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Apr 16

44% Ain’t bad

The Mets have not been successful in recent years, and many attribute it to the lack of success of their farm. So far (granted the tiny sample size) the Mets have had success as a team, opening the season 6-3 and the Mets homegrown players have lead the way.

Besides Jason Bay the starting lineup is all homegrown players. The rotation is three-fifths homegrown and the only player in the bullpen right now from the farm system is Bobby Parnell. Of the current 25-man roster, 44% were developed in the Mets farm system.

With the Mets strong start has come impressive performances from many of the homegrown players on the roster. While the lineup hasn’t produced consistently yet, many individual players have had strong starts. Three hitters have on-base percentages higher than .400, those being David Wright (.615), Josh Thole (.500), Daniel Murphy (.400) and Ruben Tejada who is hovering around that number. Captain Kirk has come in playing good defense in center field and has hit a little. The two homegrown players Lucas Duda and Ike Davis who are struggling are arguably the most powerful in the lineu. Lucas Duda hasn’t hit consistently, but when he has made contact it has gone a far way with a double and three homeruns out of only seven hits. Ike Davis has struggled mightily but I will give him the benefit of the doubt because of his talent and track record.

The homegrown pitchers haven’t had as much success as their hitting counterparts. Jon Niese however, has been very good through two starts. He has nearly a strikeout an inning, a WHIP under one and a ERA just over two. Bobby Parnell through five innings has a six to one strikeout to walk ratio while only giving up one run. Both Mike Pelfrey and Dillon Gee have high strikeout rates that have been accompanied by a lot of hits and runs so far in this young season.

It is way to early to over analyze player performance. However the very early success of many homegrown players does a lot for the team and the fans. The much maligned farm system is showing the ability to produce average if not above-average major league regulars. The increased production helps the perception of the Mets minor league talent around the league. Fans are much more attached and love to see homegrown players succeed. Some fans find it hard to root for players in the free agency era because of the propensity of player movement. Whenever a team has a strong core of young talent come up from the farm system it brings a new level of energy to the team and fan base.

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72 comments

  1. Stick

    If the farm can produce a couple of stars (or at least well above average players) it will give a huge boost to building the next playoff core. We shall see if Ike and Duda (and who knows, maybe Tejada?) become those guys.’

    That, and a couple more strong SPs to anchor the staff along with Neise, and they will be set with a nucleus to supplement/build around.

  2. oleosmirf

    The problem is that the Mets do not produce high end homegrown players.

    They have a large amount of backups and marginal players, but they have yet to produce any all-star caliber homegrown players since David Wright.

    All of our young homegrown guys have yet to solidify themselves as above average MLB players although I think Niese might qualify a such now…

    1. Ceetar

      I don’t want to turn this into a ‘front office’ debate, but I think it’s interesting to note that in 2007 and 2008 the Mets were knocked for being a “Stars and scrubs” team, with not enough of the bit players. Now it seems like they’ve developed some guys in the system with less ultimate upside. (Perhaps the intention was to pair them with Reyes/Wright/Santana/Bay/Beltran as the stars and build a well rounded team)

      The stars got hurt (Santana, Reyes, Beltran, Bay), flopped (Bay) or left (Reyes Beltran) but now they have some of those high-impact pitchers coming up on the horizon.

      1. oleosmirf

        so what you’re saying is the Mets intentionally drafted safe and off the radar players not because they didn’t want to pay, but because Omar and his staff were planning the rosters 5+ years down the road and felt the team was more in need of backups and marginal players than above average players.

        Sorry, that’s ridiculous and I’m not buying it…

        1. kingman 26

          Of course it’s ridiculous. It’s far beyond ridiculous.

        2. TRS86

          I hope that is not what he would be saying. They went cheap in the draft because the owners did not value the draft. They expected Omar to hit the international markets to make up for it and then make them money with the MLB team.

          1. Stick

            I thought they were also trying to toe the Selig slot line too (with rare exceptions)?

          2. TRS86

            Oh they were that too. But there are even some that say they drafted players that they knew wouldn’t sign so they wouldn’t have to pay the bonus and they signed guys to give away those picks as well.

