Apr 15
This morning the Mets are 6-2. This afternoon they will go for the sweep of the N.L. East Division Phillies. Now I think this qualifies as a “quick start” to the season, but more importantly. What kind of season?
Today’s question: Are these Mets for real? Are the Mets this good or (again) are the Phillies that weak? Do you think these Mets could contend?
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10 comments
Stickguy
4/15/2012-9:36am at 9:36 am (UTC -4)
are you asking if we thought (before season) they could contend, or if right now we think they can?
I’m in on both for Yes. Really was going to take a decent dose of good health, meaning guys that were important actually stay on the field, and so far they are getting that. Assuming they don’t get slaughtered with injuries to key guys again, they can stay in the race.
Will certainly help if the rest of the NL east turns out to have been overrated a bit!
I thought all along they were roughly a .500 team with the potential/talent to do better if things broke right (and 2 of them were a quick start and a DW resurgence), and the difference between .500 and a WC berth is about 1 win every 3-4 weeks.
srt
4/15/2012-9:50am at 9:50 am (UTC -4)
Following Sticks lead, I had them pegged as likely finishing last – certainly no higher than fourth, and probably no better than a. 500 team.
Now….it’s early yet, to be sure. Mets don’t have much depth right now, particularly SP. So results are going to hinge on health to a good extent. However, after watching 10 days or so into the regular season, early indications are the NL east is going to be more tightly packed then I thought.
The Phillies offense is almost non-exsistent right now.
Marlins, for all their talent, aren’t clicking as a team.
Braves have some holes that include offense and questionable SP.
Nats have looked good and they’re still missing a couple key pieces on the DL. They could very well be tough this year.
The Mets? Right now, it’s looking like to me they could compete for a WC spot. I think it’s going to come down to all hands on deck remaining healthy.
Hazmet
4/15/2012-10:14am at 10:14 am (UTC -4)
I’m in the minority of thinking in a very short time Starting Pitching depth is not going to be a problem so I don’t view depth as an issue any longer. I look at it this way: We’ve got our starting 5 now and in AAA we’ve got Harvey and Familia on the brink of being ready and Chris Young waiting in the wings for mid-year. So we’ve got our 5 and 3 plug ins if you will which I think many teams would be chomping at the bit to be in that position. This being said it all depends on health starting with Johan and his up lifting start to 2012. If he stays healthy then we don’t need to rush a kid up. But there are options to jump start the future with one of these kids now if we had to.
srt
4/15/2012-12:48pm at 12:48 pm (UTC -4)
Here’s hoping you’re right, Haz.
I’m hoping Chris Young will be ready by the time we’ll need another starter as not many teams finish the season with the 5 they start with.
Harvey could make an appearance as well, if his first half goes well.
The BP is one area I do think we’ve got some depth down there.
Stickguy
4/15/2012-12:57pm at 12:57 pm (UTC -4)
don’t snooze on Gorski. He actually looks to me like the most “finished” product 9as in, development complete) so if he keeps cruising along, he is certainly a viable mid-season call up.
Would not IMO be rushing a prospect either, and will fit my concept of keeping them down until they have completed their development checklist. Once they mastered the open items, might as well call them up.
kingman 26
4/15/2012-10:11am at 10:11 am (UTC -4)
Every real fan has to love this, but it is 5% of the season. FAR too early to get too excited–about 2012.
The Braves and Phils look very mediocre, and those who have been calling the Phils old and finished since the last out of the 2008 WS may finally be right.
But we did lose 2 of 3 to the tough young Nats. And as we have seen, bullpens can be VERY up and down, and it’s too early to really judge as we have played three teams with minimal offense.
In addition, while I love what I have seen from the starters, what if Johan goes down? He’s pitched 10 innings and people on Metsblog are calling for a contract extension!
22 runs allowed in 8 games is fantastic, but we have less than zero depth. If Schwinden has to replace Johan, that changes everything, as Wright’s couple days off appeared to.
But still, while the 4-5-6 spots have been pretty bad, the 1-2-3 and 7-8 spots have all been good.
To me, what we have seen from Dickey, Niese, Parnell, Wright, Tejada, Thole, and Nieuwenhuis bodes really well for the future.
If Parnell has really developed, if Tejada really can be a productive offensive player, if Niese is ready to step up, etc., with more young additions and an offseason pickup or two, we might be closer to being really good than many of us thought.
But still, as for 2012, it’s 8 games, against weak offenses, and we have to see what this team does for a lot longer to become too excited just yet.
Overall, I think the starters are for real, as are Wright and Tejada, but the jury has to remain out on the pen; I am not sure they can contend yet; and the Phils’ offense is really, really bad.
One day at a time, and considering THIS day has Hamels pitching, well, to paraphrase Ice Cube, it could be a good day.
Hazmet
4/15/2012-10:24am at 10:24 am (UTC -4)
I’m thrilled, I’m gitty at this start but it’s way too soon to consider them anything more than what they are. For me that’s a team in transition. The x-factor is the rate at which the youngsters establish big league street cred and can be considered for real or not. If we’re seeing the beginning of a talent up swing early then watch out NL we can be a feisty young bunch.
As I’ve gotten older I’ve trended towards watching the teams record in 10 game increments. As in every team regardless of how good or bad are going to have certain 10 game stretches where they’re either hot going 7-3 or better or terrible going 3-7 or worse and some stretches where they’re just .500. For me this is just one 10 game stretch where they are exceeding my expectations. Ideally, this builds to 5 over .500, 10 over .500, 15 then 20 and we now what we got. So give me a couple of good 10 game exceeding runs and get to 10 over .500 and then I’ll start really believing this team could be a contender.
Stickguy
4/15/2012-12:26pm at 12:26 pm (UTC -4)
building on that, look at the season in quarters. if you are 5 games over in each 40 game block (about 6 weeks, so roughly 4-3 each week), over a full season that comes out to be about 20 games over, or 91 wins. If you can pull that off, then yes, you are looking at playoffs.
of course teams aren’t that consistent, soon 40 game of 10 over offsets another at .500. and so on.
SaltyGary
4/15/2012-1:05pm at 1:05 pm (UTC -4)
Seeing I said that they would win 68 games, I’m not going to eat my plate of crow just yet. I’m just going to stay excited about the start.
We’ve already see how different the offense is without Wright in the lineup, and the rotation is pitching extremely well. Lets see where they are at in July before we get too overboard.
gategem
4/15/2012-4:56pm at 4:56 pm (UTC -4)
I originally thought they would win between 75 to 80 games. After ST I dropped it to 70 to 75 wins but I’ve watched enough baseball to know not to make projections based on ST. So I’m back to my original estimate of 75 to 80 wins.