In a game in which sample size is the king, do we now have a large enough sample to consider Dickey one of the elite pitchers in the game? I know it feels strange and maybe even a little dirty to consider a knuckle ball thrower as one of the upper echelon pitchers. However, looking back at the last 3 seasons one could make the case that Dickey has not only been a front of the rotation pitcher but even an ace.
Obviously the question arises, what defines an ace? Of course in my mind there is a difference in an upper rotation starter and an ace. Not all teams have an ace, the Mets went into last season without an ace (especially considering Pelfrey was the opening day starter). Is it a 20 game winner? Those don’t exist really that much anymore so you are talking about aces being only 1 or 2 pitchers in baseball. Over the last three seasons the top wins totals are 42, 42, 40 (Halladay, Verlander, Sabathia) as the only guys that could have averaged 20 win seasons and that is with a 2 game boost from this season. Are they guys that have an under 3.00 ERA? That applies to only 7 pitchers over the last 3 seasons, RA misses the cut by having a 3.05 ERA or in other words one bad start. RA comes in 10th with a minimum of 375 innings pitched over the last 3 seasons. Behind these guys, Halladay, Kershaw, Weaver, Lee, Verlander, Hernandez, Hamels, Cain, and Hudson. That is a pretty impressive list. What is even more impressive is who is behind him on that list: Wison, Oswalt, Sabathia, Price, Lincecum, Latos, Carpenter, Lester, and a host of other “top of the rotation” guys.
I also think an ace is supposed to keep his team in the game even when he doesn’t have his best stuff. This certainly applies to RA who holds the Majors’ longest streak of quality starts at 14 consecutive starts. Is the quality start a great way to judge a pitcher? Hardly considering you can pitch to a 4.50 ERA and still net a quality start. However, I think it’s a great way to judge consistency. Currently Dickey’s streak also ranks him 3rd among all-time Mets behind only Doc and Tom. Dickey’s 22 QS last year would have tied him with CC Sabathia. Again, I am not saying quality starts makes you an ace but most “aces” are quality start guys.
Maybe an ace also pitches to the situation? Dickey’s ERA last year with 0-2 runs of support? 2.43 with a .229 BA against. Maybe it’s the fact that he held the Braves, Phillies, Yankees, and all inter-league opponents to under .200 BA against?
I think ultimately it’s the confidence the fan-base feels when he is on the mound. Where would that put RA in your rankings?
38 comments
Ceetar
4/16/2012-9:55am at 9:55 am (UTC -4)
I’ve considered Dickey an Ace since about June last year when he’d garnered enough of a 2011 sample size to prove that 2010 wasn’t a fluke, and weathered a rough April and battled injuries in the process.
TRS86
4/16/2012-10:00am at 10:00 am (UTC -4)
No offense Ceetar but of course YOU have…. LOL.
kingman 26
4/16/2012-10:58am at 10:58 am (UTC -4)
LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!
srt
4/16/2012-10:21am at 10:21 am (UTC -4)
I’m a little confused…..
You’re looking at RA’s last 3 seasons?
For the ML level that would include all of 2011, most of 2010 and about 64 innings pitched for MIN in 2009?
Or is this just the time with the Mets and the 3 years includes his 2 starts this year?
The 375 innings pitched over the last 3 years, coupled with the 14 straight QS is impressive.
I see you included the 3.05 ERA. What’s his WHIP average though?
If I’m looking at this correctly (assuming you’re counting only his time with the Mets):
2010 (ML starts only) = 1.19
2011 = 1.23
2012 so far = 1.46
IMO, it’s too early to call this. For sure I’d call him a top of the rotation type pitcher. But an ace? Unless you’re really special, usually it takes more than 2 seasons for that label to be applied.
TRS86
4/16/2012-10:27am at 10:27 am (UTC -4)
I am counting the 2010, 2011, 2012 seasons. Obviously this one has just started.
However, I would imagine that 375 innings is a decent enough sample size and the fact he ranks in the top 10 in ERA over that span is impressive. Yes his WHIP is not among the elite. However, with a knuckle ball pitcher I think that is not as important as the bottom line ERA.