          3. Stick

            you mean that the wagner deal wasn’t all about getting Chris Carter back? Who knew!

  3. Prismo

    Everyone watch out – Prismo-pet-peeve time has arrived.

    I’ve heard A LOT about how so many players on the roster are “homegrown” and how cool/impressive/unique it is for that to happen. Our organization must be filled to the brim with talent!

    Here’s the TRUTH: the only reason so much of the roster is homegrown is because the Mets/Wilpons can’t AFFORD to sign enough free agents to fill out the roster. There are SEVERAL players on the roster who would be in the minor leagues for most other teams in the league.

    Yes, the team is 6-3 so one might make an argument that clearly this is a result of the high level of organizational talent the Mets have. But I think that can be attributed to both small sample size and luck at this point in the season. The FACT is that if the Wilpons had $20MM to spend on top of the current payroll, several of our homegrown players wouldn’t be on this team.

    Someone tell the Yankees they have to cut payroll to $100MM by 2014 and they’ll have a huge influx of homegrown players too. It’s necessity, not talent.

    1. Prismo

      Also, if possible, I would like to preemtively ban Ceetar from commenting on this post.

      1. Prismo

        (just kidding Ceets, have at it)

      2. Ceetar

        I think it’s a little of both. Mets maybe bring in another pitcher and Gee serves as depth in the minors. But he’s not a bad pitcher either. 5th guy and under control for a while. placeholder, etc. He’s a guy that on a pitching deep team maybe experiments in the bullpen or goes up and down a lot. But _most_ teams don’t have pitching depth like that.

        Turner didn’t have a great rookie year, and coupled with his age that suggests he’s not really going to randomly become a great player. But I think he’s an above average roving backup infielder. I think I would’ve liked to see Satin as the CI backup since we have Cedeno. But I think Turner’s fine in that role, and honestly I think he’s probably a better backup than most teams have.

        Nickeas doesn’t seem very good, and if he’s gonna not be awesome defensively..yeah. But it’s a small sample and he seems like a good clubhouse guy and really Josh Thole is young enough that he should be starting a larger majority of those games. The mets have tried a variety of backup catchers, and none of them really work out that great. There aren’t very many good catchers, never mind backups. Brian Schneider? Francisco Cervelli (or whoever the scrub they grabbed to replace him is)? At least Nickeas is young and not 41.

        But there is something to the necessity thing. Murphy and Tejada probably both deserve to play, but if the Mets had kept Reyes it would’ve make sense to trade someone. Maybe the Mets bring in Torres as the 4th OFer and keep Pagan anyway. Although it seems like they were really sure Nieuwenhuis was just about ready, and expected Torres to make it a wee bit further along.

        But that’s really it. Duda, Davis, Thole, Niese, Pelfrey are all contributing pieces that weren’t going anywhere, and weren’t eminently upgradable.

        1. Prismo

          I actually agree with most of this!

      3. Ceetar

        And what I left out is that flexibility word Alderson loves. None of these ‘necessity’ guys have proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that they suck. A high-70s win team the last two years has to take a more ‘show me’ approach here. If the Mets had won 85, maybe Alderson gambles on which guys he thinks are going to pan out and makes the move in the offseason. Now he lets them all loose, and leaves open the opportunity to upgrade later on.

        instead of giving Kuroda 10million for instance, or being forced to give a guy 2×8 to start or something, he’s trusting in Gee (and Santana) and every day that ticks by is a day closer to maybe Harvey being ready. His negotiating position only gets stronger as he’s less and less desperate for a pitcher.

    2. TRS86

      I am not so sure that is the case. I could see catcher but I can’t think that guys like Davis, Murphy, Tejada, Duda, Niese, are not ready.

      Again, even a high payroll team at times has to rebuild. See the Cubs and even the Redsox had to do it a few years back.

      So this year with Sandy at the helm and another 40M to spend what really would have changed? Reyes might still be here and Tejada would be playing 2nd with Murphy still on the team on the bench. Duda, Davis, Niese would still be playing, perhaps either Gee or Pelfrey would be gone. Parnell would still be in the pen most likely. Honestly the only guy we are really talking about here is Thole.

