I will clarify everything I am writing here with this statement: “Jason Bay has been a very poor player during his career with the Mets and has not come anywhere close to living up to his exorbitant contract”.
Let me set the scene: The Mets were coming off a very poor season going 70-92 and finishing fourth in the division. Jason Bay was coming off one his of the best seasons of his career after being traded to Boston. Seemed like a great fit, what could go wrong?
The top available players that would have made sense for the Mets for the 2010 season and beyond were Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, Chone Figgins, John Lackey, Joel Pineiro and Rich Harden. I omitted a couple closers (Jose Valverde, Rafael Soriano) and Adrian Beltre because their positions were already filled.
Pitchers: (Stats from 2010 and 2011 seasons)
Joel Pineiro 2 years/ 16 Million (LA Angles)
He posted a 17-14 record, 4.47 ERA, 1.372 WHIP, averaged 149 innings a years over the two years and had a combined WAR of 1.5.
John Lackey 5 years/ 82.5 Million (Boston)
He has posted 26-23 record, 5.26 ERA, 1.504 WHIP, averaged 187 innings a year over the first two years of the contract and posted a War of 0.6.
Rich Harden: 1 Year/ 6.5 Million (Texas)
Only stats necessary are 92 innings pitched and a WAR of -0.3
Hitters: (Stats from 2010 and 2011 seasons)
Chone Figgins: 4 years/ 36 Million (Seattle)
.236 AVG, .309 OBP, .595 OPS, 53 SB and over the previous two years he posted a 0.6 WAR
Matt Holliday: 7 Years/ 120 Million (St. Louis)
.305 AVG, .389 OBP, .917 OPS, 50 HR and had a WAR value of 9.3
Jason Bay: 4 Years/ 66 Million (NY Mets)
.251 AVG, .337 OBP, .723 OPS, 18 HR and a WAR of 2.0
Looking at this data the Market was pretty bleak. The only good signing would have been Holliday, but even he has injury issues and has a contract that will take him well into his thirties. As crazy as it is to say, the Mets could have done much worse than Jason Bay. If the Mets hadn’t signed Bay, I’m fairly confident they would have invested their money in another one or even two of the above free agents, which would have not turned out well.
Watching Jason Bay play baseball has been very painful over the past two seasons, but watching some of these others players may have been even worse. Figgins who I would have liked the Mets to sign can’t stay in the majors and Red Sox fans are pulling their hair out just thinking about John Lackey. Rich Harden and Joel Pineiro don’t
10 comments
Stickguy
4/3/2012-8:00am at 8:00 am (UTC -4)
This goes right back to the heart of the Omar philosophy (or the Jeff plan, as executed? Yet I digress…)
Why is it required that you sign a “big name” FA every year, even if the ones available make no sense (contract terms or who they are?)
TRS made an analogy yesterday about this that makes sense. It is like a 7 YO with a dollar going into the dollar general. They are spending that buck on something, no matter if they need it (or it is worth it).
Sometimes, you have to peer into the future, see all the danger signs, and go a different direction. Especially in this case.
Bay was exiting his peak years, so you odds are were paying largely for what he did somewhere else. He was not a great fit for the park. And the biggee, the team had a bunch of prospects that all profiled as 1B/LF/DH types. Why would you, in that case, clog up LF for 5 years with an older guy?
Me, I would have looked at the dismal state of the pitching, and likely gone with Panera bread for the 2 years. Was not big on Lackey (quite a few red flags there, and not on those terms). The other guys, like figgens? Classic decent player getting paid way too much simply because he was a FA and there weren’t enough to go around.
I just never thought Bay was going to be the difference maker when signed (his first couple years), so what was the point? Would a couple of veteran stop gaps to share the position, until someone (Duda!) was ready, sold that many fewer tickets?
I got no problem investing in a big $ FA, but it better be the right one, and someone that fills a gaping need and where you are paying for the prime years. Those are few and far between (Beltran would qualify when he was signed). Actually, Jose was about it lately!
MetsFan4Decades
4/3/2012-8:19am at 8:19 am (UTC -4)
So true. That money was never going to burn a hole in Omar’s pocket. Glad this FO has a different philosophy.
saltygary
4/3/2012-11:34am at 11:34 am (UTC -4)
At that point Omar was trying to plug the leaky dike with dollar bills. He was desperate. The team would have had a much better outcome if he spread it around to the pen and bench which was the obvious need after 07-08. Bit he didn’t and his butt is gone.
TRS86
4/3/2012-12:02pm at 12:02 pm (UTC -4)
That was the Mets motto, cave to fan pressure so you sell a few more tickets then figure out what to do the next year when next year gets here.
TRS86
4/3/2012-11:42am at 11:42 am (UTC -4)
Right, it goes back to what Sandy said in the beginning… Flexibility. The Mets did not have it in their finances, roster, MILB teams.
Bay is the perfect example of that, you spent almost every penny of what you have leaving you no payroll flexibility for at least 2-3 years. Then what happens when someone comes up that you desperately need? You got no money. What was the Mets biggest need that off-season? Pitching. What was the need after spending every last penny on Bay? Pitching. What did they need the next off-season? Pitching. Where was the money needed for pitching? Wrapped up in your Dollar Tree item.
oleosmirf
4/3/2012-12:38pm at 12:38 pm (UTC -4)
exactly. Now had the Mets done even a semi-decent job drafting and developing players, the team would be in much better shape.
Unfortunately the Mets weren’t willing to spend what was necessary to fund the system and instead sacrificed that for a higher payroll.
MetsFan4Decades
4/3/2012-8:22am at 8:22 am (UTC -4)
I was in the camp of liking the Bay signing. Was happy for once to see a real LF out there. Didn’t think he’d ever repeat his 40 + HR season here but certainly didn’t think he’d completely fall off a cliff.
Hindsight being 20/20 and all, I was certainly wrong about this signing. I truly believe Bay is done. It’s not even that his hard hit balls were dying on the warning track with the old dimensions at Citi – his away numbers weren’t any better.
So far this spring I’ve barely seen him lift a ball in the air and get it into the OF. I’ve seen ground balls, strike outs and walks. This is not going to be pretty seeing him fail over and over every day.
NJstuckinTX
4/3/2012-9:03am at 9:03 am (UTC -4)
I had hoped they would sign Lackey. Not that almost this entire FA class turned out to be a Shark Sandwich… But anyway, yeah, disaster.
Paul Festa
4/3/2012-11:50am at 11:50 am (UTC -4)
Nice piece.
I remember, in my mind, it came down to Bay and Holliday. Bay had big-market experience, and had proven he could hit in a pitcher’s park (PNC), before he went to Boston. Holliday’s stats were inflated by Coors Field.
It was really dumb luck that Bay ended up being as awful as he has been. It was not a bad decision to sign him.
TRS86
4/3/2012-12:01pm at 12:01 pm (UTC -4)
But the real question is why did it come down to those two? Why not look for pitching and when you did not find it then back fill and hope for a better class the following year? They did not even have enough room left in the budget to trade for an ace even if they had the talent to trade. Flexibility.