NJstuckinTX
4/16/2012-10:31am at 10:31 am (UTC -4)
Not an ace, no. But certainly close to it. Maybe it’s the knuckle thing that keeps me from saying he’s an ace. His numbers have been very good.
I guess I could sum it up as this: I always know we have a shot to win with him on the mound, but I don’t expect a win with him on the mound. With CC or Verlander or Kershaw, you expect a win.
TRS86
4/16/2012-10:35am at 10:35 am (UTC -4)
I think the reason you expect a win with CC or Verlander has more to do with their run support. Kershaw not so much and it’s certainly impressive how many wins he gets for a mediocre team.
I guess for me I can’t say that I ever EXPECT the Mets to win right now LOL. But I feel that Dickey gives the Mets a shot to win every night and that’s not something we have felt for too many Mets pitchers in the last decade.
NJstuckinTX
4/16/2012-10:39am at 10:39 am (UTC -4)
Not necessarily. I expect Kershaw or Verlander or CC to pitch lights out and give up a run (maybe 2 at most). I expect them to win because they have the ability to just dominate a game. Much like Santana of olden days.
TRS86
4/16/2012-11:44am at 11:44 am (UTC -4)
Thing is over that span you could say that Dickey out-pitched CC.
NJstuckinTX
4/16/2012-11:53am at 11:53 am (UTC -4)
so cross off CC and put in Halladay. Same general principle applies.
TRS86
4/16/2012-11:58am at 11:58 am (UTC -4)
I agree NJTX so where do you draw the line? That is what I am saying? How many “aces” are there in baseball? If it is the top 10 then you could make a case that Dickey is in it.
NJstuckinTX
4/16/2012-12:26pm at 12:26 pm (UTC -4)
I draw the line right above Dickey.
;P
TRS86
4/16/2012-12:28pm at 12:28 pm (UTC -4)
LOL, ok so let me ask you this. Who are your Ace’s in today’s game?
NJstuckinTX
4/16/2012-12:57pm at 12:57 pm (UTC -4)
Currently, I’d have to role with this:
Halladay,
Kershaw,
Weaver,
Lee,
Verlander,
Hernandez,
Haren,
Lincy, Cain, CC, Price, Lester, JJ and some others are the next tier down, which is where Dickey may reside.
So, I’d say 7 true “Aces”.
TRS86
4/16/2012-1:07pm at 1:07 pm (UTC -4)
Not a bad list but I could not include Haren on that list. He’s had a 3.61 ERA over that span, obviously 2010 inflated the numbers… or did 2011 deflate the numbers. LOL.
ConnorUAF
4/16/2012-3:06pm at 3:06 pm (UTC -4)
Mike Francesa said on his show that he considers Clayton Ketshaw a two or three starter. He is so dumb.
Stick
4/16/2012-3:37pm at 3:37 pm (UTC -4)
You are wise beyond your years weedhopper.
Stick
4/16/2012-10:46am at 10:46 am (UTC -4)
I’ll give it to him by a narrow margin. And IMO it is partly the numbers, but also the subjective compenent (aura, expectations, mystique, etc.).
But even if you think he misses, he is a damned fine top of the rotation starter. If the Mets had 3 other guys that could do close to what he does, they would be in fine shape.
NJstuckinTX
4/16/2012-10:49am at 10:49 am (UTC -4)
Agreed that he’s a fine pitcher for sure. I wonder if the “extend Dickey” conversations have started and if they chuckle every time they say that.
Stick
4/16/2012-11:28am at 11:28 am (UTC -4)
is he inked for next eyar? If not, hopefully they do work out another deal. Maybe rolling 1+an option?
srt
4/16/2012-11:32am at 11:32 am (UTC -4)
If I’m not mistaken, he’s got a 2 year contract. 2012 and 2013 right now.
Ceetar
4/16/2012-11:54am at 11:54 am (UTC -4)
2011-2012 with a 2013 option, but there are rumors about an extension. (and it’s not spam)
kingman 26
4/16/2012-10:59am at 10:59 am (UTC -4)
This is an outstanding and eye-opening piece.
Really good use of stats, and your case here is a pretty darn strong one.