      1. Prismo

        Turner and Nickeas come to mind (I’m not sure if anyone is counting Nickeas as homegrown – though 95% of his minor league career was with the Mets).

        I’m not sure about Turner – he’s not particularly good at anything he does, but he’s also not terrible at anything. Either way, he’s not the type of homegrown player anyone should brag about, IMO. And Nickeas, oh boy. I think most teams would have him in single A. ;)

        That’s 8% of our roster potentially homegrown due to financial restrictions. We’ll never know for sure what the Wilpons would do if they had money, but hey…I’m just wasting time speculating on a blog.

      2. Stick

        and there really wasn’t much in the way of FA catching talent (starter, not back up) available anyway. Getting a real upgrade would like have required trading some prime pieces for a young catcher of the future type.

        1. Prismo

          There are always a lot of cruddy FA backup catchers available. Sorry, but Nickeas hit under .200 last season and is something like 0-8 (small sample size, etc) so far this year. And he failed to block two crucial wild pitches yesterday – I’m sure a lot of catchers would miss 1 or both of them too, but he’s supposed to be here for his defense. At least block ONE of them!

          1. Stick

            oh, I fully agree that they should have gotten a better (real?) back up catcher if nothing else. Other than that, I don’t really see a lot of “cheap out” issues.

            I guess they could have gone after a more experienced guy (Nix? Ankiel?) to replace baxter.

            and as Real noted below, some of it was the transition to give the young guys a shot (such as Kirk for CF).

            IMO though (and don’t tell the crazies at MMO) Sandy could have done a better job at putting together the fringes of the roster, without blowing the budget (much) or impacting the future. How it all works out remains to be seen.

        2. TRS86

          Nickeas is bad, I will give that and as I said assuming a normal year I think you see a more polished catching group. The other spots? Not so much.

          1. Prismo

            How about starting pitching? Do you think if the Mets had $20MM more to spend (heck, if they maintained payroll we could say they may have had 40-50 million!) that Gee and Pelfrey would be in the rotation?

          2. TRS86

            I addressed that below. I think one of them would be still in the rotation the other would not. Now the question is who would Sandy have spent the change on? I think that we have to consider it’s not just about the total budget with Alderson but also he’s not going to go around and waste money for fan appeasement so unless he thought that another pitcher could significantly out perform Gee and make up for the difference in cost then he was most likely standing pat.

      3. TRS86

        Turner isn’t home grown though as we picked him up from the O’s and he’s a bench player. Take a look around the league at backup IF’s. His stats last year were fine.

        1. Prismo

          Yeah sorry that was unknowledgable on my part!

          I agree he’s borderline as a backup. I have no issues with his being on the team.

          But basically it sounds like you’re saying even if the Mets could’ve spent $140MM, this $80MM team is the best they could have built. Do you really believe that, or are you drinking the Kool-Aid?

          1. TRS86

            Prismo, I think it’s more saying that IF they could have spent 140M I still don’t think Sandy would have. As I said, assuming they could spend that much you MIGHT still see Reyes but that is iffy too considering the awful contract signed but maybe they get him for cheaper earlier. You might see a SP replacing Gee or Pelfrey. You would see a new catcher. Other than that, I don’t think there would have been many changes. In other words this “80M team” would have most likely been a 110M team?

            This year was about giving some of the players in the system a chance and then see where you are after that. See what Davis, Duda, Tejada, Murphy, Thole, Niese, Kirk, and even Wright, Bay and Johan have to offer and how Harvey and the boys develop then make adjustments following the year. I think ultimately that would have been the plan regardless of the money.

          2. Prismo

            Kirk wouldn’t be here if Torres didn’t get injured.

            I think NO WAY NO HOW Pelfrey would have been offered arbitration if the team had money. Gee may have gotten a starting spot. The Mets were considering cutting Pelfrey regardless of having money to spend on someone else, imagine if they did.

          3. Prismo

            I almost want to argue against my own Pelfrey comment there. haha….

            They did spend over $5MM on the guy, which is real money. Maybe that just confuses me. So far he’s been worth it though, I guess.

