 am (UTC -4)
Yes.
I’m just saying Sandy’s not treating this year as a rebuilding year.
gategem
3/29/2012-3:17pm at 3:17 pm (UTC -4)
Even if all the optimistic and rationalized outlooks come to fruition and the Mets are spared serious injury the club may still be hard pressed to match last seasons record. The division the Mets play in is extremely difficult and we can’t rely on (as some fans) the teams above the Mets incurring the wrath of the baseball gods and being decimated by the injury curse. But that doesn’t mean you can’t enjoy the season. There will be many areas of the franchise that will be worth enjoyable discussions as the season unfolds. Just stay away from MMO.
Stick
3/29/2012-3:21pm at 3:21 pm (UTC -4)
If the mets stay healthy (and at this point, I probably wouldn’t recognize it if it happened!), and guys play up to their standards (Wright, bay) and the young guys on the verge take the next step (Ike, duda, neise), they can easily be a .500+ team even in this division.
saltygary
3/29/2012-5:46pm at 5:46 pm (UTC -4)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C6cxNR9ML8k
Stickguy
3/29/2012-6:47pm at 6:47 pm (UTC -4)
I couldn’t help myself. I think he had a psychotic break today.
I would seriously consider professional help if I was him.
Saltygary
3/29/2012-7:46pm at 7:46 pm (UTC -4)
The quote was so perfect, I was in tears at work. He went completely bizonkers, there was no need for that.
gategem
3/29/2012-7:40pm at 7:40 pm (UTC -4)
Ceetar, is that you?