Nice work.
srt
4/16/2012-11:37am at 11:37 am (UTC -4)
Agree. This is one of the reason that makes this site a must read. Alone with the usual that every Mets blog carries, we’ve got a fair size of original type posts that often lead to debates among us Met fans. One of my favorite things…..
ConnorUAF
4/16/2012-11:17am at 11:17 am (UTC -4)
Wouldn’t quite call him an ace. An ace is an intimidating figure who teams are scared of facing. An ace is also someone who goes deep into games and dominates.
Dickey is not an ace, he just pitches so consistently that we are fooled into thinking that.
TRS86
4/16/2012-11:52am at 11:52 am (UTC -4)
That’s true about being an intimidating figure but if stats are correct Dickey is not someone players want to face anymore than CC. I think the impact of how it throws hitters off for multiple games after he pitches is something to be considered.
Going deep into games and dominates I guess is another subjective point. It’s not like Dickey is a 6th inning pitcher. He has consistently averaged over 6.5 innings per start and I think a little more than Lincecum and about the same as Cain.
ConnorUAF
4/16/2012-12:47pm at 12:47 pm (UTC -4)
He is definitely not the conventional ace if he is one. That helps him because as you say, he does throw hitters off.
Ceetar
4/16/2012-11:57am at 11:57 am (UTC -4)
Hmm…
I wonder if you asked major leaguers who they’d rather face, Halladay or Dickey…
TRS86
4/16/2012-12:01pm at 12:01 pm (UTC -4)
I think that one is easy but I am not so sure that applies to Hamels vs Dickey or Lincecum/Cain vs Dickey?
Prismo
4/16/2012-11:47am at 11:47 am (UTC -4)
Nice piece TRS. I don’t know if I would consider him an ace or not, but I would certainly consider giving him a contract extension. (and by consider, I mean I would freakin’ give the man a contract extension)
TRS86
4/16/2012-11:54am at 11:54 am (UTC -4)
I think there are two moves that could make the Mets fans take a breath.
Go ahead and pick up Wright and Dickey’s options for next year and let the public know you are working on contract extensions.
Stick
4/16/2012-11:59am at 11:59 am (UTC -4)
I could see them picking up the dickey option and just adding one on for 2014 instead? Kind of a rolling 1 year + option deal.
and Wright has made exercising the 2013 option a no brainer (if it wasn’t already), but really no reason to do it until they need to if they are working on the extension.
I am now good with talking extension now, if it is reasonable length. something like 3 years added on + an option year, making it 5 guaranteed (including this season).
TRS86
4/16/2012-12:04pm at 12:04 pm (UTC -4)
I do have a question. If the Mets pick up the option now does it still go away if he is traded?
Regardless I would want the Dickey extension to basically be next year and 2 more to follow at similar rates to now. That should be good enough, it’s not like the team is suddenly not going to need him even if Generation L is not enough.
I think however, with the team playing well you could garner a little bit more fan interest if in name you go ahead and pick up those options even if they are “no brainers”.
Stick
4/16/2012-12:08pm at 12:08 pm (UTC -4)
not sure on Wright, but I seem to recall that they can’t do that (IOW, he could still void the option if traded before some time after the season).
Though right now, I can’t see any scenario where they would trade him mid-year.
kingman 26
4/16/2012-12:08pm at 12:08 pm (UTC -4)
Good question, but I would imagine that once the option is picked up it is permanent. Seems like it would have to be.
Anyway, if he keeps playing like this, there is zero chance he goes anywhere.
saltygary
4/16/2012-12:11pm at 12:11 pm (UTC -4)
They cannot pick up the option now and keep it in place if he was traded during this season. At the end of the season can can exercise it and then trade him.
Prismo
4/16/2012-3:36pm at 3:36 pm (UTC -4)
Extend Wright.
wanny
4/16/2012-3:32pm at 3:32 pm (UTC -4)
A compelling argument that he’s pitched like an ace. But “considering” him an ace is something different. And I think the difference between considering him an ace despite his production is the relative unpredictability of a knuckleballer.
His numbers with Kershaw’s curve ball… no brainer.
An interesting discussion.
The other aspect is his age. Keep in mind one of the things that work in his favor is that he throws enough of a fastball to serve as a change of speed. As the fastball slows down, he becomes a one pitch pony.