Friends, readers, strangers trolling the Internet for baseball themed porn who accidentally stumbled on this site, it is time to discuss the state of the Mets minor league system in Year Two of the Alderson administration. Baseball America ranks the Mets’ system as 25th in the game, down from 20th last year. While this may seem as a regression, the book on the Mets system for years has been an overall lack of depth coupled with the presence of a few blue chippers than can blossom into game changers at the major league level. This is still the case, and personally I think things are looking up from a year ago. Let’s see how this shakes out.
Strengths
As befits a club with the pitching rich history of the Mets, their strength lies in power arms. BA lists Matt Harvey as the #54 overall prospect in the game and Zack Wheeler (acquired for Carlos Beltran from the Giants) as # 35. Both of them project as a top of the rotation starters, if not capital “A” aces. Wheeler, the Mets top prospect, had an ERA of an even 2.00 after coming over to the Mets (pitching at St. Lucie) while switching back to his old mechanics from high school, allowing him to improve his K/BB rate to 31/5 in 27 innings at High A . Harvey had an astounding pro debut, posting a 3.32 ERA and K/BB ratio of 64/23 in 136 IP in his rookie season. True, that walk rate predictably bumped up a bit after an in season promotion to AA Binghamton, but the fact is that the Mets have two of the more promising arms in the game, and both will be in the high minors this season (Wheeler will begin at Binghamton, while Harvey will go to AAA Buffalo).
Jeurys Familia will join Harvey on the Bisons, but he is more of a question mark. While he boasts a 99 MPH fastball, he has had trouble developing his secondary pitches – especially the changeup. He will remain in the rotation for now, but do not be surprised to see a shift to the bullpen at some point. With a plus heater and a breaking ball, he could easily be the Mets closer of the future. Speaking of future and bullpen, Jenry Mejia (remember him?) will return to the mound this summer after recovering from Tommy John surgery. The Mets still have yet to learn what they have in the young Dominican. Mejia did not begin pitching until he was 15, and has never really learned how to corral and refine the raw power of his arm. TJ does not help, and where he will report to when he returns is still up in the air. Consensus is he is definitely a major league pitcher (he already has some MLB experience under his belt), but the important thing for him this season is 1) fully heal and 2) see if he has the secondary pitches and stamina to stay as a starter. If not, he will also head to the pen.
Not to go all Generation K on you here, but the Mets have four highly esteemed power arms and three of them (I’m assuming Mejia will be handled cautiously) will be in the high minors this season, meaning help is on the way. The bad news is that the Mets will unlikely being any of them to Queens this year – better to delay the arbitration clock on them and not waste MLB service time on a team that won’t compete (sorry).
Weaknesses
In a word: offense. The Mets do not have a player in the high minors that figures to be an impact bat. Sure, there is some attrition in the last few years as there are more homegrown youngsters on the big league Opening Day roster, but other than Ike Davis, no one who has come through the Mets system since Wright and Reyes has figured to be more than a good complimentary piece on a contending team (yes, that includes Lucas Duda). Last year’s first round pick, OF Brandon Nimmo is in the fold but he will start the year in extended Spring Training and eventually land at Low-A Savannah. He is not on the fast track and will definitely need a few years before he can be expected to contribute. Cesar Puello, who overcame a sluggish first half to hit .294/.33/.474 in the second half at St Lucie last year, is the Mets top position prospect after Nimmo. He’ll be 21 and should get his first taste of AA, but this potential top of the order outfielder probably has some polishing to do in terms of handling breaking balls and getting off to better starts. When he is on his game, he is a legitimate five tool threat. OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis and the oft injured 2B Reese Havens profile as a nice fourth outfielder and an offensive minded infielder, respectively. If, or when, the deadline deals come, look for the Mets to be sellers and while you can never have enough pitching, they would be wise to add an everyday impact bat if they can find one
What’s Next
So where do we go from here? The arms look ready to contribute within the next two years, and the bats need a boost. The main question Sandy & Co. should be asking is who is going to be an above average contributor when this team is ready to contend again – let’s say, in three years. If they choose to swallow hard and trade David Wright, that wait time may be trimmed to two years. The other way to speed up the process is through the draft. Last year, Sandy broke with Mets tradition of sticking to MLB’s unenforced slot recommendations for draft signing bonuses. As a result, the Mets’ talent haul was significantly better than in years past, starting with Nimmo and extending to SS Phillip Evans (11th round) and OF Bradley Marquez (16th round). And not a moment too soon. For years, smart teams figured out that if you ignore MLB’s’ slot recs and spend, for example, another $5MM in the draft, you could land better talent and turn your team around better than if you spent that money on a so-so major leaguer.