          4. TRS86

            See Pelfrey is a confusing issue isn’t it? The guy’s cost and production will most likely be fine for a number 4-5 but we all wanted him to be more. Fact is looking around at who signed for what there were not many that signed for cheaper than Pelfrey that have even done what he has the last 2 years.

    3. srt

      I hear you on this but honestly….some of our FA signings haven’t been all that great either. Recently Bay and Perez come to mind. Go back a little further and we h ave Mo Vaughn, to start with.

      1. Prismo

        Oh I very much agree! I’m not saying the Mets should have signed free agents in stead of some of our borderline prospects and homegrown players, but I’m definitely saying they WOULD have done so.

        1. TRS86

          Here’s the question that I asked above. Are we sure about that ANYMORE? I don’t think Sandy is going to be the type to throw out long term contracts to non-difference making players.
          Would he have signed CJ Wilson if they had the cash? I don’t think so. Mark Buehrle? Possible until the Marlins offered him a 4 year deal. Would he have given Capuano 10M to pitch like Pelfrey and Gee? Would he have beaten one year 11M for Jackson? 1 year 10M for Kuroda?

          1. Prismo

            I think he would have:

            -Signed a bench player (cheap, probably ~$1-2 or so).
            -Signed a starting pitcher if the right deal was there (probably not Wilson or Buehrle).
            -Signed a backup catcher like Laird of Shoppach (both making under $2MM, better than Nickeas).
            -Probably would have worked out a deal with Reyes, even if it was a bad one – Sandy has spoken of the power of a homegrown player to attract fans to buy tickets. He’s not totally a “best production/dollar” guy as much as you may want to believe that.

            And yeah, we’re not talking about a $140MM payroll here – probably $110 tops.

          2. TRS86

            I agree there could have been those types of moves BUT he could have done some of those regardless of the budget and chose not to. I think he could have afforded to upgrade the catcher spot and brought in some better bench players but chose not to.

          3. Prismo

            Are we starting a Sandy hate-fest here?

            It’s rare for someone to (logically) call-out Sandy on making bad roster decisions. I’m listening.

          4. kingman 26

            Yeah, but Sandy doesn’t set payroll.

            And I doubt he would have signed Jose. That contract was insane.

          5. Prismo

            But Kingman, Alderson said the Wilpons didn’t set a payroll cap for him. What, you don’t believe him?

            *troll face*

          6. TRS86

            LOL, don’t let the MMO guys read that. I have a reputation.

            Honestly I am not sure why he chose not to. Perhaps it wasn’t choice. I guess they could have been that broke. I think we also have to consider that a lot of those fringe guys might not have wanted to come to the Mets and backup kids on a team not expected to compete. So would guys like Ankiel or Laird or Molina have came to the Mets without overpaying them?

          7. TRS86

            I agree on Reyes Kingman. Also Prismo I think to an extent there were some parameters of a budget discussed just like any team but not a hard cap. They most likely had the money to offer Jose what they considered acceptable but not the money or lack of common sense to offer Reyes what the Marlins did.

          8. kingman 26

            LOL!

            Prismo, I like Sandy, but I think there’s about the same chance that he set payroll as there is that The Core at MMO have something intelligent to say today.

          9. TRS86

            So the question remains Kingman, assuming he had an extra 20-30M to spend on this year’s team what would he have done differently?

          10. kingman 26

            That’s a great question TRS.

            If he had more to budget for the next several years, maybe he goes after Papelbon or Madsen?

            Maybe consider Buehrle and let Pelf go?

            Surely he most definitely spends something on a backup catcher. Nickeas reminds me of a poor man’s Mike DeFelice—terrible on offense and supposedly a defensive “wizard” but really not that great on defense either. Nickeas might not get a hit until June.

            And he might have considered eating a bunch of Bay’s deal to get rid of him, play Duda in LF, and make a move for an outfielder via trade.

            And probably shore up depth. Aside from Turner, our bench is atrocious IMHO.