To commemorate the occasion, MLB changed the rules. The new CBA now effectively limits how much each team can spend in the draft, with stiff financial penalties for those that exceed those limitations. Sooooo, the Mets window to flex their financial might (such as it is right now) is closed. The good news is that they still have one of the smarter front offices around, four of the first 75 picks, and at least one major trading chip come July. When and if Wright goes, it should be the last bitter pill for fans to swallow for a while – unless Fred and Jeff have something else up their sleeve; and really with this crowd, who the hell knows.. In the meantime sit tight. The talent is not overflowing, but it is there, there should be more coming, and it should be arriving on a diamond near you sooner rather than later.
35 comments
MetsFan4Decades
4/3/2012-8:51am at 8:51 am (UTC -4)
Depending on the site, I’ve seen the Mets farm system rated anywhere from #16 through 25. Just goes to show you how varied projections can be.
Saw an ‘unnamed scout’ yesterday compare that Lagares kid to Manny Ramirez. Really? This has to be just one scouts opinion. I’ve barely heard anything about this young kid yet.
Generation K……here’s hoping we do not have a repeat of that with these 4 young arms in our system.
Ceetar
4/3/2012-9:23am at 9:23 am (UTC -4)
Toby Hyde (Mets minor league blog) really likes Lagares.
Stick
4/3/2012-9:48am at 9:48 am (UTC -4)
he could be a serous break out candidate this year at AA. Probably the best bet for a guy to take the Wright-Davis express shuttle from Bingo (if you had to pick one).
MetsFan4Decades
4/3/2012-10:17am at 10:17 am (UTC -4)
Good to know. I read Toby’s projections and must have missed this one on Lagares.
Hazmet
4/3/2012-10:14pm at 10:14 pm (UTC -4)
He played a couple of innings in a televised ST game this year and his body type is impressive. Kid looks like he could be a player. Signed in 2006 by Omar.
You know like other Omar busts Ike, Niese,Gee, Murphy, Duda, Niewhaus, Tejada, etc etc
I know sacrilege to actually give Omar credit for some of these players that may actually turn out to be players. Wouldn’t it be ironic that this group with Familia, Harvey, Mejia coming may lead the franchise back and they were all Omar picks..
MetsFan4Decades
4/4/2012-7:32am at 7:32 am (UTC -4)
I was never in the camp of “Omar was the worst GM ever’.
Some of his draft picks and international signings obviously had some very good upside. Some did not. Some years drafts were awful – as were his FA signings and some of his trades.
I like his plan when he got here but I was definitely one of those chanting ‘Omar must go’ by Aug of ’10′. Last straw for me was the Bernazard debacle. By then we were certainly the laughingstock of MLB and with Omar at the helm, that just wasn’t going to be turned around anytime soon. It was more than time for a change.
NJstuckinTX
4/4/2012-8:51am at 8:51 am (UTC -4)
No, Omar certainly wasn’t the worst ever. But think if he hadn’t gone all in at the major league level and didn’t throw away all those 1st round picks, this team (barring the Madoff nonsense) could have been sitting pretty.
TRS86
4/4/2012-8:59am at 8:59 am (UTC -4)
Agreed, I have said all along that 2006 was his worst enemy.
Bryan
4/3/2012-10:04am at 10:04 am (UTC -4)
I saw that comparison too, but I didn’t really understand it, because Lagares will have to do plenty of juicing to match Manny’s power. That being said I really like him, especially if he proves himself capable of playing centerfield, cause he’s a great athlete and he hit the snot out of the ball last year.