          11. TRS86

            I thought about Buehrle but really that contract is another laugher by the Marlins. I think he would have went in the same direction with closer as he did now. It’s not like he went “cheap” on the position he just chose to sign 2/1. I obviously agree on catcher but still say he would have considered CF much more pressing than Duda in RF.

  4. wanny

    I’m as big a Ruben Tejada proponent as anyone here but in all likelihood he would still be in AAA if the Mets had kept Reyes. It wouldn’t benefit him to be platooning with Murphy.

    I would also bet that Duda would be in AAA if the Mets could afford another outfielder. He certainly could stand to learn to play the OF in the minors…

    Anyway, among the top teams in the league, what are their percentage of home growns?

    1. TRS86

      I think Tejada would be at 2B and Murphy would either be in Turner’s spot OR traded. I also think that Duda would have forced his way here either way and would either be platooning with Bay or maybe with enough cash they would have ditched Bay all together?

      1. wanny

        Your Tejada scenario seems reasonable. Certainly would make them better defensively and I am on record as saying that Tejada will surprise with the bat (Edgardo-Lite as I like to see him). Murphy would have gotten at bats at the corners and behind Tejada.

        I don’t buy the Duda scenario, though. He’s just not an outfielder. And Bay’s cash is a lot for anyone to eat.

        1. oleosmirf

          Duda’s minor league numbers would have forced them to call him up especially give how awful Bay has been.

          Now he would probably only be platooning and would be batting 6th or 7th tops, but he would certainly be here.

        2. Ceetar

          Duda had the highest OBP and SLG of any rookie last year. Every single major league team would’ve found a way to have him starting this year.

          1. kingman 26

            No they wouldn’t have.

            He’s a terrible outfielder.

            Who’d be sitting on the Cards? The Marlins?

          2. Prismo

            Agree, I think Duda was starting regardless.

            The bigger issue is – how much defense can this team sacrifice for offensive?

          3. Prismo

            Sorry, to clarify, he would have been starting for the Mets regardless, IMO.

          4. TRS86

            Good question.
            Cards?: Most likely they don’t even sign Beltran and Berkman stays in the OF with Duda at 1B. I know it’s silly to think but they may have decided to upgrade another area if Duda were on the team. For now if the team was intact the way it is now then most likely they would be hoping Beltran could play a little CF and Duda would be at 1B.
            On the Marlins? It’s possible that he would still be up and competing with Logan Morrison pending on how much faith you have in him or maybe they try moving one Stanton or Morrison to CF? Perhaps they would have traded Morrison or Sanchez to the Rays for a SP. This game is like what would have happen if Germany had not invaded Russia… LOL.

          5. Prismo

            I think the Mets would be the country of Burundi (the poorest country in the world). Or maybe they’d be the US in tons of debt, but even that seems to good for the Mets. Greece might work better.

            Actually this could be a fun game, I want to assign country counterparts for each MLB team.

            I think the Marlins are North Korea. All about putting on a big show, but when they put together this impressive looking multi-million dollar rocket and launch it into the sky, it just breaks in half and everyone laughs at them.

          6. kingman 26

            North Korea is PERFECT, especially considering how Ozzie got punished for exercising his right to free speech.

            Let’s see, Yanks? The US. Fat, greedy, and think spending more is the answer to everything.

            Royals? China. Owners make money by profiting from cheap labor.

            Rays? Japan. Thrifty, intelligent, and almost always manage to succeed.

            Orioles? England. Think they are still in the big leagues, but living off of increasingly old success.

          7. Prismo

            Hahaha amazing.

            It’s too bad the Mets are 6-3 and not 1-8. This would’ve been a perfect “I have nothing good to write about” piece.

          8. wanny

            I’m sure you’re wrong Ceetar that every team would find a place for a defensively challenged player about whom scouts are not in agreement has a sustainable major league swing.

            Kingman:

            Dodgers? France. Only the French would permit such liberal use of mayonnaise on foods like hot dogs.

            Phillies? Iran. Only Ahmadinejad could be as obnoxious as an average Philadelphian.

          9. wanny

            And while he did have a nice year offensively for the Mets last year, I am sure most talent evaluators would not rely on 301 at bats.

          10. NJstuckinTX

            I can’t tell if Houston would be the Sudan, Libya or Afghanistan. Just pure wasteland as far as the eye can see with no short term fix.

    2. kingman 26

      Yeah, without percentages of homegrowns for other teams, it’s hard to evaluate what 44% means.

      Is 11 of 25 being homegrown really that high/unusual?

      1. TRS86

        I would think not and I think it also depends on the market the team plays in.

      2. Prismo

        This is from a 2009 MLB.com piece (http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090725&content_id=6049342&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb):

        Percentage of homegrown players on each team’s 25-man roster
        AMERICAN LEAGUE

        Team Pct.
        New York Yankees 56%
        Detroit Tigers 52%
        Los Angeles Angels 52%
        Boston Red Sox 48%
        Minnesota Twins 48%
        Seattle Mariners 40%
        Oakland Athletics 36%
        Cleveland Indians 32%
        Texas Rangers 32%
        Toronto Blue Jays 32%
        Baltimore Orioles 28%
        Chicago White Sox 28%
        Tampa Bay Rays 28%
        Kansas City Royals 20%
        AL Average: 38%

        NATIONAL LEAGUE

        Team Pct.
        Colorado Rockies 64%
        San Francisco Giants 48%
        Los Angeles Dodgers 44%
        Chicago Cubs 40%
        San Diego Padres 40%
        St. Louis Cardinals 40%
        Arizona Diamondbacks 36%
        Atlanta Braves 36%
        Cincinnati Reds 36%
        Milwaukee Brewers 32%
        Philadelphia Phillies 32%
        Florida Marlins 28%
        Pittsburgh Pirates 28%
        New York Mets 20%
        Washington Nationals 20%
        Houston Astros 16%
        NL Average: 35%

        1. Daniel Stein-Sayles

          Great finding this! I do think the numbers have gone up some in the new moneyball/statistics age.

  5. TRS86

    It’s possible with Duda and RF. Thing is though he had to have a spot considering his bat and he wasn’t taking Davis’ spot or waiting on Bay to leave so I think he would have forced his way regardless.

    Something to consider is though how bad the market for corner OF was. There wasn’t much. Honestly I think there would have been a new CF with Duda still being in the OF. Maybe Coco or even taking a shot at Yoenis Cespedes?

  6. Daniel Stein-Sayles

    I quickly looked at a few teams and don’t quote me on the numbers but 11 homegrown players is a fairly average number regaurdless of the market. However the 11 number is much higher than the mets total 3-4 years ago which was 6 so that’s a pretty sizable jump.

    1. TRS86

      I just imagined that teams like Oakland and TB would have a higher percentage.

      1. Daniel Stein-Sayles

        It seems a lot of teams are around10, give or take a few. There are some exceptions, so far from what I have seen some of the teams with the highest percentages are Tampa Bay, Atlanta and Minnesota.

  7. ConnorUAF

    I think this smaller youth movement was partially caused by the financial troubles, but this net big one coming will be because of good player development. That 44% will hopefully get even higher.

    1. Daniel Stein-Sayles

      I agree, there is certainly some creedence to the point that the financial trouble leads to more young cheap farm hands to be called up. However if the minor league system is developing quality major league players than no matter the financial situation these players will have roster spots.

      1. Stick

        The Braves won a lot of games with heavily homegrown rosters for many years. As long as you are good at developing talent, to be expected.

        especially for filler parts like the bench and bullpen, might as well save the $.

  8. Stick

    I don’t actually care if they qualify as home grown or not. So what if they traded for a MiL guy and finished developing him until he “graduated{” to the majors, instead of drafting him originally?

    To me, much more telling is how many guys you promote out of your MiL system onto the team.

    so using this logic, I would not really differentiate between Harvey and Wheeler if they are both up in a couple of years. Ditto if they trade a draftee for another MiL guy. Same difference to me!

    1. srt

      Agree, stick. And I’m really hoping that Sandy pulls a rabbit out of a hat and finds a legitmate catching prospect from somewhere.

  9. Daniel Stein-Sayles

    May start moving Ike into the productive category if the last two days hitting continues!

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