Stick
4/3/2012-10:12am at 10:12 am (UTC -4)
assuming the Mets aren’t seriously hanging around the WC race all year, I would have no problem seeing a transition after the trading deadline with a couple of the young guys (Lagares, Kirk) coming up to be in an OF rotation with Duda and Torres.
Duda would be an every day starter (ideally finally moved to LF!), with Kirk, lagares and Torres sharing the other corner and CF, and occasionally as a defensive replacement for Duda (to give the big guy a little break, since he will be tired after clubbing 2 homers earlier in the game).
Notice I wished Bay into the cornfield. If for some reason he is still around, he can be the 5th OF in this scenario.
Since there is no way I expect Bay or Torres back in 2013, there are going to be 2 OF spots open to fill, so get the auditions going early.
oleosmirf
4/3/2012-10:24am at 10:24 am (UTC -4)
i would trade them regardless of where we are in the WC race b/c the playoffs just aren’t happening.
I see us like the Pirates of last year. Hanging in until the deadline and just fall apart thereafter…
Stick
4/3/2012-10:50am at 10:50 am (UTC -4)
I would go the opposite way. more likely to look out of it early, but come on strong at the end (entirely dependant of course on who stays healthy, and how the young call ups do.)
But the only guy I was looking at dumping was bay, and I would unload him today, in the middle of a pennant race, or next Christmas.
oleosmirf
4/3/2012-10:29am at 10:29 am (UTC -4)
Manny Ramirez as in Man Ram?
Whoever compares Lagares to Manny is a buffoon who should lose all credibility. I really hope that person isn’t paid to give such ridiculous opinions.
Might as well pay me to say Josh Thole is the next Johnny Bench!
Stick
4/3/2012-10:53am at 10:53 am (UTC -4)
well, those comparisons are always kind of a “squint real hard” deal. Not that he is going to put up the same type of career, just that in certain ways (build, style, swing, etc.) he reminds you of a young version of that guy.
Might say the same thing about gorski and Glavine say.
Simply guys that somehow remind you of (or maybe could grow into being) the other guy.
though speaking of Gorski, i really liked what he did last year, and if he stays dominant in Bingo, you could be seeing him sooner than you think, and he may be staying around for a while.
Stick
4/3/2012-8:59am at 8:59 am (UTC -4)
Duda is a beast. His bat has more upside than Davis’ at this point.
gategem
4/3/2012-8:17pm at 8:17 pm (UTC -4)
Although Davis is the much more complete player.
Hazmet
4/3/2012-9:36pm at 9:36 pm (UTC -4)
Really? Calm down now, I’ll gladly take what Duda will bring but he is older than Ike by 13 months and by age 23 Ike had 19 HR’s in his first almost full year in the bigs while Lucas is still sitting at 14 HR’s spread across 2 partial years and is a year older. Saying his bat has more upside than Ike is stretching it considering Ike is just getting started too.
I know you might go to 14 HR’s in 385 AB’s vs. 19 in 523 AB’s. But then again think about the 1st month Ike wasted that year hitting dingers while Jacobs played first. Very much the same as Duda’s HR’s in MILB last year too being wasted. Saying one’s ahead of the other at this point considering Lucas is a year older is a bit over zealous.
I’ll be very glad to see both suceed but I don’t see any overwhelming evidence to think Duda’s bat’s ahead of Ike.
NJstuckinTX
4/3/2012-9:16am at 9:16 am (UTC -4)
If the minors need to be slanted one way or the other, I prefer that there be better arms than bats. It was always easier to find a bat in the FA market at a reasonable price vs. a quality arm.
So, long term, the rotation looks solid and they need to get a bat or 2 to finalize the team… I’ve seen that recipe work before.
Stick
4/3/2012-9:45am at 9:45 am (UTC -4)
plus, you can always trade young pitching at a premium.
so say you can’t develop your own catcher, if you have a few extra harvey’s lying around, you can trade for someone elses!
oleosmirf
4/3/2012-9:20am at 9:20 am (UTC -4)
the Mets put together two very good drafts in 2010 and 2011. Unfortunately the 2009 draft was awful which is why we dont really have any MLB ready prospects…
Stick
4/3/2012-9:46am at 9:46 am (UTC -4)
compounded by signing bay (at the cost of more draft choices).
actually, wasn’t that the draft where they gave away the picks that Boston snagged for Wagner?
NJstuckinTX
4/3/2012-9:59am at 9:59 am (UTC -4)
That move drove me nuts. Were they really worried that if they offered arb that that he would accept.
It did net the team the ANIMAL, though. sigh…
TRS86
4/3/2012-10:39am at 10:39 am (UTC -4)
Yes they were very worried. Look at Franky this year, you think the Brewers would offer Krod arbitration again if they had the chance?
NJstuckinTX
4/3/2012-10:49am at 10:49 am (UTC -4)
Still, he wouldn’t have accepted Arb. He wanted 300 saves and Krod wasn’t going to allow him to do that. He’d have opted out, much like he did in Boston.
Stick
4/3/2012-10:55am at 10:55 am (UTC -4)
I see the point real, but I think there were enough differences in the situation that the odds of Wagner accepting were almost nil. And he would have guaranteed it if needed (is that even legal? though you know it happens).
it was 99% IMO about not wanting to pay the picks and to save the couple mill up front on salary, and 1% worried about him accepting arb.
TRS86
4/3/2012-10:56am at 10:56 am (UTC -4)
They just did not know that. What if he had gotten injured in September? What if there was no market? You think if he had accepted arbitration the Mets wouldn’t have either given him save opportunities or traded him?
Stick
4/3/2012-10:59am at 10:59 am (UTC -4)
if he got injured before year end they don’t offer arb and everyone moves on.
worst case is he accepted, right? Then they either trade him as a closer on a 1 year deal, or had a 2 headed monster reminiscent of Myers/mcdowell! Not that he would have been happy as a set up man, but that goes right back to why he would not accept.
keep in mind that KRod was looking for another jackpot, LT deal, and expects to be around a while. Wagner was pretty much ready to retire, but just couldn’t quite let go yet, and wanted that magic number.
so KRod accepted to have something to do until next off season (focusing on money), and I just didn’t see Wags taking the offer to be a set up guy.
NJstuckinTX
4/3/2012-11:04am at 11:04 am (UTC -4)
Risk vs. Reward I guess. To me, a very shortsighted move, for sure.
oleosmirf
4/3/2012-11:13am at 11:13 am (UTC -4)
one thing is for certain, Sandy doesn’t trade him for Chris Carter…
TRS86
4/3/2012-11:22am at 11:22 am (UTC -4)
It might not have been Chris Carter but it’s not like he got back a ton for Krod either. Salary dumps don’t produce key prospects usually.
TRS86
4/3/2012-11:38am at 11:38 am (UTC -4)
I see some of you found my Holy Grail Mood Indicator widget…. LOL. I thought it would be a nice spin on the normal “Confidence in the Mets” Poll. Confidence in what? Moving in the right direction poll? What direction? When? This one is just what those are, a day by day mood indicator with a funny spin. I will try to change the responses now and then with other famous lines from the movie.
MetsFan4Decades
4/3/2012-11:49am at 11:49 am (UTC -4)
Nice. I hadn’t noticed it but just voted.
Hey, it’s almost opening day so what’s not to be happy about? Team is healthy and right now we’re even with the rest of the league until we start playing games.
Prismo
4/3/2012-12:51pm at 12:51 pm (UTC -4)
The Mets don’t have a very deep prospect pool, but we definitely have a few top-tier guys who rank highly on anyone’s list. So basically it’s make-or-break with those guys – if some don’t pan out, there isn’t much left for us…
SpencerRealDirtyMets
4/4/2012-10:24am at 10:24 am (UTC -4)
With all these great pitching prospects, theres no way they all don’t make it!!! right??? I’ll see myself out..
trs86
4/4/2012-10:49am at 10:49 am (UTC -4)
LOL, OK you have to change your name too. How about SpencerRDM?
You guys stop breaking the new theme.